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ESTIMATING PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER
OUTPUT UNDER VARIANCE OF
IRRADIANCE LEVEL
Haryo Agung Wibowo
Auckland University of Technology
Email: disiniharyo@yahoo.com
WHAT IS SOLAR ENERGY
• It is the largest sources of energy received on
Earth
• Solar is a renewable sources of energy
• Solar power would be a lot safer for the
environment and a lot better for the health
people
GENERATING ELECTRICITY
FROM SOLAR ENERGY
• Use semiconductor medium to convert sunlight
into electricity
Crystalline
Material
Thin Film Cell
Organic and
Polymer Cell
GENERATING ELECTRICITY
FROM SOLAR ENERGY
• Convert sunlight into DC voltage electricity
DC/AC Converter
+
-
HOW DOES PV WORK?
• Photon of sunlight help excite an electron in
semiconductor crossing a higher conduction
band, leave electron – hole pair
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
Electric Field
Load
HOW DOES PV WORK?
-
-
-
-
-
+
• Junction with higher concentration of electron
become negative pole
• Electric field are created between positive and
negative junction
+
+
+
+
Electric Field
Load
• If external pathway is provided, electron will be
swept away to the circuit. In macro view it was
appeared as electric current
HOW DOES PV WORK?
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
Electric Field
Load
ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM
• It converts solar energy directly into electrical
energy without going through thermal-
mechanical link. It has no wear and tear part
• Solar PV system are reliable, modular, durable
and generally maintenance free
ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM
• These system are quiet, compatible with almost
all environments, expected life span for 20 years
or more
Snowy, High Altitude Site
Desert Climate
ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM
• It can be located at the place of use and hence no
distribution network is required
DISADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM
• At present the cost of solar cell are still high,
making them economically uncompetitive with
other conventional power sources
$0.00
$1,000.00
$2,000.00
$3,000.00
$4,000.00
$5,000.00
Conventional Coal Combined Cycle
Gas Plant
Geothermal Nuclear Wind Solar
Price/kW
DISADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM
• As solar energy produced only in the daylight time, an
energy storage is needed to make electricity available on
demand which make the whole system more expensive.
DISADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM
• The efficiency of commercially available solar
cells are low
• Large number of solar cell area are required to
generate power on utilities scale
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Wind Turbine Monocrystalline Polycrsytalline Thin Film Polymer Cell
PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION
• How large the solar cell area is required to
deliver particular energy amount?
The answer depends on a number of locality
factor:
1. Solar irradiance
2.Temperature
3.Dust deposition density
4.Manufacture mismatch tolerances
5.Inverter efficiency
6.Spectral distribution
PRIMARY CONCERN
• To know how large does PV size should be, we
need to know exactly how does power output
behave as a function of solar irradiance
CAN IT AFFECT POWER OUTPUT?
• In engineering sense, yes
• As solar irradiance increase, the higher number
of photon hitting the modules.
• In micro view, it release greater number of
electron crossing the conduction band and
create more hole – electron pair
• Then higher electrical current and voltage will be
resulted
HOW TO QUANTIFY?
• We have to be familiar with:
1. Expected PV operating region
2. Typical manufacture product datasheet
PV OPERATING REGION
• PV current – voltage (I-V) curve is used a basis
to identify module circuit key parameter
Open Circuit Voltage
(Voc)
Short Circuit Current
(Isc)
PV OPERATING REGION
• To determine where the system will actually be
operating, we need to find common spot where the I-V
curve of the load and I-V curve of the PV intersect
Load I-V curve
System operating
point
PV OPERATING REGION
• We always expect to boost the power into the
maximum point
PV OPERATING REGION
• We always expect to boost the power into the
maximum point
How to do that:
1. Control the PV or load or both I-
V curve simultaneously
2. Distribution network must be
able to absorb whatever amount
of the power being generated
PV OPERATING REGION
• Given that two condition is possibly met, make sense if
we want to push the operation of PV always satisfying
maximum power point (Pmp)
First Fact To Note:
Pmp is always varying dependent
on solar irradiance value
encountered by PV
MANUFACTURE DATA SHEET
DATA SHEET IN I-V CURVE
DATA SHEET IN I-V CURVE
Isc
Voc
Vmp, Imp
1000 W/m2, 25⁰C,
1.5 AM
THE GAP
• Loosing large amount of information outlining PV maximum
power output characteristic under natural sunlight condition.
Truth Facts:
In Auckland, chance
of receiving
illumination at 990-
1010 W/m2 (STC)
are only less than
0.3% per year
That imply more
than 99% ,
irradiance will be
discovered outside
of that range
WHAT DO WE GET SO FAR?
• Accept that PV is always regulated to achieve
operation at maximum power point
• Know that manufacture will only provide PV
parameter based on STC rating
THE GAP
• Consequently, we do not know exactly how large the scale of
PV have to be implemented to meet minimum energy
demand.
• Without such essential information is available, sensibly the
most simple way to estimate the power output are using a
linearization approach.
• However, that is too risky, as this solution may produce some
degree of erroneous which affect the dimension overall system
become way too underrated or oversized
• Underrate -> expected energy outcome will never be realized
• Oversize -> the capital cost may no longer suggest PV had
competitive energy price as other renewable source
STUDY MOTIVATION
A guidance should be there to make engineer knowledgeable
about the way to use various simple approach for predicting
PV maximum power output within different irradiance value
• Not only that, they should also be advised about the degree of
error will be generated from each method compare to the real
PV output, so that necessary correction factor can be applied
accordingly to the overall PV design to obtain correct system
dimensioning.
RESEARCH GOAL
• Introduce various analytical method to predict
PV maximum power output under different
irradiance level using information suggested
under STC rating
• Test the calculation model and observe the
degree of accuracy compare to the information
provided by manufacture datasheet
• The PV product used as data sheet references is
Sharp PV ND-220E1J polycrystalline cell
STUDIED ANALYTICAL METHOD
• Six algebraic method to correct from STC to any
operating condition will be covered here:
1. Whitfield and Osterwald
2. Jones and Underwood
3. Araujo and Sanchez
4. Constant Efficiency Number
5. Constant Fill Factor
6. Variable Fill Factor
WHITFIELD AND OSTERWALD
• Due to lengthy formula should be completely
written on each analytical method, it is only
single formula will be presented here.
• One that pretty simple to use is:
max max*
2
1000 /
mG
P P
W m

VALIDATING THE METHODS
• Each model are then tested under 4 illumination level that is
referred to a standard laboratory test supplied by
manufacture (200, 400, 600, 800 W/m2)
VALIDATING THE METHODS
• The calculation result is compared to the extracted
manufacture PV output performance:
• And the deviation are measured using following equation:
VALIDATING THE METHODS
• The degree of erroneous between each method are presented
under following figure:
VALIDATING THE METHODS
• All method return good
result with <5% error
margin in the region close
to 800 W/m2
• As the irradiance drop,
deviation is amplified
• Whitfield and Osterwald,
Variable Fill Factor method
yield + 10% error when
400W/m2 is given as an
input
VALIDATING THE METHODS
• Best technique shown least
error (<10%) can be derived
from Araujo and Sanchez
method.
• The worst performance is
achieved by Variable Fill
Factor method because
variance of Voc are not
taken into account in the
formula
• It should be anticipated that
the error may become
worse as high as >10% at
irradiance <200 W/m2
ANOTHER FACTSHEET
• From New Zealand National Institute of Water and
Atmospheric Research (NIWA) statistic it is interestingly
revealed that around 82% global irradiance received in
Auckland was found by less than 400W/m2
. It is equivalent
with 32% of solar energy captured on PV surface every year.
• From that, the error prediction on PV annual energy
yield, calculated from constant efficiency/Whitfield &
Osterwald/ Variable Fill Factor method by not taking
appropriate error correction measure, is around
32% x 10% = 3.2%
SUMMARY
• Error cannot be avoided when predicting photovoltaic power
output using analytical method
• It has been shown that method proposed by Araujo and
Sanchez has a good proximity with real PV characteristic
represented in this case by Sharp ND-220E1J product
• To the existing available analytic method, the degree of
accuracy need to be improved particularly for prediction PV
power output under low irradiance regime
END OF PRESENTATION

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Estimating photovoltaic power output under various irradiance level

  • 1. ESTIMATING PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER OUTPUT UNDER VARIANCE OF IRRADIANCE LEVEL Haryo Agung Wibowo Auckland University of Technology Email: disiniharyo@yahoo.com
  • 2. WHAT IS SOLAR ENERGY • It is the largest sources of energy received on Earth • Solar is a renewable sources of energy • Solar power would be a lot safer for the environment and a lot better for the health people
  • 3. GENERATING ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR ENERGY • Use semiconductor medium to convert sunlight into electricity Crystalline Material Thin Film Cell Organic and Polymer Cell
  • 4. GENERATING ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR ENERGY • Convert sunlight into DC voltage electricity DC/AC Converter + -
  • 5. HOW DOES PV WORK? • Photon of sunlight help excite an electron in semiconductor crossing a higher conduction band, leave electron – hole pair - - - - - + + + + + Electric Field Load
  • 6. HOW DOES PV WORK? - - - - - + • Junction with higher concentration of electron become negative pole • Electric field are created between positive and negative junction + + + + Electric Field Load
  • 7. • If external pathway is provided, electron will be swept away to the circuit. In macro view it was appeared as electric current HOW DOES PV WORK? - - - - - + + + + + Electric Field Load
  • 8. ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM • It converts solar energy directly into electrical energy without going through thermal- mechanical link. It has no wear and tear part • Solar PV system are reliable, modular, durable and generally maintenance free
  • 9. ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM • These system are quiet, compatible with almost all environments, expected life span for 20 years or more Snowy, High Altitude Site Desert Climate
  • 10. ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM • It can be located at the place of use and hence no distribution network is required
  • 11. DISADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM • At present the cost of solar cell are still high, making them economically uncompetitive with other conventional power sources $0.00 $1,000.00 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $5,000.00 Conventional Coal Combined Cycle Gas Plant Geothermal Nuclear Wind Solar Price/kW
  • 12. DISADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM • As solar energy produced only in the daylight time, an energy storage is needed to make electricity available on demand which make the whole system more expensive.
  • 13. DISADVANTAGES OF SOLAR PV SYSTEM • The efficiency of commercially available solar cells are low • Large number of solar cell area are required to generate power on utilities scale 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Wind Turbine Monocrystalline Polycrsytalline Thin Film Polymer Cell
  • 14. PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION • How large the solar cell area is required to deliver particular energy amount? The answer depends on a number of locality factor: 1. Solar irradiance 2.Temperature 3.Dust deposition density 4.Manufacture mismatch tolerances 5.Inverter efficiency 6.Spectral distribution
  • 15. PRIMARY CONCERN • To know how large does PV size should be, we need to know exactly how does power output behave as a function of solar irradiance
  • 16. CAN IT AFFECT POWER OUTPUT? • In engineering sense, yes • As solar irradiance increase, the higher number of photon hitting the modules. • In micro view, it release greater number of electron crossing the conduction band and create more hole – electron pair • Then higher electrical current and voltage will be resulted
  • 17. HOW TO QUANTIFY? • We have to be familiar with: 1. Expected PV operating region 2. Typical manufacture product datasheet
  • 18. PV OPERATING REGION • PV current – voltage (I-V) curve is used a basis to identify module circuit key parameter Open Circuit Voltage (Voc) Short Circuit Current (Isc)
  • 19. PV OPERATING REGION • To determine where the system will actually be operating, we need to find common spot where the I-V curve of the load and I-V curve of the PV intersect Load I-V curve System operating point
  • 20. PV OPERATING REGION • We always expect to boost the power into the maximum point
  • 21. PV OPERATING REGION • We always expect to boost the power into the maximum point How to do that: 1. Control the PV or load or both I- V curve simultaneously 2. Distribution network must be able to absorb whatever amount of the power being generated
  • 22. PV OPERATING REGION • Given that two condition is possibly met, make sense if we want to push the operation of PV always satisfying maximum power point (Pmp) First Fact To Note: Pmp is always varying dependent on solar irradiance value encountered by PV
  • 24. DATA SHEET IN I-V CURVE
  • 25. DATA SHEET IN I-V CURVE Isc Voc Vmp, Imp 1000 W/m2, 25⁰C, 1.5 AM
  • 26. THE GAP • Loosing large amount of information outlining PV maximum power output characteristic under natural sunlight condition. Truth Facts: In Auckland, chance of receiving illumination at 990- 1010 W/m2 (STC) are only less than 0.3% per year That imply more than 99% , irradiance will be discovered outside of that range
  • 27. WHAT DO WE GET SO FAR? • Accept that PV is always regulated to achieve operation at maximum power point • Know that manufacture will only provide PV parameter based on STC rating
  • 28. THE GAP • Consequently, we do not know exactly how large the scale of PV have to be implemented to meet minimum energy demand. • Without such essential information is available, sensibly the most simple way to estimate the power output are using a linearization approach. • However, that is too risky, as this solution may produce some degree of erroneous which affect the dimension overall system become way too underrated or oversized • Underrate -> expected energy outcome will never be realized • Oversize -> the capital cost may no longer suggest PV had competitive energy price as other renewable source
  • 29. STUDY MOTIVATION A guidance should be there to make engineer knowledgeable about the way to use various simple approach for predicting PV maximum power output within different irradiance value • Not only that, they should also be advised about the degree of error will be generated from each method compare to the real PV output, so that necessary correction factor can be applied accordingly to the overall PV design to obtain correct system dimensioning.
  • 30. RESEARCH GOAL • Introduce various analytical method to predict PV maximum power output under different irradiance level using information suggested under STC rating • Test the calculation model and observe the degree of accuracy compare to the information provided by manufacture datasheet • The PV product used as data sheet references is Sharp PV ND-220E1J polycrystalline cell
  • 31. STUDIED ANALYTICAL METHOD • Six algebraic method to correct from STC to any operating condition will be covered here: 1. Whitfield and Osterwald 2. Jones and Underwood 3. Araujo and Sanchez 4. Constant Efficiency Number 5. Constant Fill Factor 6. Variable Fill Factor
  • 32. WHITFIELD AND OSTERWALD • Due to lengthy formula should be completely written on each analytical method, it is only single formula will be presented here. • One that pretty simple to use is: max max* 2 1000 / mG P P W m 
  • 33. VALIDATING THE METHODS • Each model are then tested under 4 illumination level that is referred to a standard laboratory test supplied by manufacture (200, 400, 600, 800 W/m2)
  • 34. VALIDATING THE METHODS • The calculation result is compared to the extracted manufacture PV output performance: • And the deviation are measured using following equation:
  • 35. VALIDATING THE METHODS • The degree of erroneous between each method are presented under following figure:
  • 36. VALIDATING THE METHODS • All method return good result with <5% error margin in the region close to 800 W/m2 • As the irradiance drop, deviation is amplified • Whitfield and Osterwald, Variable Fill Factor method yield + 10% error when 400W/m2 is given as an input
  • 37. VALIDATING THE METHODS • Best technique shown least error (<10%) can be derived from Araujo and Sanchez method. • The worst performance is achieved by Variable Fill Factor method because variance of Voc are not taken into account in the formula • It should be anticipated that the error may become worse as high as >10% at irradiance <200 W/m2
  • 38. ANOTHER FACTSHEET • From New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) statistic it is interestingly revealed that around 82% global irradiance received in Auckland was found by less than 400W/m2 . It is equivalent with 32% of solar energy captured on PV surface every year. • From that, the error prediction on PV annual energy yield, calculated from constant efficiency/Whitfield & Osterwald/ Variable Fill Factor method by not taking appropriate error correction measure, is around 32% x 10% = 3.2%
  • 39. SUMMARY • Error cannot be avoided when predicting photovoltaic power output using analytical method • It has been shown that method proposed by Araujo and Sanchez has a good proximity with real PV characteristic represented in this case by Sharp ND-220E1J product • To the existing available analytic method, the degree of accuracy need to be improved particularly for prediction PV power output under low irradiance regime