Connectivity levels of autonomy by Steve Surhigh
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Webinar on Key Areas of Connectivity Focus at Various Levels of Autonomous Driving by Stephen Surhigh, Vice President & General Manager, Cloud Services at HARMAN International
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Connectivity levels of autonomy by Steve Surhigh
- 1. July 31, 2018 Key Areas of Connectivity Focus at Various Levels of Autonomous Driving
- 2. Agenda 1. Disruptive automotive trends 2. Road to autonomous driving 3. Technologies for connected vehicles 4. HARMAN’s viewpoint on Key areas of Connectivity focus at Various levels of Autonomous Driving Connectivity and Autonomous Driving:
- 3. Data is the Heart of the Connected Vehicle Disruptive Automotive Trends: what the vehicle knows about itself and the world around it; what the occupants do inside and outside the vehicle to create a better user experience, introduce new features, spawn new business models, and generate/shift revenue. These services rely on a cloud-based infrastructure to support communication with the vehicle. Cloud Services, Data & Security By using Cloud and Edge Computing much can be learned about:
- 4. Mobility Services are Changing Vehicle Needs *Source: Mckinsey Disruptive Trends 2030 Report 2030 A solution for each specific purpose Business Commuting to work Leisure Shopping Vacation Business Leisure Vacation Commuting to work Shopping Today One vehicle for every trip purpose Avg. share of annual driving time
- 5. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Autonomous Functions Are Reprioritizing Technologies Disruptive Automotive Trends: Autonomous vehicles will disrupt the in-vehicle experience. $10 Billion Annual industry revenues from ADAS & Autonomous technologies by 2020, with 14 brands announcing plans to introduce Level ¾ autonomy • Cloud connectivity enables autonomous vehicle functions can be developed and deployed more quickly, and managed more effectively. • Increased vehicle autonomy results in greater infotainment requirements for occupants. • Machine Learning is providing critical software components to support autonomous features. • Needs of navigational services are completely changing.
- 6. POLL QUESTION In your opinion, what year will autonomous vehicles be the majority of vehicles on the road? o 2025 o 2040 o 2070 o 2090
- 7. Autonomous Vehicle Development The Road to Autonomous Driving: 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 • 2017 - First State (California) to Sell Autonomous Vehicles • 2018 - Google to sell Autonomous Car • 2018 – Audi A8 with self-drive technology introduced • 9% of cars will be Level 2 in Autonomy • BMW, Volvo and Nissan to sell Autonomous Vehicles • 2025 – Ford to sell Autonomous Vehicles • Autonomous cars will be an $87 billion business • 2035 - 25% of new car market is autonomous; • 12 million fully autonomous & 18 million partially autonomous vehicles sold per year • 50% of vehicles on the road to be Autonomous • 75% of vehicles on the road to be Autonomous • 95% of vehicles on the road to be Autonomous • Autonomous cars get their own “hyperlane” to travel at faster speeds Sources: IHS, Lux Research, Mercedes-Benz, GM News, Automotive News, Strategy Analytics, Nissan News, Navigant Research, Volvo News, Fehr & Peers 0% .05% 25% 50% 65% 75% 95%
- 8. POLL QUESTION Would you feel safe traveling in an Autonomous Vehicle today? o Yes o No o Don’t know
- 9. Autonomous Driving 40,100 94% of crashes are caused by human error road fatalities in US in 2017 Data reported by NHTSA 32% of deaths related to drunk-impaired driving (2016) 31% of deaths related to speed driving (2017) 16% of deaths related to distracted driving (2017) 43,510 42,708 41,259 37,423 33,883 32,999 32,479 33,561 32,719 32,675 35,092 40,200 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US traffic deaths (NHTSA, *NSC) 2017 40,100
- 10. The ideal support for the autonomous driver The Harman Approach Trusted Transparent Humanized Fluid
- 11. How Consumer Demands Change as We Move Ahead TRUSTED TRANSPARENT HUMANIZED FLUID The vehicle alerts me of threats The vehicle helps me avoid threats The vehicle avoids the threats it can and alerts me when it needs help The vehicle avoids threats The vehicle avoids threats The vehicle clearly shows me which assistant features are available on The vehicle clearly shows me which assistant features are available on The vehicle shows me what it sees and what it is planning on doing The vehicle shows me what it is planning The vehicle lets me know it is aware of events The vehicle is my assistant The vehicle is my co-pilot I am the vehicle's co-pilot The vehicle is the pilot but I can takeover if necessary The vehicle is the pilot I carry my personal UX preferences to the vehicle I give the vehicle guidance The vehicle drives like me I can adjust the vehicle's behavior to my liking I can alert the vehicle if I want to adjust the route or behavior Shift from Level 1 to Level 5
- 12. Source: KPMG (2015) Connected And Autonomous Vehicles Technology Roadmap 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2030+ Blind spot monitoring Lane Departure warning Lane Keep Assist Intersection Pilot Intelligent speed adoption Autonomous emergency braking Cruise control Adaptive Cruise Control Traffic Jam Assist Highway Autopilot Park Assist ( steering only) Valet park Assist Emergency Driver Assistant L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 Complete end-to- end journey Certain scenarios Ex: Remote parking, urban automated driving Autonomy Level Timeline Vehicle to Vehicle, Vehicle to Device and Vehicle to Infrastructure Communication 3D Cloud based Navigation Safety Connectivity Autonomy
- 13. In-Vehicle Hardware & software Technology Roadmap Deep Dive Technology categories In-vehicle hardware In-vehicle software Control systems Control systems and computing e.g., Passive components, architecture Control systems e.g., critical event control, decision algorithms Sensing Sensor-supporting e.g., actuators Sensing & local mapping e.g., cameras, LIDAR, radar, GPS receivers Mapping & path planning e.g., machine vision, digital image processing Localization & mapping Connectivity Connectivity e.g., embedded modems, DSRC module Connectivity e.g., data processing, communication protocols Cybersecurity Assumed that this will not require dedicated hardware but will run on existing hardware Data security e.g., encryption, intrusion detection and prevention Human factors Human-machine Interface related to safety, e.g., internal sensors Human-machine Interface software
- 14. Areas of focus for Autonomous Vehicles Technologies for Connected Vehicles: Vehicle Operations In-vehicle Content Vehicle Communication With Ecosystem
- 15. Future Technologies for the In-Vehicle Experience Technologies for Connected Vehicles: Big Data Contextual Virtual Assistants VR / AR & Intelligence Augmentation
- 16. Future Technologies for the In-Vehicle Experience Technologies for Connected Vehicles: Deep / Machine Learning Connectivity 5G & BeyondTrusted Collaboration
- 17. 5G Delivers more Bandwidth for more Functions FIXED DISTANCECALLING GSM INTERNET ON MOVE 3G INTERNET ON MOVE 4G CLOUD ON MOVE 1960s 1980s 1990 2000 2010 2020 5G HOT SPOT IN CARS Computers Desk/Laptops Internet Smart Phone Drive Autonomy 5G increases data transfer rates to 20 Gigabits per second and multi-input/multi- output technology to enable massive data transfers and V2X communication
- 18. Preparing data for Autonomy with Closed loop map and real-time environment modelling Massive Upload for Real-time modelling of Environment High Definition Maps High Definition Mapping Technologies for Connected Vehicles: In-Car Augmented and Virtual Reality
- 19. Autonomy changes the perception of travel to transform it to an entertainment and productivity hub High Definition Entertainment Technologies for Connected Vehicles: In-Car Augmented and Virtual Reality HD Movie in seconds
- 20. In-vehicle Experiences are Transforming Harman’s Viewpoint: HARMAN is activity engaged with many OEMs to create the next generation of in-vehicle user experience.
- 21. Focus on Contextualization Harman’s Viewpoint: Cloud connectivity and machine learning improve safety through contextual awareness of the vehicle and its surroundings.
- 22. Focus on Personalization Harman’s Viewpoint: Cloud connectivity and Machine learning create more personalized experiences for vehicle occupants.
- 23. Transforming the Experience from Generic to Unique Harman’s Viewpoint: Personalized data feeds, cloud-based digital assistants, augmented reality, big data capture/analysis are changing how drivers and passengers engage with vehicles.
- 24. Seamlessly Integrating Advanced Technologies Harman Automotive Solutions Digital Cockpit Telematics & Cybersecurity UI and UX Intelligent Cloud Automated Driving /ADAS
- 25. Contact and Follow Us How the In-Vehicle Experience Changes: Stephen Surhigh steve.surhigh@harman.com www.linkedin.com/in/stephen-surhigh-a763671/ Our Website
Editor's Notes
- Let’s look at a timeline of when some organizations are expecting Autonomous Vehicles to proliferate. 2017 – California first state to allow sales of autonomous cars 2018 – Google to sell their autonomous car Audi A8 with ‘Self-Drive’ technology 2020 – 9% of the cars will be Level 2 – Strategy Analytics BMW, Volvo and Nissan to sell their line of driverless cars 2025 - Ford to sell their line of driverless cars 2026 - 100% of the cars sold would be autonomous – Morgan Stanley 2030 – Autonomous cars would be USD 87 Billion industry – Lux Research 25% of the traffic would be autonomous vehicles – Fehr & Peers 2035 – 75% of the passenger vehicles bought would be self-driving – Navigant research 2040 – 75% of the traffic would be autonomous vehicles – IEEE 50% of the traffic would be autonomous vehicles – Fehr & Peers 2060 – 75% of the traffic would be autonomous vehicles – Fehr & Peers 2064 - Driverless cars available worldwide – Daimler 2070 – 95% of the traffic would be autonomous vehicles – Fehr & Peers
- Before jumping into the amazing stuff the team is doing, let me remind you why we are doing it. Transportation has a lot of room for improvement, and not only regarding convenience, more importantly around safety. The latest stats from the National Safety Council (NSC) for 2016 just released two weeks ago show the biggest death increase in decades, putting the number of deaths above 40,000 for the first time since 2007. It also represents the largest percentage increase since 1966. 2007 is when Apple started selling Smart Phones, Samsung followed in 2008 You notice the downward trend in road fatalities in the US, which was a result of safety systems like more Airbags, ESC and ABS penetrating fully The trend flattened and has turned upward again, mainly due to distraction by Smart Phones Elaine Cho, Secretary of Transportation and Dr. Mark R. Rosekind, NHTSA Administrator, mentions that 94% of the deaths are caused by human error. But what exactly is “human error”? Drunk driving and speeding are the main causes of deaths, each of them involved in almost 30% of the fatalities But a relatively new cause, distracted driving, can explain the dramatically increase of deaths in the last years. As the executive director of the Governors Highway Safety Association (Jonathan Adkins) mentions, “driver distraction and our society's addiction to electronic devices is likely playing a role in the increase in deaths”. To support the statement, according to NHTSA in 2015 the fatalities related to driver distraction increased by 8.8% So our focus is on developing technology that can drive better than humans!
- Before jumping into the amazing stuff the team is doing, let me remind you why we are doing it. Transportation has a lot of room for improvement, and not only regarding convenience, more importantly around safety. The latest stats from the National Safety Council (NSC) for 2016 just released two weeks ago show the biggest death increase in decades, putting the number of deaths above 40,000 for the first time since 2007. It also represents the largest percentage increase since 1966. 2007 is when Apple started selling Smart Phones, Samsung followed in 2008 You notice the downward trend in road fatalities in the US, which was a result of safety systems like more Airbags, ESC and ABS penetrating fully The trend flattened and has turned upward again, mainly due to distraction by Smart Phones Elaine Cho, Secretary of Transportation and Dr. Mark R. Rosekind, NHTSA Administrator, mentions that 94% of the deaths are caused by human error. But what exactly is “human error”? Drunk driving and speeding are the main causes of deaths, each of them involved in almost 30% of the fatalities But a relatively new cause, distracted driving, can explain the dramatically increase of deaths in the last years. As the executive director of the Governors Highway Safety Association (Jonathan Adkins) mentions, “driver distraction and our society's addiction to electronic devices is likely playing a role in the increase in deaths”. To support the statement, according to NHTSA in 2015 the fatalities related to driver distraction increased by 8.8% So our focus is on developing technology that can drive better than humans!