The Solar Tsunami

The Solar Tsunami
Guy Dauncey, June 2014

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour
than humans use in a year.

Solar energy travels at the speed of light
1,000 million kilometres an hour

Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

359 million years ago
The Carboniferous (Solar) Era

Ancient Solar Energy Solar Coal
Bye-bye, West VirginiaHello, Global Warming

Ancient Marine Plankton Solar Oil & Gas
Hello, Global Warming

As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
As we burn this ancient solar energy

we release its ancient carbon
into the atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide,
like the other greenhouse
gases, traps
HEAT
in the troposphere

After 10,000 years of relative stability
at 280 ppm, this is how dramatically
CO2 is rising in the atmosphere.

Around parts of Greenland, ocean surface temperatures rose
1.8°-3.6°F between 1990-2011.

The last time the world was
3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,
the sea level was up to
25 metres
higher.
We are currently on track for
4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

If all Earth’s polar ice melted
70 metres sea-level rise
92 metres
70 metres

The ocean is absorbing 26% of the CO2,
making it more acidic.

This is impacting all marine life
that uses calcium carbonate to build its shells

If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says,
will have consequences that will be
“disastrous,” and which will
“cause major dislocations for civilization.”
2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says,
will have consequences that will be
“disastrous,” and which will
“cause major dislocations for civilization.”

Which of us is going to raise a hand and say,
“Yes, it’s worth it”?

We need urgently to reduce the level of
carbon in the atmosphere,
as rapidly as possible.

The Age of
Firewood
The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
500,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering
Enlightenment
Two billion years
Solar Energy

Imagined Solar Home of the Future, 1958

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c

1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Price of Solar PV
per Watt
A thousandfold fall
in the price of solar PV
since 1977

100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase
since 2000
137 GW
in 2013

Cumulative installed PV will nearly double in the current
period 2013-2015

Mass production = falling prices

California’s 100% Renewable Energy Future
%
Onshore wind 25
Offshore wind 10
Wave Device 0.5
Geothermal 5
Hydroelectric 4
Tidal turbine 0.5
Res rooftop PV 8
Com/gov roof PV 6
Utility PV 26
Utility CSP 15
100

Mark Jacobson
Stanford
The Solutions Project

The higher the price of electricity,
and the sunnier the land,
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
BC, 2014: 4 kW PV System $16,000 + tax
4,400 kWh year

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
Average home electricity per year
BC home, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh
BC home, gas heated: 11,000 kWh
Future, LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh?
4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh

BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a year
Zero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95%
Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh
Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWh
Price of wind energy 10-12 cents kWh
Price of solar PV (2014) 30 cents kWh
Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh
Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff
in British Columbia

Solar Economics in BC, 2014
4 kW PV system. No feed-in tariff
12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $4
4 kW + tax $16,800
Finance @ 3%$29,300
kWh per year 4,400
25-year savings $21,900
Result -$7,400

The solar economics
of British Columbia
are among the
weakest in the world
– so everywhere else
is better.

Solar Installation costs, USA vs. Germany
Rocky Mountain Institute, 2013

“Our research suggests that as they become
cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to
consumers are poised to fall to
$2.30 (a watt) by 2015
and to $1.60 by 2020.”
The disruptive potential of solar power
McKinsey, April 2014

4 kW PV system. No Feed-in Tariff.
3% financing
Cost per watt $1.60
4 kW + tax $6,720
Finance @ 3% $9,900
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$15,800

4 kW PV system
15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 5% tax $6,720
kWh per year 4,400
Profit +$19,000

Solar Economics in Germany, 2020
4 kW PV system
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 0% tax $6,400
kWh per year 4,400
25 year profit +$32,000

To date, over 2,500 investors have used the Mosaic platform
to provide $8.5 million to finance solar projects in
California, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Arizona,
receiving 4.5% – 7% and 100% on-time payments.

20 year loan, assumes 3% annual electricity price inflation.

“Pay for power, not panels. You don’t need thousands to buy
a solar power system, you only need a good roof, because
solar panel installation is free.”

Currently installs
1 in 3 residential solar systems
in the U.S.
Also businesses, governments,
schools
Clients include eBay, Walmart,
City of Sacramento,
Los Angeles School District

The unresolved solar problem: power storage
Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCity
And CEO of Tesla…
and they are collaborating on industrial grade batteries
Tesla
Battery
Traditional
Battery

Natural gas:
5 jobs per $1 million
Solar:
14 5 jobs per $1
million
Mass Transit:
22 jobs per $1 million

$100 spent on imported oil
$70 leaves the country
$22 goes to the oil company
$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station
$100 spent on renewable energy
may circulate and be spent
10 times before it leaves the country,
creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.

Self-financing
Value for future purchasers
Reduced transmission losses
Resiliency against power outages, earthquakes
Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energy
Positive climate response when electricity is gas or coal

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
and fall in price.

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW
will lose up to $1,000 a year

Victoria:
Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Vancouver:
Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Every commercial roof could look like this,
and earn $10,000 a year

5 million residents = 2 million residences.
1 million x 4 kw = 4,400 gigawatt-hours a year.
+ Commercial and Utility PV = 7,000 Gwh a year
Future demand: 70,000 GWh
Solar PV = 10% of BC’s future demand?
BC in the
Solar Future

Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performance
= up to 100% increased yield

100% increased PV yield
due to solar reflection off the snow
December 2010
Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC
www.eco-sense.ca

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railway
Paris to Amsterdam
16,000 panels
3.4 kilometres
3,300 MWh a year

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Thin Film: average module efficiencies 13.9%
US $0.49 per watt (First Solar)
Conventional multi-crystalline PV: $0.43 per watt
average conversion efficiency 15% - 19%

Thin-film solar PV combined with solar thermal
Sydney, Australia (ARENA)

Thin-film solar PV with a solar thermal duct system. The heat
is trapped between the layers and distributed to the home.

Thin film solar combined with solar thermal heating

Four Times Square
New York
Solar PV architectural
cladding, no extra cost

For the same monthly
micro-loan repayment as
the cost of kerosene,
people in rural areas in the
developing world can
install a 50 watt solar PV
system for their lighting
needs.
www.self.org

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
Solar Freakin’ Roadways
Could they work? YES
Will they cost more than regular PV? YES
Is it likely that they will be built? NO
But 16 million people have watched the video
and 48,000 people donated $2.2 million to the cause

An average EV needs 15 kWh per 100 km
10,000 km requires 1,500 kWh a year
1.5 kW solar produces 1,650 kWh a year

1.5 kW = $6,000
5% 25 year mortgage = $35 a month
10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
2014………………

1.5 kW = $2,400
3% 25 year mortgage = $11 a month
10 litres @ $2.00 litre = $200 a month
……….2020

9% solar charging capacity from the roof

Solar hot water
on a restaurant in
Sweden
Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

Lindau Hospital, Germany

Solar hot water
on the Best Western Inn, Kelowna
www.swisssolartech.com

Globe Solar Energy, Nelson, BC

Flat plate solar thermal $5,000 to $9,000
Energy generated: 1,000 - 1,500 kwh a year
Savings @ 0.8 cents kWh = $80 - $120/year

CSIRO
China – $220 per system
Very competitive environment - 800 different systems
Direct water to kitchen, no glycol heat transfer
Total installed: 66 million square metres
Target for 2015: 115 million homes

520 Solar
thermal panels
provide water
heating to 2700
homes

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Year-Round Solar Heating

Energy Centre
Community
solar heat
panels
Solar hot water
panels

800 solar hot water panels on the garages
90% of residential space heating (40-50o
C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.

No groundwater intrusion,
so the heat accumulates over the summer.

Molten Salt: 7.5 hours after dark

• Heat storage in an underground
aquifer

100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerland
www.jenni.ch

Collective solar thermal system
on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com

Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero
100% solar district heat
Solar thermal storage, biomass cogeneration

Solar Thermal Heat Storage Tank

Solar wall heating
Whitehorse, Yukon

Gateway, Surrey
Commercial Solar Walls
St. Asaph, North Wales

Solar wall heater
in Sequim, WA

Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy

Solar Millennium AG
The Sun radiates almost 1000 times
more energy onto Earth’s deserts
than humans use.

Odeillo solar furnace, France. Built 1970
10,000 mirrors, 3000°C

Solana, Arizona
280 MW Solar Thermal + 6 hours storage

254 sq km
Global electricity use
110 sq km
European Union
www.desertec.org
High-voltage DC can transmit electricity up to 3000 km.
90% of the world’s people live within 3000 km
of the world’s deserts and arid regions

Started Himin making solar thermal components in 1990
360 internal company standards
6,300 employees
60,000 partners throughout China
Combines all production steps
Ming Huang

Solar Valley, Dezhou, China
Automated assembly line makes 40,000 tubes a day
6 vacuum tube factories
16 km of PV road lighting
Solar office and hotel complex
Solar university, 2000 students, no fees
Solar sports and entertainment complex.
Goal: to set a global example of solar
1,500-4,000 visitors a day

Solar Egg Spa Resort
Solar + Geothermal Heat

Sun-Moon Mansion
Solar Thermal Year-Round

Utopia Gardens, Solar Valley, China

504 solar tubes for central heating and cooling save up to
75% of annual energy costs.
In summer, solar field powers absorption chillers with
electric compression and gas absorption chillers.
Excess heat to seasonal storage area, 1,800 bore holes.
In winter, space heating from seasonal storage ground
source heat pumps, backed up by district heat system.

Himin Solar Valley
Solar Shell International Conference Center

70% solar energy conversion
1994 square meters solar heat collection
Solar water heating
Building integrated PV lighting
Energy-saving glass
Ceiling radiation
Intelligent sun-shading and building control

90% less energy than conventional building
Solar thermal heating and cooling
Aquifuge trans-seasonal energy storage
Ground source heat pump.

www.bcsea.org
We welcome your membership,
to help us continue our work.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
Fall
2014

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com

The Solar Tsunami

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The Solar Tsunami