21. If everyone lived like North Americans,
we'd need two more Earths
to provide the resources
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
22. CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
100 million tonnes a day
4 million tonnes an hour
67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn thetonnesfuels…
1,000 fossil a second
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
www.earthfuture.com
32. 25 metres
18 metres
The last time the
global temperature
was 3°C warmer,
the sea-level was
25 metres higher.
10 metres
2 metres
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
58. The Best Green Building Policies
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
59. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
60. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
61. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
62. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
63. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
64. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
4. On-Bill Financing for energy efficiency upgrades
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
65. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
4. On-Bill Financing for energy efficiency upgrades
5. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
66. The Best Green Building Policies
1. All existing Climate Action legislation strengthened
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings e-labeled,
zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging
1. All existing buildings must meet 50% new Code at point
of sale, and for retrofit above a certain value
2. All permitted improvement projects greater than 5,000
sq. ft. must upgrade to the new Green Building Code
3. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
4. On-Bill Financing for energy efficiency upgrades
5. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
6. Green building grants, education and technical services
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
71. Home Energy Retrofits
Most of the 2032 housing stock
will be today’s buildings
Building envelope: Reduce leaks
Heat: Switch oil/gas to solar heat pumps
Power: Add solar PV and solar hot water
Financing: Pay-As-You-Save Utility loan or
Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE)
loan, that runs with the property
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
86. Window refurbishment
6,514 windows
= 4 x more efficient
Insulated Radiative Barriers
Chiller plant
Variable speed drives
5% improvement
Air handling units
Variable air volume
Wireless Control
Network
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
92. 16" foam insulation under slab and
outside foundation walls
8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC
triple-glazed U= 0.73
Air tightness 0.6 ACH at 50 pa.
(1.6 for R2000; up to 10 older homes)
Blown cellulose insulation
Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust
heat transferred to incoming fresh air
Natural gas hot water, space heat
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
96. Passivhaus
Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed
inside
Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
97. Passive House
near St. Jacob
in Frankfurt.
“Factor 10”
Petra Genz and Folkmer Rasch
25,000
Passive Houses
In Europe
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
105. SIREWALL insulates 13.5 times more than a
concrete wall of the same thickness;
5.5 times more than a rammed earth wall.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
112. Energy Efficiency in Wall Assemblies
Tent
Earthship
Mobile Home
Basic stick-frame
Hi-end stick frame
ICF 9”
Cob 18”
Straw Bale 18”
Passive House
SIREWALL 24”
R1
R5
R10
R14
R20
R20
R10-20
R17-55
R50
R50
Meror Krayenhoff, November 2013
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
113. Zero Net Energy Housing
By 2020, every new home in California must be
zero net energy - emit no carbon
and give power back to the grid.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
114. By 2016, every new home in Britain
must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
122. The Ice-Stick pipes condense water vapor from the
air, causing the refrigerant to warm and evaporate.
As the evaporated gas moves to the compressor,
pressurization raises its temperature.
A pump sends the accumulated heat through the
building’s water system.
As the heat is dispersed the pressure falls, and the
refrigerant travels back to the evaporator to repeat
the cycle.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
131. Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
63 kW solar PV
30 kW Biomass boiler
40 kW Air source heat pump
2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps
Energy Centre on roof 20m2 solar thermal panels
135. Pre-insulated piping used to
heat most homes and
commercial buildings in
Scandinavia.
Insulation allows the delivery
of hot water at 200o C to
customers up to 15 miles
away, with a net loss of only
a few degrees.
Photo and text by Jayson Antonoff
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
136. Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
138. In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat
from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
139. District Heating Plant, Vienna
Heats 60,000 apartments using incineration
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Friedensreich Hundertwasser
140. BedZED
Sutton, London, UK
Super-efficient,
smart metered
CHP power and hot water
from local tree wastes
Space heat: 88% less
Hot water: 57% less
Electricity: 25% less
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
142. Victoria - Dockside Green
Plan: 100% heat from gasified wood-wastes
Interim reality: Heat from natural gas
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
143. Solar Thermal District Heating
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
144. 800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
145. Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre
Solar hot water
panels
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
www.earthfuture.com
Community solar
heat panels
154. Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials,
Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
158. 3 kW
$15,000 in Victoria
$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
159. Solar Economics in Victoria, BC
(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013
Cost per kW
$5,000
Cost of 3 kW system $15,000
$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300
2020
$3,000
$9,000
$12,780
kWh per year
25 years + 3% pa
3,300 kWh
$12,009
3,300 kWh
$14,768
Profit (Loss)
(-$9,291)
$1,988
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
160. Tubular hybrid solar photovoltaic panels
www.nakedenergy.co.uk
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
166. Solar hot water
on a restaurant in
Sweden
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
167. Rizhao, China
Population 3 million
99% of city centre households use solar hot water.
60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
169. The Human Journey
5,000,000
years past
5,000,000
years future
This tiny slither of time is
the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
170. If we act as wisely, two hundred Carbon
Years become the launch ramp for a
billion Solar Years…
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
171. If we act as wisely, two hundred Carbon
Years become the launch ramp for a
billion Solar Years…
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Fossil Solar
200 years
172. If we act as wisely, two hundred Carbon
Years become the launch ramp for a
billion Solar Years…
Renewable Solar
1.75 billion years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Fossil Solar
200 years
200. Water Conservation Credits
1. Builder in 2032 wants a building permit for a new
house
2. Water conserving actions in existing houses earn
conservation credits
3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing
houses, collect credits.
4. Builder must buy credits from existing owners to
qualify for building permit for new house
5. Net increase in water-use from new house = ZERO
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
243. Green Homes Outselling the Market
In 2009, Certified green homes in Seattle
made up 33% of the new home market,
sold for a 37% premium per sq ft
and were on the market for 22% less time.
In July 2009, almost 50% of new homes were
sold with a green certification.
Over 50%, and appraisers will need to discount
a home that is not green, since green will have
become the new market norm.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
244. Ten Green Future
Building Themes
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
9: Green Streets
and Neighbourhoods
267. Affordable Housing Financing
Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales
over $1 million
15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore
companies
Annual levy on expensive properties registered
offshore
Escalating land tax on empty properties
Money to a city Affordable Housing Authority
Community Housing Circles, to buy land owned by a
Community Land Trust and build housing.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com