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Brief presentation managing supply chain risks

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Brief presentation managing supply chain risks

  1. 1. Programa de Atualização Profissional Supply Chain Risk Management SCRM summary by Gláucio Bastos, M.B.A., Ch.E.
  2. 2. Programa de Atualização Profissional abstract  SCRM target: given a supply chain (SC) from the point of view of the participants, which may be the manufacturer, the purchaser, transporter, logistics provider, etc.. from historical operational data, are initially located the points where failures, delays, interruptions, defects and material losses should occur, then for correction are defined effective strategic measures considering their cost of implementation and the benefits brought, to eventually the result of SC operation monitoring with the improvements are replenished in a continuous process
  3. 3. Programa de Atualização Profissional SCRM need  even before the recent global economic recession SCs have been through increasing complexity  executives faced more extensive and intricate processes of SC in challenging environments, being forced to reach new territories in search of opportunities for cost savings and greater agility  globalization and increasing interdependence of SC increased further the level of volatility and vulnerability, with no apparent chance of standardization and exposing the company’s SCs to risks of amplified failures rarely seen until now, with wider and larger potential impact than those of recent past  uncertainty has become usual  this new environment requires a more intelligent and resilient SC (able to recover)
  4. 4. Programa de Atualização Profissional method  from the historical data of the SC, the framework automatically sets the risk model, generating a network (BN) with interdependencies between risk variables both qualitative (relationships between variables) and quantitative (probability of occurrence of the variables and calculating the value chain for each situation), which can be enhanced by the experts experience  historical data show to each SC process (e.g. each delivery of a particular product) which was the condition (state) of each occurrence (variable) – e.g. who was the carrier, there was and what was the kind of change in the order requested by the customer, what product configuration was requested, which requested destination, what kind of client, etc.
  5. 5. Programa de Atualização Profissional resumo
  6. 6. Programa de Atualização Profissional risk components  SC risks are contingencies that affect logistics operations  risk merges 02 factors:  the probability that an adverse event or a threat is realized  the impact, that is the effect or negative consequence of the adverse event
  7. 7. Programa de Atualização Profissional SCRM steps  identification of SC potential risks  assessment of risk occurrence likelihood and consequences severity  planned mitigation of risks i.e. application of countermeasures to prevent or reduce (if possible) the probability of the risk and reduce the damage / disruptions in SC  monitoring and control for continuous assessment of improvement in the SC operation after the implementation of the strategies
  8. 8. Programa de Atualização Profissional BN elements  horizontal dimension of BN – SC business processes  vertical dimension - 03 types of risk variables:  factors risk: underlying causes affecting the processes  risk events: factors consequences – e.g. delays, interruptions, defects  risk symptoms: actual occurrences of events defined for example, by measuring the time of manufacture or collection  performance measures complete the vertical dimension, quantifying the value of SC in each situation depending on the presence or absence of each symptom
  9. 9. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue description
  10. 10. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue description  consider a SC as a process of delivering a product to the customer comprising the steps:  order processing  product collecting  product shipping  product delivery
  11. 11. Programa de Atualização Profissional risk factors by business process Change_in_order (small, normal, large): order changing by client Tied_order (tied, untied): order consolidation Order_type (yes, no): abnormality caused by order type Shipment_size (yes, no): abnormality by shipment size Cust_type (yes, no): abnormality by customer type Product_family (yes, no): abnormality by product family Product_importance (yes, no): abnormality by product importance Cust_config (yes, no): abnormality by adapting the configuration required by the customer Demand_level (yes, no): abnormality by demand level Mfg_related_errors (yes, no): errors relatves to manufacturing Manuf_location (China, Mexico, unknown,USA): factory place Cust_location (yes, no): abnormality by client place
  12. 12. Programa de Atualização Profissional risk factors by business process Misroute (yes, no): lost load Carrier (yes, no): abnormality by transport characteristics Delivery_mode (yes, no): abnormality by delivery mode Holidays (yes, no): abnormality by holidays Insufficient_carrier_capacity (yes, no): abnormality by low transport capacity Other_logl_causes (yes, no): abnormality by other logistics causes Severe_weather (yes, no): abnormality by bad weather Custom_causes (yes, no): abnormality by customs causes Cust_causes (yes, no): abnormality by client reasons Customer_fulfillment (yes, no): abnormality by customer fulfillment level
  13. 13. Programa de Atualização Profissional problem approach  risk factors probability:  from historical data of SC operation, the risk factors are scored according to their probability of occurrence
  14. 14. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue approach 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Likelihood of Abnormal Risk States
  15. 15. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue approach  risk factors impact on performance measures:  is defined by simulating the occurrence of each of the possible states of the risk factors ('evidence') and calculating the total value of the SC in each of these situations  the difference between the totals of the SC for each state of a risk factor is the value of your impact on SC
  16. 16. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue description 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Mini Max Impact on Total_process_valueImpact on Total_process_value Base
  17. 17. Programa de Atualização Profissional assessment tool by merging probability and impact of each risk factor, one can trace the SC map of vulnerabilities which use depends on the degree of risk aversion of the manager:
  18. 18. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue approach Shipping_dela y Delivery_delay Logistics_dela y Cust_config S2D_Met O2D_Met O2S_Met Pick_delay Carrier Custom_cause s MFG_related_ errors MFG_delay Change_in_or der Manuf_location Other_logl_cau ses Impact Likelihood
  19. 19. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment  beyond the vulnerability map, other methods of sensitivity analysis of SC risk factors are applied to define the major or relevant risk factors to be mitigated  as a result of this analysis, the following risk factors were considered relevant:  ‘change in order’  ‘customer configuration’, and  ‘manufacturing location’  the event more relevant risk was found 'manufacturing delay‘  then to evaluate the states behavior of relevant factors was considered an evidence on the event 'manufacturing delay'
  20. 20. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment  as a result, for each of these factors the greatest variations of probabilities with and without 'manufacturing delay', were:  ‘change in order’ – ‘small changes’ state – from 65% to 75%  ‘customer configuration’ – ‘abnormal’ state – from 43% to 50%  ‘manufacturing localition’ – ‘Mexico’ state – from 44% to 53%  in short, occurring ‘manufacturing delay' these are the states of each factor most likely to have caused the risk event
  21. 21. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment
  22. 22. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment  mitigation strategy effects:  found the relevant risk factors the mitigation strategies to be applied are set, which are included in the BN applied to the nodes of those selected risk factors  then in the same way that the impact was defined for each risk factor also by calculating the difference between the total value of SC for each mitigation measure in the active state (on) and inactive (off) including its implementation cost, your benefit to SC is determined
  23. 23. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment 560 580 600 620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 Allow_flexible_configurations Improve_contract Improve _route_scheduling Mit. off Mit. on Impact of mitigation strategy on Total_process_value Base
  24. 24. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment  mitigation strategy results  therefore the strategy ‘flexible configurations' was designed and implemented recasting as a whole the production process and the order processing with particular emphasis on the Mexico unity, where by the strategy a production downsizing is implemented there to reduce the manufacturing cycle since it was found in ‘manufacturing delay’ evidence that there is significant increasing in probability when a delay occurs, that the product has coming from this plant among the others
  25. 25. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment  mitigation strategy results  by simulating a wide range of SC total values it is clear for the scenario with application of proposed mitigation measures that the probability of SC highest total value achievement increases 20% compared to the same probability for the scenario with no application of mitigation measures.
  26. 26. Programa de Atualização Profissional issue treatment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Impact of Allow_flexible_configurations mitigation strategy on Total_process_value Mitigation 'off' Mitigation 'on'