1.
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
July 18, 2016

2.
H E A D I N G I N T O T H E R E P U B L I C A N C O N V E N T I O N

3.
F O L L OW ING P R I M ARY B AT T LES , R E P UB LI CANS S AY PA R TY I S
D I V I D ED
Would you describe
the Republican
Party today as
united or divided?
United
16%
Divided
81%
Don’t know/No
answer
3%
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016
PAGE 3

4.
M O S T R E P UBL ICA NS W O U L D H AV E P R E F ERRE D S O M EO NE
O T H E R T H A N T R U MP A S T H E N O M I NEE
Trump
40%
Other
54%
No opinion
6%
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll July-11-14, 2016
Trump
48%Somone
else 51%
Don't know
1%
Out of the candidates who ran, whodid you want to see
win the Republican nominationfor president this year?
Who would you rather haveas the RepublicanParty’s
presidential nominee?
Source: Fox News June 26-28, 2016
PAGE 4

5.
H A L F O F R E P U BLI CANS B E L I EVE G O P W I L L N O T S O L I DLY U N I T E
B E H I ND T R U MP
54% 38%
Have disagreements that keepmany
from supporting him
Unite solidly behind him
Among Republican primary preference
% of Republican/Rep-leaning registered voters who say if Trump is the party’s nominee, theparty will…
28%
52%
Other
Trump
Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016
About a quarter of Republicans
who supported other GOP
candidates say party will united
behind Trump
PAGE 5

6.
Y E T, M O R E S T R ONG S U P PORT B E H I ND T R UM P T H AN R O M NEY O R
M C C A IN
46%
71%
34%
38%
45%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% who say they support their candidate choice ‘strongly’
Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26
PAGE 6

7.
M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC AN V O T E RS S AY T R U MP R E P R ESEN TS
PA R T Y’S C O R E VA L UE S
Overall, do you think DonaldTrump represents thecore principles andvalues thatthe RepublicanParty SHOULD standfor, or doesn’t he?
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016
Total GOP
voters
Trump
voters
Non-Trump
Voters
Yes 61% 88% 40%
No 35% 11% 50%
PAGE 7
RepublicanPrimary Voters

8.
L O O K I N G A T T H E C A N D I D A T E S

9.
M O R E T H A N H A L F O F A M E R I CANS H AV E A N U N FAVO RABL E V I E W
O F C L I N TON A N D T R U MP
55% 54% 57%
60%
55% 57% 55% 52% 54%
59%
54% 52%
58%
66% 64% 60% 57% 59%
62% 64% 63% 58% 64%
59%
Clinton Trump
Source: Huffington Post Pollster. Polls fielded from 6/9-7/16
PAGE 9
Unfavorable

10.
AT T R IB UTES U S E D T O D E S C RI BE C L I N TON A N D T R U M P
77%
30%
45%
54%
58% 60%
82%
45%
35%34% 34% 35% 35%
45%
63% 66%
83%
89%
Experienced Honestand
trustworthy
Cares about
people like me
Sensible Corrupt Patriotic Intelligent Obnoxious Hot-headed
Clinton:Yes,itdoes Trump:Yes,itdoes
For each of the following words and phrases, please tell me if you think it describes [Trump/Clinton].
Source: Fox News June 26-28, 2016
PAGE 10

11.
M O S T A M E RI CANS D O N O T T H I N K T R U MP I S Q U A L IFI ED T O
S E R V E A S P R E S IDE NT
Qualified
59%
Qualified
37%
Not Qualified
39%
Not Qualified
60%
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Regardless of whether or not you’d votefor [him/her], do youthink [Trumpor Clinton] is or is not qualified toserve as president?
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll July 11-14, 2016
PAGE 11

12.
A M E R IC ANS WA N T A P R E S I DENT W H O C A N TA K E T H E N AT ION I N
A N E W D I R E CT ION
56%
38%
New Direction
Same Direction
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll June 20-23, 2016
Thinking about the electionin November, which of thesetwo statements comes closest to your own views: (After eight years if Barack Obama,we need
to elect a president who canset thenation in a new direction) OR (We need to keep thecountry movingin the direction Obama has been takingus)?
PAGE 12

13.
A N X I E TY I S H I G H A B O U T B O T H C A N DID ATES , E S P E CIA LLY T R UMP
No
opinion
3%
Clinton
Anxious
50%
Comfortable
47%
No
opinion
3%
Trump
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll June 20-23, 2016
Thinking about ____ as president – are youcomfortablewith this, or does it make you anxious?
Anxious
70%
Comfortable
27%
PAGE 13

14.
L O O K I N G A H E A D T O T H E G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N

15.
G R E ATER E L E CTI ON I N T E RE ST T H A N D U R I NG P R E V IOUS
C A M PAIG NS; M O R E S AY ‘ I T R E A L LY M AT TER S W H O W I N S’
63%
50%
46%
58%
72%
67%
80%
29%
41% 43%
36%
23%
30%
15%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Quite a lot
Only a little
Thought about election…
Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016
56%
67%
63% 63%
74%
44%
29%
32% 34%
22%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
It really matters who wins election
Things will be pretty much the
same no matter who wins
Among registered voters Among registered voters
When it comes to making progress on
important issues facing the country…
PAGE 15

16.
T R U M P T R A IL S N AT IO NALLY; O N E I N T E N M AY C H A NG E V O T E
Clinton
voters
Trump
voters
Yes, mind made
up 88% 90%
No, might
change before
election
11% 10%
(Amongregisteredvoters)
Source: Huffington Post Pollster Average Updated 7/18/16 Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll 7/8-7/12
Is your mind made up?
PAGE 16
Clinton 43.4%
Trump 39.8%

17.
S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S
O
R
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
AZ
FL
VA
OH
PAIA
WI
CO
NV
(7/5-7/12)
Clinton: 44.6%
Trump: 36.6%
(6/22-7/15)
Clinton: 42.3%
Trump: 39.3%
(6/21-7/10)
Clinton: 44.3%
Trump: 38.7%
(6/22-7/11)
Clinton: 45.5%
Trump: 42.3%
Clinton: 43.8%
Trump: 39.0%
(6/13-7/12)
Clinton: 44.0%
Trump: 43.4%
(6/25-7/11)
(6/22-7/15)
Clinton: 43.4%
Trump: 41.6%
Trump: 44.0%
Clinton: 43.5%
(5/24-7/10)
Clinton: 43.5%
Trump: 43.0%
(6/20-6/23)
NC Clinton: 43.3%
Trump: 42.0%
(6/20-7/11)
Source: RealClearPolitics
PAGE 17

18.
W H A T ’ S N E X T

19.
PAGE 19
K E Y U P C O MI NG D AT ES I N 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON C Y C L E
Event Date
GOP National Convention July 18-21
Democratic National Convention July 25-28
First Presidential Debate September 26
Vice Presidential Debate October 4
Second Presidential Debate October 9
Third Presidential Debate October 16
Election Day November 8
Countdown to Election Day (from July 18): 112 days

20.
M A J O RI TY O F V O T E R S N O T L O O KI NG F O R WARD T O R E M A I NDER
O F C A M PAIG N
Are you looking forward to the next few months of the presidential campaign, or not?
Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016
No
61%
Yes
37%
PAGE 20

21.
1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10010
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM
GPG Research
The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs
firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research
methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our
clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)