1.
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
March 15, 2016

2.
PAGE 2
S O FA R , T U R NO UT I N T H I S Y E A R’ S P R I M ARI ES R I VA LS 2 0 0 8
R E C O RD
Source: Pew Research Center
26%
21%
25%
22%
17%
18%
15%
30%
15%
29%
16%
17% 17%
13%
8% 8%
10%
20%
6%
12%
12%
7%
10% 9%
9%
11%
7%
11%
10%
17%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Votes cast in Democratic and Republican primaries as a share of eligible voters in primary states
Total Democratic Republican

3.
PAGE 3
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS S P I KE S C A U SE D B Y T H E G O P D E B ATES
A N D C A N C EL LED T R U MP R A L LY
Source: Brandwatch
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar
Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich
66%
23%
8%
3%
Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio John Kasich
Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume
n= 3,806,849
GOP Debates
GOP Debates
Trump Rally Cancelled
in Chicago
Trump Blames Sanders for
Cancelled Rally

4.
PAGE 4
D E M O CRAT IC D E B ATES A N D C A N C EL LED T R UM P R A L LY D R O VE
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS
Source: Brandwatch
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar
Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Democratic Debates
40%
60%
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume
n= 1,765,739
Democratic Debates
Trump Blames Sanders for
Cancelled Rally

5.
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON

6.
PAGE 6
R E P U BL ICA N PAT H T O T H E N O M I NATI ON
Phase 1 –
Winnowing the Field
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
Phase 2 –
Super Tuesday (SEC Primary)
653 Delegates (26% of all delegates)
Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins
Phase 4 –
March 16 – June 7
Final Primary Voting
Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18 – 21, 2016
Key Dates
Date
Number of
Delegates
States
March 15 367
FL, IL, MO,Northern
MarianaIslands,NC,OH
March 22 107 American Samoa,AZ,UT
April 26 172 CT,DE, MD,PA, RI
June 7 331 CA,MT, NJ,NM,SD

7.
PAGE 7
W I N N ER S O F E A C H S TATE P R I MARY /CA UCUS S O FA R
DonaldTrump
(15)
Ted Cruz
(8)
Marco Rubio
(1)
Also won DC & Puerto Rico

8.
PAGE 8
T H E N U M B ER O F V O T E S I S L E S S T H A N T H E N U M B ER O F
D E L E GAT ES
Top-performing candidates
get more delegates than their
vote totals might suggest.
Trump won about 35 percent
of all the votes cast through
March 8 but earned 43
percent of the delegates
available in those contests.
43.3%
34.4%
33.9%
28.6%
16.9%
21.2%
4.1%
6.8%
1.7%
9.0%
Portion of all delegates
Portion of all votes
Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Others
Source: Washington Post

9.
PAGE 9
T R U M P I S W I N N I NG T H E D E L E GATE R A C E S O FA R , B U T C R U Z
I S N ’ T FA R B E H I N D
Current Delegate Count
2,472 Delegates to the Convention
168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)
1,237 Needed to Win
469
370
163
63
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
DonaldTrump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Source: Associated Press
More than one in 10
delegates will go to
the convention in
Cleveland either
unpledged or
pledged to a defunct
campaign.

10.
PAGE 10
T H E R AT I ON ALE B E H IN D # N E VE RTRUMP M O V E MEN T
Source: Washington Post-ABC News Poll, March 3-6, 2016
In hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz and Rubio
both top Trump. Among non-Trump supporters, 7 in
10 say they’d prefer Cruz, and as many say they’d
pick Rubio in head-to-head contests.
Just 51 percent say they’d be satisfied with Trump
as the Republican nominee. Moreover, 60 percent
of Republican and Republican-leaning women say
they’d be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee.

11.
PAGE 11
T R U M P H A S L E D I N N AT I ONA L P O L L I NG S I N C E S E P T EMBE R
Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise.
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7%
12%6% 5% 6% 6%
8% 13%
18% 17%
24%
11%
8% 6%
9%
10%
15%
10% 17%
13%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
39%
43% 42%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Kasich Cruz Rubio Trump

12.
PAGE 12
W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R R E P UB LIC ANS O N M A R C H 1 5 T H
Source: The Green Papers and Real Clear Politics Polling averages
March 15th Primary Details
Voter Eligibility Number of Delegates
(Allocation)
Florida Closed 99
(Winner-Take-All)
NorthCarolina Open 72
(Proportional)
Illinois Modified** 69
(Winner-Take-Most*)
Ohio Modified** 66
(Winner-Take-All)
Missouri Open 52
(Proportional*)
5%
13%
10%
23%
36%
18%
11%
10%
20%
26%
29%
19%
33%
35%
41%
42%
Ohio
Illinois
North
Carolina
Florida
Polling Averages for March 15th Primary States
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
*Illinois and Missouri could functionally become winner-
take-all too. Both states award their delegates on a
congressional-district level. So if Trump (or someone
else) sweeps their congressional districts, that candidate
will win all the delegates
Limited to no polling has been done in Missouri
**unaffiliated voters may choose
which party primary to vote in,
while voters registered with a
party may only vote in that party’s
primary.

13.
PAGE 13
H O W F L O R I DA A N D O H I O C O U LD M A K E O R B R E A K D O N AL D
T R U M P T H I S W E E K
Source: Frontloading HQ courtesy of The Washington Post

14.
PAGE 14
S TAT E O F T H E G O P R A C E F O R T H E P R E S IDE NCY
• Donald Trump remains in a strong position, at least as long as the field remains divided.
• Kasich and Cruz gain, at Rubio’s expense: Marco Rubio cleared 18 percent of the vote in every primary
state on Super Tuesday. He hasn’t reached that number since. Both John Kasich and Ted Cruz have
benefited.
• The Challenge for Anyone but Trump: The results since Super Tuesday suggest that Trump holds
around 38 percent of the vote nationally, a number that could allow him to amass a majority of delegates
in a three-way race. But they also suggest that he really does have a ceiling: His support hasn’t
increased, even as other candidates have left the race or faltered.
• Kasich might win Ohio, but even if he does, Trump could amass a majority of delegates without it.
Trump could conceivably benefit if Kasich stays in the race, by preventing Cruz from consolidating the
“Anyone but Trump” vote.

15.
2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

16.
PAGE 16
D E M O CRAT IC PAT H T O T H E N O M I NAT ION
Phase 1 –
Winnowing the Field
Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
Phase 2 –
Early March
1,389 Delegates (29% of all delegates)
Phase 3 –
Late March
1,113 Delegates (23% of all delegates)
Phase 4 –
April – June
Final Primary Voting
Phase 5 – DNC Convention, July 25 – 28, 2016
Key Dates
Date
Number of
Delegates
States
March 15 691 FL, IL, MO,NC,OH
March 26 142 AK, HI, WA
April 19 247 NY
April 26 384 CT,DE, MD,NE,RI
June 7 695
CA,MT, ND,NJ,NM,
SD

17.
PAGE 17
W I N N ER S O F E A C H S TATE P R I MARY /CA UCUS S O FA R
Bernie Sanders
(9)
Hillary Clinton
(12)

18.
PAGE 18
A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S W O N A L M O ST A S M A N Y S TATE S,
C L I N TON H A S S T R ON G L E A D W I T H D E L GATES
Source NY Times
768
554
467
26
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Clinton
Sanders
Delegates
Superdelegates
Total:1,235
Total:580
4,763 Delegates to the Convention
4,051 Pledged delegates
712 Superdelegates
2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)
Current Delegate Count

19.
PAGE 19
A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S N A R R OWED T H E L E A D I N T H E P O L L S,
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS S T I L L FAV OR C L I N TON S I G N IF ICA NTLY
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
12%
17% 18%
24% 25%
30% 31%
34%
39% 40%
60% 58%
54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%
51% 53%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among Democrats and Democratic leaningvoters
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
90%
10%
Clinton Sanders
Chancesofbecomingthe Democratic
presidential nominee

20.
PAGE 20
W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R D E M OCR ATS O N M A R C H 1 5 T H
Source : New York Times, The Green Papers, and Real Clear Politics polling averages
Voter
Eligibility
Delegate
Counts
(Allocation)
Florida Closed 246
(Proportional)
Illinois Open 182
(Proportional)
Ohio Modified* 159
(Proportional)
NorthCarolina Modified* 121
(Proportional)
Missouri Open 84
(Proportional)
March 15th Primary Details
33%
43%
46%
32%
57%
50%
48%
61%
North Carolina
Ohio
Illinois
Florida
Polling
Averages
for
March
15th Primary
States
Clinton
Sanders
Limited to no polling has been done in Missouri
*unaffiliated voters may choose which party
primary to vote in, while voters registered with a
party may only vote in that party’s primary.

21.
PAGE 21
S TAT E O F D E M O CR ATIC R A C E F O R T H E P R E S IDE NCY
• The headlines have changed for Sanders, but the prediction markets haven’t. Clinton is still the likelier
Democratic nominee.
• With Sanders victory in Michigan, are the polls off in other Midwestern states that are holding open
primaries - specifically Illinois and Ohio?
• If Clinton wins 2 states out of the big 3 (Illinois, Florida, and Ohio), she’ll take the wind out of Sanders’
sails. But if Sanders can win two or even three states today, the campaign will remain alive and fighting.
• A series of Western states vote between March 22 and April 9, as does Wisconsin.

22.
P O S T - M A R C H 1 5 t h

23.
PAGE 23
I M P O RTAN T P O S T M A R CH 1 5 TH D AT E S
( D E B AT ES/ PRI MARI ES/ CAUC USES )
Upcoming Debate Schedule
Date Republican Democrat
March 21st ✔
Primaries/Caucuses in late March/early April
Date Republican Democrat
March 22nd AZ, UT AZ, ID, UT
March 26th AK, HI, WA
April 5th WI WI
April 9th CO WY

24.
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