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Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

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Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

  1. 1. S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 5 Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
  2. 2. PAGE 2 L O O K I NG F O R WA RD: W H AT ’S AT S TA K E I N 2 0 1 6 PRESIDENCY: SENATE: HOUSE: Democrats will attempt to retain control of the White House. Candidates will seek to become the 45th president of the United States. 34 seats being contested – 10 Democratic seats and 24 Republican seats. Democrats will need to win 5 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the Senate. All 435 seats will be up for election once again. Republicans Democrats 54 46 +8 - Republicans Democrats 247 188 +59 -
  3. 3. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
  4. 4. PAGE  4 M A J O R IT Y O F A M E R I CA NS C O N T IN UE T O F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S O N T H E W R O N G T R A CK The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50% in about a decade. Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 14, 2015 RIGHT DIRECTION 28.7% WRONG TRACK 62.3%
  5. 5. 66% 60% 49% 46% 36% Eisenhower (1959) Clinton (1999) Reagan (1987) Obama (2015) G.W. Bush (2007) PAGE  5 O V E R AL L O B A MA’ S A P P R OVA L H I G H E R T H A N H I S P R E D E CES SOR H A L F WAY T H R OU GH 7 TH Y E A R Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in September of Third Year of 2nd Term Weekly Approval Rating Average September 7 – 13, 2015 Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  6. 6. Source: Quinnipiac Poll, August 20-25 2015 PAGE 6 L A R G E PA RT IS AN D I V I D E O V E R P R E FE RENC E F O R D C E X P E RI EN CE O R F O R O U T S I DE R If you had to choose,which type of experience do you think would better help a candidate serve effectively as president; someone who has experience in Washington or someone who is a Washington outsider? 45% 48% 21% 73%77% 18% 37% 55% DC experience DC outsider Total Republicans Democrats Independents
  7. 7. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N C Y : R E P U B L I C A N N O M I N A T I O N
  8. 8. PAGE 8 S TA G E I S S E T F O R N E X T G O P D E B ATE
  9. 9. PAGE 9 D O N A L D T R U MP WA S B Y FA R T H E M O S T TA L KE D A B O U T R E P U BL IC AN C A N D ID ATE O N L I N E* Donald Trump 48% Ted Cruz 8% Ben Carson 7% Rick Perry 7% Jeb Bush 7% Mike Huckabee 6% Scott Walker 4% Carly Fiorina 4% Bobby Jindal 2% Rand Paul 2% Other 5% Other Republican Candidates Chris Christie 1% Marco Rubio 1% Lindsey Graham 1% John Kasich 1% Rick Santorum 0% George Pataki 0% Jim Gilmore 0% *Timeframe analyzed: September 8 – September 15, 2015 Using Brandwatch N = 1 , 1 6 4 , 4 8 7
  10. 10. PAGE 10 T R U M P, C A R SO N S U R G E I N G O P R A C E 4% 24% 33% 6% 20% 21% 8% 12% 7% 8% 5% 0% 50% March May July Now 2016 Republican Primary Reference Among registered leaned Republicans Donald  Trump Ben  Carson Jeb  Bush Ted  Cruz Marco  Rubio Rand  Paul Candidate Average Donald Trump 33.8% Ben Carson 18.8% Jeb Bush 8.7% Ted Cruz 6.3% Marco Rubio 4.9% Scott Walker 4.1% John Kasich 2.9% Carly Fiorina 2.5% Rand Paul 2.5% Chris Christie 2.1% Rick Santorum 1.2% Bobby Jindal 1.0% Lindsey Graham 0.4% Jim Gilmore 0.0% George Pataki 0.0% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of September 15, 2015 Source: ABC/Washington Post Poll, Sept 7-10, 2015
  11. 11. PAGE 11 T R U M P L E A D S G O P F I E L D I N I A , N H , & S C Source: CBS News / YouGov poll, September 3-10, 2015 Note: only candidates with at least 5% support shown
  12. 12. Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data PAGE 12 R E P U BL IC ANS H AV E H I S T ORI CAL LY N O M I NATE D E A R LY F R O N T- R U N N ER S Republican trial-heat poll closest to October of year prior to election Date First place for nomination Second place for nomination or nominee October 2011 Mitt Romney (20%) Herman Cain (18%) October 2007 Rudy Giuliani (32%) John McCain (16%) October 1999 George W. Bush (60%) Elizabeth Dole (11%) September 1995 Bob Dole (46%) Phil Gramm (10%) October 1987 George Bush (41%) Bob Dole (24%) November 1979 Ronald Reagan (41%) Howard Baker (18%) October 1975 Gerald Ford (48%) Ronald Reagan (25%) October 1967 Richard Nixon (42%) Nelson Rockefeller (15%) October 1963 Barry Goldwater (45%) Nelson Rockefeller (23%) October 1959 Richard Nixon (67%) Nelson Rockefeller (19%)
  13. 13. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N C Y : D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
  14. 14. PAGE 14 E X C L UD IN G F D R , I T ’ S B E E N 1 7 9 Y E A R S S I N C E D E M O CR ATS HAVE W O N T H R E E C O N SE CUTI VE T E R MS Just 27 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Obama for a third term if he could run for one. If you exclude FDR succeeding himself by running for a third term in 1940, the only time it's happened since the advent of the modern two-party system was in 1836 when Vice President Martin Van Buren succeeded President Andrew Jackson. That was 179 years ago!!! The Democrats have failed in four of their last five attempts to win three consecutive terms in office after taking two elections with the same candidate (or his legal successor), with just President Roosevelt winning in 1940. The failed Democratic candidates include James Cox (1920), Adlai Stevenson (1952), Hubert Humphrey (1968), and Al Gore (2000).
  15. 15. PAGE 15 S H O U L D B I D E N R U N ? R E S ULTS A R E M I X E D A M O N G D E MOCRATIC P R I M A RY V O T ER S I N S TAT ES W I T H E A R L I EST C O N T ES TS Source: CBS News / YouGov poll, September 3-10, 2015 34% 34%31% 44% 48% 25% Should Should not Iowa New  Hampshire South  Carolina
  16. 16. PAGE 16 O N L I N E C H ATT ER A B O U T D E M O CRAT IC C A N DI DATE S WA S S P L I T M O R E E V E N LY, W I T H C L I N TON TA L KE D A B O U T T H E M O S T Hillary Clinton, 48% Bernie Sanders, 37% Joe Biden, 14% Martin O'Malley, 1% Lincoln Chafee, 0.2% Jim Webb, 0.2% *Timeframe analyzed: September 8 – September 15, 2015 Using Brandwatch N = 4 9 0 , 6 7 7 27% of online conversations about Hillary Clinton focused on the email controversy.
  17. 17. PAGE 17 C L I N TO N’ S S U P P ORT D R O P S I N D E M O CR ATIC R A C E 66% 62% 63% 42% 5% 10% 14% 24% 12% 14% 12% 21% March May July Now 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered leaned Democrats Hillary  Clinton Bernie  Sanders Joe  Biden Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 43.3% Bernie Sanders 25.2% Joe Biden 19.4% Martin O’Malley 1.6% Jim Webb 1.1% Lincoln Chafee 0.6% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of September 15, 2015 Source: ABC/Washington Post Poll, Sept 7-10, 2015
  18. 18. PAGE 18 S A N D ER S S U R G ES I N I A , N H ; C L I N TO N U P I N S C Source: CBS News / YouGov poll, September 3-10, 2015
  19. 19. PAGE 19 FAV O RA BLE V I E WS O F C L I N TON D R O P; P E R S ONA L E - M A I L S I T U AT IO N A P P E ARS T O B E TA K I NG A T O L L Source: AP-GfK poll, July 9-13, 2015 Source: ABC/Washington Post Poll, Sept 7-10, 2015 Do you approve or disapprove ofthe way Hillary Clinton is handling questions abouther use ofpersonale-mail while she was secretary ofstate? Do you think Clinton has honestly disclosedthe facts abouther use of personal e-mail whilesecretary ofstate or has she triedto cover upthe facts? 55% 34% Disapprove Approve 54% 34% Cover up the facts Honestly disclosed
  20. 20. PAGE 20 B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R A LI TY O F A M E R I CANS D O N ’ T P L A N O N V O T I N G I N T H E P R I M A RI ES AT A L L Vote in Democratic Primary 30% Wait until the general election 39% Not sure 1% Vote in Republican Primary 30% If there were a primary election in your state, wouldyou vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election? Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, July 26-30 2015
  21. 21. PAGE 21 D E B ATE C A L E ND AR Note: All dates tentative and subject to change Date Party/State/Network Wednesday, September 16, 2015 Republican – California (CNN) Tuesday, October 13, 2015 Democratic – Nevada (CNN) Wednesday, October 28, 2015 Republican – Colorado (CNBC) Saturday, November 14, 2015 Democratic – Iowa (CBS News) November 2015 (date TBD) Republican – Wisconsin (Fox Business Network) Wednesday, December 15, 2015 Republican – Nevada (CNN) Saturday, December 19, 2015 Democratic – New Hampshire (ABC News) Sunday, January 17, 2016 Democratic – South Carolina (NBC)
  22. 22. PAGE 22 E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I M ARY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016 Date State Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus) Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary) Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary) Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus) Tuesday, March 1, 2016 Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)
  23. 23. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)