Democratic Debate Preview: Clinton Leads, But Sanders Surges

O C T O B E R 2 0 1 5
Election 2016 – 1st Democratic
Debate Preview

M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

PAGE 3
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S C O N TI NUE T O F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S O N
T H E W R O N G T R A CK
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 12, 2015
RIGHT DIRECTION 28.1%
WRONG TRACK 63.3%

67%
56%
51%
47%
32%
Eisenhower (1959) Clinton (1999) Reagan (1987) Obama (2015) G.W. Bush (2007)
PAGE 4
O V E R AL L O B A M A’S A P P RO VAL H I G HER T H A N H I S P R E D ECE SSOR
AT T H I S P O I N T I N 7 TH Y E A R
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in October of
Third Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating
Average
September 28 – Oct 4, 2015
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

41%
55%
59%
64%
68%
71%
73%
83%
Abortion
Environment
Immigration
Foreign policy
Federal budget deficit
Terrorism
Health care
Economy
ALL
38%
74%
55%
59%
58%
64%
82%
79%
47%
37%
65%
71%
78%
79%
66%
89%
Abortion
Environment
Immigration
Foreign policy
Federal budget deficit
Terrorism
Health care
Economy
Republicans Democrats
E C O N OMY R E M A INS T O P C A M PA IGN I S S U E; W I D E PA R TI SAN G A P
O V E R I M P O RTANCE O F E N V I RO NMEN T, D E F I CI T, H E A LTH C A R E
Source: Pew Research Center, September 22-27, 2015
In making your decision
about who to vote for in
the 2016 presidential
election, will the issue of
[INSERT ITEM] be very
important, somewhat
important, not too
important, or not at all
important?
% of voters saying each will be “very important” to their vote for president in 2016…
PAGE 5

Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, September 18-21, 2015 PAGE 6
P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R IC ANS WA N T A G O V E RN MENT O U T S IDE R A S
P R E S I DENT IAL C A N DI DATE
A government outsider
who has been a leader
in the field, handling
complex issues and
managing to get things
done,
37%
Not sure
9%
A governor who has
been a government
executive, has worked
with a legislature, and
who is responsible for
balancing a budget,
27%
A U.S. senator who
has involvement with
national security and
international relations
and diplomatic issues,
27%
All other things being equal, which of the
following is a more attractive candidate
for president at this time?

Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015 PAGE 7
D E M O CRAT S M O R E L I K E LY T O WA N T A C A N D I DATE W H O I S
W I L L I NG T O C O M P ROM ISE
60%
35%
48% 49%
Will make compromises Will stick to their positions
Democrats Republicans
Now, if your choice in the Democratic/Republican
primary came down to a candidate who will make
compromises to gain consensus on legislation to get
things done, or a candidate who will stick to their
positions even if this means not being able to gain
consensus on legislation, which candidate would you
be more likely to support?

Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015 PAGE 8
A M E R IC ANS A R E S P L I T O N W H AT PA R TY C O N T ROLL ING T H E
N E X T P R E SI DEN CY W O U LD B E B E T T ER F O R T H E C O U N TRY
Democrat
38%
Neither a Republican
or Democrat/ Some
other party
8%
Makes no difference
7%
Not sure
9%
Republican
38% Do you think it would be better for the country to have a
Democrat or a Republican as the next president?

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

S I X C A N D I DATE S V Y I N G F O R D E M OC RATI C N O M IN ATIO N; O N E
S T I L L U N D EC IDE D

Source: Pew Research Center, September 22-27, 2015 PAGE 11
D E M O CRAT S A R E G E N E RAL LY L E S S S AT I SFI ED W I T H T H E IR
F I E L D T H A N I N 2 0 0 7
50%
59%
64%
51%
Sept. 2007 Sept. 2015
Overall, what’s your impression of the possible
candidates running for the Republican/Democratic
presidential nomination? As a GROUP, would you say
they are excellent candidates, good candidates, only
fair candidates, or poor candidates?
% of voters who have an excellent/goodimpressionof the candidates runningfor their party’s nomination

A L M O ST H A L F O F A M E R I CAN A D U LTS WA N T B I D E N I N T H E R A C E
F O R T H E D E M O CRAT IC N O M I NATI ON
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, September 18-21, 2015
Not sure,
15%
Prefer he
stay out,
37%
Want Biden in,
47%
Vice President Joe Biden is considering
entering the race for the Democratic
nomination for president. Do you want Joe
Biden to enter the race or prefer he stay out?

O N L I NE C H ATTE R I N W E E K P R I O R T O F I R S T D E B AT E M O S TLY
C E N T ER ED A R O U ND C L I N TON
Hillary Clinton,
56%
Bernie Sanders,
35%
Joe Biden,
9%
*Timeframe analyzed: October 6 – October 12, 2015
Using Brandwatch
N = 3 0 2 , 0 7 2
12% of online
conversations
about Hillary Clinton
focused on her
opposition to the
TPP deal
11% of online
conversations
about Bernie
Sanders mentioned
his campaign
hashtag
#FeelTheBern

H I L L A RY A N D B E R NI E N E W S V O L U ME C O M PA RIS ON
Hillary Clinton constantly receives more online news coverage than Bernie Sanders
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
*Timeframe analyzed: March 1 – October 12, 2015
Using Brandwatch

H I L L A RY A N D B E R NI E S O C I AL M E D IA V O L UME C O M PARI SON
However, since the summer, social media coverage of both candidates has been comparable
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
3/3/15
3/10/15
3/17/15
3/24/15
3/31/15
4/7/15
4/14/15
4/21/15
4/28/15
5/5/15
5/12/15
5/19/15
5/26/15
6/2/15
6/9/15
6/16/15
6/23/15
6/30/15
7/7/15
7/14/15
7/21/15
7/28/15
8/4/15
8/11/15
8/18/15
8/25/15
9/1/15
9/8/15
9/15/15
9/22/15
9/29/15
10/6/15
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Using Brandwatch

C L I N TON M A I NTA INS H E R L E A D
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 44.4%
Bernie Sanders 25.1%
Joe Biden 19.1%
Jim Webb 1.2%
Martin O’Malley 1.0%
Lincoln Chafee 0.6%
Lawrence Lessig 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of October 12, 2015
Source: CBS News Poll, October 4-8, 2015
11%
15%
16%
17%
27%
27%
58%
47%
46%
August September October
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among registered/leaned Democrats
Biden Sanders Clinton

B U T L A R G E J U M P I N T H O S E W H O C O U L D S E E T H E MSE LVES
S U P P ORT ING B I D E N O R S A N D ERS
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015
86%
92%
76%
54%
65%
73%
21%
40%
62%
March June September
Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who
might seek the Democratic nomination for president in
2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether
you could see yourself supporting that person for the
Democratic nomination president in 2016.
% could see self supporting

Bernie
Sanders
46%
27%
16%Joe
Biden
Hillary
Clinton
32%
56%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
Source: CBS News Poll, October 4-8, 2015
WITH BIDEN WITHOUT BIDEN
C L I N TON ’S S U P P ORT J U M P S W H E N B I D E N N O T C O N SI DER ED I N
R A C E F O R T H E D E M O CRATI C N O M IN ATIO N

H I L L A RY C L I NTON V O L UME A N D V O T E
There is no obvious correlation between online coverage and percent of the vote that
Hillary receives
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
3/3/15 3/10/15 3/17/15 3/24/15 3/31/15 4/7/15 4/14/15 4/21/15 4/28/15 5/5/15 5/12/15 5/19/15 5/26/15 6/2/15 6/9/15 6/16/15 6/23/15 6/30/15 7/7/15 7/14/15 7/21/15 7/28/15 8/4/15 8/11/15 8/18/15 8/25/15 9/1/15 9/8/15 9/15/15 9/22/15 9/29/15 10/6/15
TOTAL VOTE
Using Brandwatch

B E R N IE S A N DE RS V O L U ME A N D V O T E
However, for Bernie Sanders there is a strong correlation between increased online
coverage (both news and social media) and percentage of the vote he receives
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
3/3/15
3/10/15
3/17/15
3/24/15
3/31/15
4/7/15
4/14/15
4/21/15
4/28/15
5/5/15
5/12/15
5/19/15
5/26/15
6/2/15
6/9/15
6/16/15
6/23/15
6/30/15
7/7/15
7/14/15
7/21/15
7/28/15
8/4/15
8/11/15
8/18/15
8/25/15
9/1/15
9/8/15
9/15/15
9/22/15
9/29/15
10/6/15
TOTAL VOTE
Using Brandwatch

C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E S A N DE RS I S O N T O P I N N E W
H A M P SH IRE; C L I N TON A P P E ARS S T R ONG I N N E VA DA & S O U T H
C A R O LI NA
33%
28%
50% 49%
28%
42%
34%
18%
22%
18%
12%
24%
Iowa New Hampshire Nevada South Carolina
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden
Source for IA & NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll, September 2015
Source for NV & SC: CNN/ORC Poll, October 3-10, 2015

T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups

F I R S T W O R D T H AT C O M ES T O M I N D F O R V O T ER S F O R B I D E N
M U C H M O R E P O S I TI VE T H A N F O R C L I N TON O R S A N D ER S
Source: Suffolk University Poll, September 2015
LIAR,
DISHONEST
UNTRUSTWORTHY,

FAKE
SMART, INTELLIGENT,
KNOWLEDGEABLE
DECEITFUL,
SNEAKY, TRICKY
NICE, OKAY,
EXCELLENT, GOOD
1
2
3
4
5
SOCIALIST
FAVORABLE,
LIKE,

GOOD
LIBERAL,
DEMOCRAT
UNFAVORABLE,
DISLIKE
INTELLIGENT,
KNOWLEDGEABLE
1
2
3
4
5
FAVORABLE,
LIKE
HONEST,
HONORABLE,

INTEGRITY,

TRUSTWORTHY
IDIOT, JOKE
FUN, FUNNY,
CHARACTER, GOOFY
UNFAVORABLE,
DISLIKE
1
2
3
4
5
What one word describes [CANDIDATE]?

B I D E N L E A D S I N A L L P E R S ONA LIT Y T R A ITS A M E RI CANS WA N T I N
T H E I R P R E S ID ENTI AL C A N DI DATE
Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, September 17-21, 2015
32%
55%
43%
49%
63%
47%
45%
48%
40% 41%
62%
54%
61%
57%
75%
Honest and
trustworthy
Strong leadership
qualities
Cares about needs
and problems of
people like you
Right temperament
and personality to
handle international
crisis
Right kind of
experience to be
President

S A N D ER S S U P PO RTERS L O O K D I F F ERE NT
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Polls, combined July/Sept 2015
41%
58%
33%
61%
22%
39%
62%
29%
51%
47%
36%
51%
33%
46%
29%
60%
29%
47%
Liberal Non-white College graduate Women Independent Ages 18-39
% of each candidate’s
supporters who are…

B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R ICA NS D O N ’ T
P L A N O N V O T I NG I N T H E P R I M ARI ES AT A L L
Vote in Democratic
Primary
31%
Waituntil the
generalelection
38%
Not sure
3%
Vote in Republican
Primary
28%
If there were a primary election in your
state, wouldyou vote in the Democratic
primary, the Republican primary, or would
you wait to vote in the general election?

44%
39%
46% 45%45%
49%
45% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JebBush
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
BenCarson
CarlyFiorina
HillaryClinton
HillaryClinton
HillaryClinton
40%
35%
41% 41%
48%
56%
49%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JebBush
DonaldTrump
BenCarson
CarlyFiorina
JoeBiden
JoeBiden
JoeBiden
JoeBiden
B I D E N P E R F ORM S B E T T ER T H A N C L I N TON I N P O T E NTI AL H E A D-
T O - H EA D M AT CHUP S W I T H R E P U BLI CAN C A N DID ATES

R E P U BL ICA NS M O R E L I K ELY T O B E E X T R E MELY/ VERY
E N T H US IAS TIC A B O U T T H E U P C OM ING E L E C TI ON
Source: CNN Poll, September 17-19, 2015
65%
22%
11%
51%
26%
23%
Extremely/Very enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not too/Not at all enthusiastic
How enthusiastic wouldyou say you are
about voting for president in next year’s
election – extremely enthusiastic,very
enthusiastic,somewhatenthusiastic,not
too enthusiastic,or not at all enthusiastic?

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The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs
firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research
methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our
clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence
it.
On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we
also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

Democratic Debate Preview: Clinton Leads, But Sanders Surges

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Democratic Debate Preview: Clinton Leads, But Sanders Surges