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Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016 10.13.15

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Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2016 10.13.15

  1. O C T O B E R 2 0 1 5 Election 2016 – 1st Democratic Debate Preview
  2. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y
  3. PAGE  3 M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S C O N TI NUE T O F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S O N T H E W R O N G T R A CK The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50% in about a decade. Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 12, 2015 RIGHT DIRECTION 28.1% WRONG TRACK 63.3%
  4. 67% 56% 51% 47% 32% Eisenhower (1959) Clinton (1999) Reagan (1987) Obama (2015) G.W. Bush (2007) PAGE  4 O V E R AL L O B A M A’S A P P RO VAL H I G HER T H A N H I S P R E D ECE SSOR AT T H I S P O I N T I N 7 TH Y E A R Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in October of Third Year of 2nd Term Weekly Approval Rating Average September 28 – Oct 4, 2015 Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  5. 41% 55% 59% 64% 68% 71% 73% 83% Abortion Environment Immigration Foreign policy Federal budget deficit Terrorism Health care Economy ALL 38% 74% 55% 59% 58% 64% 82% 79% 47% 37% 65% 71% 78% 79% 66% 89% Abortion Environment Immigration Foreign policy Federal budget deficit Terrorism Health care Economy Republicans Democrats E C O N OMY R E M A INS T O P C A M PA IGN I S S U E; W I D E PA R TI SAN G A P O V E R I M P O RTANCE O F E N V I RO NMEN T, D E F I CI T, H E A LTH C A R E Source: Pew Research Center, September 22-27, 2015 In making your decision about who to vote for in the 2016 presidential election, will the issue of [INSERT ITEM] be very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? % of voters saying each will be “very important” to their vote for president in 2016… PAGE  5
  6. Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, September 18-21, 2015 PAGE 6 P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R IC ANS WA N T A G O V E RN MENT O U T S IDE R A S P R E S I DENT IAL C A N DI DATE A government outsider who has been a leader in the field, handling complex issues and managing to get things done, 37% Not sure 9% A governor who has been a government executive, has worked with a legislature, and who is responsible for balancing a budget, 27% A U.S. senator who has involvement with national security and international relations and diplomatic issues, 27% All other things being equal, which of the following is a more attractive candidate for president at this time?
  7. Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015 PAGE 7 D E M O CRAT S M O R E L I K E LY T O WA N T A C A N D I DATE W H O I S W I L L I NG T O C O M P ROM ISE 60% 35% 48% 49% Will make compromises Will stick to their positions Democrats Republicans Now, if your choice in the Democratic/Republican primary came down to a candidate who will make compromises to gain consensus on legislation to get things done, or a candidate who will stick to their positions even if this means not being able to gain consensus on legislation, which candidate would you be more likely to support?
  8. Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015 PAGE 8 A M E R IC ANS A R E S P L I T O N W H AT PA R TY C O N T ROLL ING T H E N E X T P R E SI DEN CY W O U LD B E B E T T ER F O R T H E C O U N TRY Democrat 38% Neither a Republican or Democrat/ Some other party 8% Makes no difference 7% Not sure 9% Republican 38% Do you think it would be better for the country to have a Democrat or a Republican as the next president?
  9. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY : D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
  10. PAGE 10 S I X C A N D I DATE S V Y I N G F O R D E M OC RATI C N O M IN ATIO N; O N E S T I L L U N D EC IDE D
  11. Source: Pew Research Center, September 22-27, 2015 PAGE 11 D E M O CRAT S A R E G E N E RAL LY L E S S S AT I SFI ED W I T H T H E IR F I E L D T H A N I N 2 0 0 7 50% 59% 64% 51% Sept. 2007 Sept. 2015 Republicans Democrats Overall, what’s your impression of the possible candidates running for the Republican/Democratic presidential nomination? As a GROUP, would you say they are excellent candidates, good candidates, only fair candidates, or poor candidates? % of voters who have an excellent/goodimpressionof the candidates runningfor their party’s nomination
  12. PAGE 12 A L M O ST H A L F O F A M E R I CAN A D U LTS WA N T B I D E N I N T H E R A C E F O R T H E D E M O CRAT IC N O M I NATI ON Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, September 18-21, 2015 Not sure, 15% Prefer he stay out, 37% Want Biden in, 47% Vice President Joe Biden is considering entering the race for the Democratic nomination for president. Do you want Joe Biden to enter the race or prefer he stay out?
  13. PAGE 13 O N L I NE C H ATTE R I N W E E K P R I O R T O F I R S T D E B AT E M O S TLY C E N T ER ED A R O U ND C L I N TON Hillary Clinton, 56% Bernie Sanders, 35% Joe Biden, 9% *Timeframe analyzed: October 6 – October 12, 2015 Using Brandwatch N = 3 0 2 , 0 7 2 12% of online conversations about Hillary Clinton focused on her opposition to the TPP deal 11% of online conversations about Bernie Sanders mentioned his campaign hashtag #FeelTheBern
  14. PAGE 14 H I L L A RY A N D B E R NI E N E W S V O L U ME C O M PA RIS ON Hillary Clinton constantly receives more online news coverage than Bernie Sanders 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders *Timeframe analyzed: March 1 – October 12, 2015 Using Brandwatch
  15. PAGE 15 H I L L A RY A N D B E R NI E S O C I AL M E D IA V O L UME C O M PARI SON However, since the summer, social media coverage of both candidates has been comparable 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 3/3/15 3/10/15 3/17/15 3/24/15 3/31/15 4/7/15 4/14/15 4/21/15 4/28/15 5/5/15 5/12/15 5/19/15 5/26/15 6/2/15 6/9/15 6/16/15 6/23/15 6/30/15 7/7/15 7/14/15 7/21/15 7/28/15 8/4/15 8/11/15 8/18/15 8/25/15 9/1/15 9/8/15 9/15/15 9/22/15 9/29/15 10/6/15 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders *Timeframe analyzed: March 1 – October 12, 2015 Using Brandwatch
  16. PAGE 16 C L I N TON M A I NTA INS H E R L E A D Candidate Average Hillary Clinton 44.4% Bernie Sanders 25.1% Joe Biden 19.1% Jim Webb 1.2% Martin O’Malley 1.0% Lincoln Chafee 0.6% Lawrence Lessig 0.0% HuffPost Pollster Trend as of October 12, 2015 Source: CBS News Poll, October 4-8, 2015 11% 15% 16% 17% 27% 27% 58% 47% 46% August September October 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered/leaned Democrats Biden Sanders Clinton
  17. PAGE 17 B U T L A R G E J U M P I N T H O S E W H O C O U L D S E E T H E MSE LVES S U P P ORT ING B I D E N O R S A N D ERS Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015 86% 92% 76% 54% 65% 73% 21% 40% 62% March June September Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for the Democratic nomination president in 2016. % could see self supporting
  18. PAGE 18 Bernie Sanders 46% 27% 16%Joe Biden Hillary Clinton 32% 56% Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Source: CBS News Poll, October 4-8, 2015 WITH BIDEN WITHOUT BIDEN C L I N TON ’S S U P P ORT J U M P S W H E N B I D E N N O T C O N SI DER ED I N R A C E F O R T H E D E M O CRATI C N O M IN ATIO N
  19. PAGE 19 H I L L A RY C L I NTON V O L UME A N D V O T E There is no obvious correlation between online coverage and percent of the vote that Hillary receives 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 3/3/15 3/10/15 3/17/15 3/24/15 3/31/15 4/7/15 4/14/15 4/21/15 4/28/15 5/5/15 5/12/15 5/19/15 5/26/15 6/2/15 6/9/15 6/16/15 6/23/15 6/30/15 7/7/15 7/14/15 7/21/15 7/28/15 8/4/15 8/11/15 8/18/15 8/25/15 9/1/15 9/8/15 9/15/15 9/22/15 9/29/15 10/6/15 TOTAL VOTE *Timeframe analyzed: March 1 – October 12, 2015 Using Brandwatch
  20. PAGE 20 B E R N IE S A N DE RS V O L U ME A N D V O T E However, for Bernie Sanders there is a strong correlation between increased online coverage (both news and social media) and percentage of the vote he receives 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 3/3/15 3/10/15 3/17/15 3/24/15 3/31/15 4/7/15 4/14/15 4/21/15 4/28/15 5/5/15 5/12/15 5/19/15 5/26/15 6/2/15 6/9/15 6/16/15 6/23/15 6/30/15 7/7/15 7/14/15 7/21/15 7/28/15 8/4/15 8/11/15 8/18/15 8/25/15 9/1/15 9/8/15 9/15/15 9/22/15 9/29/15 10/6/15 TOTAL VOTE *Timeframe analyzed: March 1 – October 12, 2015 Using Brandwatch
  21. PAGE 21 C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E S A N DE RS I S O N T O P I N N E W H A M P SH IRE; C L I N TON A P P E ARS S T R ONG I N N E VA DA & S O U T H C A R O LI NA 33% 28% 50% 49% 28% 42% 34% 18% 22% 18% 12% 24% Iowa New Hampshire Nevada South Carolina Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Source for IA & NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll, September 2015 Source for NV & SC: CNN/ORC Poll, October 3-10, 2015
  22. PAGE 22 T H E M O N E Y R A C E Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups
  23. PAGE 23 F I R S T W O R D T H AT C O M ES T O M I N D F O R V O T ER S F O R B I D E N M U C H M O R E P O S I TI VE T H A N F O R C L I N TON O R S A N D ER S Source: Suffolk University Poll, September 2015 LIAR,  DISHONEST UNTRUSTWORTHY,   FAKE SMART, INTELLIGENT, KNOWLEDGEABLE DECEITFUL, SNEAKY, TRICKY NICE, OKAY, EXCELLENT, GOOD 1 2 3 4 5 SOCIALIST FAVORABLE,  LIKE,   GOOD LIBERAL, DEMOCRAT UNFAVORABLE, DISLIKE INTELLIGENT, KNOWLEDGEABLE 1 2 3 4 5 FAVORABLE,  LIKE HONEST,  HONORABLE,   INTEGRITY,   TRUSTWORTHY IDIOT, JOKE FUN, FUNNY, CHARACTER, GOOFY UNFAVORABLE, DISLIKE 1 2 3 4 5 What one word describes [CANDIDATE]?
  24. PAGE 24 B I D E N L E A D S I N A L L P E R S ONA LIT Y T R A ITS A M E RI CANS WA N T I N T H E I R P R E S ID ENTI AL C A N DI DATE Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, September 17-21, 2015 32% 55% 43% 49% 63% 47% 45% 48% 40% 41% 62% 54% 61% 57% 75% Honest and trustworthy Strong leadership qualities Cares about needs and problems of people like you Right temperament and personality to handle international crisis Right kind of experience to be President Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden
  25. PAGE 25 S A N D ER S S U P PO RTERS L O O K D I F F ERE NT Source: ABC News / Washington Post Polls, combined July/Sept 2015 41% 58% 33% 61% 22% 39% 62% 29% 51% 47% 36% 51% 33% 46% 29% 60% 29% 47% Liberal Non-white College graduate Women Independent Ages 18-39 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden % of each candidate’s supporters who are…
  26. PAGE 26 B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R ICA NS D O N ’ T P L A N O N V O T I NG I N T H E P R I M ARI ES AT A L L Vote in Democratic Primary 31% Waituntil the generalelection 38% Not sure 3% Vote in Republican Primary 28% If there were a primary election in your state, wouldyou vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election? Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015
  27. PAGE 27 44% 39% 46% 45%45% 49% 45% 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% JebBush HillaryClinton DonaldTrump BenCarson CarlyFiorina HillaryClinton HillaryClinton HillaryClinton Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, September 20-24, 2015 40% 35% 41% 41% 48% 56% 49% 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% JebBush DonaldTrump BenCarson CarlyFiorina JoeBiden JoeBiden JoeBiden JoeBiden B I D E N P E R F ORM S B E T T ER T H A N C L I N TON I N P O T E NTI AL H E A D- T O - H EA D M AT CHUP S W I T H R E P U BLI CAN C A N DID ATES
  28. PAGE 28 R E P U BL ICA NS M O R E L I K ELY T O B E E X T R E MELY/ VERY E N T H US IAS TIC A B O U T T H E U P C OM ING E L E C TI ON Source: CNN Poll, September 17-19, 2015 65% 22% 11% 51% 26% 23% Extremely/Very enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not too/Not at all enthusiastic Republicans Democrats How enthusiastic wouldyou say you are about voting for president in next year’s election – extremely enthusiastic,very enthusiastic,somewhatenthusiastic,not too enthusiastic,or not at all enthusiastic?
  29. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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