1.
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
April 19, 2016

2.
2 0 1 6 – M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

3.
PAGE 3
GREAT ER I NT EREST I N T HI S YEAR’ S PRESI DENT I AL CAMPAI GN
T HAN PREVI OUS YEARS
45%
60%
78%
66%
85%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% registered voters who say they have given ‘quite a lot’ of thought to the
coming presidential elections
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016

4.
PAGE 4
L OSS OF FAI T H I N PRI MARY SYST EM AND PUBL I C’ S POL I T I CAL
W I SDOM
59%
31% 33%
40%
42% 43%
30%
35%
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% voters who say that so far, primaries have
been a good way of determining best-
qualified nominees
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
69%
58%
32%
59%
61%
35%
1997 2007 2016
% voters who have a great deal or good deal of
confidence in the political wisdom of American
public…
Democrats Republicans

5.
PAGE 5
T OO MUCH NEW S COVERAGE ON T RUMP, NOT ENOUGH ON
KASI CH
7%
14%
16%
41%
75%
29%
53%
57%
48%
19%
60%
29%
23%
8%
3%
Kasich
Sanders
Cruz
Clinton
Trump
% registered voters saying news organizations have given ____ of coverage to each…
Too much
About right
Not enough
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016

6.
2016 – E LE C TI O N P R E V I E W – TH E P R E S I D E N C Y :
R E P U B LI C A N N O M I N A TI O N

7.
PAGE 7
W I NNERS OF EACH STAT E PRI MARY/ CAUC US SO FAR
Donald Trump
(20)
Ted Cruz
(11)
Marco Rubio
(1)
Also won DC & Puerto Rico
John Kasich
(1)

8.
PAGE 8
T RUMP I S W I NNI NG T HE DEL EGAT E RACE SO FAR
Current Delegate Count
2,472 Delegates to the Convention
168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)
1,237 Needed to Win
744
559
144
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Source: Associated Press
More than one in 10
delegates will go to
the convention in
Cleveland either
unpledged or
pledged to a defunct
campaign.

9.
PAGE 9
T RUMP HAS L ED I N NAT I ONAL POL L I NG SI NCE SEPT EMBER
Cruz and Kasich See Uptick as Other Candidates Have Dropped Out
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
7%
20% 18%
6% 5% 6% 6%
8%
13%
18% 17%
32%
28%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
39%
43%
45% 44%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among Republican and Republican leaning voters
Kasich Cruz Trump

10.
PAGE 10
NEW YORK – W HAT ’ S AT STAKE?
Source: Huffington Post
New York Primary Information
When?
Tuesday,
April 19th
Number of
Delegates
95
Voter Eligibility Closed Primary
Delegate
Selection
Proportional
(Winner take most)
Polls are giving Trump
54% of the support in
the New York primary.
5%
20%
22%
14%
14%
19%
34%
48%
54%
Feb. March April
2016 New York Republican Primary
Preference
Among New York Republican and Republican leaning
voters
Kasich Cruz Trump

11.
2016 – E LE C TI O N P R E V I E W – TH E P R E S I D E N C Y :
D E M O C R A TI C N O M I N A TI O N

12.
PAGE 12
W I NNERS OF EACH STAT E PRI MARY/ CAUC US SO FAR
Bernie Sanders
(15)
Hillary Clinton
(19)

13.
PAGE 13
CL I NT ON HAS ST RONG L EAD W I T H DEL GAT ES
Source NY Times
1289
1045
469
31
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Clinton
Sanders
Delegates
Superdelegates
1,758
1,076
4,763 Delegates to the Convention
4,051 Pledged delegates
712 Superdelegates
2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)
Current Delegate Count

14.
PAGE 14
ALT HOUGH SANDERS HAS NARROW ED T HE L EAD I N NAT I ONAL
POL L S, PREDI CT I ON MARKET S ST I L L FAVOR CL I NT ON
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
12%
17% 18%
24% 25%
30% 31%
34%
39%
42%
46%
60% 58%
54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%
51% 51%
48%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
92%
8%
Clinton Sanders
Chances of becoming the Democratic
presidential nominee

15.
PAGE 15
NEW YORK – W HAT ’ S AT STAKE?
Source: The New York Times
New Hampshire Primary Information
When? Tuesday, April 19th
Number of
Delegates
291
Voter Eligibility Closed Primary
Delegate Selection Proportional
55% 54%
55%
33%
38%
42%
Feb. March April
2016 New York Democratic Primary
Preference
Among New York Democratic and Democratic leaning
voters
Clinton Sanders
Clinton leads Sanders
55% to 42% in the latest
polling average.

16.
W H A T ’S N E X T ?

17.
PAGE 17
W HAT ’ S AT STAKE – L AT E APRI L
Source : New York Times and The Green Papers
Voter Eligibility Democratic
Delegate
Counts
(Allocation)
Republican
Delegate
Counts
(Allocation)
Pennsylvania Closed 210
(Proportional)
71
(Winner-take-all)
Maryland Closed 118
(Proportional)
38
(Winner-take-all)
Rhode Island Modified 33
(Proportional)
19
(Proportional)
Connecticut Closed 71
(Proportional)
28
(Winner-take-
most)
Delaware Closed 31
(Proportional)
16
(Winner-take-all)
April 26th Primary Details
Clinton Sanders
Pennsylvania 52.1% 35.8%
Maryland 60.3% 36.2%
Trump Cruz Kasich
Penn-
sylvania
44.3% 26.7% 25.3%
Maryland 41.0% 25.5% 27.0%
April 26th PollingAverages

18.
PAGE 18
W HAT ’ S ON TAP I N MAY (PRI MARI ES/ CA UC US ES)
Primaries/Caucuses in May
Date Republican Democrat
May 3 IN IN
May 10 NE, WV WV
May 17 OR KY, OR
May 24 WA

19.
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