1.
N o v e m b e r 7 , 2 0 1 8
B a s e d o n p r e l i m i n a r y i n f o r m a t i o n a n d e x i t p o l l i n g , s u b j e c t t o c h a n g e .
Midterm Election Recap

2.
2
2018 Midterms:
Context

3.
Midterm Election Recap
November 20183
The Historical Perspective: The President’s Party Generally Loses Seats in the
First Midter m
President Year
Senate Seats
Lost/Gained
House Seats
Lost/Gained
Shift in power in at least one chamber?
Gerald Ford (R) 1974 -3 -43 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Jimmy Carter (D) 1978 -3 -11 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Ronald Reagan (R) 1982 - -26 No: GOP retains Senate, Democrats retain House
George H. W. Bush (R) 1990 -1 -8 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Bill Clinton (D) 1994 -8 -52 Yes: GOP takes both chambers
George W. Bush (R) 2002 +2 +6 Yes: GOP retains House and takes Senate
Barack Obama (D) 2010 -6 -63 Yes: GOP takes House, Democrats retain Senate

4.
Midterm Election Recap
November 20184
Going Into the Midter ms, Most Americans Said the Economy was Getting Better
U nem pl o ym ent i s l o w er t han at any o t her po i nt i n t he Tr um p pres i denc y.
4.8%
4.3%
4.4%
4.1%
4.1%
3.8%
4.0%
3.9%
3.7%
Jan 2017 June 2017 Nov 2017 Apr 2018 Sept 2018
57%
55%
57% 55% 56%
54%
46%
52%
55%
50%
34%
37% 38%
38%
35%
41%
45%
39%
36%
43%
6% 6%
4% 5%
7%
4%
7% 7% 7%
5%
3%
1% 2% 2% 1%
2% 2%
2%
Jan-18
Feb-18
M
ar-18
Apr-18
M
ay-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
O
ct-18
Unemployment
Getting better
Getting worse
Same
No opinion
Do you think that the economic conditions in the country as a whole are
getting better or getting worse?
Sources: NCSL (http://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/national-employment-monthly-update.aspx)
and Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx)

5.
Midterm Election Recap
November 20185
But Based on Exit Polling, the Economy Wasn’t the Most Important Issue
36%
say family’s financial situation is
better today than two years ago.
Have new tax laws helped or hurt?
41%
health care
23%
immigration
22%
economy
10%
gun control
Most important issue
29%
22%
45%
HELPED HURT NO IMPACT
Source: 2018 Exit Polls

6.
Midterm Election Recap
November 20186
It was Health Care and Democrats Had the Advantage
41%
health care
23%
immigration
22%
economy
10%
gun control
Most important issue:
69%
say we need major changes to
health care in the U.S.
Who would better protect pre-existing
conditions?
57%
Democrats
35%
Republicans
Source: 2018 Exit Polls

7.
7
2018 Midterm Results:
Notable Results

8.
Midterm Election Recap
November 20188
116th House: Democrats Will Gain the Majority by at Least 27 Seats
Democrats: 225 Republicans: 199 Undeclared: 11

9.
116th Senate: Republicans Will Keep the Majority and Gain at Least Three Seats
Midterm Election Recap
November 20189
Denotes flipped seat
*Two
independents
caucus with
Democrats
Florida’s Senator
Nelson has called for
a recount.
Democrats: 46* Republicans: 51
Independents: 2 Undeclared: 3

10.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201810
Denotes flipped seat
1. Maine (Mills)
2. Wisconsin (Evers)
3. Illinois (Pritzker)
4. Michigan (Whitmer)
5. Kansas (Kelly)
6. New Mexico(Grisham)
7. Nevada (Sisolak)
8. Alaska (Dunleavy)
2019 Gover nors: Democrats Gain Seven Seats
Democrats: 23 Republicans: 26 Undeclared: 1

11.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201811
2019 State Legislatures: Democrats Gain Control of Five State Houses
Democrats: 18 Republicans: 30 Split: 1 Nonpartisan: 1
Denotes change in power
1. Alaska
2. Colorado
3. Maine
4. New Hampshire
5. New York
6. Connecticut
7. Minnesota

12.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201812
Women Ran in Record Numbers and Won Key Races
23
women are
projected to serve
in 116th Senate
98
women are
projected to serve
in 116th House
9
women are
projected to serve as
Governors in 2019
Holding from
23 in the 115th
+14 from 84 +2 from 7
Arizona elects its
first female Senator:
• Either Kyrsten
Sinema or
Martha McSally
Tennessee elects
its first female
Senator:
• Marsha
Blackburn
South Dakota
elects its first
female
Governor:
• Kristi Noem
*Note: these numbers reflect voting members only

13.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201813
Other Notable Firsts
First openly gay governor:
• Jared Polis (D, CO)
First Muslim women elected to the House of Representatives:
• Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-13)
• Ilhan Omar (D, MN-5)
First Native American women elected to the House of Representatives:
• Sharice Davids (D, KS-3)
• Deb Haaland (D, NM-1)
Youngest Congresswomen elected (both are 29 years old):
• Abby Finkenauer (D, IA-1)
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14)
1
2
3
4

14.
14
2018 Midterm Results:
Turnout

15.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201815
Preliminary Tur nout Numbers are High Compared to Previous Midter ms
114 million
2018 2014 2010
83 million
91 million
Source: 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 Exit Polls

16.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201816
37%
30%
33%
DemocratsRepublicans
Independents
Independents Broke for Democrats for the First Time Since 2008
54%
of Independents
voted for Democrats
Source: 2018 Exit Polls

17.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201817
Women Voted for Democrats in Greater Margins
56%
49%
55% 51% 54%
59%
43%
51%
44%
47%
41% 40%
1% 0% 1% 2%
5%
1%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Democrats
Republicans
Other
(53%) (53%) (53%) (51%) (53%) (52%)
Source: 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 Exit Polls

18.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201818
Young Voters Also Voted for Democrats by Wider Margins
66%
58% 60%
54%
55%
67%
32%
42%
45% 43%
36%
32%
2%
0%
3% 3%
9%
1%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Democrats
Republicans
Other
(18%) (11%) (19%) (13%) (19%) (13%)
Source: 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 Exit Polls *18-29 year olds

19.
19
2018 Midterm Results:
Hot Topics

20.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201820
Opinion of Key Figures
Favorable
Unfavorable
Democratic Party
48%
47%
Republican Party
44%
52%
President Trump*
45%
54%
*Numbers for President Trump are for approve/disapprove.
Nancy Pelosi
31%
56%
Source: 2018 Exit Polls

21.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201821
Voters Split on Trump Immigration Policies
Half say they are about right or not tough enough.
Are Donald Trump’s immigration policies:
46%
17%
33%
TOO TOUGH NOT TOUGH
ENOUGH
ABOUT
RIGHT
75%
voted for
Republicans
Among the
23%
who felt immigration was most important
50%
Source: 2018 Exit Polls

22.
Midterm Election Recap
November 201822
Voters are Not in Favor of Investigations
Should Congress impeach
Donald Trump?
View of Mueller’s handling of
Russia investigation:
39%
56%
YES NO
54%
say the Russia investigation is
politically motivated
41%
Approve
46%
Disapprove
Source: 2018 Exit Polls

23.
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