1.
M a r c h 6 , 2 0 1 8
Public Opinion Landscape

2.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide Number
Trump Approval Ratings (January 2017 – March 2018) 3
The 115th Congress 6
Current Issues: Gun Control 12
The Russia Investigation 15
A Look Ahead: The 2018 Midterms 19
A Look Ahead: Redistricting 33
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 20182

3.
Trump Approval Ratings

4.
President Trump approval ratings over time
Disapproval is 8 points higher than Inauguration Day.
Source: Gallup, February 8, 2017-March 4, 2018, n=1500 Adults Daily (http://news.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx)
45
40
43
38
42
38
41
37
35
33
38 39
36
40
37
39
47
54
51
57
52
56 54
58
60
55
58
62
56
60
55
59
57
59
55
2017 Jan 20-29 2017 Apr 3-9 2017 Jun 12-18 2017 Aug 21-27 2017 Oct 30-Nov 5 2018 Jan 8-14
39%
approve
Mar. 4, 2018
47%
disapprove
45%
approve
Jan. 20, 2017
55%
disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 20184

5.
89 88
81
87 87 84 87
82
87
82
78
82
78
83
78
82
77
87
81
87
81
90
86 85
42
35
39
33
36
40
31
37
31
36
31 29 30 31
35
31 33 35
31 34 31
35
31 33
36
30 34
13
8 11
7 10
6
10 12
6 9 6 8 5
9
5 7 5 7 6 9 8
2017 Jan 20-29 2017 Apr 3-9 2017 Jun 12-18 2017 Aug 21-27 2017 Oct 30-Nov 5 2018 Jan 15-21
Republicans Independents Democrats
Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has remained
high throughout his first year
His ap pr ov al r at ing am ong I ndependent s and Dem oc r at s has r em ained lower.
Source: Gallup, February 8, 2017-February 16, 2018, 2018, n=1500 Adults Daily (http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx)
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 20185

6.
The 115th United States Congress
6

7.
A strong plurality of voters disapprove of the Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act of 2017
Half b eliev e t hat t heir t ax es will go up under t he new plan.
13%
13%
27%
12%
35%
Strongly approve
Somewhat
approve
Don’t know
Somewhat
disapprove
Strongly
disapprove
Tax Bill Approval
47%
disapprove
26%
approve
Personal Taxes
50%
14%
25%
12%
Go up Go down Stay the same Don't know
Source: Monmouth University, December 18, 2017 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_121817/)
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 20187

8.
Almost half of Republicans believe the new tax plan will help
the middle class
Dem o c r at s and I ndependent s believ e t he plan will benef it t he wea lt hy.
13%
3%
21%
63%
21%
5%
46%
28%
7%
2%
6%
85%
Unsure
The Poor
The Middle Class
The Wealthy
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Source: Marist, December 4-7, 2017, n=1,267 adults nationally (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3)
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 20188

9.
Three-quarters of Americans favor a pathway to citizenship
for illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children
Dem o c r at s s t r ongly s uppor t DACA, while Republic ans ar e s plit .
74%
21%
5%
Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused
Favor Oppose
50%40%
92%6%
Total support and opposition Democrats
Republicans
Source: Pew Research, January 10-14, 2018 (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/19/public-backs-legal-status-for-immigrants-brought-to-u-s-illegally-as-children-but-not-a-bigger-border-wall/)
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 20189

10.
Majority oppose expanding wall along the U.S. border with
Mexico
Ye t n e a r ly t h r e e- quar t er s of Republic ans s uppor t t he plan.
37%
60%
3%
Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused Favor Oppose
24% 72%
92%85%
Total support and opposition Democrats
Republicans
13%
Source: Pew Research, January 10-14, 2018 (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/19/public-backs-legal-status-for-immigrants-brought-to-u-s-illegally-as-children-but-not-a-bigger-border-wall/)
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201810

11.
President Trump released an infrastructure plan on Monday,
February 12
The num ber of Am er ic ans lis t ing inf r as t r uc t ur e im pr ov em ent as t he t op pr ior it y f or t he
c o u n t r y h a s g r o wn o v e r t h e la s t s e v e n y e a r s .
33%
30%
39%
42%
36%
49%48%
52%
46% 47%
51%
39%
16% 16%
9%
12% 11%
2% 1% 1% 0% 1%2% 1% 1%
Jan 5-9, 2011 Jan 11-16, 2012 Jan 9-13, 2013 Jan 15-19, 2014 Jan 7-11, 2015 Jan 4-9, 2017 Jan 10-15, 2018
Top priority Important but lower priority Not too important Should not be done Don't know/Refused
Importance of Infrastructure Improvement
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201811
Source: Pew Research Center, January 10-15, 2018, n=1,053 (http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/01/29144651/1-25-18-Priorities-topline-for-release1.pdf)

12.
12
Current Issues: Gun Control

13.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201813
Public support of stricter gun laws has solidified over the
past year and a half
52
47
54 54
60 60 59
66
31
36 36 36
42 42
50
45
4 5 3 3 4 4 3 3
1-Nov-15 1-Feb-16 1-May-16 1-Aug-16 1-Nov-16 1-Feb-17 1-May-17 1-Aug-17 1-Nov-17 1-Feb-18
Support Oppose Don't know/No Answer
Oct 1, 2017:
Las Vegas
shooting
June 12, 2016:
Pulse nightclub
shooting
Nov 5, 2017:
Sutherland
Springs church
shooting
Dec 2, 2015:
San Bernardino
shooting
Feb 14,
2018:
Parkland
school
shooting
Source: Quinnipiac University, February 20,, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02202018_ugbw51.pdf/)

14.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201814
Opinion on methods to end gun violence in schools is split
along partisan lines
Dem o c r at s s up por t s t r ic t er gun laws while Republic an s f av or s c hool s af et y m eas ur es s uc h
as addit ional m et al det ec t or s and ar m ed t eac her s in s c hools .
3%
21%
36%
39%
12%
38%
41%
9%
3%
6%
28%
63%
6%
20%
34%
40%
Don't know/No
answer
Armed teachers
Metal detectors
Stricter gun laws
Total
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Source: Quinnipiac University, February 20,, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02202018_ugbw51.pdf/)

15.
15
The Russia Investigation

16.
Three quarters believe that the Russian government tried to
influence the 2016 election.
Nin e- out - of - t en Dem oc r at s and s light ly m or e t han half of Republic ans s ay Rus s ia
at t em pt ed t o inf luenc e t he U. S. elec t ion.
76%
18%
6%
Yes/Tried influence
No
Don't know/No answer
93%
4%
3%
Yes/Tried influence
No
Don't know/No answer
55%35%
10%
Yes/Tried influence
No
Don't know/No answer
Source: Quinnipiac University, February 21, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02212018_uplo98.pdf/
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201816
Democrats RepublicansTotal

17.
More than half of voters believe that Special Counsel Robert
Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into links between
the Trump campaign and the Russian government.
Thr ee - quar t er s of Dem oc r at s v iew t he inv es t igat ion as f air, c om par ed t o only one - t hir d of
Repu blic ans .
56%
28%
16%
Yes/Fair
No/Not Fair
Don't know/No answer
77%
14%
8%
Yes/Fair
No/Not Fair
Don't know/No answer
35%
46%
19%
Yes/Fair
No/Not Fair
Don't know/No answer
Source: Quinnipiac University, February 6, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02062018_uebh42.pdf/)
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201817
Total Democrats Republicans

18.
Just over half believe that President Trump has attempted to
derail or obstruct Robert Mueller’s investigation.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201818
56%
12%
86%
53%
37%
83%
11%
41%
7%
5%
3%
6%
Independents
Republicans
Democrats
Total
Yes No Don't know/No answer
Source: Quinnipiac University, February 6, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02062018_uebh42.pdf/)

19.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201819
Even amidst the school shooting in Parkland, FL the Russia
investigation was the top topic of conversation on Twitter over
the past 90 days
DACA r e m a in s a d is c u s s io n wit h lim it e d m o m e n t u m , r e g a r d le s s o f ju d ic ia l r u lin g s a n d
Cong r e s s ional inac t ion.
Term Percentage Tweets
Russia Investigation 3.6% 568,008
Gun control 2.63% 416,684
Tax Bill 1.21% 191,370
Border Wall 1.01% 160,851
DACA .023% 3,716
Total 8.4% 1,328,178

20.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201820
Social media discussions of Congress are largely coastal,
with much of the Midwest less engaged.

21.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201821
Alabama Special
Election
Jan 12: Trump comments
on immigration
Jan. 30: State of
the Union
Jan. 20: Trump’s first
year; 2nd annual
women’s march
Public Discussion on Twitter
Sin c e Pr e s id e n t Tr u m p ’s in a u g u r a t io n , d iff e r e n t e v e n t s h a v e c a u s e d p e a k s in d is c u s s io n
on Twit t er.

22.
22
A Look Ahead: The 2018 Midterms

23.
WHAT’S AT STAKE
Republicans Democrats
238 193
All 435 seats being contested.
Democrats need to win a net of
24 seats from the Republicans
to gain control of the House.**
U.S. House:
U.S. Senate:
Republicans Democrats
51 49*
34 seats being contested.
Democrats need to win a net of 2
seats from the Republicans to
gain control of the Senate.
* 47 Democrats + 2 Independents **4 current vacancies ***Alaska Governor Bill Walker is an Independent.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201823
Rs Ds
Governor Control*** 33 16
Leg Chamber Control 67 32
36 of 50 Governor races and
87 of 99 State Legislature
chambers across the country are
being contested.
State Governments:

24.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201824
MIDTERMS: Since 1946, midterm elections during a
President’s first term have often resulted in loses in one or
both chambers for the President’s party.
President Year
Senate Seats
Lost/Gained
House Seats
Lost/Gained
Shift in power in at least one chamber?
Harry Truman (D) 1946 -12 -55 Yes: GOP takes both chambers
Dwight Eisenhower (R) 1954 -1 -18 Yes: Democrats take both chambers
John Kennedy (D) 1962 +4 -4 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Lyndon Johnson (D) 1966 -3 -47 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Richard Nixon (R) 1970 +2 -12 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Gerald Ford (R) 1974 -3 -43 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Jimmy Carter (D) 1978 -3 -11 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Ronald Reagan (R) 1982 - -26 No: GOP retains Senate, Democrats retain House
George H. W. Bush (R) 1990 -1 -8 No: Democrats retain both chambers
Bill Clinton (D) 1994 -8 -52 Yes: GOP takes both chambers
George W. Bush (R) 2002 +2 +6 Yes: GOP takes House and retains Senate
Barack Obama (D) 2010 -6 -63 Yes: GOP takes House, Democrats retain Senate

25.
2018 map favors Republicans retaining the Senate
Democrats: 49* Republicans: 51
*Two independents caucus
with Democrats
K
Y
G
A
N
C
Dems in states Trump won:
1. Florida (Nelson)
2. Indiana (Donnelly)
3. Michigan (Stabenow)
4. Missouri (McCaskill)
5. Montana (Tester)
6. North Dakota (Heitkamp)
7. Ohio (Brown)
8. Pennsylvania (Casey)
9. West Virginia (Manchin)
10. Wisconsin (Baldwin)
States Democrats plan
to target in 2018: :
1. Nevada (Heller)
2. Arizona (Flake)
3. Tennessee (Corker)
4. Texas (Cruz)
Democrat Doug Jones
defeated Republican
Roy Moore in Alabama
on December 12, 2017
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201825

26.
Four Republican Senators and one Democratic Senator have
announced their retirement.
Sen. Jeff Flake (R-
Arizona)
announced he
would not seek re-
election to the
Senate in 2018 on
October 24, 2017.
Sen. Bob Corker
(R-Tennessee)
announced he
would not seek
re-election to the
Senate in 2018
on September
26, 2017.
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-
Utah) announced he
would not seek re-
election to the Senate in
2018 on January 2,
2018. Former Governor
and Presidential
candidate Mitt Romney
has announced that he
is running for this seat.
Sen. Al Franken (D-Minnesota) resigned from
the Senate on December 7, 2017 amid
allegations of sexual misconduct. A special
election will take place in November 2018 in
Minnesota, a state that Hillary Clinton won in
2016 by 1.5 points. Former Lt. Governor Tina
Smith filled the vacated seat on January 2, 2018
and plans to run in the 2018 special election.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201826
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-
Mississippi) announced on
March 5, 2018 that he will
resign April 1, 2018 due to his
declining health. There will be
a special election for the seat
in November 2018.

27.
31 Republican and 15 Democratic Representatives have
announced their retirement from the House of
Representatives.
Republicans:
19 are retiring outright including
Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49).
12 are running for higher office
including Rep. Jim Renacci (OH-
16) and Rep. Martha McSally
(AZ-2).
Democrats:
7 are retiring outright including Rep.
John Conyers (MI-13), who has
resigned.
8 are running for higher office
including Rep. Kyrsten Sinema
(AZ-9), Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX-
16), and Rep. Jacky Rosen (NV-3).
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201827

28.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201828
HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Republicans seeking higher office
Representative District Higher office sought
Diane Black Tennessee 6th Candidate for Governor, Bill Haslam (R) is term-limited
Luke Messer Indiana 6th Challenging Senator Joe Donnelly (D)
Todd Rokita Indiana 4th Challenging Senator Joe Donnelly
Steve Pearce New Mexico 2nd Candidate for Governor, Susana Martinez (R) is term-limited
Raul Labrador Idaho 1st Candidate for Governor, Butch Otter (R) will not seek re-election
Jim Renacci Ohio 16th Challenging Senator Sherrod Brown (D)
Lou Barletta Pennsylvania 11th Challenging Senator Bob Casey (D)
Kristi Noem South Dakota at-large Candidate for Governor, Dennis Daugaard (R) is term-limited
Evan Jenkins West Virginia 3rd Challenging Senator Joe Manchin (D)
Ron DeSantis Florida 6th Candidate for Governor, Rick Scott (R) is term-limited
Martha McSally Arizona 2nd Candidate for Senate, Jeff Flake (R) will not seek re-election

29.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201829
HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Republicans retiring outright
Representative District
Bob Goodlatte Virginia 6th
Jeb Hensarling* Texas 5th
Rodney Frelinghuysen New Jersey 11th
Trey Gowdy South Carolina 4th
Darrell Issa California 49th
Joe Barton* Texas 6th
Lamar Smith Texas 21st
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Florida 27th
Charlie Dent Pennsylvania 15th
Dave Reichert Washington 8th
Pat Tiberi^ Ohio 12th
Frank LoBiondo New Jersey 2nd
Lynn Jenkins Kansas 2nd
Representative District
Sam Johnson Texas 3rd
John Duncan, Jr. Tennessee 2nd
Ted Poe Texas 2nd
Dave Trott Michigan 11th
Tim Murphy*^ Pennsylvania 18th
Trent Franks* Arizona 8th
Blake Farenthold* Texas 27th
Bill Shuster Pennsylvania 9th
Gregg Harper Mississippi 3rd
Ed Royce California 39th
Patrick Meehan* Pennsylvania 7th
Tom Rooney Florida 17th
* Indicates leaving in the midst of controversy
^ Indicates resigning before end of term

30.
HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Democrats seeking higher office
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201830
Representative District Higher office sought
Kyrsten Sinema Arizona 9th Candidate for Senate seat previously held by Jeff Flake (R)
Jared Polis Colorado 2nd Candidate for Governor, John Hickenlooper (D) is term-limited
Tim Walz Minnesota 1st Candidate for Governor, Mark Dayton (D) will not seek re-election
Beto O’Rourke Texas 16th Candidate for Senate seat currently held by Ted Cruz (R)
John Delaney Maryland 6th Running for President in 2020
Jacky Rosen Nevada 3rd Candidate for Senate seat currently held by Dean Heller (R)
Colleen Hanabusa Hawaii 1st Candidate for Governor, challenging incumbent David Ige (D)
Michelle Lujan Grisham New Mexico 1st Candidate for Governor, Susana Martinez (R) is term-limited

31.
HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Democrats retiring outright
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201831
Representative District
Luis Gutierrez Illinois 4th
John Conyers*^ Michigan 13th
Sander Levin Michigan 9th
Bob Brady Pennsylvania 1st
Carol Shea-Porter New Hampshire 1st
Niki Tsongas Massachusetts 3rd
Gene Green Texas 29th
Ruben Kihuen* Nevada 4th
Rick Nolan Minnesota 8th
* Indicates retiring in the midst of controversy
^ Indicates resigning before end of term

32.
Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans in the
2018 generic ballot.
Source: FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/), February 28, 2018; estimate based on polls from 23 different pollsters
42.8%
47.8%
44.1%
47.4% 45.2% 46.2% 47.1% 46.2% 45.5% 46.6% 48.4% 45.8%
49.9%
46.1% 46.4%
38.1% 40.6%
36.9%
39.9% 37.9% 38.4% 39.8%
36.2% 36.0%
39.0% 37.2% 37.7% 37.0%
40.7% 39.1%
15-Apr-17
22-Apr-17
29-Apr-17
6-May-17
13-May-17
20-May-17
27-May-17
3-Jun-17
10-Jun-17
17-Jun-17
24-Jun-17
1-Jul-17
8-Jul-17
15-Jul-17
22-Jul-17
29-Jul-17
5-Aug-17
12-Aug-17
19-Aug-17
26-Aug-17
2-Sep-17
9-Sep-17
16-Sep-17
23-Sep-17
30-Sep-17
7-Oct-17
14-Oct-17
21-Oct-17
28-Oct-17
4-Nov-17
11-Nov-17
18-Nov-17
25-Nov-17
2-Dec-17
9-Dec-17
16-Dec-17
23-Dec-17
30-Dec-17
6-Jan-18
13-Jan-18
20-Jan-18
27-Jan-18
3-Feb-18
10-Feb-18
17-Feb-18
24-Feb-18
Democrats Republicans
April 15, 2017 Feb. 28, 2018
D +5 D +7
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201832

33.
A Look Ahead: Redistricting

34.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201834
Congressional districts will be redrawn following the 2020
census.
I n m os t s t at es , t his will be ov er s een by s t at e legis lat ur es t hat begin t o be elec t ed in 2018.
Responsible party Number of states States
State legislature 37
Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois,
Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina,
Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Independent
commission
4 Arizona, California, Idaho, Washington
Politician commission 2 Hawaii, New Jersey
Member at large – no
redistricting requires
7
Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont,
Wyoming

35.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201835
Congressional districts will be redrawn following the 2020
census.
K
Y
G
ARedrawn by state legislature
Redrawn by independent commission
Redrawn by politician commission
N/A

36.
Public Opinion Landscape
March 6, 201836
A Tale of Two Maps: Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania State Supreme Court ruled that the 2011 Congressional District map is
unconstitutional and must be redrawn due to partisan gerrymandering.
The PA delegation currently has 12 Republicans, 5 Democrats and one vacancy (Murphy R-PA-18).
With the redrawn map, Democrats would gain 3 seats based on the 2016 vote tallies. However, PA
Republican lawmakers have appealed the State Court’s ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Source:Philly.com (http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-supreme-court-map-congressional-districts-2018-elections-20180219.html)

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