Next Wave of Utility-Scale Solar PV in the U.S.
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GTM Research's Colin Smith outlines the future of utility-scale solar in the United States
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Next Wave of Utility-Scale Solar PV in the U.S.
- 1. September 16, 2015 Next Wave of Utility Solar Procurement The shift away from RPS Colin Smith Solar Analyst Smith@gtmresearch.com
- 2. www.gtmresearch.com -2- About Greentech Media NEWS/ONLINE RESEARCH EVENT Greentech Media delivers business-to- business news, analysis and events at the forefront of the global energy transformation. Our coverage area extends across the clean energy industry with a focus on solar power and the electric utility market’s evolution. Greentech Media’s industry- leading coverage is provided by a team of analysts from our market intelligence arm, GTM Research, as well as our world-class journalists and global network of expert contributors. GTM Research is the market analysis and consulting arm of Greentech Media. GTM Research is comprised of analysts covering solar, grid edge, and energy storage markets. Our analysts combine diverse backgrounds in energy, environmental, emerging technology, information technology and strategic consulting sectors. This diverse team provides critical and timely market analysis in the form of research reports, consulting, and data subscription services. Greentech Media and GTM Research experts come together to produce all of Greentech Media’s industry conferences throughout the year. These summits provide a platform for our latest market intelligence and draw together the industry influencers from organizations across the value chain.
- 3. www.gtmresearch.com 2015 & 2016: the final sprint -3- 1 Key Topics Covered Next Wave of Utility PV Procurement2 PPA pricing landscape3 Market Outlook 2017 & Beyond4
- 4. www.gtmresearch.com -4- Utility PV Market Outlook 2015 - 2016 267 784 1,803 2,855 3,922 4,560 7,792 1,655 2,070 2,310 3,027 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E ShareofU.S.PVInstallations (%) UtilityPVInstallations(MWdc) Installations (MWdc) Market Share (%)
- 5. www.gtmresearch.com -5- Procurement outside the RPS 6503 3350 2634 2241 912 574 260 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 RPS Utility RFP PURPA/ Bilateral Contract Post 2016 COD Offsite C&I UOG Wholesale MWDc
- 6. www.gtmresearch.com -6- States with Installed non-RPS utility PV MT WY ID WA OR NV UT CA AZ ND SD NE CO NM TX OK KS AR LA MO IA MN WI IL IN KY TN MS AL GA FL SC NC VA WV OH MI NY PA MD DE NJ CT RI MA ME VT NH
- 7. www.gtmresearch.com -7- States with Contracted non-RPS utility PV pipeline >100MWdc MT WY ID WA OR NV UT CA AZ ND SD NE CO NM TX OK KS AR LA MO IA MN WI IL IN KY TN MS AL GA FL SC NC VA WV OH MI NY PA MD DE NJ CT RI MA ME VT NH
- 8. www.gtmresearch.com -8- PPA Prices by Contract Execution Date $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PPAPrice($/MWh) Contract Execution Date Utility PV PPA Prices by Contract Execution Date
- 9. www.gtmresearch.com -9- Utility PV Market Outlook 2017 - 2020 267 784 1,803 2,855 3,922 4,560 7,792 1,655 2,070 2,310 3,027 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E ShareofU.S.PVInstallations (%) UtilityPVInstallations(MWdc) Installations (MWdc) Market Share (%)
- 10. www.gtmresearch.com Geographically Diversified: Utility PV in a more diverse set of markets -10- 1 The Next Wave of Utility Solar Procurement Competitive with natural gas and wholesale electricity2 Large portion will be driven by non PRS demand3 2017 cautious optimism4
- 11. www.gtmresearch.com Interested in the content from this presentation? Please contact Inquiry@gtmreserach.com Interested in learning more about the US utility solar market? Check Out: GTM Research’s Utility PV Market Tracker Please contact freedman@gtmresearch.com Interested in learning more about the entire US Solar market? Check Out: GTM Research/SEIA’s U.S. Solar Market Insight, Q3 2015 -11- Thank You!
Notas do Editor
- In the remainder of 2015 through 2016, we are going to see 18 GW come online in 18 Months, again the bulk of that will be from utility PV The utility PV market continues to serve as the bedrock for installation growth in the U.S. solar markets 52% of capacity installed in Q2 2015 across all three market segments and we expect 60% of installed capacity in 2015 Looking ahead to the rest of 2015, we expect utility procurement efforts to slow, as developers double down on efforts to complete ambitious project pipelines before the end of 2016. RPS is still the primary driver and we will see many of the largest systems on record reaching commercial operation date. the utility PV market’s installation volumes is increasingly characterized by centralized PV procurement for reasons other than meeting an RPS obligation.
- Currently 7.9 GWdc of the utility PV pipeline is procured outside of PRS obligations. This is roughtly 47% of the pipeline and also in indicative of the volume of utility PV that is competitive with wholesale electricity prices Utility RFP: More and more utilities are releasing RFPs independent of state RPS obligations. PURPA rules: A number of developers have amassed impressive project pipelines by leveraging the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) to lock in fixed-price PPAs that are based on utilities’ avoided costs of peaking generation. - This differs from state to state as each one calculated avoided cost differently - Many of these deals are negotiated bilaterally as well between developers and the utilities to reduce costs and obstacles further Corporate procurement: As mentioned, corporate entities and other large energy users are signing last-ditch PPAs with developers that can bring projects on-line before the end of 2016. - We see many organizations accessing power through direct access or contract for differences UOG – more and more we seeing instances where utility are Wholesale
- Currently there have been about 200 MW dc of non RPS installed in the US. Between 2010 and 1H 2015, steep cost reductions have expanded the universe of state markets where solar is unchained by state incentive funding or RPS driven procurement
- Currently there is a pipeline of 7.9 GW of non RPS utility PV Emerging markets in Texas and the Southeast: As utilities in Texas and the Southeast retire or plan to retire coal fleets ahead of schedule due to EPA coal ash and mercury standards, utility PV is being procured in tandem with combined-cycle natural gas plants to fill in the void. - Alabama power just approved 500 MW of power - South Mississippi Electric power 250 MW solicitation - Arkansas power Underlying all three of these emerging drivers of demand is the fact that utility PV is proving to be an economically competitive resource to meet utilities’ peak power needs.
- As it currently stands, more than 7 GWdc of centralized PV capacity has been procured by utilities based on solar’s competitiveness with natural-gas alternatives. PPA prices continue to fall driven by cost reductions By 2019: Utility PV PPA prices are expected to return to late 2015/early 2016 levels CCAs, munis, co-ops, and corporates interested in offsite centralized PV are expected to play a larger role in procurement, focused on hedging against natural gas price uncertainty
- My colleague Cory Honeyman described the outlook at SPI last year as “bleak” Since then we have seen promising signs that the post 2017 outlook has turned to being more optimistic While utility PV project economics remain the most sensitive to the loss of the ITC, conversations with developers have turned from bleak to slightly optimistic about an incremental recovery between 2017 and 2020. With a growing share of utility PV being procured based on cost competitiveness, rather than RPS driven demand, the market segment is seeing a majority of 2017 installations packed into 2016 With EPC firms’ pipelines at full capacity over the next 16 months, signs point to a portion of the 2016 pipeline spilling over into 2017, with developers leveraging flexible commercial operation dates or accepting financial penalties to bring a project on-line behind schedule to avoid scrapping the project altogether. By 2019: Utility PV PPA prices are expected to return to late 2015/early 2016 levels CCAs, munis, co-ops, and corporates interested in offsite centralized PV are expected to play a larger role in procurement, focused on hedging against natural gas price uncertainty When does the Clean Power Plan become a material driver of procurement? Given that utility scale PV projects can only be used to meet near term compliance obligations, and sluggish timelines for rolling out state implementation plans, the CPP is expected to fuel deployment in the post 2020 timeframe