This document discusses the effects of drought and land degradation on agriculture in several regions. It finds that there is medium confidence that some areas have experienced more intense and longer droughts in recent decades, particularly in Southern Europe, West Africa, and East Asia. It also finds medium confidence that some regions may see increased drought duration and intensity, especially in the Mediterranean, Central North America, and Southern Africa. The document analyzes drought hazard, land degradation, exposure of croplands, rangelands and forests. It also examines drought vulnerability based on economic, population and land use indicators. Countries are ranked based on drought hazard, land degradation levels and percentage of areas affected by both.

1. Effects of Drought and Land Degradation on Agriculture
Vegetation Losses in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern
Europe and the North Africa & West Asia Regions
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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Prof. Wadid ERIAN
The League of Arab States LAS
Lead Author in IPCC - SREX , WGII
Member in UNISDR GAR Advisory Board
Advisor World Bank 2012
Bassem Katlan, GIS specialist.
The Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones and Drylands ACSAD,
Kishan Khoday, Regional Practice Leader for Environment & Energy and
ZubairMurshed, Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor,
United Nations Development Programme, UNDP Regional Center in Cairo

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Source: IPCC 2012

3. KEY MESSAGE
“there is MEDIUM CONFIDENCE that since the 1950s some
regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer
droughts, in particular in SOUTHERN EUROPE, WEST
AFRICA, AND EAST ASIA.
Also new studies have improved the understanding of the
mechanisms leading to drought. We could say that there is
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE in a projected increase of duration and
intensity of soil moisture and hydrological drought in some
regions of the world, in particular in the MEDITERRANEAN,
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, AND SOUTHERN AFRICA.
We could have said stronger confidence than medium in the projections but definitional issues and lack
of data preclude higher confidence than medium in observations of drought changes”.

4. Precipitation deficit is defined as a
METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
A period of abnormally dry weather long enough
to cause a serious hydrological imbalance.
Drought is a relative term
shortage of precipitation related to
particular activity
during the growing season affects yield - SOIL
MOISTURE DROUGHT, or
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT, Storage changes in soil moisture and
groundwater are also affected by increases
in actual evapotranspiration in addition to
reductions in precipitation.
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A MEGADROUGHT
is drought, lasting much longer than normal,
usually a decade or more.
during the runoff season affects water supplies –
HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT.
Source: Erian et al 2012 modified from IPCC 2012

5. AGRICULTURE DROUGHT
HAZARD
EXPO
LAND COVER/USE
SURE POPULATION
Land Degradation
Vegetation LAND –USE including Negative change in
vegetation Cover Land degradation in Arab Countries
and River’s Basins
LOSS IN CROPS
SPEI
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT SOCIO
ECONOMICA LOSSES
AVAILABLE STATISTICAL
DATA ANALYSIS
HAZ
ARD
VULNER
ABILITY
RISK
Affected
POPULATION
COUNTRY
CAPACITY
Source: Erian et al 2012

6. Drought Hazard

7.  Class 1: No Drought hazard
covers 2.50 Milliard Ha of the study
area and represents 61.89%.
 Class 2 Slight Drought Hazard
covers 0.61 Milliard Ha of the study
area and represents 15.16%
 Class 3 Moderate Drought
Hazard covers 0.57 Milliard Ha of
the study area and represents
14.05% ; and
 Class 4 High Drought Hazard
covers 0.17 Milliard Ha of the study
area and represents 4.28%
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8. Countries were ranked according to the total present of the ADH severity during the
last decade (2000 – 2011), as follows:
Group 1: extremely high : ADH affected, more than 85 % of the total country area, the
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following countries: Lebanon, Gaza Strip, Portugal, Qatar, and Greece
Group 2, Very high: ADH affected 75% - 85% of the total country area the following
countries: . Morocco, Kuwait, West Bank, Syria, Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea
Group 3, high: ADH affected 60 - 75% of the total country area, the following countries:
Spain, Italy, Albania, Gabon, Tunisia, Iraq, Djibouti, Macedonia, Iran, Namibia, and
Israel;
Group 4, Moderate ADH affected 45 - 60% of the total country area, the following
countries: Croatia, Somalia, South France, Ivory Coast, Turkey, Nigeria, Senegal,
Liberia, Kenya’ Sierra Leanne and, Ghana;
Group 5, low to moderate extend ADH affected 30 - 45% of the total country area the
following countries: Serbia, Western Sahara, Ethiopia, Benin, Mali, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Togo, Bosnia & Herzegovina,
Botswana, Sudan and south Sudan, Cameroon. Armenia and Chad,
Group 6, Low ADH affected 15 - 30% of the total country area, the following countries:
Yemen, Niger, Jordan, Congo, Algeria, Mauritania, Montenegro, Oman, , Libya
and Egypt; and finally,
Group 7, Very low ADH affected less than 15% of the total country area, the following
countries: Zimbabwe, Guinea, Malawi, Gambia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Angola,
Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau, Congo D R C, Rwanda,
Zambia, Central African Republic and Swaziland

9. The high sensitivity of vegetation to
climate forcing may result in rapid
land use changes and high
vulnerability to land degradation, as
result of human action.
When drought conditions end,
recovery of vegetation may follow but
such recovery process may last for
longer periods of time.
This is coupled with a population
increase within this region rushing at
scary rates further increase stresses
on natural resources.
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10. The overall countries affected areas by land degradation in percent shows that:
 Very high affected in more than 75% of their areas: Lesotho, Kuwait,
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Djibouti, Sierra Leanne, Zambia, D R Congo and Andorra.
 High affected in 50- 75% of their areas: France, Swaziland, Gaza Strip,
Saudi Arabia, R Congo, Zimbabwe, San Marino, Guinea, Liberia, Ethiopia,
Botswana, Comoros, Eritrea, Iraq, Syria, South Africa, Angola,
Madagascar, Portugal, Mauritius, Uganda, CAR, Nigeria, Cameroon,
Rwanda, Croatia, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Tanzania, Guinea-
Bissau, Burundi, Somalia and Benin.
 Moderately affected in 25- 50% of their areas: Kenya, Niger, Gabon, Sudan
& South Sudan, Egypt, Mali, Yemen, Qatar, Libya, Chad, Israel, Spain,
Italy, Togo, Bahrain, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Ghana, Gambia, Malawi, Oman,
Cyprus, West Bank, S. T. & Principe, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, U A
Emirates, Georgia, Iran, Jordan and Tunisia.
 Low affected in1 less than 25% of their areas: Senegal, Namibia, Turkey,
Morocco, Bulgaria, Albania and Greece.

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12. Approximately 14.1% of the studied area (0.52 billion hectares) is affected by both
LD and ADH; out of this percentage :
1.6% is affected by severe levels of both LD and ADH,
4.4% is affected by severe LD and moderate ADH,
0.4% is affected by moderate LD and Severe ADH, and
1.4% is affected by moderate levels of both LD and ADH.
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Country
S HAZ_ M
DEG
S HAZ_ H
DEG
N
M HAZ_ M
DEG
M HAZ_
H DEG
H HAZ_ M
DEG
H HAZ_
H DEG
Total
Affected
Kuwait 2.90 5.30 27.70 9.50 13.90 20.20 20.40 64.00
Bahrain - - 43.60 39.40 - 10.30 6.70 56.40
Djibouti 3.20 13.40 44.40 4.60 26.50 1.30 6.50 38.90
France 0.40 3.80 57.90 1.40 19.80 1.00 15.60 37.80
Syria 4.50 11.70 50.60 3.30 15.90 1.80 12.10 33.10
Portugal 1.70 21.60 44.10 1.00 12.70 1.30 17.60 32.60
Iraq 2.60 9.30 55.80 4.00 12.50 2.70 13.00 32.20
Croatia 0.10 0.40 68.80 2.60 17.40 1.60 9.10 30.70
Somalia 0.40 1.00 68.70 4.20 12.60 2.00 11.10 29.90
Qatar 12.80 4.20 56.80 13.20 6.00 4.20 2.90 26.30
Gaza Strip 0.90 32.50 41.90 - 17.90 4.70 2.10 24.70
Eritrea 5.40 19.60 50.50 4.70 15.60 1.20 3.20 24.70
Italy 0.60 3.50 71.40 1.60 12.70 1.00 9.30 24.60
Spain 0.90 7.90 67.80 1.60 12.10 1.10 8.50 23.30
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.00 0.20 80.10 1.60 9.40 1.70 7.00 19.70
Equatorial Guinea 2.00 19.70 59.00 1.10 15.70 0.30 2.10 19.20
South Africa 0.90 2.60 77.90 5.40 13.10 - - 18.50
Gabon 1.50 12.70 67.40 1.10 9.90 0.60 6.80 18.40
Ethiopia 0.70 7.30 73.70 1.50 10.40 1.00 5.40 18.30
Kenya 0.50 4.00 77.80 1.70 10.30 1.00 4.80 17.80

13. Exposure to Drought

14.  Impacts on Rainfed Croplands
The total affected area by combined ADH
and LD is covering 239.86 million
hectares represents 5.51% of the total
studied area, almost 12.18 % from total
Rainfed Croplands area,
Countries affected over 15% could be
ranked as follows:
Lebanon, West Bank, Albania, Senegal,
Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Italy,
Croatia, Sierra Leone, Jordan, Burkina
Faso, Israel, Cote d'Ivory, Nigeria,
Greece, Morocco, Spain, Portugal,
Armenia, Syria, Liberia, Bosnia &
Herzeg, Ghana and Montenegro
.
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15.  Impacts on Rangelands The total
affected areas by combined ADH
and LD is covering 418.76 million
hectares represents 9.62 % of the
total studied area, almost 42.5% of
the total rangelands area,
Countries affected over 15% could be
ranked as follows:
Namibia, Portugal, Spain, Somalia,
Eritrea, Kenya, Jordan, South Africa,
Ethiopia, Greece, Botswana, West
Bank, Togo, Djibouti, Lebanon,
Morocco, Benin, Syria, Sudan,
Nigeria and Niger.
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16. Impacts on Forests:
The total affected Forests area by
combined ADH and LD is covering 99.61
million hectares represents 2.29% of the
total studied area,
Almost 14.94% of the total forests area,
Countries affected over 25% could be
ranked as follows:
Gabon, Eq. Guinea, Liberia, Macedonia,
Cote d'Ivory, Cameroon, Greece, Italy,
Ghana, Benin, Croatia, Sierra Leone,
Albania , Portugal, Bosnia & Herzeg,
Serbia, Congo and Nigeria
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17. Drought Vulnerability

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i. ECONOMICAL INDICATOR (Ec)
EcA : GDP in Million US$.
EcB : GDP Growth rate NGI US$.
EcC : Agriculture Share In GDP%.
EcD : Labor Force% in Agriculture
EcE : Unemployment Rate:%.
EcF. : Below Poverty Line %
EcG : Agriculture, value added per agri worker (USD) 2009-1999
EcH. : Evaluation of the Value of Total Agri.$ Food Production
EcI : Value (millions of 2004-2006 in ($).
EcJ : Change in crop production value per ha %
ii. POPULATION (Po)
PoA : Mean Population Density person/Km2
PoB : People in working age (15-64) years %
PoC. : Population growth rate
PoD. : Net migration rate: for each 1000 person
PoE. : Females % of Labour force in Agriculture- 2011.
PoF. : Average Agriculture population Change 2011 - 2001%
iii. LAND USE (Lu)
LuA. : Arable Area % from Total
LuB : Change in Arable Areas 1999 - 2009
LuC : Permanent Crops Area % from Total
LuD : Change in Permanent Crops Areas 1999 - 2009
LuE : Forest Area % from Total
LuF. : Change in Forest Areas 1999 - 2009
iv. WATER AVAILABILITY
WaA : Total Renewable Water Resources cu km
WaB : Fresh water Withdrawal Total Cu km/y
WaC : Fresh water Withdrawal agricultural %
WaD : Fresh water Withdrawal per Capita Cu km/y

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Vulnerability classes Countries
High to Moderate Vulnerability: moderate
coverage of ADH 45-60 %, moderate severity
and very Low to low capacity
Somalia, Senegal and Kenya.
Moderate Vulnerability: high coverage of
ADH 75 – 85%, moderate severity and
moderate capacity
Eritrea, Morocco, Syria and Eq Guinea
(Kuwait, has a very low vegetation cover).
Moderate Vulnerability: high to moderate
coverage of ADH 60-75 %, moderate severity
and high to moderate capacity
Tunisia, Djibouti, Namibia, Gabon, Iraq and Italy.
Moderate to Low Vulnerability: high to
moderate coverage of ADH 60-75 %,
moderate severity and moderate to high
capacity
Spain, Portugal, Israel and Iran.
Moderate to Low Vulnerability: very high
coverage of ADH >85 %, high severity and
very high capacity
Greece and, Lebanon
(Qatar, has a very low vegetation cover)
Moderate to Low Vulnerability: moderate
coverage of ADH 45-60 %, low severity and
very low to low capacity
Cote D Lvoire, Sierra Leanne, Ghana, Liberia and
Nigeria
Moderate to Low Vulnerability: moderate to
low coverage ADH 30-45 %, moderate to low
severity and moderate to low capacity
South Africa, Burkina Faso, Chad, Benin, Togo,
Ethiopia, Botswana, Cameroon, Sudan, Mali, Saudi
Arabia and UAE ( UAE has a very low vegetation
cover).
Low Vulnerability: moderate coverage of
ADH 45-60 %, moderate severity and high to
moderate capacity
France and Turkey
Low Vulnerability: low coverage of ADH 15-
30 %, low severity and high to moderate
capacity
Jordan, Niger, Yemen, Mauritania, Algeria, Libya,
Oman, Malawi, Burundi, Angola, Zimbabwe, Lesotho,
Mozambique, Gambia, Tanzania, DR Congo, Zambia,
Swaziland, and Rwanda
Low Vulnerability: low coverage of ADH 15-
30 %, low severity and low capacity
Egypt, Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
Low Vulnerability: low coverage of ADH less
than 15 %, low severity and low capacity
Madagascar, Uganda, Central Africa

20. ARAB REGION
3.d. Drought RISK –
losses

21. Potential Estimated Losses
TOTAL Studied
Countries
Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$
235.22 82470 201490
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No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
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Few Countries
Ranked
Losses in Million Ha
Losses in Million
US$
No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
Congo, DRC 28055794.1 11172.79 27912.00
Ethiopia 21878255.59 8418.26 20911.37
Nigeria 17538679.04 5717.73 13771.03
South Africa 16032279.37 6004.53 14846.67
Tanzania 12089148.92 4762.85 11877.77
Zimbabwe 9036187.4 3433.42 8510.55
Sudan 8806895.77 2306.84 5276.82
Somalia 8236064.16 2683.34 6461.93
Uganda 8039381.63 3213.51 8032.86
Kenya 7823062.7 2840.00 6983.38
Botswana 7009433.62 2501.73 6132.53
Zambia 6467461.31 2575.98 6435.53
Chad 6466895.06 2135.89 5157.93
France 6095833.07 1863.65 4427.40
Spain 5318089.94 1421.79 3270.03
Mozambique 5226077.9 2034.93 5064.95
Burkina Faso 5082968.03 1669.01 4025.68
Turkey 4993569.89 1509.69 3577.57
Italy 4166878.96 1228.04 2893.19
Mali 3446490.43 1076.53 2569.53
Cote d'Ivory 2921362.89 762.44 1742.33
Madagascar 2872512.67 1143.79 2857.36
Iran 2609328.87 697.26 1603.44
Guinea 2386557.87 907.66 2250.22
Cameroon 2343408.28 780.19 1887.10
Sierra Leone 2036319.53 656.00 1576.07
Senegal 1751423.53 511.31 1201.98

22. Potential Estimated Losses
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TOTAL Studied
Countries
Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$
No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
195.22 113797 36681.9
Few Countries
Ranked
Losses in Million Ha
Losses in Million
US$
No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
South Africa 22318579.74 3153.29 5001313.44
Sudan 19837639.34 1795.65 3050895.59
Ethiopia 19174720.34 2457.87 3948947.89
Botswana 16889275.68 1773.38 2936139.99
Somalia 12605124.55 1951.65 3061040.64
Niger 12106218.71 1276.87 2112533.50
Namibia 10253835.66 1580.14 2479730.92
Kenya 9015467.87 1229.61 1959126.59
Spain 7819584.04 906.08 1477125.75
Mali 7414864.38 727.80 1218764.89
Nigeria 7249065.45 644.53 1098745.83
Chad 6572948.15 554.25 954499.77
Iran 6041217.29 424.37 759525.75
Iraq 4209875.92 504.62 818522.40
France 2710727.47 416.02 653176.64
Portugal 2608605.54 255.38 427842.30
Eritrea 2571093.61 231.92 394297.37
Syria 2042301.66 229.82 376332.50
Mauritania 1831670.96 204.31 335023.86
Angola 1808280.97 204.95 335245.10
Zimbabwe 1454235.96 180.04 290675.60
Congo 1410963.20 149.82 247600.58
Turkey 1374726.93 170.90 275758.87
Italy 1350422.29 185.24 294920.51
Burkina Faso 1300985.55 174.35 278436.06
Ghana 1074881.73 76.36 136322.86

23. Potential Estimated Losses
TOTAL Studied
Countries
Losses in Million Ha
Losses in Million
US$
62.53 28639 18361.9
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No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
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Few Countries
Ranked
Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$
No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
Spain 9957652 5802.98 3854354
Gabon 5800186 2666.96 1710209
France 5611925 4479.10 3078726
Cameroon 5116982 1270.45 696985.8
Italy 4429314 3185.01 2167294
Nigeria 4312830 1481.81 895712.4
Portugal 3758955 2094.88 1383209
Congo 2500443 1179.78 759815.9
Cote d'Ivory 2413521 501.19 255214.9
Liberia 1817647 370.10 186690.6
Ghana 1783878 381.84 197184.9
Congo, DRC 1696863 478.93 274357.7
Benin 1219047 272.51 143433.9
Turkey 1095823 732.61 494665.5
Angola 1019811 278.33 157755.1
Guinea 896073.9 179.66 89943.88
Madagascar 825736.2 178.84 92840.58
Sierra Leone 793430.4 163.83 83200.47
Greece 725424.5 355.11 230059.2
Algeria 722952.3 146.34 73610.17
Croatia 684358.7 560.53 386180
Serbia 635307.7 527.30 363709.6
Equatorial Guinea 624223.2 173.06 98585.66
Sudan and South S 589337.2 160.04 90564.6
Mozambique 467505.9 101.95 53090.24

24. Potential Estimated Losses
TOTAL Studied
Countries
Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$
758.23 207682 8503.24
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No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
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Few Countries
Ranked
Losses in Million Ha
Losses in Million
US$
No. of Worker lost
Jobs in ‘000
South Africa 38668525.31 9224.27 5050116.24
Nigeria 33957727.75 8476.41 3022016.93
Congo DR 31163620.3 11801.54 549870.28
France 30882478.41 8800.62 7032101.29
Sudan 29233872.31 4262.53 3146737.01
Ethiopia 24650857.6 8692.67 436997.1
Spain 23095325.98 8130.85 5334749.78
Somalia 20857862.96 4638.91 3069606.915
Bulgaria 16895488.1 1775.82 2936933.15
Tanzania 13074065.43 4889.67 157304.47
Niger 11588957.01 1952.32 2480600.729
Zimbabwe 10578517.09 3631.08 307995.523
Gabon 9086158.15 3254.58 2363791.04
Kuwait 9016274.27 1229.7 1959126.71
Italy 8701500.01 4423.4 2187509.7
Kenya 8123291.79 2880.74 42702.42
Uganda 8089480.96 3221.33 15362.969
Mauritania 7618158.07 768.29 1218849.66
Turkey 7464119.82 2413.2 774001.94
Cameroon 7460864.08 2050.66 698909.99
Iraq 7452251.97 770.96 761187.164
Oman 7268759.25 650.55 1098760.13
Zambia 7092178.92 2656.09 78092.3
Botswana 7056271.75 2511.1 10816.343
Chad 6894349.42 2264.4 96605.64
Comoros 6572948.15 554.25 954499.77
Mozambique 5992105.8 2159.6 98106.48

25. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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CONCLUSIONS:
Farmers, poor people in
rural areas are moving to
cities creating pressure on
housing and Random
settlement areas. By the
year 2050 almost 70% of
population will be leaving
in cities many of them
without are jobless or
work in informal business
job .
Loosing land and
renewable water sources
means less food
production, degradation,
reduction in biodiversity,
instability, and increase
conflicts, displacement and
migration.
Agriculture needs investment as the share in GDP vary
In south Europe is 2.5%...In Arab countries 11%
In Africa around 35%
More INVESTMENT and ECONOMIC REFORM is REQUIRED
Land degradation is a measure threat to Agriculture and
when drought cycles increase in intensity, frequency and
duration under high variability the threat tern to Crises.
Prevention, Recovery and Building Resilience Require
using our resources better in Research, Education & Training,
Implementation & Practice and Policy.
Nature resources are only decreasing in draylands, and
shared water resources could become a real threat and
reason for conflicts……..
SHARING and MANAGING is the Key
“Drylands” which represent 41% of the globe and 2 billion people), they require better
attention,
“Oasis “ are under threat and severly affected by Nature Metrological Hazards.

26. Thank you
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wadiderian@gmail.com
wadiderian@yahoo.com