Danube floodrisk i

Experiences in the definition of guidelines for
Hazard Mapping in Trentino
Riccardo Rigon

Segantini - Mezzogiorno sulle Alpi

Danube FloodRisk Project,
Trento, October 4, 2011

Monday, October 1, 12

Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011

Outline

•What is a guide line ?
•Hazard and Risk
•Liquid and solid hazards
•Return period (is dead ?)
•Scale of analysis
•Processes
•Fit it in three colors
•Models (the experience of USDA)
•Interaction and participation
•Who does it ?
2

Riccardo Rigon


guideline |ˈgīdˌlīn|
noun
a general rule, principle, or piece of
advice.

... for solving a problem

In this case the problem is to prevent natural hazards, and, a a consequence,

something that is crucial to prioritizing what to do where in river
catchments

what is related to civil protection issuing alarms to population, urban and
regional planning, plan and design defense work, allocate public resources, and
producing sensible laws and regulations

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Riccardo Rigon


EU projects

Are full of guidelines that nobody really read, except, maybe those
who prepared them.

Why ?

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One problem is that the where is also important. Once you have design the
method, you realize that using it requires itself resources.

Therefore someone has to say where to apply the
method in the region first

Prioritizing and financial investment is needed also for the
studies, and not only for the final outcomes

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Riccardo Rigon


While it is proven

that each euro invested in these studies is worthwhile. This become evident
usually after a disaster has occurred, and if the disaster is avoided is usually
not evident to many.

This is paradoxical and causes an endemic
low financial support to this kind of
initiatives and studies, especially at the very
local scale where the danger is usually not
particularly felt.

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Riccardo Rigon


Lesson learned

Guidelines remains unread because there is not the correct information and
perception of what natural hazards can do in a given place. And because to apply
them require resources.

Guidelines need to become part of a participative
process of learning about the environment which
involve institutions and people

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Riccardo Rigon


Prioritizing

the studies require to cope with the perception of risk, beside hazard, even if
risk depends directly on hazards.

Guidelines for hazard prevention

require a criterion for getting a first guess of hazard and risk

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Riccardo Rigon


This is why we gave to the province of Trento guidelines for hazard mapping
“a scalar structure”, and different level of analysis.

First,

large scale, coarse grained, rules are used to choose
where to study

and hazards are mapped in large, law resolution maps, using qualitative,
historic, and soft information

Land use is crossed with these maps for a first guess of the risk, and
hazards studies are made on these zone.

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Riccardo Rigon


Nothing excludes that other methods

for making this choice should be applicable

For instance:

• urban expansion plans should include hazard assessment

• citizens and/or association could request the studies

•norms and laws could require it in certain conditions

• legal conflicts

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Riccardo Rigon


But we must be very realistic

As a few convener told

No money, no party: there is, in this economic recession phase a great need to
fully justify any single euro used in this field.

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Riccardo Rigon


Back to the Physics

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Riccardo Rigon

Prologo

Flood in plans
The River Berounka, Czech Republic, 2002
Da Wikipedia

Water (with mud) 13

Riccardo Rigon


Flood in mountain
Torrente Chieppena, Villa, 4 November1966

Cortesia, Prof. A. Armanini

Water, sediments, and debris 14

Riccardo Rigon


Flood in mountain

Cortesia, Prof. A. Armanini

Water and (a lot of) mud 15

Riccardo Rigon


The physics

Precipitations Triggering Hydraulics
Type of
Quantity of Runoff production Propagation
Sequence of Sediment delivery Inundation
Statistics of

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Riccardo Rigon


Triggering

Geology

1 1

1

Hydrology Geomechanics
stresses in terrain
rainfall statistics resistence in terrain
runoff 1 1
subsurface ﬂows

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Riccardo Rigon


The medium
Geology soilCover&Use
Geophysics
type of cover
Soil depth type of use
Water content weight of cover

How much soil/debris ?

01

terrainAnalysis
Earth Observation elevation photo interpretation
slope
curvature exposed rock
statigraphy drainage vegetation
quaternary contributing areas human settlements
Analizza i rapporti metrici
Shape recognition What is upon the terrain ?
Is there soil
01 1

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Riccardo Rigon


The outcome

Hydraulics

Propagation (liquid and solid)
Inundation (liquid and solid)

How much - Where -with which velocity

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Riccardo Rigon


The outcome

Hydraulics

Propagation (liquid and solid)
Inundation (liquid and solid)

How much - Where -with which velocity

With which uncertainty
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Riccardo Rigon


Low

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Riccardo Rigon


Preliminary Analisys

Low

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High Low
Potential Risk

In the average

Low

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Riccardo Rigon



High Low
Potential Risk

In the average

Further Assessment
considering uncertainties
High

Low

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Riccardo Rigon


Low

Indicative analysis

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Riccardo Rigon


High Medium-Low Low

Detailed analysis Simplified analysis

Geological Analysis Geological Analysis

Hydrological analysis Hydrological analysis Indicative analysis

Simplified Hydraulic
Hydraulic analysis analysis

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Riccardo Rigon


High Medium-Low Low

Detailed analysis Simplified analysis

Geological Analysis Geological Analysis

Hydrological analysis Hydrological analysis Indicative analysis

Simplified Hydraulic
Hydraulic analysis analysis

Comparison with other hazard maps

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Riccardo Rigon


The lesson we learnt

•Even from the technical point of view there is the
necessity of many interacting competences

•Assumed that the choice of the right models has
been done (which is not easy), there is a data
requirement to be fulfilled, even for a minimal
result

•Data when NOT available need to be produced.
Institutions need standards (to which you can give a
price) procedures to get them

•Data when available are usually in strange formats.
Nobody knows what INSPIRE is.

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Riccardo Rigon


Drawingdelthe map
Si riporta come esempio in Figura 8.3 una carta pericolo totale.

Figura 8.3 – Esempio di Carta della Pericolosità ottenibile utilizzando la metodologia spiegata nelle Linee Guida.
23
8.1.5 Valutazioni finali
Riccardo Rigon carta della pericolosità, prodotta sulla base delle intensità e delle probabilità di accadimento,
La
deve essere sottoposta ad alcune considerazioni e valutazioni prima della realizzazione della mappa


The risk map

•Required the definition of degree of hazard which is, somewhat
arbitrary

Intensity

High

Medium

Low

High Medium Low Probability
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Riccardo Rigon


The risk map

arbitrary

Intensity

High
These levels
depend
on Medium
the phenomena
but threshold
are given
by law Low

High Medium Low Probability
25

Riccardo Rigon


The risk map

arbitrary

Intensity

High

Medium

Low

These depends Probability
on laws High Medium Low
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Riccardo Rigon


For instance

1.0
Tr = 10 anni

0.8
0.6

1h
3h
P[h]

6h
12h
0.4

24h
0.2

h1 h3 h6 h12 h24
0.0

0 50 100 150

Precipitazione [mm]

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Riccardo Rigon


For instance

Tr = 100 anni

1.0
Tr = 10 anni

0.8
0.6

1h
3h
P[h]

6h
12h
0.4

24h
0.2

h1 h3 h6 h12 h24
0.0

0 50 100 150

Precipitazione [mm]

28

Riccardo Rigon


Where do 500 years of return period is ?

•How much reliable is it ?
•How much is the uncertainty produced in
models ?

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Riccardo Rigon


Where do 500 years of return period is ?

•How much reliable is it ?
•How much is the uncertainty produced in
models ?

BTW

•Usually people do not understand the concept of return period,
which is interpreted literally, and not statistically, over a certain area of
interest

•Some colleague declared that return period is dead

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Riccardo Rigon


Going back to models

•There should be freedom to use the best models.
•But there is the need to have standards
•And beyond standards, the need to rely on some
concept of responsibility for who makes the maps

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Riccardo Rigon


Going back to models

•Standard model should be available for free, as a
concept of democracy, and control. While usually
many services rely on proprietary software, whose
scientific basis cannot be verified by inspection of
the code.

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Riccardo Rigon


Therefore

•We proposed, at least for the hydrological part of the guidelines, free
software to support independent investigations of the problems.

Knowing that
•Many technical issues are actually under scrutiny by the scientific
community, and should not given for granted.

32

Riccardo Rigon


There are many experiences

in this3direction in the next future Possibly the most ramarkable is the Object
JGrass - GEOFRAME in
the World.
Modeling System v3 pursued by the US Department of Agriculture.

JGrass 3/ OMS 3

After David et al., 2009 33

Riccardo Rigon


OMS v3
The Object Modeling System OMS is a modular modeling framework that uses
an open source software approach to enable all members of the scientific
community to address collaboratively the many complex issues associated with
the design, development, and application of distributed hydrological and
environmental models.

OMS

OMS3 can be found at: http://www.javaforge.com/project/omslib 34

Riccardo Rigon


Conclusion

Even if the process of hazard mapping is very technical, its acceptance to the
community must be the consequence of an integrated process of discussion
and acceptance.

Otherwise, the technical results either are not understood (i.e. technologists
must explain what they did e why), or simply considered in an alternative among
others, and not applied.

In turn, the identification of an hazard, does not automatically individuate the
solution but usually, a set of solutions, which, again require discussion and
acceptance to be transformed in policies.

Not the same solution is valid everywhere.

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Riccardo Rigon


Hazard information, Protection, Warning

Sense of danger: As Vladimiro Dorigo wrote, (Una Laguna
di chiacchere, 1972), the idea of how Nature is strong must
be recovered, and we need to be respectful of it.

Sense of change: climate is changing, and what is assessed
for now could not be for the future.

Sense of vulnerability: what was acceptable times ago in
term of risk is not anymore acceptable.

36

Riccardo Rigon

Grazie per l’attenzione !

25-28 0ttobre 2011
L’analisi idrologica per la
redazione di carte del pericolo
derivante dal franamento e
dalle piene con JGrass
(CUDAM e HYDROLOGIS)

7-10 febbraio 2012
Progettazione e gestione delle
reti idrauliche
(CUDAM, HYDROLOGIS e
HYDROMATES)

http://events.unitn.it/migg2011-2012



The Vigata Case
It begins with a storm …They were rolls, waves that
finished in a puff: known noises, village things.
(L. Meneghello, Libera nos a Malo)
50
40
Precipitazione [mm]

30
20
10
0

01/10:16 01/10:17 01/10:18 01/10:19 01/10:20 01/10:21 01/10:22 01/10:23 02/10:00 02/10:01 02/10:02 02/10:03 02/10:04

tempo [giorno/ora]

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Riccardo Rigon


The Vigata Case
The downpours were onto the courtyards here around, the thunder up
here above the roofs; I could recognize by ear, a little further up, the
place of the usual God that made storms when we were children, He too a
village character.
(L. Meneghello, Libera nos a Malo)

50
8

idrogramma da evento reale
precipitazione misurata Montelusa

40
6

Pioggia [mm/h]
Portata [mc/s]

30
4

20
2

10
0

0
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08

tempo [giorno/ora]

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Riccardo Rigon


The Vigata Case
1000

TR 300 anni h=88.386 x d^0.1822

TR 200 anni h=84.039 x d^0.1830
TR 100 anni h=76.596 x d^0.1843
500

TR 50 anni h=69.125 x d^0.1860

TR 30 anni h=63.585 x d^0.1875

TR 20 anni h=59.152 x d^0.1889

TR 10 anni h=51.443 x d^0.1919
9h
200

evento: cumulata 9H
●
evento: cumulate 3H ●
● ●
●
evento: cumulate 1H ● ●
●
h [mm]

● ● ●
● ●
100

● ●
● ●
● ● ● ●
● ● ●
● ● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
50

●

3h
20

1h
10

0.1 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 50.0 100.0

durate [ore] 40

Riccardo Rigon


The Vigata Case

50
8

evento reale
evento intensità cost d=9H

40
da LSPP, TR=300, d=9H
6

Pioggia [mm/h]
Portata [mc/s]


30
4

20
2

10
0

0
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08

tempo [giorno/ora]

41

Riccardo Rigon


The Vigata Case

50
8

evento reale

40
6

Pioggia [mm/h]
Portata [mc/s]


30
4

20
2

10
0

0
01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08

tempo [giorno/ora]

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Riccardo Rigon


The Vigata Case
In this basin, the maxima discharge are those which have short duration.
10 12 14
Portata [mc/s]

evento simulato da ietogramma
8

LSPP, TR=300
LSPP, TR=100
6

LSPP, TR=50
4
2
0

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06

tempo [giorno/ora]

43

Riccardo Rigon


Oihbo’
Rainfall data are at hourly time step. We need sub-hourly

Rainfall has actually been measure elsewhere, at Montelusa
a few chilometers from Vigata.

44

Riccardo Rigon


Oihbo’


Moral
These data could not be appropriate to do any diagnostic

44

Riccardo Rigon


Oihbo’


Moral
These data could not be appropriate to do any diagnostic

In future
Maybe having data from high resolution meteorological models -less that
1 km2

44

Riccardo Rigon


The Vigata Case

BTW if the hydrologists have used the usual practice. Would have they
contained the flood ?

Yes, they would
10 12 14
Portata [mc/s]

8

LSPP, TR=300
LSPP, TR=100
6

LSPP, TR=50
4
2
0

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06

tempo [giorno/ora]
45

Riccardo Rigon


Il caso di Vigata

BTW if the hydraulic work have been made following the usual practice.
Would have they contained the flood ?

90-100 mc/s No, if they would not have accounted
for the debris
10 12 14
Portata [mc/s]

8

LSPP, TR=300
LSPP, TR=100
6

LSPP, TR=50
4
2
0

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06

tempo [giorno/ora]
46

Riccardo Rigon


... you know what
I'm craving? A
little perspective.
That's it. ...
Anton Egò

Investing resources

to save

resources

47

Riccardo Rigon


In this case
Control from satellites

Meteorological model at high resolution (radar, ground networks,

Ground measure and experiments
satellites)

Rainfall-Runoff-
Propagation Models

Fully distributed hydrological models
48

Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting
courtesy CISMA (www.cisma.bz.it)

49

Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting
courtesy CISMA (www.cisma.bz.it)

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Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting
300
12
courtesy Mountain-eering (www.mountain-eering.com)

820010
SWglob
Iprec

0 0 2 50 4 100 6

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
time (day/month)
time (day/month)
10
850
0
840
AirT
AirP
−10
830
−20
820

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04
time (day/month)
time (day/month)
51
350
100

Riccardo Rigon
50



Forecasting

52

Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting
courtesy Prof. E. Farabegoli, Univ. Bologna

53

Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting

54

Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting

55

Riccardo Rigon


Forecasting

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Riccardo Rigon


What you cannot forecast, you can prevent

Courtesy del Prof. Aronne Armanini- Check dam withDebris Flow Breaker
57

Riccardo Rigon


Thank you for your attention

G.Ulrici - 2000 ?

58

Riccardo Rigon

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