O slideshow foi denunciado.
Utilizamos seu perfil e dados de atividades no LinkedIn para personalizar e exibir anúncios mais relevantes. Altere suas preferências de anúncios quando desejar.

WAPOR - Polling problems and solutions

400 visualizações

Publicada em

GAD3 ha presentado en Marrakech un análisis de los “problemas actuales con las encuestas electorales y cómo resolverlos” en el 71 Congreso de la Asociación Mundial de Opinión Pública (WAPOR).

Publicada em: Dados e análise
  • Seja o primeiro a comentar

  • Seja a primeira pessoa a gostar disto

WAPOR - Polling problems and solutions

  1. 1. Current problems with electoral polls and how to solve them WAPOR 72th Annual Conference Marrakesh, 30th Jun 2018 Narciso Michavila @nmichavila Sara Morais @smoraisv
  2. 2. Main problems Social context • Volatility • Last minute decisions • Difficulty to reach the youths Political context • New parties • Fragmentation • The paradox of the legislator 2.0 Media context • Increasing pressure to anticipate results • Confronted vision of journalists and social researches • New actors Economic limitations
  3. 3. Social context: which method? Source: own analysis of Nate Silver’s electoral polls database. Missed out of MOE: only 14% of the 1.442 polls published since 2.000 in the three last week s before the elections, if they were done with human interviewers and belonged to an association (AAAPOR, NCPP, Roper)
  4. 4. Political context: how control bias? Due to the fragmentation, volatility, indecision, increased of strategic vote… we cannot use the past vote to correct de bias anymore. Elections for the Catalan Parliament
  5. 5. The importance of sample stratification The use of the social and electoral data of every ZIP code is vital to be sure that the sample is unbiased. In the case of Spain we use 40 homogenous zones and check the 8.000 + ZIP codes. The use of Tableu for the analysis is basic.
  6. 6. The importance of sample stratification In the case of Colombia we use the 30+ regional zones (departament).
  7. 7. Political context: how control bias?
  8. 8. Political context: new parties Catalans Elections 2017
  9. 9. Political context
  10. 10. Political context Fragmentation is related to last minute decision: Around 30% of the electorate make their voting decision during the electoral campaign, this is two weeks before the elections. Around 10% the same day of the election. Methodological solution: do not stop interviewing until the previous 2 days.
  11. 11. Political context Fragmentation is related to last minute decision: Around 30% of the electorate make their voting decision during the electoral campaign, this is two weeks before the elections. Around 10% the same day of the election. Methodological solution: do not stop interviewing until the previous 2 days.
  12. 12. Methodological solutions 1. Sample stratification with big data 2. Use proportional sampling 3. CATI methodology is preferable to online 4. Mix landline and mobile phones (50% aprox.) 5. Voice IP 6. All polls are made internally 7. Questionnaire length: the shorter the better 8. Train the interviewers 9. Fieldwork: The latter the better 10. Do not weight by past vote 11. Use the technology before the fieldwork not later 12. Every elections has its own method 13. Be flexible with the methodology 14. Work to publish
  13. 13. ¡Gracias!

×