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Autonomous vehicles: becoming economically feasible through improvements in lasers, MEMs, and ICs

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These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how autonomous vehicles are becoming economically feasible throug through improvements in lasers, microelectronic mechanical systems (MEMS), integrated circuits (ICs), and other components. Although the cost of the Google Car is currently about 150,000 USD, 30% annual improvements in lasers, MEMS, and ICs will make these economically feasible for a broad number of users in the next ten years. A key issue is when certain lanes, roads or even entire highway systems are restricted to automated vehicles. This would enable collision avoidance to rely more on between-vehicle communications. This would further reduce the cost of automated vehicles, stimulate diffusion, and also reduce transportation time and increase fuel efficiency.

Publicada em: Negócios, Tecnologia
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Autonomous vehicles: becoming economically feasible through improvements in lasers, MEMs, and ICs

  1. 1. MT5009 Hi-Tech Opportunities Autonomous Vehicles Tay Hong Chuan Liang Hong Yao Lin Lin Ho Kum Wah Huub van Esbroeck
  2. 2. Contents 1. Introduction to Autonomous Vehicles 2. Essential Technologies 1. GPS 2. Lidar 3. Radar 4. Video 5. Ultrasound 3. The Future: Driverless Fleets Vehicle-to-vehicle interaction 4. System Integration CPU and Broadband Requirements 5. Entrepreneurial Opportunities evaluation of cost and performance parameters
  3. 3. Introduction What are Autonomous Vehicles? Self-driving cars with sensors able to observe and understand surroundings Google driveless car estimated cost USD$150,000 (Year 2012)
  4. 4. Introduction Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/
  5. 5. Benefits of Autonomous Car Google’s Aspiration Potential Annual Benefits (US only) 4.95 million fewer accidents 90% reduction 30,000 fewer deaths in ACCIDENTS 2 million fewer injuries $400 billion saving in cost 90% reduction WASTED COMMUTING 4.8 billion fewer commuting hours 1.9 billion gallons in fuel savings $101 billion saved in lost productivity and fuel cost 90% reduction Reduce cost per trip-mile by 80%+ Car utilization from 5-10% to 75%+ in CARS Better land use. Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/ Google, US NHTSA, AAA, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Columbia University Earth Institute and Devil’s Advocate Group’s analysis
  6. 6. Autonomous Systems Comparison Google Car Oxford Robot Car Ionut Budisteanu Mobil Eye C2-270 MuCAR-3 Drive-assist system cost USD 130,000 USD 7,500 USD 4,000 USD 749 N.A. Level of Autonomy High Medium Medium Low High Key Components GPS, 3D Lidar Computation software 2D Lidar, Prior knowledge Low-end 3D Lidar, Webcam supervisor program Mono camera, System-onchip Multifocal camera, 360º Lidar Ref: http://www.driverless-future.com/?p=400 Ref: http://www.mobileye.com/blog/press-room/products-press-room/mobileye-announces-new-c2-series-solution-and-previewsnew-technologies/
  7. 7. Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Space segment composed of GPS satellites that transmit time & position in the form of radio signals to the user How GPS Works Control segment composed of all the ground-based facilities that are used to monitor and control the satellites User segment - consists of the users & GPS receivers
  8. 8. Technology: GPS Accuracy GPS Ref: http://www.gps.gov Lidar Radar Video Accuracy Ultrasound
  9. 9. Technology: GPS Reference: GPS in Aerospace GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound FAA data collected in early 2011 shows that the horizontal accuracy of GPS SPS is often within ~ 1 meter Reference: GPS in Aerospace By hypothesis, the car accuracy in 2020 may be within < 50cm  Using Nationalwide Differential GPS System ~ 10 to 15cm Ref: Federal Aviation Administration
  10. 10. Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Conditions Maintain same fuel price General road conditions Factors GPS Cost Benefits Ultrasound GPS Accuracy Cost GPS Cost Benefits Fuel Accident consumption rate Insurance premium Time Enable potential cost saving over time
  11. 11. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound • Non-contact technology – Sense the physical appearance, speed and distance of objects through laser. – Software transforms the data into 3D representation of objects in real time • Mobile Mapping System – GPS: geo-referencing, motion sensor optional – Laser: range finding, property evaluation – Software: post-processing, map construction. Lidar is uniquely suited to , surveys • 1-1000m distance • Mm to cm accuracy Ref: Audi's sensors include radar, lidar, camera, and adaptive cruise-control (source: Audi)
  12. 12. Technology: Lidar Lidar Radar Video Accuracy GPS Ref: Stanford’s car – Junior. http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=44539 Ultrasound
  13. 13. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Component Cost: Laser Ref: http://www.industrial-lasers.com/articles/print/volume-27/issue-1/features/2011-annual-economic-review-and-forecast.html Ref: Global Markets for Laser Systems, Components & Materials -- Focus on the Americas published by BCC Research on January 1, 2012 Ref: http://www.toptica.com/products/ultrafast_fiber_lasers/technology.html
  14. 14. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Component Cost: Inertial Sensor Ref: Technology Trends for Inertial MEMS, market & technology report – Jan 2012 Ref: IC Insights - “Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes”, May 2013
  15. 15. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Ref: CURRENT AND FUTURE HIGH VOLUME "KILLER" AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS OF MICROSYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY (MST) By Roger H. Grace, President, Roger Grace Associates
  16. 16. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Basis Software Surphaser FARO Photon DI3D/DI4D Kreon Zephyr Mantis Vision’s F5 90k-150k 90k-120k 20k-140k 60k-75k 45k-60k 0.02mm 0.5mm/0-1m Digitizer; Highprecision Handheld; high res.; Motionsensitive. Image Price Range ($) Accuracy/ 0.2mm/adjust 6.35mm/Long 0.5mm Range able Key Features 360x270; 800k pt/sec; Ideal for large objects; Large-vol scan; 3mm error @10m Ref: http://www.dirdim.com/prod_laserscanners.htm Camera; Full-color; 21 Mega pixel/imag
  17. 17. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound FARO Focus 3D Laser Scanner PrimeSense 3D Sensor • Cost: $30,000 to $40,000 • 976,000 pt/sec • Range: 0.6 -330m • Accuracy ± 2mm • Height sensor, Compass, dual axis compensator • GPS synchronization • Cost: $200 • World’s Smallest 3D sensor • Range: 0.35 – 3.5 m • Accuracy: a few centimeters • Color, audio, USB support • Employed by Kinect for gaming, by MIT for robot. Ref: http://www.lidarnews.com/content/view/8877/206/ Ref: http://www.faro.com/products/3d-surveying/laser-scanner-faro-focus-3d/features#main Ref: http://www.primesense.com/developers/get-your-sensor/ Ref: http://mashable.com/2013/01/03/worlds-smallest-3d-motion-sensor/
  18. 18. Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Velodyne Lidar: HDL-32E • • • • • • • Cost: $29,900 (half of HDL-64E) 32 laser – scanner pairs; 7000 pt/sec Compact size – more applications Range: 1-100m; accuracy < 2cm Distance – Reflectivity – Angle Internal MEMS – Motion sensing GPS synchronization Ibeo – Valeo Joint Project • Lidar Cost: $250, by 2014 • Accuracy < 1.5”, at 200 yd • In any weather Ultrasound
  19. 19. Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Technology Improvements opening angle Radar Sensor Weight (grams) Radar Sensor Opening Angle (degrees) 160 600 140 500 Angle (degrees) weight (grams) 700 400 300 200 100 80 60 40 100 0 1998 120 20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Ref: Bosch Press Release: http://www.bosch-presse.de/presseforum/details.htm?txtID=6242&locale=en 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
  20. 20. Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Larger Bandwidth Is required for better 1. Range accuracy 2. Contour determination “79GHz Project” to allocate a broad band for automotive Short Range Radar applications Ref: Bandwidth Requirements for Future Safety and Comfort Applications, Markus Andres, Universität Ulm Video Ultrasound
  21. 21. Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound 60% Ref: European Commission D16.1 – Report on interference density increase by market penetration forecast
  22. 22. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound Humans need two eyes to see the world in binocular vision, which enables us to calculate the object sizes, distances and perceive longitudinal motion. In recent years (2011 to 2013), stereo video camera system has been created and adopted by many leading car manufacturers, to give driver assistance systems the same capacity: a 3-dimentional view of the area in front of a vehicle Stereo Camera System
  23. 23. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound Mercedes-Benz S-Class Luxury Sedan – Launched in 2013 One of the most important development is the introduction on Stereo Camera Technology Highlights of the Stereo Camara in S-Class: - Price: $2,800 for option package of stereo cameras and radar; - Opening Angle: 45°; - 3D view of the road ahead: 50m; - Total Range: 500m; - Autonomous emergency braking with pedestrian detection: up to 72km/h; - Data usage: 300gb per Hour - Distance / Height measurement Accuracy: 3 millimeters within 15m
  24. 24. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound CMOS Image Sensor Market Demand
  25. 25. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound 1. Reduction in Scale - Camera Size & Pixel Size Lower Material Cost • Economic Feasibility & Performance Higher Resolution Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2011/11/st-published-its-tsv-camera-module.html Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2012/04/aptina-global-shutter-whitepaper.html
  26. 26. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound 2. Increase in Scale – CMOS Wafer Size • Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2011/11/st-published-its-tsv-camera-module.html Lower Cost in general
  27. 27. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound 3.Reduction in Price – Cost Per Mpixel Cost for Mpix drops at rate of ~ 25% annually • Ref: http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=4926
  28. 28. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound Back-illuminated CMOS image sensor, which significantly enhanced imaging characteristics: - twofold sensitivity - low noise. Improvement Next-generation back-illuminated CMOS image sensor – Stacked Structure - Compact Chip Size - Larger logic circuit scale: 500k gates to 2400k gates - Possible to optimize manufacturing process separately for pixel and circuit section Ref: http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/200806/08-069E/ Ref: http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/201201/12-009E/
  29. 29. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound There is a possibility of replacing short & Medium-range rader / laser sensors with stereo / mono camera system. Future Aspect Ref: http://eecatalog.com/fpga/2013/02/07/driver-assistance-systems-with-the-power-of-fpgas/ Ref: http://www.aptina.com/solutions/automotive.jsp
  30. 30. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound Driving becomes more difficult after sunset. Not only is visibility generally reduced, but an even more serious challenge on unlighted roads are the headlamps of approaching vehicles, which can dazzle a driver’s eyes. Currently, there are in general two designs for night vision system: Passive and Active Night Vision System
  31. 31. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound Currently, Night Vision Systems (NVS) are only found out in a handful luxury cars: e.g. Audi, BMW and Mercede Benz: Feature System Type Price for NVS Affected by Fog Audi A8L Thermal Image Sensor (Passive) Pedestrian Detection Mercedes Benz CL55o Illuminator + Image Sensor (Active) $2300 $2600 $3490 NO NO YES YES NO Only warm objects, people and animal All, including lane marks, road signs, reflective road markings, rocks, fallen trees, etc Daylight Visibility Objects can be viewed BMW 750i 500 ft 300 ft 300 ft Ref: http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/gadgets/automotive/in-dash-night-vision-system.htm Ref: http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=23154 Ref: http://www.onemotoring.com.sg/publish/content/onemotoring/en/motoring_buzz/motoring_accessories/bmw_night_vision.print.html
  32. 32. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound For the last 25 years, number of IR image sensor pixel has been increasing at an exponential rate, doubling every 19 months, which is in-line with Moore’s law growth path: Ref: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1350449510001040
  33. 33. Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound Price for uncooled thermal camera is expected to drop by as much as 60% in the next 5 year (2013 to 2018) Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2013/09/yole-reviews-uncooled-ir-imaging-market.html Ref: http://www.sensorsmag.com/sensors-mag/sharply-lower-costs-uncooled-ir-sensors-may-spur-growth-7260
  34. 34. Technology: Ultrasound GPS Lidar Ultrasonic sensors are used to assist the driver in autonomous vehicle. Radar Video Ultrasound Radar and ultrasonic sensor (Courtesy Analog Devices) Variable gain amplifier used in ultrasonic sensor (USD12 each) (Courtesy Analog Devices)
  35. 35. Technology: Ultrasound GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Cost Down: Advances in Integrated Circuit packaging potentially can drive down ultrasonics component prices. Embedded Ultrasonic sensors using “Chip in Polymer” technology Estimated to reduce cost by 30% (courtesy of Fraunhofer Institute IZM) Embedded ultrasonic sensors for Automotive.
  36. 36. Technology: Ultrasound GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound Parktronic option price on Mercedes E-class Assumptions: Possible cost down of 5%Possible cost down of 5% this year due to advances in circuitfrom 2015 packaging onwards due process improvements. 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Price 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Courtesy of Motortrend) 2017 2018 2019 2020
  37. 37. Driverless Fleets The Future: Vehicle-to-Vehicle/ Infrastructure Interactions Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) communication (Courtesy of autoevolution) Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) communication V2V and V2I-I2V Communications (Courtesy of Embedded System Technology) Communication protocol is based on IEEE 802.11p Ref: http://www.autoevolution.com/news/gm-begins-testing-of-vehicle-to-vehicle-communication-in-ann-arbor-48560.html Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11p Ref:http://www.uwicore.umh.es/files/paper/2012_international/uwicore_IEEE_Communications_802.11p%20vehicle%20to%20infras tructure%20communications%20in%20urban%20environments.pdf
  38. 38. Driverless Fleets The Future: Vehicle-to-Vehicle/ Infrastructure Interactions Data transmission improvement from Year 1999 to Year 2012 (802.11 Network standard) Logarithmic increase in data transmission speed. 10000 per data stream (Mbit/s) Mbit/s (log scale) 1000 100 10 1 802.11a (Yr1999) 802.11b(Yr1999) 802.11g(Yr2003) 802.11n(Yr2009) 802.11ac(Yr2012) (Courtesy of wiki/IEEE_802.11) Ref: http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/emuco/files/hipeac_trends_future.pdf 802.11ad(Yr2014)
  39. 39. Systems Integration (II) Future Substitution / Elimination of Technologies
  40. 40. Systems Integration (III) Sensor data --- Central Processing Unit What autonomous car see making a left turn (Courtesy of Robotics Business Review) Google car monitoring traffic (Courtesy of CNN) 750MB of sensor data is collected per second (Courtesy of Robotics Business Review) CPU in Google Driverless car (Courtesy of Robotics Business Review) Ref: http://www.roboticsbusinessreview.com/article/google_car_data_hog_at_speeds_topping_2700gb_per_hour
  41. 41. Systems Integration (IV) Improvements microprocessor speed with time Improvement made in 1. Transistor count 2. Clock speed (MHz) 3. Power consumption 4. Perf/Clock (ILP) (Instruction-level parallelism) Our estimate for the number of microprocessor used in Google Car is at least three 2 GHz processor in parallel to handle the 750 MB of sensor data per second. Ref: http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm Ref: http://www.extremetech.com/computing/116561-the-death-of-cpu-scaling-from-one-core-to-many-and-why-were-still-stuck
  42. 42. Cost Down Estimates Gasoline car USD $20,000 Google car USD $150,000 - USD $20,000 = USD $130,000 $140,000 Component Cost Down ~ 30% Annually $120,000 $100,000 Year 2020 USD $80,000 USD $10,706 + 20,000 = USD $30,706 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Cost 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $130,000 $91,000 $63,700 $44,590 $31,213 $21,849 $15,294 $10,706
  43. 43. Ongoing Projects / Models Entrepreneurial Opportunities Group/Player Autonomous vehicle/system/project Stanford & Udacity, United States Google Driverless Car GM-Carnegie Mellon Autonomous Driving Collaborative Research Lab Boss car University of Berlin, Germany Madein Germany vehicle Technical University of Braunschweig, Germany Stadpilot Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany MuCAR-3 VisLab, University of Parma, Italy BRAiVE prototype Oxford Mobile Robotics Group, UK Wildcat INRIA IMARA, Paris, France Cybercar, cybercars2, LaRA project Induct Mobility Solutions, France Navia shuttle, CityMobil2 project Griffth University, Intelligent Control Systems Lab, Australia Cooperative driverless vehicles Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI), Korea ETRI Smart Transport RObot Autonomous Solutions, Inc (ASI), USA Vehicle Automation Kit Singapore-MIT-Alliance for Research and Technology, Singapore Future Urban Mobility
  44. 44. Entrepreneurial Opportunities Autonomous Vehicle Manufacturers Increased demand for AV: • Size, shape, function customizable • Open to all users: e.g. the blind, the handicapped, elderly, children • AV servicing industry. Ref: KPMG Components Manufacturers Increased demand for components: • GPS, Radar, Camera, Lidar, ultrasonic sensor etc. • Computer hardware: e.g. high performance ICs, storage, LCD, wireless comm, Audio etc.
  45. 45. Entrepreneurial Opportunities Software Developers Info-Management Companies • Artificial Intelligence model and software act as brain of AV • “Big Data” generated in V2V, V2I has enormous analysis values • Real time traffic monitoring data can be sold to AV comm-network. Ref: KPMG Government Social Services • AV can be used in Car Rental, Car Sharing, Auto-Taxi schemes.  Reduce operation cost and ownership cost by 80% • New insurance packages for AV. • Free up lands for various purposes
  46. 46. Entrepreneurial Opportunies Autononmous Car – Interior Design Companies Change TVRest andOpening Concept of Doors Relax Reverse Entertainment Surfing Windows SeatingtheEnabled Workingwith Internet Voice ControlSpace on Move PSP Entertainment Spacious Arrangement
  47. 47. Incentatives for Autonomous Car Initial phase Dedicated lanes for Autonomous cars Tax break for autonomous car buyers City state like Singapore implement all autonomous cars only. (Productivity gain and no more traffic jam)
  48. 48. Road Map for Autonomous Car 2012 • Google Driverless car project tests a fleet of self-driving vehicles, including six Toyota Priuses, an Auti TT, and three Lexus RX450h’s • Mercedes, Cardillac, BMW, Auti, and Nissan models include autonomous steering, braking, acceleration, parking, lane guidance, accident avoidance and driver fatigue detection 2014 - 2015 • Google’s fleet of fully autonomous Toyota Prius hybrids will be released 2018 2020 2020 onwards • Volvo, GM, Audi, Nissan and BMW have fully autonomous cars • Disrupt the conventional car industry!!! Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/