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Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric Heavy Duty Transit Bus Market

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Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric Heavy Duty Transit Bus Market

  1. 1. Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market China to Account for Nearly Half the Global Hybrid/Electric Bus Sales by 2020 NC7C-18 September 2013
  2. 2. 2NC7C-18 Research Team Jason Huang Consultant, Automotive & Transportation 86.21.5407.5780 Jason.huangl@frost.com Chandramowli K Senior Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation 91.44.6681.4018 chandramowlik@frost.com Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst Research Director Sandeep Kar Research Director, Commercial Vehicles Automotive & Transportation 1.416.490.7796 Sandeep.kar@frost.com Strategic Review Committee Leader Franck Leveque Vice President, Automotive & Transportation 49.(0)69.770.3321 Franck.leveque@frost.com
  3. 3. 3NC7C-18 Contents Section Slide Numbers Executive Summary 5 Research Objective, Methodology, Background, and Scope 23 Definitions and Segmentation 29 Transit Bus System in Passenger Mobility 34 Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 46 Drivers and Restraints – H&E HD Transit Bus Market 52 Market Forecast—H&E HD Transit Bus Market 58 Global HD Transit Bus Market—Sales Forecasts 56 Top Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus – Key OEM Forecasts 58 Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market in 2020 – Hybrid and Electric 61 Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market – Market Share Analysis (2012 and 2020) 62 Profiles of Key Market Participants 69 Top Hybrid and Electric Transit Bus OEM Profiling 77 Top Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping 86
  4. 4. 4NC7C-18 Contents (continued) Section Slide Numbers Region Wise H&E HD Transit Bus Market 93 Chinese Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 94 European Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 104 North American Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 112 Indian Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 119 Latin American Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 125 Russian Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 131 Rest of World Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market 137 Technology Trends and Analysis 146 Lithium Ion Battery 154 Li-Ion Battery Cost Breakdown 157 Ultracapacitors (UCs) in Buses 161 Transit Buses: Cost Comparison Between UC Vs Diesel Bus 166 Fuel Cell Range Extenders 170 Fuel Cell System — Cost Split Analysis 173 Conclusions and Future Outlook 174 Appendix 179
  5. 5. 5NC7C-18 Executive Summary
  6. 6. 6NC7C-18 0 20 40 60 Russia Latin America North America India Europe China Units (000s) 2012 2011 6.7% (8.8%) 3.5% 2.7% (9.7%) 5.8% • Robust demand from Tier II cities and new BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) services have helped sustain market growth in China. • Sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures across Europe weakened transit bus demand. However, subsidies were extended to green energy buses. • Despite slowdown in second half of the year, the Indian transit bus market experienced a marginal yoy growth. The slowdown is expected to continue through 2013. • North American bus industry showed recovery on the backing of replacement orders and federal push for green mobility. • Slowing Brazilian economy, coupled with Euro V introduction impacted transit bus sales. However, there was a recovery in the last quarter. • Russia’s urban passenger mobility space saw major push in wake of rising congestion and the modernization drive by fleets. Executive Summary—Top HD Transit Bus Market Performance The global market softened across the board in 2012, and North America and India showed moderate growth in transit bus sales while China and Russia experienced decent growth. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions Unit Shipment, Global, 2011 and 2012 Note: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above
  7. 7. 7NC7C-18 • Door-to-door integrated, multimobility a reality in future • Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first- and last-mile connectivity • Government to combine public transport with bike/two-wheeler/car-rental schemes • Market will see new participants in market termed as Mobility Integrators Source: Frost & Sullivan Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility The future of urban transportation is multimodal commuting, combining door-to-door solutions using dedicated mobility platforms. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Transit Solutions Comparative Analysis, Global, 2020 City Suburbs Intercity TravelDistance Travel Distance Destination Private Cars Shared Mobility Micro-mobility Intercity Bus Intercity Train Shared Mobility Transit Bus Cycle Urban Railway
  8. 8. 8NC7C-18 Urban Rail Car Sharing Bike Sharing Bicycle Walking Executive Summary—Integrated Mobility (continued) The HD transit buses and BRT provide a 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd capacity that can bridge the gap between high-capacity upstream urban rail systems and low-capacity downstream transportation options. • Subways and heavy urban rail systems are available in city centres in urban areas. • The operating capacities are 70,000 to 120,000 passenger per hour per direction (pphpd). • Car sharing, bike sharing and other non- motorized transportation options emerge critical in delivering the last-mile connectivity. • Conventional buses can handle capacities in the range of 3,000 to 5,000 pphpd. • BRT has an ideal capacity of 10,000 to 15,000 pphpd to bridge the gap. Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban Transportation Puzzle Transit Bus
  9. 9. 9NC7C-18 0 1 2 3 4 5 Passenger Information System [5], [4.5] Environmental Footprint [5], [4] Route Flexibility [1], [4.5] Efficiency [5], [4] Capital Expenditure [1], [4.5] Network (Distance) [2], [4] Flexible Frequency [4], [3] Journey experience [4.5], [4] Off Vehicle Fare Collection [4.5], [3.5] Urban Rail Transit Bus Ratings: [Urban Rail], [Transit Bus] Total Ratings: Urban Rail—32 Transit Bus—36 Executive Summary—Comparison of Transit Bus and Urban Railway Transit bus systems emerge as a sustainable solution for both developed and developing economies, with relatively lower capital expenditure and high route flexibility compared to railway system. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Transit Solutions Comparative Analysis, Global, 2012 0-Min 5-Max Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan
  10. 10. 10NC7C-18 Executive Summary—Transit Bus Market Key Influencing Trends The lowest pressure on existing energy infrastructure and lower emissions relative to CNG/LNG* buses will catalyze the relevance and prevalence of hybrid buses for urban mobility through the forecast period and after. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Influencing Trends, Global, 2012–2020 Source: ECLAC and Frost & Sullivan Regulatory Environment • Legislations mandating greener transport solutions • Subsidies for electric/hybrid/ alternate fuel vehicles • Strict fuel efficiency targets Energy Storage modules • Rapid technological advancements • Falling module prices • Increased production capacity Infrastructure development • Investment in charging infrastructure • Preference for BRT system • Off-board ticketing system Global Competition • Expansion into global markets to increase revenue • Develop innovative transit solutions to stay ahead of competition Energy Security • Reducing dependency on energy import • Adoption of renewable and alternate energy • Drive towards fuel efficient vehicles Urbanization and Congestion • Low emission zones • Low cost and quick mass transport • Connectivity between multiple points in city and suburbs *Compressed natural gas/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG)
  11. 11. 11NC7C-18 Executive Summary—2020 Snapshot of Global HD Transit Bus Market BRIC nations will lead growth, however, the ROW markets such as Africa and ASEAN are expected to gain significance as they migrate towards economical and flexible urban transportation solutions. Size of ball denotes the ‘HD Transit Bus’ market size by unit shipment in respective regions. ‘x’ Ranking of region as per market size ‘H&E Transit Bus’ China ~73,200 CAGR: 5.4% Global Share: 26.3%India CAGR: 6.5% Global Share: 14.7% ~40,700 Latin America CAGR: 6.3% Global Share: 20.9% ~58,100 Russia CAGR: 7.7% Global Share: 8.8% ~24,500 Europe CAGR: 3.9% Global Share: 5.3% ~14,800 North America CAGR: 4.2% Global Share: 2.4% ~6,700 RoW CAGR: 8.4% Global Share: 21.6% ~60,000 1 2 3 4 56 7 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Top Regions Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012-2020
  12. 12. 12NC7C-18 H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2012–2020 Executive Summary—Unit Shipment Forecast HD Transit Bus Market Global transit bus sales are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% on account of demand for green buses rising from government mandates and commitments; share of diesel powertrain to reduce to 74%. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 North America South America China India Russia Europe ROW Diesel and others CNG/LNG Hybrid & Electric 2012 2020 Regional Shares 2020 ~168 thousand ~278 thousand 37% 9% 28% 5% 6% 30% 8% 15% 6% 89% 33% 84% 58% 84% 85% 80% 52% 76% 72% Units HD: 8T and above (or) 10m and above Others: Bio-fuel, Gasoline, Ethanol, LPG 5% 13% 30% 7% 14% 11% 9% 18% 16% Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan 6.4% CAGR
  13. 13. 13NC7C-18 Executive Summary—Hybrid Transit Bus Penetration by Architecture Parallels will dominate the global hybrid powertrain market as tough economic situations will influence buying decisions towards low-cost solutions. Top hybrid module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Market Share by Hybrid Architecture, Global, 2012–2020 20202012 96 % 95 % 84 % 83 % ~26,900 ~7,700 2012 Units Series 11.6% Parallel 67.2% Series- Parallel 21.2% Series, 17.9% Parallel 56.4% Series- Parallel 25.7% 2020 Hybrid Architecture Penetration 16.9% CAGR Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan HD: 8T and above (or) 10m and above
  14. 14. 14NC7C-18 Region Conventional (Diesel) Hybrid Electric Latin America $200,000-$225,000 $280,000-$340,000 $410,000-$500,000 China $60,000-$90,000 $125,000–$200,000 $280,000–$350,000 India $75,000-$110,000 $175,000–$255,000 $325,000–$410,000 North America $350,000-$450,000 $500,000–$595,000 $625,000–$710,000 Europe $300,000-$410,000 $450,000–$540,000 $595,000–$680,000 Russia $130,000-$180,000 $245,000–$325,000 $400,000–$500,000 ROW $100,000-$350,000 $195,000–$500,000 $300,000–$700,000 Executive Summary—Region Wise Price Comparison for Transit Buses China will feature the most competitively priced hybrid/electric transit buses, and prices for both conventional and alternative powertrain-propelled transit buses were found highest in TRIAD (NA, Europe, Japan) markets. Source: Frost & Sullivan H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Price Scenario, Global, 2012 Major low-cost markets Major high-cost markets
  15. 15. 15NC7C-18 Executive Summary—Global Hybrid Module Supplier Product Mapping Participants to increasingly focus on parallel module with 3 major suppliers likely to introduce it by 2014. Chinese module integrators are poised to capture significant market volume, however restricted to China. Series Parallel Series- Parallel (Dual) Allison H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Hybrid Module Product Mapping, Global, 2012 BAE Eaton Siemens VosslahVoith H40EP / H50EP HybriDrive DIWAEaton Hybrid ELFA Vosslah Hybrid ZF EcoLife Parallel system is expected to hit the market by 2014. Siemens’ will look to establish its brand as complete hybrid system solution provider in addition to being major sub-system supplier. Partnerships with top Chinese bus OEMs have propelled Eaton to global leadership. Allison is expected to look at vertical integration of hybrid components to expand its presence and increase revenue. In addition to new bus systems, ZF offers option of retrofit in existing transit buses. HybridArchitecture Module Suppliers Source: Frost & Sullivan
  16. 16. 16NC7C-18 Module Supplier Bus OEMs—North America Bus OEMs—Europe Nova Bus NABI New- Flyer Gillig MAN Daimler Van Hool Solaris ADL Optare Wright Bus IVECO VDL Allison BAE Eaton Siemens Voith Vossloh ZF Executive Summary—Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs Volvo is the only major participant to have hybrid system developed in-house. Allison leads North American hybrid transit bus market as supplier shipping most hybrid powertrain systems. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, NA and Europe, 2012 Source: Frost & Sullivan
  17. 17. 17NC7C-18 Module Supplier Top Bus OEMs – China – India Yutong Wuzhoulong Foton Golden Dragon Kinglong Zhongtong TATA Allison BAE Eaton Fugong ZF Executive Summary—Matrix of Hybrid Module Suppliers and OEMs A lack of local hybrid expertise Has benefitted global suppliers. In the future, as global suppliers start local bases, China and India can become export hubs due to low raw material and manufacturing cost. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, Global, 2012 Source: Frost & Sullivan • In China, Siemens is represented as a sub-system supplier to many of the above module integrators. • India is a sizable market opportunity and is expected to be predominantly a parallel hybrid market. • Since the Indian hybrid bus market is expected to reach a considerable volume only after 2016, Eaton may miss the advantage as other module suppliers are expected to launch parallel systems by then. • In addition, Volvo with its captive hybrid module and first mover advantage as a leader in high end transit bus market is likely to dominate the Indian hybrid bus market.
  18. 18. 18NC7C-18 Region New Energy Powertrains Energy Storage Technologies Parallel Hybrid Series Hybrid Series-Parallel Hybrid Pure Electric Ni-Mh Batteries Li-ion Batteries Ultracapacitors (UCs) UC Hybrid Latin America Europe North America China India Russia ROW H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Green Powertrain and Energy Storage Standard Overview, Global, 2012–2020 Source: Frost & SullivanStrong Trend Towards 2020 Moderate Trend Towards 2020Market in 2012 Executive Summary—Transit Bus Powertrain and ESS Standard Parallel hybrids are expected to strengthen its market position due to the cost advantage over other systems. UCs and UC hybrids will gain prominence as a primary energy storage system, especially in hybrid buses.
  19. 19. 19NC7C-18 Geographical Presence (Production and Integration) Battery Chemistry North America EU China Japan South Korea India Cathode AESC Manganese Spinel LG Chem Manganese GS Yuasa Cobalt + Manganese Panasonic Phosphate Toshiba Phosphate Li-Tec Manganese BYD Phosphate JCI Phosphate Exide Polymer SK Energy Polymer + Manganese Hitachi NA Miljø Innovasjon AS Polymer Dow Kokam Manganese Executive Summary—Battery Manufacturer Geographical Map The limited geographic presence of Tier I battery suppliers (from an integration point of view) is opening opportunities for material suppliers within the electric vehicles (EV) battery space.  - Not considering  - Present (Integration Capability) Considering Options N/A- Not Available Source: Frost & Sullivan Battery Manufacturers H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Battery Manufacturer Geographical Presence, Global, 2012 The bankruptcy of major American battery manufacturers, such as A123 and Enerdal, will impact ongoing research and subsequently delay the improvements in Li-ion battery technologies.
  20. 20. 20NC7C-18 Market Ride Cost/trip Operational Subsidy Vehicle Price (12 m) Customer Types Key OEM Focal Points Latin America $0.75-$1 No subsidy $200,000-$225,000 Private operators • Financing and leasing • Localized assembly China $0.25-$0.30 Subsidized $60,000-$90,000 Public (state purchase and leased to private operators) • Product quality (life cycle enhancement) • Localized assembly • Advanced powertrain technologies India $0.2/stage Subsidized $100,000-$125,000 Public (state operator) • Product quality • STU collaboration North America $1-$5 Subsidized $300,000-$400,000 Public (local transit agency) • Advanced powertrain development • Reduced product delivery time Europe $1.5-$4.0 Subsidized $250,000-$350,000 Public (local transit agency) • Advanced powertrain development Russia $0.75-$0.83 Subsidized $130,000-$180,000 Public (local transit agency) • Localized assembly • Collaboration with local OEMs ROW $0.5-$10 Subsidized/ no subsidy $100,000-$350,000 Public/private • Distribution and after-sales network Executive Summary—Key Regional Focal Points for OEMs Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) should look at developing independent market entry strategies for different regions. Source: Frost & Sullivan H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Regional Market Scenario, Global, 2012
  21. 21. 21NC7C-18 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Yutong Volvo Wuzhoulong Foton FAW Kinglong CSR Times Ankai Sunwin New Flyer Golden Dragon Higer Gillig Daimler BYD ADL Optare Europe North America China Latin America RoW Executive Summary—Unit Shipment H&E Transit Bus OEMs Yutong led the global H&E bus market, and Volvo’s global footprint enabled it to sell nearly 1,000 units. H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Unit Shipment by OEMs, Global, 2012 Units Volvo is currently the only OEM to have representation in all key global markets for H&E buses. High growth in H&E bus sales has provided the Chinese OEMs the confidence to aggressively invest in the technology and to rapidly foray into capacity building. BYD will establish overseas plants starting with one in California in 2013. Uruguay has placed the largest eBus order and it is expected to be fulfilled though 2015. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & SullivanNote: Heavy Duty (HD) Transit Bus: 8T and above or 10m and above
  22. 22. 22NC7C-18 The global HD transit bus market is set to reach ~278,000 units by 2020 with a CAGR of 6.4% over the 2012 to 2020 forecast period. China and Latin America will contribute 47.2% of global volumes. 1 2 By 2020, market penetration of hybrid transit buses is expected to reach 9.7%, while that of electric buses is expected to be 5.4%. The combined market size is forecasted to be ~41,800 units growing at a CAGR of 20.7%. 3 Chinese manufacturers such as Yutong, Wuzhoulong, Foton, and Kinglong are expected to top the global hybrid and electric transit bus market. Volvo, MAN, and Daimler will feature as non- Chinese members of the top 10 hybrid and electric (H&E) transit bus OEMs by unit volumes. Vertical integration efforts to be increasingly pursued by Western OEMs while Eastern OEMs will develop synergistic relationships with Tier 1 suppliers of powertrain systems. 4 By 2020, parallel hybrid systems will strengthen its market share from 56% in 2012 to about 67%, and remain the most prevalent hybrid powertrain architecture. Market dominance by Eaton, Allison, and BAE is expected to be challenged by as ZF, Siemens, and new Chinese hybrid integrators such as Fugong and Santroll. 5 Globally, more than 250 BRT lines are operational or under various stages of implementation. This translates into enormous market potential for new vehicle purchase and replacement demand, especially for H&E buses. Key Findings Total H&E HD Transit Bus Market: Key Research Findings, Global, 2012–2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan