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2015 To-the-Point (Trend 1): Oil prices will stay below US$60
10000-18 A combination of geopolitics,
weaker economic growth, increased production (both OPEC and non-OPEC) and negative market sentiment, will keep oil prices at or below the US$60 per barrel mark in 2015, a marked change to expectations toward the end of 2014. For the oil sector the key implications are lower profits for oil companies, the stalling or cancelling of most new exploration projects, and lower revenues for oil services companies, due to cuts in expenditure budgets. Frost & Sullivan believes the long-term fundamentals of demand remain strong and that the price will gradually recover to US$70 in 2016/2017. 2015OIL&GAS TOTHEPOINT
20000-18 US oil production (now
a key factor in global pricing) is forecast to remain high in 2015, due mainly to improved operational efficiency resulting in lower marginal costs. USA PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN HIGH Investment in new exploration projects will remain low, as oil and gas companies wait to see the longer-term direction of oil prices and re-assess planned projects. Globally, reducing costs is a key priority for 2015; at $100 a barrel, the industry had experienced significant cost inflation, as oil services companies looked to maximise margins. Pressure is now on these services companies to reduce their costs to ensure a greater number of fields remain competitive at lower prices. . Volatility in the market will remain, as the market is currently very sensitive to any data or development that could indicate a longer-term price trend. . NEW EXPLORATION WILL REMAIN LOW COST REDUCTION WILL BE A PRIORITY MARKET VOLATILITY WILL CONTINUE Policy makers will continue to take the opportunity of lower oil prices to curb wasteful domestic fuel subsidies (which severely impact growth) and where possible increase stockpiles of strategic oil reserves (although storage capacity utilisation is already at 80% - 85% levels). GOVERNMENTS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE 2015TRENDS
30000-18 Top Oil Exporters Top
Oil Importers WINNERS AND LOSERSOIL PRICES STAY BELOW $US60 Negative Only a few states such as Jordan benefit. Saudi Arabia has huge assets reserves to rely on, but Iran is in a budget crisis. Negative Venezuela is in crisis as it budget deficit balloons. Brazil and Argentina face challenges in getting offshore exploration projects off the ground. Positive Very diverse as several major countries such as Nigeria and Angola are badly affected, but the continent as a whole gains. Positive Although US shale producers are losing out, the US as a whole gains from cheaper oil, due to high domestic consumption. The Canadian oil producing state of Alberta falls into recession, but Canada’s manufacturers receive welcome relief. Positive Much of the North Sea’s production is uneconomic, but the European economy gains. Negative Oil and gas contributes 50% to Russia’s budget and production from aging fields is slowing. Russia is in recession. Positive Japan and South Korea are totally dependent on imported energy. China benefits to a lesser extent as its domestic oil producers are hit. Positive Majority in region are net importers; India in particular benefits, both it and Indonesia reduce subsidies. NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EUROPE RUSSIA NORTH ASIA SOUTH ASIA
40000-18 Frost & Sullivan is
growth partnership company focused on helping our clients achieve transformational growth We are the world leader in growth consulting and the integrated areas of technology research, market research, mega trends, economic research, best practices, training, customer research, competitive intelligence, and corporate strategy. Frost & Sullivan has over 40 offices across the globe with more than 1,800 industry consultants, market research analysts, technology analysts and economists. For more information on Frost & Sullivan’s Energy & Environment Outlook 2015 please contact: Ross Bruton +44 (0)2079157808 firstname.lastname@example.org Senior Industry Analyst