SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 2
Baixar para ler offline
MARKET MATTERS DECEMBER 2009




REIT Preferred Securities
Historical Spread to the 10-Year Treasury


Where are spreads today?1
How depressed REIT preferred stocks had become earlier this year is highlighted by the fact that,
despite robust price appreciation in 2009, the yield spread between REIT preferred securities and the
10-Year Treasury remains relatively wide.
The current spread of 605 basis points (as of November 31, 2009) is still high when compared to a
long term average spread of 430 basis points.
As shown in the chart below, the yield spread was at its narrowest in late April 1997 at 203 basis
points and hit a historic high of nearly 1,450 basis points in early March 2009. We would note that the
long term average spread of 429 basis points includes the recent “crisis level” spreads, which were
well over 1,000 basis points.


   REIT Preferred Securities vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index 2
   January 6, 1997 – November 30, 2009


                         18%        REIT Preferred Securities Yield
                                                                                                                     17.29%
                                    10-Year Treasury Yield

                         16%



                         14%



                         12%
    YIELD (IN PERCENT)




                         10%     8.95%


                         8%
                                 6.92%

                         6%



                         4%
                                                                                                                     2.83%

                         2%     Low Spread                                                                           High Spread
                                April 28, 1997                                                                      March 6, 2009
                                203 bps                                                                                 1446 bps
                         0%
                               Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun    Dec   Jun
                               97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08                           08    09



   Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg and Forward Management, LLC. The REIT Preferred Securities Yield is
   measured for all periods after October 28, 2002 by the Wells Fargo® Hybrid and Preferred Securities REIT Index,
   primarily based on weekly data. Please see footnote 2 on the reverse of this page for more important information.
   Past performance is not indicative of future results.




What does this mean for REIT preferreds?
While visibility on common stock dividends in the REIT space continues to be somewhat limited, the
senior position offered by preferred securities provided insulation against dividend omissions. Since
most preferred dividends are cumulative, meaning that the issuer must accrue any missed dividend
as a liability and eventually pay it, preferred cash flows are typically more stable than their common
stock counterparts. Similarly, the default rate on preferred stocks is typically low, and usually
measures well below defaults on high-yield bonds.
Forward Thinking. Forward Funds.                                                                                 MARKET MATTERS DECEMBER 2009


We believe that REIT preferred securities spreads will continue to move back toward
their long term historical averages over time. With a strip yield of nearly 10% and a                              Please consider the investment ob-
600+ basis point spread over 10-year treasuries, holders of these securities have the                              jectives, risks, charges and expenses
                                                                                                                   carefully before investing in the fund.
potential for capital appreciation with attractive dividend yields along the way.                                  A prospectus with this and other
                                                                                                                   information about the fund may be
But how will the spread narrow? We believe there are two options:                                                  obtained by calling (888) 312-4100
                                                                                                                   or by downloading one from www.
TREASURY RATES                    Treasury rates are at relatively low levels. With the credit crisis, housing     forwardfunds.com. It should be read
INCREASING
                                                                                                                   carefully before investing.
                                  downturn and high unemployment serving as strong deflationary drivers,
                                                                                                                   The Forward Select Income Fund seeks
                                  it seems unlikely there will be much upward pressure on interest rates in        high current income and the potential for
                                  the near term. However, should rates rise, we believe the current wide           modest long term growth of capital.
                                                                                                                   The Fund will invest in lower-rated
                                  spread would serve to minimize downside risk.                                    debt securities and may utilize deriva-
                                                                                                                   tives for hedging purposes. The Fund’s
PREFERRED YIELDS                  Absent an increase in Treasury rates, investors may benefit from higher           use of short selling and derivatives in-
FALLING                           returns should REIT preferred prices increase.                                   volves additional risks and transaction
                                                                                                                   costs, and creates leverage, which can
                                                                                                                   increase the volatility of the Fund. The
Interestingly, after a period of relatively wide spreads in 1999, REIT preferred securities                        use of derivatives may also reduce
                                                                                                                   performance. The Fund may invest
delivered positive returns each year until 2004. The table below demonstrates the returns that                     a larger percentage of its assets in
followed this period of wide spreads:                                                                              the securities of a smaller number of
                                                                                                                   issuers, since it is a “non-diversified”
                                                                                                                   mutual fund.
   REIT Preferred Returns After December 31, 1999                                                                  1
                                                                                                                     “Spread” is the difference in yield between two
                                                                                                                   different investments. In this example, we use
                                                                                                                   “spread” to refer to the difference between the
    24.60 %                                                                                                        yield offered by REIT preferred issues and the
                                                                                                                   10-year Treasury rate. The price of yield-oriented
                                                                                                                   investments is based on both credit quality and
                                                                                                                   spread (the current price moves inversely to the
                                                                                                                   yield). A wide spread-to-Treasury typically indi-
                                                                                                                   cates more attractive relative pricing.
                                     16.41 %                                                                       2
                                                                                                                     In order to achieve the longest possible time se-
                                                                                                                   ries, this chart is created using two data sources
                                                                   13.14 %                                         to calculate the spread. The data set is generally
                                                                                                                   weekly data with some daily data. The source
                                                                                                                   for data from January 1, 1997 through October
                                                                                                                   28, 2002 is Forward Management and is based
              1                                3                             5                                     on an examination of all real estate companies
              YEAR                             YEARS                         YEARS                                 (including, but not limited to, REITs) and exclud-
              from                             from                          from
                                                                                                                   ing mortgage companies. Data for all periods
              December 31, 1999                December 31, 1999             December 31, 1999
                                                                                                                   thereafter is from the Wells Fargo® Hybrid and
              to                               to                            to
                                                                                                                   Preferred Securities REIT Index, which is an index
                                                                                                                   of preferred stocks issued by REITs (including
              December 31, 2000                December 31, 2002             December 31, 2004
                                                                                                                   mortgage companies).
                                                                                                                   The Wells Fargo® Hybrid and Preferred Securities
                                                                                                                   REIT Index is designed to track the performance
   Source: Zephyr Associates, Inc. Performance measured by the Merrill Lynch REIT Preferred Index.                 of preferred securities issued in the US market
   Past performance is not indicative of future results.                                                           by Real Estate Investment Trusts. It is a modified
                                                                                                                   market capitalization-weighted index composed
                                                                                                                   exclusively of $25 par perpetual preferred shares
                                                                                                                   and depositary shares listed and traded on either
While the chart above shows robust returns, it is worth noting that these returns were                             the New York or American stock exchanges.
generated during a period of declining Treasury yields and increasing REIT preferred                               The yield for the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note is
                                                                                                                   an index of constant maturity rates published
prices. From December 1999 to June 2003, Treasury yields declined nearly 300 bps                                   by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and
(from 6.28% to 3.33%).                                                                                             sourced from Bloomberg. Yields are interpolated
                                                                                                                   by Treasury from the daily yield curve. This curve,
                                                                                                                   which relates the yield on a security to its time
                                                                                                                   to maturity, is based on the closing market bid
Outlook                                                                                                            yields on actively traded Treasury securities in
                                                                                                                   the over-the-counter market. These market yields
The real estate business is likely to face challenges in the months ahead—primarily from                           are calculated from composites of quotations ob-
                                                                                                                   tained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
decreasing occupancy and rent levels. The challenge is on for real estate operators to stay                        The Merrill Lynch REIT Preferred Index is an
full and to retain tenants as well as talented personnel. We expect continued news flow about                       unmanaged index of investment grade REIT
                                                                                                                   preferred shares with a deal size in excess of
challenges in the real estate business.                                                                            $100 million, weighted by capitalization and con-
                                                                                                                   sidered representative of investment grade pre-
We believe REITs will fare relatively well in this environment. In our view the listed, public REITs               ferred real estate stock performance. You cannot
have—by raising equity and debt capital—put themselves in an improved position relative to                         invest in an index and many REIT preferred issues
                                                                                                                   are not rated or are below investment grade.
their privately-held peers. While we expect periods of volatility in the months ahead, we firmly                    Basis point (bps) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th
believe REITs are positioned to grow and prosper as the economy and the property markets                           of 1%, and is used to denote the change in a fi-
                                                                                                                   nancial instrument. Cash flow measures the cash
recover.                                                                                                           generating capability of a company by adding
                                                                                                                   non-cash charges (e.g. depreciation) and interest
As REIT stock values improve, yield compression is expected. We believe senior securities will                     expense to pretax income. A preferred stock is
continue to deliver attractive dividends with less risk and more stability than common stock                       a class of ownership in a corporation that has
                                                                                                                   a higher claim on the assets and earnings than
and high-yield bond alternatives. Our focus on well-managed companies with strong balance                          common stock. Preferred stock generally has a
sheets and our judicious use of leverage should deliver steady income with the potential for                       dividend that must be paid out before dividends
                                                                                                                   to common stockholders and the shares usually
moderate capital growth.                                                                                           do not have voting rights.
                                                                                                                   Forward Funds are distributed by ALPS Distribu-
                                                                                                                   tors, Inc.
                                                                                                                   FWD002277 013110
 For more information visit us at www.forwardfunds.com or call (888) 312-4100.

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Debunking Whole Life Insurance Myths
Debunking Whole Life Insurance MythsDebunking Whole Life Insurance Myths
Debunking Whole Life Insurance Mythsthweatherford
 
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation)
Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation)bandonfunds
 
Persistence inmutualfundperformance carhart
Persistence inmutualfundperformance carhartPersistence inmutualfundperformance carhart
Persistence inmutualfundperformance carhartbfmresearch
 
September 12 Quarterly
September 12 QuarterlySeptember 12 Quarterly
September 12 QuarterlyMark_Krygier
 
Portfolio copy
Portfolio   copyPortfolio   copy
Portfolio copydeej112
 
Offline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample Report
Offline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample ReportOffline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample Report
Offline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample ReportHBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd
 
Just What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways Gpseg
Just What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways GpsegJust What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways Gpseg
Just What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways Gpsegdickhooey
 
Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...
Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...
Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...marcus evans Network
 
Annuity Presentation Guide 2010
Annuity Presentation Guide 2010Annuity Presentation Guide 2010
Annuity Presentation Guide 2010Gary Duell
 
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate World
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate WorldAsset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate World
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate WorldWindham Labs
 
Retire Confidently Guide
Retire Confidently GuideRetire Confidently Guide
Retire Confidently Guideaa545041
 
How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?
How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?
How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?Quantum Mutual Fund
 

Mais procurados (20)

Debunking Whole Life Insurance Myths
Debunking Whole Life Insurance MythsDebunking Whole Life Insurance Myths
Debunking Whole Life Insurance Myths
 
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation)
Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation)
 
The low return of high yield
The low return of high yieldThe low return of high yield
The low return of high yield
 
The Power of Economic Science 2012
The Power of Economic Science 2012The Power of Economic Science 2012
The Power of Economic Science 2012
 
Persistence inmutualfundperformance carhart
Persistence inmutualfundperformance carhartPersistence inmutualfundperformance carhart
Persistence inmutualfundperformance carhart
 
September 12 Quarterly
September 12 QuarterlySeptember 12 Quarterly
September 12 Quarterly
 
Portfolio copy
Portfolio   copyPortfolio   copy
Portfolio copy
 
Ppt exc
Ppt excPpt exc
Ppt exc
 
What are the odds
What are the oddsWhat are the odds
What are the odds
 
Offline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample Report
Offline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample ReportOffline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample Report
Offline PMS (TMP - The Millionaire Portfolio) - Latest Sample Report
 
Just What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways Gpseg
Just What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways GpsegJust What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways Gpseg
Just What Is A Hedge Fund, Anyways Gpseg
 
Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...
Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...
Dominique Grandchamp: Gauging Institutional Interests and the Role of Regulat...
 
Annuity Presentation Guide 2010
Annuity Presentation Guide 2010Annuity Presentation Guide 2010
Annuity Presentation Guide 2010
 
Debt capacity
Debt capacityDebt capacity
Debt capacity
 
Dialogs Spring 2010
Dialogs Spring 2010Dialogs Spring 2010
Dialogs Spring 2010
 
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate World
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate WorldAsset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate World
Asset Allocation in a Low Interest Rate World
 
Retire Confidently Guide
Retire Confidently GuideRetire Confidently Guide
Retire Confidently Guide
 
How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?
How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?
How do you build an efficient mutual fund portfolio?
 
Vantage point
Vantage pointVantage point
Vantage point
 
Investing in a bull run
Investing in a bull runInvesting in a bull run
Investing in a bull run
 

Semelhante a REIT Preferred Securities Historical Spread To The 10 Year Treasury

Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09guest4823993
 
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09Frank Zhang
 
Fulton Financial Advisors
Fulton Financial AdvisorsFulton Financial Advisors
Fulton Financial AdvisorsDonald Marano
 
Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11
Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11
Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11Balbitz
 
Higher Rates Usually Equal Higher Risk
Higher Rates Usually Equal Higher RiskHigher Rates Usually Equal Higher Risk
Higher Rates Usually Equal Higher Riskfootball11
 
High Yield Bonds - returns
High Yield Bonds - returnsHigh Yield Bonds - returns
High Yield Bonds - returnsfootball11
 
Choose More Reward Less Risk
Choose More Reward Less RiskChoose More Reward Less Risk
Choose More Reward Less Riskbrentshaw
 
Cardinal update november 2012
Cardinal update november 2012Cardinal update november 2012
Cardinal update november 2012KimGibson
 
Market News Jan 2011
Market News Jan 2011Market News Jan 2011
Market News Jan 2011mhakerem
 
Sa investec opportunity_fund_brochure
Sa investec opportunity_fund_brochureSa investec opportunity_fund_brochure
Sa investec opportunity_fund_brochureCobus Minnaar
 
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews RYAN RENICKER
 
Paradigm Shift Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008
Paradigm Shift   Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008Paradigm Shift   Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008
Paradigm Shift Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008Xavier_Timmermans
 
Choose More Reward
Choose More RewardChoose More Reward
Choose More Rewardfree0288
 
aon intro_invest
aon intro_investaon intro_invest
aon intro_investfinance27
 
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
 
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation) Feb 12
Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)   Feb 12Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)   Feb 12
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation) Feb 12bandonfunds
 

Semelhante a REIT Preferred Securities Historical Spread To The 10 Year Treasury (20)

June 2011 wesletter
June 2011 wesletterJune 2011 wesletter
June 2011 wesletter
 
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
 
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
Va G Mx B Pricing 5 16 09
 
Advice for the Wise April 2012
Advice for the Wise April 2012Advice for the Wise April 2012
Advice for the Wise April 2012
 
Fulton Financial Advisors
Fulton Financial AdvisorsFulton Financial Advisors
Fulton Financial Advisors
 
Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11
Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11
Si Brochure 3 10 8 5x11
 
Higher Rates Usually Equal Higher Risk
Higher Rates Usually Equal Higher RiskHigher Rates Usually Equal Higher Risk
Higher Rates Usually Equal Higher Risk
 
High Yield Bonds - returns
High Yield Bonds - returnsHigh Yield Bonds - returns
High Yield Bonds - returns
 
Choose More Reward Less Risk
Choose More Reward Less RiskChoose More Reward Less Risk
Choose More Reward Less Risk
 
Cardinal update november 2012
Cardinal update november 2012Cardinal update november 2012
Cardinal update november 2012
 
Market News Jan 2011
Market News Jan 2011Market News Jan 2011
Market News Jan 2011
 
Sa investec opportunity_fund_brochure
Sa investec opportunity_fund_brochureSa investec opportunity_fund_brochure
Sa investec opportunity_fund_brochure
 
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews
Options on the VIX and Mean Reversion in Implied Volatility Skews
 
Paradigm Shift Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008
Paradigm Shift   Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008Paradigm Shift   Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008
Paradigm Shift Investing In Illiquid Assets Nov 2008
 
Choose More Reward
Choose More RewardChoose More Reward
Choose More Reward
 
aon intro_invest
aon intro_investaon intro_invest
aon intro_invest
 
EQUITY MUTUAL FUND
EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDEQUITY MUTUAL FUND
EQUITY MUTUAL FUND
 
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook
 
Intro To Value Investing
Intro To Value InvestingIntro To Value Investing
Intro To Value Investing
 
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation) Feb 12
Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)   Feb 12Bandon Isolated Alpha   Fixed Income (Presentation)   Feb 12
Bandon Isolated Alpha Fixed Income (Presentation) Feb 12
 

Último

Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.Precize Formely Leadoff
 
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...AES International
 
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technologyz xss
 
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptxRole of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptxNarayaniTripathi2
 
Vp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsApp
Vp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsAppVp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsApp
Vp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsAppmiss dipika
 
Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024
Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024
Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024Devarsh Vakil
 
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)ECTIJ
 
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentSBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentfactical
 
The Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng PilipinasThe Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng PilipinasCherylouCamus
 
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview documentHouse of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview documentHenry Tapper
 
GOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACT
GOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACTGOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACT
GOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACTharshitverma1762
 
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...Amil baba
 
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》rnrncn29
 
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Champak Jhagmag
 
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办fqiuho152
 
(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一
(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一
(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一S SDS
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economiccinemoviesu
 
Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...
Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...
Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...amilabibi1
 
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.ppt
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.pptAnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.ppt
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.pptPriyankaSharma89719
 
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGeckoCoinGecko
 

Último (20)

Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
Overview of Inkel Unlisted Shares Price.
 
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...The AES Investment Code -  the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
The AES Investment Code - the go-to counsel for the most well-informed, wise...
 
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
212MTAMount Durham University Bachelor's Diploma in Technology
 
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptxRole of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
Role of Information and technology in banking and finance .pptx
 
Vp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsApp
Vp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsAppVp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsApp
Vp Girls near me Delhi Call Now or WhatsApp
 
Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024
Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024
Market Morning Updates for 16th April 2024
 
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
 
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managmentSBP-Market-Operations and market managment
SBP-Market-Operations and market managment
 
The Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng PilipinasThe Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The Core Functions of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
 
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview documentHouse of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
 
GOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACT
GOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACTGOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACT
GOODSANDSERVICETAX IN INDIAN ECONOMY IMPACT
 
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
NO1 Certified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale bab...
 
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
《加拿大本地办假证-寻找办理Dalhousie毕业证和达尔豪斯大学毕业证书的中介代理》
 
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
Unveiling Business Expansion Trends in 2024
 
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
(办理原版一样)QUT毕业证昆士兰科技大学毕业证学位证留信学历认证成绩单补办
 
(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一
(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一
(办理学位证)加拿大萨省大学毕业证成绩单原版一比一
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
 
Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...
Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...
Amil Baba In Pakistan amil baba in Lahore amil baba in Islamabad amil baba in...
 
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.ppt
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.pptAnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.ppt
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.ppt
 
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
2024 Q1 Crypto Industry Report | CoinGecko
 

REIT Preferred Securities Historical Spread To The 10 Year Treasury

  • 1. MARKET MATTERS DECEMBER 2009 REIT Preferred Securities Historical Spread to the 10-Year Treasury Where are spreads today?1 How depressed REIT preferred stocks had become earlier this year is highlighted by the fact that, despite robust price appreciation in 2009, the yield spread between REIT preferred securities and the 10-Year Treasury remains relatively wide. The current spread of 605 basis points (as of November 31, 2009) is still high when compared to a long term average spread of 430 basis points. As shown in the chart below, the yield spread was at its narrowest in late April 1997 at 203 basis points and hit a historic high of nearly 1,450 basis points in early March 2009. We would note that the long term average spread of 429 basis points includes the recent “crisis level” spreads, which were well over 1,000 basis points. REIT Preferred Securities vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index 2 January 6, 1997 – November 30, 2009 18% REIT Preferred Securities Yield 17.29% 10-Year Treasury Yield 16% 14% 12% YIELD (IN PERCENT) 10% 8.95% 8% 6.92% 6% 4% 2.83% 2% Low Spread High Spread April 28, 1997 March 6, 2009 203 bps 1446 bps 0% Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg and Forward Management, LLC. The REIT Preferred Securities Yield is measured for all periods after October 28, 2002 by the Wells Fargo® Hybrid and Preferred Securities REIT Index, primarily based on weekly data. Please see footnote 2 on the reverse of this page for more important information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. What does this mean for REIT preferreds? While visibility on common stock dividends in the REIT space continues to be somewhat limited, the senior position offered by preferred securities provided insulation against dividend omissions. Since most preferred dividends are cumulative, meaning that the issuer must accrue any missed dividend as a liability and eventually pay it, preferred cash flows are typically more stable than their common stock counterparts. Similarly, the default rate on preferred stocks is typically low, and usually measures well below defaults on high-yield bonds.
  • 2. Forward Thinking. Forward Funds. MARKET MATTERS DECEMBER 2009 We believe that REIT preferred securities spreads will continue to move back toward their long term historical averages over time. With a strip yield of nearly 10% and a Please consider the investment ob- 600+ basis point spread over 10-year treasuries, holders of these securities have the jectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing in the fund. potential for capital appreciation with attractive dividend yields along the way. A prospectus with this and other information about the fund may be But how will the spread narrow? We believe there are two options: obtained by calling (888) 312-4100 or by downloading one from www. TREASURY RATES Treasury rates are at relatively low levels. With the credit crisis, housing forwardfunds.com. It should be read INCREASING carefully before investing. downturn and high unemployment serving as strong deflationary drivers, The Forward Select Income Fund seeks it seems unlikely there will be much upward pressure on interest rates in high current income and the potential for the near term. However, should rates rise, we believe the current wide modest long term growth of capital. The Fund will invest in lower-rated spread would serve to minimize downside risk. debt securities and may utilize deriva- tives for hedging purposes. The Fund’s PREFERRED YIELDS Absent an increase in Treasury rates, investors may benefit from higher use of short selling and derivatives in- FALLING returns should REIT preferred prices increase. volves additional risks and transaction costs, and creates leverage, which can increase the volatility of the Fund. The Interestingly, after a period of relatively wide spreads in 1999, REIT preferred securities use of derivatives may also reduce performance. The Fund may invest delivered positive returns each year until 2004. The table below demonstrates the returns that a larger percentage of its assets in followed this period of wide spreads: the securities of a smaller number of issuers, since it is a “non-diversified” mutual fund. REIT Preferred Returns After December 31, 1999 1 “Spread” is the difference in yield between two different investments. In this example, we use “spread” to refer to the difference between the 24.60 % yield offered by REIT preferred issues and the 10-year Treasury rate. The price of yield-oriented investments is based on both credit quality and spread (the current price moves inversely to the yield). A wide spread-to-Treasury typically indi- cates more attractive relative pricing. 16.41 % 2 In order to achieve the longest possible time se- ries, this chart is created using two data sources 13.14 % to calculate the spread. The data set is generally weekly data with some daily data. The source for data from January 1, 1997 through October 28, 2002 is Forward Management and is based 1 3 5 on an examination of all real estate companies YEAR YEARS YEARS (including, but not limited to, REITs) and exclud- from from from ing mortgage companies. Data for all periods December 31, 1999 December 31, 1999 December 31, 1999 thereafter is from the Wells Fargo® Hybrid and to to to Preferred Securities REIT Index, which is an index of preferred stocks issued by REITs (including December 31, 2000 December 31, 2002 December 31, 2004 mortgage companies). The Wells Fargo® Hybrid and Preferred Securities REIT Index is designed to track the performance Source: Zephyr Associates, Inc. Performance measured by the Merrill Lynch REIT Preferred Index. of preferred securities issued in the US market Past performance is not indicative of future results. by Real Estate Investment Trusts. It is a modified market capitalization-weighted index composed exclusively of $25 par perpetual preferred shares and depositary shares listed and traded on either While the chart above shows robust returns, it is worth noting that these returns were the New York or American stock exchanges. generated during a period of declining Treasury yields and increasing REIT preferred The yield for the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note is an index of constant maturity rates published prices. From December 1999 to June 2003, Treasury yields declined nearly 300 bps by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and (from 6.28% to 3.33%). sourced from Bloomberg. Yields are interpolated by Treasury from the daily yield curve. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity, is based on the closing market bid Outlook yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. These market yields The real estate business is likely to face challenges in the months ahead—primarily from are calculated from composites of quotations ob- tained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. decreasing occupancy and rent levels. The challenge is on for real estate operators to stay The Merrill Lynch REIT Preferred Index is an full and to retain tenants as well as talented personnel. We expect continued news flow about unmanaged index of investment grade REIT preferred shares with a deal size in excess of challenges in the real estate business. $100 million, weighted by capitalization and con- sidered representative of investment grade pre- We believe REITs will fare relatively well in this environment. In our view the listed, public REITs ferred real estate stock performance. You cannot have—by raising equity and debt capital—put themselves in an improved position relative to invest in an index and many REIT preferred issues are not rated or are below investment grade. their privately-held peers. While we expect periods of volatility in the months ahead, we firmly Basis point (bps) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th believe REITs are positioned to grow and prosper as the economy and the property markets of 1%, and is used to denote the change in a fi- nancial instrument. Cash flow measures the cash recover. generating capability of a company by adding non-cash charges (e.g. depreciation) and interest As REIT stock values improve, yield compression is expected. We believe senior securities will expense to pretax income. A preferred stock is continue to deliver attractive dividends with less risk and more stability than common stock a class of ownership in a corporation that has a higher claim on the assets and earnings than and high-yield bond alternatives. Our focus on well-managed companies with strong balance common stock. Preferred stock generally has a sheets and our judicious use of leverage should deliver steady income with the potential for dividend that must be paid out before dividends to common stockholders and the shares usually moderate capital growth. do not have voting rights. Forward Funds are distributed by ALPS Distribu- tors, Inc. FWD002277 013110 For more information visit us at www.forwardfunds.com or call (888) 312-4100.