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White Paper-EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT draft V11
“Towards a sustainable World: holistic, symbiotic, creative and survivable”
WHITE PAPER discussion on:
Governance, Policy, Standards: Support for Complexity in the Real World
EU Research – Integrating our way out of silos: purposeful Federation
Complexity Science & Society; EU Calls: CAPS; FI Science/FInES/FIRE; Global Systems;
(also COSI‐ICT; DyM‐CS; FOCAS; FuturICT)
Society: people, purpose & complex behaviour modelling (simulation & dissimulation)
The Peoples’ Toolkit: Computational Socio‐Geonomics/Metaloger (CSG/M)
ICT ‐ A new Kondratiev Shift: On Computable Society
SOCIO‐TECHNOLOGY
.
Author John Sutcliffe-Braithwaite, PublicComputing BV
Email john.sutcli@btconnect.com
Tel: +44 (0)7973 31-51-77
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White Paper-EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT draft V11
Computational Socio‐geonomics and GAIA
Wikipedia: James Lovelock: GAIA Theory
“an ecological hypothesis proposing that the biosphere and the physical components of the Earth are closely
integrated to form a complex interacting system that maintains the climatic and biogeochemical conditions on
Earth in a preferred homeostasis”. Except that society perturbs that homeostasis beyond its adaptive range.
DISORDERED COMPLEXITY ORGANISES
AT THE POINT OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY
Society’s role is to be purposeful,
active, and productive and chooses its
Pending the bleak hypothetical end to our end‐goals: it cannot avoid the GAIA
world and life implied by the above, our
Mission is to prevent waste:
“Taguchi quality is inversely proportional to the
sum total of the loss ...” FLUX
FLUX The objective is to keep recycling energy and work to fulfil our destiny
expressed as optimum development of our World. The metaphysical
question of destiny is outside the scope of this. All other choices, actions and
responsibility for them are imperatives for FuturIcT. (But not The Tragedy of the
Commons – a misnamed metaphor leading to simplistic/erroneous ‘solutions’)
The WORLD SOCIETY MODELLER (S‐GAIA) is a computer‐human confluent modelling environment used to model
Society including its relationship to the World ecology. It is the applied socio‐geonomics computational
platform. It will be pervasive across society’s systems in use, processing their dynamics and thus giving the
capacity to model and build a joined‐up GAIA view of the World, from a Society perspective.
Frontispiece: Global Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) is about SMART SOCIETY heeding the Gaia hypothesis
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White Paper-EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT draft V11
CONTENTS
1 White Paper-EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT ........................................... 5
1.1 Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5
1.2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................... 5
1.3 THESIS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 6
1.3.1 Governance, Policy, Standards (GPS): Support for Complexity in the Real World (CRW) ....................................... 6
1.3.2 EU Research – Integrating our way out of silos: purposeful Federation ................................................................... 9
1.3.3 Complexity Science & Society; EU Calls: CAPS; FI Science/FInES/FIRE; Global Systems; (also COSI-
ICT; DyM-CS; FOCAS; FuturICT) ........................................................................................................................................ 10
1.3.4 Society: people, purpose & complex behaviour modelling (simulation & dissimulation) ......................................... 12
1.3.5 The Peoples’ Toolkit: Computational Socio-Geonomics/Metaloger (CSG/M) ......................................................... 13
1.3.6 ICT - A new Kondratiev Shift: On Computable Society ........................................................................................... 15
1.4 SOCIO-TECHNOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 17
1.4.1 Scope ...................................................................................................................................................................... 17
1.4.2 Outline Computable Society Systems Requirements ............................................................................................. 17
1.4.3 Dimensioning The Problem ‘space’ - micro level ................................................................................................... 17
1.4.4 Dimensioning The Problem ‘space’ - macro level .................................................................................................. 18
1.4.5 Dimensioning The Solution ‘space’ - a meso level enquiry .................................................................................... 19
1.4.6 Dimensioning The Solution ‘space’ - the micro level.............................................................................................. 20
1.5 Disruptive Change, tipping points, decision & action: Closing the ‘Gap’ ..................................................................... 21
1.6 Core Concepts of the People’s Toolkit Socio-Technology Engineering ...................................................................... 22
1.7 Summary: Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................... 25
2 ANNEXES............................................................................................................................................................................ 34
2.1 Extended extract from the DYM-CS Submission......................................................................................................... 35
2.2 An R & D Perspective for Computational Socio-Geonomics/Metaloger(CSG/M) ...................................................... 43
FIGURES
Frontispiece: Global Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) is about SMART SOCIETY heeding the Gaia hypothesis
Fig.1 Complexity Theory: Information-process-Structure-Perturbation-Morphogenesis
Fig 2 The Science Computational Socio-Geonomics, the platform for World Society Modeller
Fig.3 The (CAS)2 World of Problem Solving, Optimisation, Purpose, Decision-making & Action – Assemblages of people, things,
ideas, happenings, meaningful patterns
Figure 4 FOCAS WORK PACKAGE STRUCTURE
Figure 5 “The Social Group Paradigm” points to personal psychological factors driving social groups & needing to be part of the
Socionome
Figure 6 – S-GAIA Strategic FuturICT Federation to build the Paradigm Change called ‘Computable Society’
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White Paper-EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT draft V11
Figure Zero
Abstract
a proposal for federation between Future Internet Science/FInES &
(STEeP)
CAPS to design, deliver, and deploy an affordance called
THE PEOPLES’ TOOLKIT whose rationale is:
Science of complex systems + SocioTechnology + Emergence + ecologies + People:
IS ‘SMART SOCIETY’ DYNAMICS
VALUES ARE THE NEW GAME IN TOWN
The science is Computational Socio-Geonomics
SMART SOCIETY sustainable world ecology
The dynamics of society are the result of Abstract values perturbing the CAS called Society
SMART SOCIETY is the continuous Living Lab of life, an in-vivo expression of the complex game of
living using the entire range of tools that we can devise to generate a better world
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1 White Paper‐EU Complexity Research‐an integrated approach‐THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT
1.1 Abstract
The proposition of this White Paper is shown in about 100 words in Figure zero, Abstract, above. The seven topics of this Paper
are all crucially interconnected in achieving EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT.
1.2 Introduction
This White Paper follows on from the ECCS’12 Policy Satellite, (or Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) Workshop, as I will
refer to it in this Paper), addressing the wider agenda of EU Complexity research. Complexity research is a Big Topic,
embracing such a wide field of scientific enquiry, of technology and methodology, of experts, players and practitioners that it it
seems to disappear into a black-hole of the un-doable. Dialogue is needed with a view to sharing our thinking and getting it to
the stage (sic) of a coherent field of enquiry and action – so that complexity seems as natural as Darwinian evolution does
today. The starting position is a hypothesis that ‘complexity’ is entirely a man-made concept and phenomenon, that bridges the
‘old’ sciences, and the humanities; more startlingly and significantly it is a discipline that is the first theoretical framework able
to give a coherent and actionable basis for study of the human condition (up to now the province of culture, the Arts, and play).
Ironically the aspect of complexity that seemingly involves the natural world is simply the result of man-made interference with
that world (as it has been since homo-sapiens ‘emerged’ as a distinct species). New formalisms mean it is becoming possible to
model the above. This is ‘On Computable Society’. It has enormous potential to change society.
We are sceptical that this proposition can make headway against the powers of the establishment (a dominant theme of
Computable Society). The plain fact is that Homo Sapiens, as Professor Dawkins has pointed out, is a selfish animal and his
big brain is simply his unique weapon in an armoury for furthering self-interest, a synonym for ‘(the) establishment’. Fortunately
the same set of affordances can be brought into play in pursuit of ‘higher aims’ than mere dominance; but ultimately the
techniques are the same: ‘my dominance is more significant than yours, buster’. Bringing this thesis into play will further the
EU Agenda of Horizon 2020. It is a third dimension in the Two Cultures world of C.P.Snow that our Author grew up with. The
agenda for this White Paper includes the seven Topics on the title page and these are only a start for a discussion of how to
usefully integrate different strands of EU research that have a commonality termed Complex Society. The need for an
integrated approach to complexity in the real world is generally agreed, the difficulty is in what this means and how to action it.
This Paper takes a pragmatic, people oriented view, roughly that it is an ideal that can only be attained by what we call ‘local’
action because generally something is better than nothing and what matters is to constantly seek ways to link these up so as to
further the integration principle. We propose a method for this that advances the state of the art though never permanently. To
do so requires a concerted effort to fit the topics together; they are not necessarily easy bed-fellows, but that is the nature of
complexity. Computable Society is more than intellectual ontologies; it is how we are as complex human animals.
A White Paper sets out some possible new ideas for discussion or trial when the prevailing climate is one of uncertainty. Its
agenda is part challenge to the old order, always change. In the complexity world this is about perturbation, morphogenesis
and emergence. All the themes on the title page share this agenda, stability is attractive but we have to work in an uncertain
world; certainty is usually flawed however attractive1. This is the world of human complexity that is both the crowning
opportunity for us, the human species, and also concomitantly our Achilles Heel. The radical hypothesis of this White Paper is
that all progress towards saving our planet, our future, and the well-being of us all, depends on our handling of complexity,
simplistically defined as “which way will the interacting systems go and how can we influence the outcome”. We argue that this
has always been part of our existence, new tools are now needed because countervailing forces (themselves part of the
complexity scenario) act against the common-good, sometimes accidentally, sometimes deliberately2. The other surrogate force
we need to be aware of is that of modernity that perceives the answer to mankind’s problems in false prophets such as things,
spurious systems, consumerism, and other such chimeras. Neither the ‘new’ nor the ‘old’ has pre-eminence. Any intervention
we design becomes part of the overall dynamics and influenced by all the other dynamics The proposition of this White Paper is
that The Peoples’ Toolkit enables us to process these emergent dynamics, categorise those that matter (for now), and do
something about it3. The new game in town is Meta-modelling. The above points to the new driving force that is core to
complexity of the human condition: ultimately we are all driven by systems of values. These have been identified by thinkers of
all Ages, but only now, with the work on CSG/M has this been rendered computable. It will result in the new order. The theme
of ‘values’ stands out as oft-emphasised, but rarely understood as a scientific concept, the nature of abstract thought, and
possibly ultimately quanta (I speculate). But firstly we must ponder this startling claim in the light of the seven topics of the
White Paper that are a topical agenda, core to The Peoples’, and the aim of SMART SOCIETY.
1
“It is a truth, universally acknowledged that a young man in possession of a modest fortune, must be in need of a wife” Jane Austen, Pride and Prejudice
22
“The world is out of joint, Oh cursed spite, that ever I was born to set it right” Hamlet
3
“Minister, we need to do something”; “Sir Humphrey: this is ‘something’; “Then we must do it, Minister!”: Peter Jay: “Yes Minister”, BBC Satirical comedy.
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1.3 THESIS
This section tries to identify the commonality in the seven representative themes of this White Paper – representative of a
holistic reality rather than just unconnected research domains. It would be hubris to pretend we know the answers – indeed any
answer to life’s imponderable challenges; we do, in the application of complexity science to ourselves, cla.im a small step for
mankind (no reference needed for that!):
 In each section we assert that understanding of societal complexity is in an early perturbation stage; trials at shaking
up the current status quo are only fitfully leading to real change
 The response of the research world is mostly to continue BAU which means not engaging with complexity but only
what one Professor called pseudo complexity4
 Perhaps the real illusion is to seek any form of stability or final morphogenesis: what is needed is to engage totally and
continually with ‘change’; this imperative is a different kind of stability, defined in the current CAPS Call as
sustainability
 Although all the stated topics can claim to have made progress in understanding the nature of complexity in our world;
(perhaps too easily by setting the boundaries so that their experiment will reveal the bit of complexity they like best);
the challenge is to continually cross the boundaries and examine the real complex phenomena that arise. The theory
then that everything is interconnected will be gradually elucidated and shown to be the fundamental nature of all our
being; what is then the final strange attractor is the ultimate question, by definition unanswerable. We consider all
local complexity research initiatives need to be shown to be consistent with a gradually emerging super experimental
framework, itself only a larger stage of local initiative. The paradox of holism is everything is local.
1.3.1 Governance, Policy, Standards (GPS): Support for Complexity in the Real World (CRW)
In the ECCS2012 Satellite Workshop on Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS)/CRW, the Keynote address by Dr Ralph Dum
(EU) set out a view of another kind of social space in which engagement with the swirling set of interacting complex systems
(whatever they are!) could take place. It is a world of continual live modelling, informatics driven, people engaged, a new kind
of social space, serviced by the Web. I liked his elegant portrayal of history: the web as: Alexandrian Repository (the complete
and definitive collection of all extant knowledge, aka ‘information’, it duly failed, struck down by a cataclysmic event....); Agora
(the classical democratic forum); as a modern social lab (the setting for modelling methods); and a new modern concept as
‘Polis’ (the living working out of the classic dialogue between the people and their Rulers, aka Governance/Policy/Standards
(GPS) authorities?. Only such a vision requires an answer to the new informatics concern: how can the dynamic people world
be represented in synchronisation with the dominant model of ‘people’ – we just get on with it. As professor Sylvie Occelli
expressed it in her comment, it is living people who all the time contribute the decision data that drives the dynamics, (‘things’
are not really as eloquent as their designers like to portray). The Peoples’ Toolkit combines the above insight and classical
Polis, only it delivers the in-vivo dynamic not by setting foot personally in the forum, but by the new paradigm called ‘On
Computable Society’. It will move beyond ‘things’ that reify often key ideas, to direct action as people deliver all the time – when
engaged, empowered and enabled. It will reveal the ultimate dynamic that is the human mind, deciding what matters, capturing
it in every separate computer system/app/decision tool/social modelling/social computing platform that exists, i.e.socio-
technology. It is a new epistemology as far as informatics is concerned, but as old as philosophy since the dawn of thinking.
It removes the distinction Dr Dum pointed out between models that drive prediction and complexity that simply describes ‘what
is’; CSG/M models it all to: make sense of the world; reach understanding(s) of ‘what matters’; and make better decisions on
‘what next’. Because there is no prediction in a complex world, only change and intervention(s). The distinction is not
significant: every intervention is action in pursuit of a future benefit. The future is merely a stochastic outcome, trial-and-error,
even a statistical conclusion to the matters in-hand - unless one accepts some absolute Frame of Reference (as in Religions) 5.
CRW involves contention between global vision and local action; the former identifies scales of problem not tractable by local
action alone, requiring at least coordinated action, and additionally radical intervention and change in the status-quo, amounting
to no less than a coherent working complexity paradigm. The paradigm we identify (along with others) is that CRW is part of an
evolutionary ecology that parallels the existing dominant ecology that is Darwinian evolution by natural selection, commonly
called ‘Survival of the fittest’. Our extension of this is to the ecology of human purpose, whose mantra is ‘Fitness for Purpose’.
This idea is not new, its realisation is both novel and like most innovations foreshadowed by much patient thinking that perturbs
the idea until a workable solution emerges. CRW is defined as the practical application of complexity understanding to solve
problems that involve people, i.e. all of them! In systems terms, how does complexity map onto real-world problem solving; what
is a problem-area ( ‘one man’s metier is another man’s posture’). A generalisation is they map with difficulty:
4
Von Ammon, quoting the originator of the phenomenon of Ubiquitous Complex Event Processing (U‐CEP)
5
“ (speaking as a Classical Greek Chorus: ...and whether in Argos or in England, there are certain Laws, unalterable, in the nature of Music, there is nothing
we can do about it – there is nothing we can do about anything: ....(back to being ordinary Dinner Party guests)...and now it is nearly nine o’clock, time for
The News, we must listen to the Weather Forecast and the International Catastrophes....” T.S.Eliot, The Family Reunion.
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 There are as many definitions of CRW as people, though some are more persuasive than others
o Complexity science, defined as ‘systems of systems that constantly interact and perturb each other’
needs a fundamental epistemology that can be shown to encompass the myriad of individual interactions, and
how these lead to change, i.e. morphogenesis. The basis of this in CRW is a mix of sciences with a relevant
structure and operation of the primitive forces that perturb the complex social-systems structure (the
interesting dimension for the social sciences), in extreme cases producing the so-called Lorenz strange
attractor effect, but more generally a range of emergent outcomes that are not solving a particular problem
but equipping the system to handle such problems when encountered. The nature of this, called emergent
behaviour, is constant change in the context of decision and action, or environment (what can be influenced),
or method (resources, competences, tools, effort) – a pragmatic definition of ‘change’. It is also, as will be
seen later, the basis of Meta-modelling. The science is embryonic still
o In contrast, the richness (or messiness) of human discourse and understanding means interpersonal
engagement supplies the necessary complex ontology, method, way through the Deleusian maze, and a
sufficity of acceptable choices to satisfy the actors. Local answers and research point up valuable aspects but
end up as self-fulfilling experiments (particularly when they control the data); this is a general problem of all
science, but particularly complexity where s/he who defines the boundaries of the complexity world
determines the outcome. Local action is always subject to complex meta-levels of influence, whether
scientifically or subjectively
o A range of human behaviours attempt to circumvent awkward discussions of who is right: power,
persuasion, authority (e.g. falling back on the chimera of expertise/science/technology/evidence as proof of
superior know-how), attempts to apply CRW end up modelling a subset enabled by the
experimental/investigation apparatus; this can rarely be applied in real-life and the disconnects continue with
each successive interpretation and trial of it. The real problem is that the subset of the real world is always
atypical, (and actually unique). Even ‘just getting on with it’ is a model, albeit most people would regard it is
pretty poor (it fails the ‘fit for purpose’ test that we will show is core to new-thinking)
 Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) determination seek to navigate the above terrain by well-tried control and
management of the complexity; the most successful system is bureaucracy (control of method before substance):
o The Old-Boys-Network exists in every power based political system; it is good fun and successful – if
you are an insider; it applies in every sphere of human activity – down to the Mafia
o It is challenged as a system by opposing forces of the masses; chief is the media and its current
flowering in social computing and the internet
o Current moves seek a rapprochement by bringing the two closer together, as in democratisation and the
Big Society, but a question remains as to whether any power-shift is truly taking place
 All the Papers at the recent (at least two years) Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) Workshops seek to introduce a
range of different approaches that introduce into the Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) World a richness of ideas
from science to sensitivity to the interpersonal dimensions:
o They all seek to introduce change into the system and demonstrate experimentally that it helps solve a
specific problem in the real (complex) world; the experiment involves how human behaviour comes into play
on top of some theoretical framework
o On top of varying degrees of success in solving a specific ‘local’ problem, the question they usually pose
is how far might they go in offering a generalised answer to complexity
o The workshops, as real life, reveal the difficulty and challenge of generalising to a huge canvas from
local perspective(s); complexity science is the complete answer to this but itself lacks any proven master
system mapping its theory to human behaviour in the real world where the Frames of Reference do not align
and hardly map onto each other
 A number of Papers stepped back from direct intervention in a real world messy (even wicked) problem area to
examine Frames of Reference that seek to define some generalised method for getting behind the complexity, the ‘un-
do-able’ nature, to a more manageable problem/method. In essence these all seem to seek the simple approach to
reduce pain and even effort – we are all lazy animals. Alas such methods may obscure the essence of the problem,
the solution, or just the senses, even for ulterior reasons – back to ‘values’ again:
o ‘context’ can be defined as those selection of presenting circumstances and evidence that focus most
precisely on the ‘real’ problem. Not all aspects of complexity matter, the art is identifying which. The essential
aspect of the context approach is to get more skilled in isolating what matters and testing it for completeness:
it is a method for ‘sufficity’ (Simon, again). We put such methods into the class of ‘Fitness for Purpose’, a
whole industry of which is Standards and Quality. Context is Meta-modelling by a more homely name.
o The lab simulation method tests often elegant theoretical frameworks and even more elegant
computational algorithms. Their Achilles Heel is the extent of over-simplification needed to become
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manageable as an experiment, that does not enjoy the almost unlimited canvas that real-life enjoys (almost).
The permanent risk is of believing one’s own PR and insisting on immediate translation into real world action.
o The narrative story movement falls back on chumminess – let’s all agree how well this fits, eh? Its
Achilles Heel is that it suits some people, but action affects all. Its strength is that it engages with a fuller
range of ‘people’ dynamics, but are they real or propaganda/persuasion. As a basis for serious change it
requires a different form of validation from the empirical method, and not just numbers of followers (sic)
o A number of Papers described approaches that build up over often long periods repositories of evidence,
and some actionable framework to apply it on-going to relevant areas of concern. Their strength is alliance
with some established organ of action; their Achilles Heel Is getting too close such that any independent
perspective is contaminated by the sponsoring area.
o A subset of the above area is reconstructive tools that support extraction of historically valid scenarios
from more or less sparse data; their limitation is how much invention has to be used (the success depends
on systems of cross reference to establish plausibility). This area also connects with historical alternative
academic theories that might have current relevance even though they ‘fell out of fashion’
 We can summarise the richness of ideas, methods and work generally in the field of understanding life as ‘nothing is
really ever out of date’, only the current fads and fashions vary and even become topical again sometimes
 The ‘area of tentative solution’ we will discuss later is to find a way of processing abstracted solutions (or context of
solutions) as if they were the real problem and had objective reality (which they did) to gradually identify what we call
Metaloger Tapestries of formative recurrent bits of reality even though they could not exist independently of their
presenting real-life ‘sponsor’. Surprisingly the Systems Analysis world of the last half-century has built up the
technology and methods for mapping Frames of Reference in order to ‘computerise’ human systems in the real world:
o Extending this to embrace complexity, defined as multiple interacting Frames of Reference seems rather
obvious; it usually fails by seeing the answer as a ‘master systems of systems’ which is the usual erroneous
charge levelled at Metaloger, i.e. Metaloger is the servant of the presenting systems and not their master
o The core challenge is reconciling multiple Frames of Reference, interacting asynchronously, where the
asynchronicity is much more than mere time: it is itself a multi-level set of interaction aspects, called Meta-
modelling (themselves a crucial extension of the original Dublin Core Meta-data)
 Continuing to explain this thinking takes us into the world of the solution…. This challenges the prevailing Frames of
Reference by incorporating them in the CRW ontology(ies) and making them subject to a new kind of validation and
verification based on meta-values. This will be shown to be the basis of CRW, new-methods, and how people do
things. This becomes ‘Computable Society’; it does not exist yet as more than a formative idea:
o So the current job that CRW has to do is to monitor the meta-structure of the real-world and intervene
when evidence of change points to deleterious outcomes rather than progress towards a coherent new
scientific method. I would describe this interim approach as pragmatic sufficity; it is prone to manipulation, of
which the usual kind is it pleases someone which is not necessarily a definition of scientific: it is simply the
pre-complexity world of rather less scientific exercise of authority and power.
o On the positive side, all experimentation worlds usually contribute to building up a coherent picture of the
problem area, directions of promising investigation; progress towards a solution. This in turn leads to the
meta-problem of rationalising different Frames of Reference in order to cross-relate findings (i.e. reach
agreement in the real world). . The only way such a body of knowledge can aspire to a true science is when
it builds into an empirical, repeatable experimental method; this is not the same as the way social behaviour
reaches consensus
 Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) are the definitive aspect of CSG/M and the on-going work of the
Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) Workshops community is to validate this statement of intent taking it to its
generalised conclusion as the support of human purposeful endeavour in all its forms, within a global canvas of
systems political, and including the control of negative alternatives that seek to undermine society and dominate it with
corrupt regimes. It does not exist without the actions of the masses, the People, the rest is the support and enabling
infrastructure, as is the Toolkit:
o So also are such current emphases as IoTS
o Another important initiative that is close to Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) is the CAPS Call (see
EU Calls sub-section 1.2.3)
o The NoE in Internet Science JRA4 addresses Governance/Regulation/Standards (& Policy?)
o The key modelling aspect of CSG/M embraces probably any and every ‘local’ modelling experiment;
includes the key ‘Lab of Life, element, which seems to tie in with EnOLL et al.
 The paradigm of human purpose does not eliminate any of the action and artefacts that emanate from reflection,
decision and action; they are ephemeral, local, experiments, they are Requisite Variety, a corrective to the hubris of
‘being right’, steps towards a better world, well-being, sustainability. All require integrated purposeful action.
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1.3.2 EU Research – Integrating our way out of silos: purposeful Federation
The idea of an inclusive society is not new, from the remaining tribes portrayed as coming under threat by Ralph Dum, to the
pioneering work of Elinor Ostrum referred to at the Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) Workshop, to the Paradiso consortium
and more, as governments seek for a new democratic partnership; the underlying dynamic is set out in Horizon 2020, but the
change needs to be at the grass roots level of involvement, caught in the term federated: what this means is a new social
model of research and not just rearranging the same old set of components. It is truly a complexity challenge and the
consortium behind The Peoples’ Toolkit will respond, starting with setting out the scale of change needed. The challenge of
moving from science to society is not well taken up; research looks to forge reputations before it serves mankind, the world of
serious research seeks the grandiose and competes for publicity, even though in the end it is the ordinary person in the street
that pays. Where is the principle of the public good and how is it defined? Current fads like consumerism, wealth, reputation
drive life; the social computing scene is, frankly and virtually meaningless yet has captivated research itself; we are moving in a
world that has lost its hold on reality in favour of the exotic. Science only comes out of the closet when it has a story that can
capture headlines. This does not argue for abandoning new science, but for sharing the arguments with society and accepting
wider accountability. We argue that society engaged, empowered and enabled will back research; this is not arguing against
the expert, the specialist, the innovator/entrepreneur, the Academic Lab, Big Business, or excellence of any kind, but proposing
a re-look at how it all fits together in a universally interconnected world:
 Complexity science has an important part in integrating what seems a disconnected world at best, but dangerously
greedy or just self-centred at worst. The alternative is a structure of control that amplifies delivery of the common
good. In complexity terms the ‘old’ system is closed, lacks requisite variety, is positive feedback controlled (procedural
based) and does not meet the criteria of Fitness for Purpose. The issue is what can change this now global gravy
train? Again in complexity terms, a system of cybernetic control is needed so that what should direct and control ‘the
system’ gives way to a complex system of systems directing mankind’s pursuit of what is worthwhile. This is set out in
the Horizon 2020 vision; it needs enabling; it needs the EU research world to take its own medicine
 This Paper proposes that a societal system of systems meets this agenda. Only it is more fundamental than just a
further overlay of systems control: it is based on a radical change in approach called The Peoples’ Toolkit that
processes the strategic agenda, all local initiatives, and Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) – not as a Big Brother
initiative (most PPPs’ are that) but as a fundamental re-orientation of society that we call a PPPPP (Public Private
Partnership of People and Purpose). Its basis in a new direction for a complex science of society does not fully convey
its fundamental paradigm change, its new technology basis, and most importantly it is run by people, empowered,
engaged, and enabled
 The most transformative feature is it does not itself change anything! It is an enabling science that is new; it works
within what exists now and it changes itself from within. We talk about change in the EU Research world, but what we
really mean is the power of complexity science to bring about transformative new models of everything. The Dutch
proverb applies: we first eat ourselves what we serve to others; everyone wants the same happiness (Anna Karenina).
 The challenge of us all collaborating (federating is the EU terminology) has to start with a methodology; we think The
Peoples’ Toolkit is worth considering as a trial without suggesting we have a prescriptive answer. We are ready for a
dialogue from which we will benefit as much as we hope to do the same:
o We look at Calls we are considering and intend to start our federating at the Open Days
o We are looking into Coordinating actions whether specific to our interests or others that could have
possible synergy with what we have to offer
o We will open up a new form of Community of Practice dedicated to the Theory, Technology and Societal
aspects of CSG/M
 Have we missed anything out? The main practical suggestion at the conclusion of the Governance/Policy/Standards
(GPS) Workshop is to coordinate activities – a kind of federation of research into Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS):
o Building up a Centre of Excellence in the meaning, methods, infrastructures, technologies of
Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS)
o Institute the regime of validation and verification of Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS)-in-action
o Defining the new area of societal involvement and its associated enabling framework
o Tackling the underlying Achilles Heel of all Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) which is its basis in
power and associated structures
o Cataloguing experimental work and matching to areas of lacunae in practice
o Liaising with expert bodies in relevant areas impacting Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS)
o Maintaining communications and promulgating findings in the Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) field
o Support work, EU Calls, formal journals, education
o Actively work with the European Complex Systems Society and other such world-wide bodies.
 All the above can be actively helped by The Peoples’ Toolkit, a proposition that needs exploration and detailed work
 A Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) research and Professional Body needs to be promoted.
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1.3.3 Complexity Science & Society; EU Calls: CAPS; FI Science/FInES/FIRE; Global Systems;
(also COSI‐ICT; DyM‐CS; FOCAS; FuturICT)
The juxtaposition of all the above Calls commences our aim to be seen as setting out a way forward according to Horizon 2020.
We are exploring the scale of federation as defined by DG Connect (Mario Campolargo, opening the FIRE Workshop). We are
not the only SMART outfit in town but need to show our proposition is more inclusive and supports albeit critically current ‘local’
directions. The significant use of CSG/M is direct support of new federated research (as we have long argued).
The Peoples’ Toolkit models the world according to a new paradigm Computational Socio-Geonomics, and an in-vivo/in-silico
computational infrastructure called Metaloger. It is an overlay on real-world decision and action driven by human purpose
conceived in the mind – as all human activity is. The lacuna we note is the absence of this key perspective in all current social
modelling. [Technically every scientist who conceives of a ‘model’, or any aspect of its realisation, must think-out its design, but
this is external to the key driver that is the subject of this Paper, namely how complexity comes about and is factored into the
picture.] The key word in the paradigm is in-vivo.
An early warning: we will argue that not all types of social modelling are the same (obvious!), and probably some will not ‘fit’
with the core premise of CSG/M, namely its driver, in ‘people’ terms and as the central ICT paradigm, is the complex system
that drives all other systems in the human world, namely the human mind. To be more specific, the paradigm specifically
contrasts the basic Darwinian evolutionary mechanism with its corresponding mechanism in the human mind. (This leads to a
basic suspicion of all forms of modelling that treat humans as more elegant ants, bees, termites or any other instinct-driven
creature; we recognise crowd behaviour and other such Darwinian throw-backs, but only as vestigial and undesirable relics of
our animal species heritage. Sometimes this is specifically exploited; it is a corruption of human behaviour.
Every EU Call seems to put an emphasis on Society, e.g. benefit to society, expanding our understanding of society, improving
on reification. We seek is to reverse the above perspective and define society as itself the exemplar of complexity and seek to
make it work better. In this perspective society will define what complexity is all about and ‘do it’ in every scientific field. The
direction we propose will be as formative as the prescient warning of The Two Cultures by Professor C. P. Snow, in Cambridge
in the fifties and sixties; only our two worlds are Science and Society (where science is equally pure & applied, i.e. technology).
 We will seek to show CAPS (Collective Awareness Platforms for Sustainability & Social Innovation) is completely a
societal complexity matter, pointing to the need for society to understand its complex nature and everyone to become
engaged, empowered and enabled in this radical new direction. We will propose the outcome as society reappraising
its role as guardian of our world future because it is our own. This is GAIA (see frontispiece). It is an agenda for the
next century and even millennium; this Paper defines CAPS as the core driver of Computable Society:
o We like the emphasis on: Governance, and even on styles of living; in general the Call is ambitious,
however, it then picks as examples the usual set of BAU Topics, actually ‘topical’, such as collecting data
from IoTS, Big Data, and even mobile phones
o None of the above are necessarily right or wrong in their emphasis; the question is what strategic goals,
plans and approaches are there, and how might specific areas of enquiry and experimentation ‘fit’ with the Big
Picture, strategies, and methodology(ies)? position on ‘sustainability’, viewing this as a long-term strategic
quest whose solution depends on complexity science and on societal visions and goals (in which people will
be instrumental). To cherry-pick frankly trivial moves such as mobile phones to counter poor eating habits is
non-sensical – except as cheap publicity: we are against even quick wins that are not strategic or even
seriously tactical
o The problem with the CAPS Call in the short term is it is short term – it does have a synergy with FI
Science and we should promote a more in depth social agenda for CAPS Science as Future Internet
 FI Science is already bracketed with CAPS and this points to an immediate federation with the FI Science Network of
Excellence.
o JRAI towards a Theory of Internet Science aligns with CSG/M (as a GOMS);
o JAR2 Emergence Theories & Design aligns with CSG/M
o JAR3 Evidence & Experimentation aligns with CSG/M
o FI hints at its role as a driver of society, but this needs more precise definition that we would base
around Computable Society. Future Internet is not merely topical, a microcosm for all overloaded systems or
resources (it is that); it is an example of an incredible technology that is at risk of losing its early vision as ‘for
the people’, behind the big-business technology (that it is also); it is being commandeered to be the utility for
delivery of many worthy new directions in the associated worlds of business, government, communication,
entertainment but so far has not sought or found any fundamental realignment around the current ‘complexity’
imperative, especially as this pertains to society
o It has also become a vehicle for directing and enabling the life-style of society, from the legal to the
dubious, to the illegal; in this respect it is a technology of propaganda and manipulation, masquerading
behind instant gratification, sense-stimulus without reality, substitute for responsible consumption
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o The alternative is to redefine FI as the society backbone defined as ‘how we exist as the sentient
species in a complex world’ and therefore how we play our part as has been the case in every age, culture,
society and family. In this definition FI does become the social computing of choice but centred round a new
paradigm of Computable Society
o The other current confused message is to mix up the word ‘backbone’ with that term as a technology
component/layer in the delivery technology; we will argue for a reappraisal of the technology infrastructure
around a new societal paradigm (that goes beyond the current ‘data package’ dimension); this itself will
herald a new definition of ‘data and traffic’ but more so of ‘what for’ in support of society. THIS IS TO
REDEFINE WHAT FI SCIENCE IS ABOUT: it is also a core driver of Computable Society
o FInES is already deeply engaged in wrestling with new paradigms for enterprise information and a focus
of research will be how to extend its scope to a new societal paradigm; we can expect this to centre around
world resources and sustainability to take enterprises beyond their current delivery/logistics mandate. It too is
a core driver of Computable Society
o FIRE seems to us to need to turn round its focus from current infrastructure to what totally new
infrastructures can be foreseen; for this the FIRE Community has to engage with FI Science and FInES as
well as others to anticipate and support new FI paradigms (this was anticipated at the recent FIRE workshop,
but no discussion of possible new paradigms was possible in the timescale available). The significance of
Computable Society will require an infrastructure of intrinsic experimentation which is the given-role of all
mankind: FIRE redefined as ‘Socio-technology infrastructure’ is a core driver of Computable Society.
 Global Systems is still in its conceptual phase and we intend to go directly for pitching this as the vehicle for a new
societal paradigm
 The early Calls (COSI-ICT, DyM-CS and FOCAS) all sought to find complexity in Man-made constructs; this is only
possible if actually designed-in; all the Calls point to important ideas for human exploitation of complexity (in our
conception, they are natural for a virtual model of how human purpose designs a model in the mind of society that is
the basis of ‘what exists’.) The rejection of this radical hypothesis in favour of reifyng complexity as a property of ‘the
natural world probably lies behind the disappointing outcome in which no change has come from these calls except to
show we can model reality in any way we choose but that is only a game).
o COSI-ICT proposes intelligence lies in ICT, instead of enhancing ICT as a tool to leverage human
intelligence; the former is a chimera
o DYM-CS looks for a natural phenomena when such can only be of interest to us if we wish to change
the natural world; the only dynamics of interest to us are those that are man-made; there is no system
displaying complex dynamics that is not designed by human intelligence
o FOCAS makes the same error.
 Until we accept that all societal phenomena is a man-made construct and the process of construction is complex and
can be modelled, we will continue to absolve ourselves from our responsibility and seek to find ‘natural causes’.
Accepting our role is much more interesting and ultimately fruitful:
o The games of the British Civil Service can be modelled (Yes Minister parodied them and was great
entertainment) but sophisticated games are a well known way to block real change; our modelling will
harness the same tricks but to elucidate real life, not block it
o There were several key Papers at the recent Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) Workshop that
explored the range of complexity modelling that could embrace real-people striving for real change; we
propose that a complexity toolkit must be a compiler of all such initiatives: variety of human life is a match of
perceived human complexity and neither has a unique perception of some superior truth
 We hope to learn an idea or two from FuturICT with whom we have been a supporter since the beginning. It may be
that we are small fry swimming in the global pond they have so expertly sailed across; we think we have a crucial
complementary scientific direction to offer FuturICT:
o FuturICT has stated they are not directing their efforts on the bottom-up/grass-roots dynamics as these
are manifest in individual action; we will therefore seek to find and fill that lacunae
o Correspondingly we will find The Peoples’ Toolkit needs to engage with the FuturICT Big World.
o But it is too early to start and speculate on the direction of federation and cooperation with the FuturICT
Consortium, they are proposing a working framework that fits with the Horizon 2020 vision.
 The S-GAIA Consortium advocates a strategic coordination framework for all EU Societal research, with many of the
same focii as ‘Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) outlined earlier. Much of this could usefully follow the directions
set out on the FuturICT Web Site; it fits with the Horizon 2020 vision. Such a framework would not exclude any of
what we term ‘local’ initiatives; nor does it imply any moratorium whilst a strategic pathway is mapped out.
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1.3.4 Society: people, purpose & complex behaviour modelling (simulation & dissimulation)
The core scientific issue to be considered by this White Paper is the locus of ‘complexity’. Currently, systems of values do not
form the agenda of scientific research, being handed over to philosophers, religion, or (most dangerously) those holding political
power. Their output becomes the Statement of Requirements for research; paradoxically this needs to change because ‘one
man’s metier is another man’s posture’6. This Paper asserts it is a societal phenomenon.
Discussion of Complexity science from the perspective of society and the real world is in an interim stage of development from
the many Papers on General Systems Theory, the learned academic studies and the seminal Ilya Prigogine Nobel Paper on
Perturbation and Morphogenesis, to current experimental techniques and trials, especially Agent Based Modelling7. Academic
studies process data in sophisticated ways to reveal new insights; no one yet has succeeded in applying the same to dynamic
human behaviour (some partial understanding is derived from post-hoc analysis of consequences).
How we behave is the most basic of the primitive forces driving complex outcomes in children, families, social entities and every
aspect of society. It would seem essential to bring these forces into a modelling environment driven by human will and
wilfulness. But this does not figure significantly yet outside of the medical sciences which is surprising given the power of the
individual to display the heights of creativity and also of depravity. It is too simple an explanation to say that ethics are outside
science. Concomitantly research does not automatically follow ethics, (and indeed can be hi-jacked for ulterior motives). In
general research tends to assume the intelligent human mind proceeds in one direction (simplistically called ‘the general good’)
and not in the other direction called immoral, criminal, selfish, or simply wicked. Alas this is neither simple nor true; the same
capacity for directing human thought and action towards the common good is equally directed in the opposite direction. In
between these polar opposites is the spectrum of behaviours that are neither one nor the other but simply disagreed-on.
In human systems terms the recognition that this is contested features in all philosophical systems; at best it leads to some new
and valued consensus that re-orders our systems of values. In Ross Ashby’s seminal work on Control Systems it is termed
Requisite Variety. In the real world the process of deciding which is simply the power game (irrespective of what systems of
values, tools of persuasion, or set of compulsion methods, are brought to bear). Structures of human values drive everything
from the inter-personal level through the entire world of enterprises, up to Governance, and sanction systems: all are human
constructs that can be modelled; they drive complex emergence.
The key difference between our approach to modelling and that of all EU Calls and systems up to now, is we do not let the
decisions regarding Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS), the ‘truth’, or even EU Authorities be taken as a given. The Agenda
is itself continually perturbed and the final morphogenesis is arrived at on a much more inclusive basis and is never fixed and
firm: it is evolutionary. Letting go of traditional power is possibly the final frontier in saving our world; the commonly
understood basis of power structures are simply evolving society. Why is this approach not anarchy by another name?
The secret to our model is it does not interfere with real-life ‘complex events’ but makes the basis of complex interaction the set
of purpose/decision/action ‘moves’ made by the protagonists in life’s march. These are virtual moves until instantiated into
‘events’ that change something, but more important is these virtual moves interact in the network of complex systems co-
existing. They trigger evolutionary changes by being the foresight from which the evolution is determined. This rather over-
simplified story is that of human thought as the designer of our complex existence (or existences).
Whatever conclusions the workings of the model of human purpose derive this is not the same as action; the toolkit is neutral;
action is never neutral. The toolkit however does provide the means to experiment with different directions of human purpose
and thus simulate possible different ‘worlds’. It is experiments in the mind acted out in an in-vitro environment (where this term
denotes the virtual world of Metaloger and not the petri-dish). It is role-playing taken to a different dimension.
This capability to model real-life in-vivo and do so without the real-world consequences (unless the switch occurs) is possibly
the most significant feature of CSG/M. An observation that is hypothetical at this stage of our development is that the most
significant Lorenz-type effects are those conceived in the mind and shared without necessarily acting-them-out. The strange-
attractor is not an event but an idea. Get the message? We think and therefore we exist (cogito ergo sum) is not as substantial
as “We think and action becomes possible with each other”. The power of the mind beats that of muscle every time.
We assert that all EU societal research needs to be based on active, dynamic processing of complex value systems. This will
be a service The Peoples’ Toolkit provides to the World, in-vivo, everybody, everything, everywhere, everyday, fuelled by
people, enabled, engaged, and empowered. Of course human behaviour is wider than this; systems of values can also be
exercised instinctively via our animal genetic heritage; what we alliteratively term dissimulation identifies the world of corrupt
values. Values are built into our real world: processing them as complex systems is new and the foundation of society.
6
JSB Thesis 1999, Metaloger
7
See the Brian Castelini Chart reproduced in the OU Introductory Survey of EU thinking behind the 2011/2012 EU Calls
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1.3.5 The Peoples’ Toolkit: Computational Socio‐Geonomics/Metaloger (CSG/M)
Infinite variety of human action coupled with total inter-connectedness are synonymous in The Peoples’ Toolkit. The world as
modelled is a symbiotic, holistic, totally interconnected representation. Such terms need careful definition in the toolkit to
double check they mean the same to everyone: the reality is there are different flavours according to the dynamics of the
moment – as everyone knows from their moods, let alone other peoples, or even the quantum dimensions. This rich reality is
essential if costly; it is Requisite Variety8.
We can view CSG/M together with FI as a common experimental infrastructure and methodology for Society. The Science of
this needs elaboration, together with the Technology(ies), and the ‘people’ engagement (we use that term rather than the
obsolete one of human interface, or human factors as we called it in the sixties). The terms ‘experimental’ and ‘methodologies’
have rather well understood meanings to researchers, to prototype designers, but they are also part of the human condition, as
every parent knows from observing their baby(ies) at play. (We note that the same also operates in the terrible ‘two’s’ and teen-
years). CSG/M simulates this ‘play’ as the on-going way things work. The big scene is infinitely richer and it may seem to
trivialise global problems to see them and everything in-between as extensions of basic human behaviour; the richness
consists in how we as humans bolt things together and make bigger things (more than objects, or even ideas, we interefere with
the natural world, as CAPS/FIRE states, we fail to ensure the sustainability of our world – or actually destroy it and each other.
Rather than lecture on History or ethics, however, this paper places the locus of ‘complexity science’ in society, made up of us
all, forming a huge Complex Adaptive System (CAS) – the largest one in existence. The Peoples’ Toolkit is about what drives
this complexity and how this underpins everything, everyday, everybody, everywhere. This definition drives the term
‘Geonomic’ in the scientific basis of CSG/M: the driver is systems of values (including all abstract entities devised by mankind).
 Computational Socio-geonomics/Metaloger (CSG/M) is a simulator of complexity across the systems of the world; the
simulations are in real-time, in-vivo, processed in Metaloger Labs; the design of the simulator is at the conceptual
stage with a consortium from academia, industry, and society involved. Our aim is for involvement to be open, free,
ubiquitous and pervasive across society, globally:
o S-GAIA is the consortium of interested parties involved in CSG/M development, that comprises:
development of the infrastructure for CSG/M and its deployment across society; it comprises society, its
governance, and scientists in: the social sciences, enterprise systems, communications, Future Internet,plus
computational scientists and engineers developing the new paradigm through its formative years
o The application of CSG/M is a huge new industrial opportunity exceeding the scale of all current
commercial enterprise systems, of social-computing, and of the scientific community outlined in this Paper;
 CSG is a designed solution to processing complexity in any societal setting, involving a new ‘science of values’; the
man-made structures of values comprise a huge, dynamic system of complex interacting forces that operate to perturb
the entire structure of society and mankind’s workings within it, it is called, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, SOCIONOME;
the activity of compiling Socionome is called Meta-modelling (it is a new overlay on systems):
o they are evolutionary, as highly differentiated as their counterpart, the genome, on which the modelling
ideas are based, but evolution is entirely in real-time (in-vivo in fact)
o real-time, real-life human action, most of which is represented already in computer systems, has a
further level of evolution as people break the rules, driven by the exigencies of the real world
o both of the above drive complex change in the systems of the world as social transactions take place;
we are only interested in the meta-level changes
o indirectly the transaction instances are a trace of world-wide systems activity at the level of
SOCIONOME and its associated phenoytypical behaviours in real-world instances of socionome behaviour
o the ‘phenotypes’ mirror real-world systems and are a tapestry of their complex activity according to
designed, evolutionary and accidental change in world systems; we call them METALOGER instantiations
(NB the Peoples’ Toolkit has no direct interest in the business of real people and systems)
o a set of principles, rules, and real-life operational realities will evolve out of the research into CSG/M
 METALOGER9 is the platform and operational infrastructure for the Socio-technology that underpins CSG/M; it
comprises an overlay on the participating systems of the world, paralleling IoTS in many ways; its operation is a new
sort of meta-ERM system extending through all levels of society from top to bottom:
o Metaloger-Labs do the day-by-day operational business, both individual instantiations and their
compilation into the infrastructure of living complexity
o Components are billions of interacting Meta Frames of Reference (MetaFoRs), synonymous with
ubiquitous Metaphors!)
8
Ross Ashby, Psychologist, Control engineer, cybernetician
99
Metaloger is a neologism from meta‐ ‘over‐arching’ and ‐catalogue ‘ordering a set of resources’, only the set is societal‐models‐in‐use. To this can be
added the process‐control meaning of the term ‘loger’: a device that records signals for feedback and control of the process and analysis of its outcomes.
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o Metaloger Tapestries form a living compilation of the complex events of the world and their emergent
properties; they can be viewed as a stochastic, living record of complexity in action. They are the equivalent
of Big Data, available in perpetuity to re-run simulations
 The NPD10 of The Peoples’ Toolkit can be viewed as a conventional exercise in bringing a new technology to market,
with several aspects that make it unique:
o The technology is radical in that it does not interface with ‘users’ (the old paradigm of ‘information; it is
Socio-technology; the entire concept of information processing changes to human cognitive, social, and
cultural interaction; this presents as a new paradigm as it becomes embedded in the way ICT is experienced
o The operational dynamics are not determined by levels of transactions processed, but by the stochastic
outcomes of interactions across a structure of dynamic meta-levels (complexity-in-action); the interactions are
social in nature, recorded and indexed by social characteristics (related to the Meta-FoR ‘behaviour’)
o Societal interest and involvement with CSG/M is unpredictable, even seven billion world population is a
crude measure; the interest in complexity will determine the traffic.
o There will be a new industry of ‘Metaloging’, professionally, engineering, applications, support,
equipment’. The nearest parallels are FI and the telecommunications industry
o The science basis will evolve rapidly, from our understanding of the significance of Meta-modelling at
every level in society,. To a totally new basis of ‘engagement’ with Metaloger; we define this as cognitive,
cultural, entirely inter-personal, experiential, modelling and role-playing, and based on holistic experience
recording
 The biggest change from introduction of The Peoples’ Toolkit will be in the extent of impact on people and society of a
radical new Socio-technology:
o The experience of the mobile communications industry together with first generation social computing is
an indication, and although the true outcome cannot be readily foreseen, experience shows people adopt new
ICT very readily; how much will depend on the penetration of the complexity paradigm into everyday life
o Social commercial penetration and new apps is likely to be huge, especially in the area of marrying up
true social experiencing and engagement; this will include new entertainment and educational fields. But it is
all a bit speculative at this stage
o Enterprise and organisational penetration is difficult to predict as current capability is relatively mature
and sophisticated:
o Indirect societal impact will be a spin-off from opening up the sustainability ticket, dependent on
complexity and involving major attitude changes across society; there is a huge potential, from quantification
of resource impacts (optimisation and threats); long term life-style impacts will (in our view) occur not from
ceasing exploitative behaviour, but growing belief and commitment to alternatives – not foreseeable yet
o Lastly there is the area of improvement in Governance and we anticipate (probably some wishful
thinking here) that considerable progress can be made in moving towards a science based system and away
from a personality-based system.
Perhaps the greatest impact of CSG/M will come from its perceived relevance as a generalised processor of complexity. This is
entirely dependent on take-up of the core idea that all complexity is societally driven and the old paradigm of looking for it in
historical data, lab simulation and artificial societal engagement is simply out-of-date and basically incorrect and ineffective:
 An interesting turf war is possible as the new ideas perturb the old:
o We think cooperation in devising tools for use within the Toolkit concept are the best way forward
o Gaining traction within the complexity community is important
 We conjecture there is enough news-worthy potential in CSG/M for it to gain support
 The biggest supporters club will probably come from outside the current commercial players
o This aspect is in the realm of opportunism, PR, and finding one excited partner (we are working on it).
There is one further dimension to take-up, support, commercialisation and application of CSG/M: it concerns the forensic world,
i.e. the recognition that modelling values, behaviour and socio-technology is equally relevant to the bad as to the good. We do
not discuss this side of our work in this Paper; at a top-level it concerns:
 Modelling society that tries to keep under the radar, i.e. does not ‘join in’
 Simulating society that does join in - in the hope they can exploit it (conventional criminals)
 Simulating societies-within-societies.
The long term relevance of The Peoples’ Toolkit lies in profound social change; we hypothesise this will accompany the EU
programme for sustainability, generating an unstoppable movement for wide change. We hope so.
10
New Product Development (NPD) is a serious professional framework for design, construction, roll‐out and usage of new products through their whole‐life
cycle
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1.3.6 ICT ‐ A new Kondratiev Shift: On Computable Society
The theory of complex change embraces long waves of perturbation and morphogenesis in society; today’s society also
displays pervasive short waves, whose source is people and mobile phones. We think this can be better served by new ICT.
Economists have argued about the waves of societal development since the middle ages and broadly agreed with the dominant
forces giving rise to them; there is a clear development from agrarian to industrialised society; that this shows no sign of
stopping; its economic and social results are profound; and that this has fuelled the current wave called The Age of Information.
This section discusses why ‘On Computable Society’ is potentially the next Kondratiev Shift, an apparent paradox since both
are driven by ICT. though that should not be equated with either BAU or more and more: the information deluge is clear and
the illusion of this generating understanding does not need arguing. What can be demonstrated is the ability of ICT to enable
such volumes to be organised and processed so that the task of deriving useful meaning can take place. The question is What
meaning? The answer is the meaning contained in societal complexity whose origin is people thinking about life.
Our world is dominated by the forces that broadly have been at work through all the identified waves of ‘progress’; against
scientific criteria, technological efficiency, economic benefit they stand proud. That is the positive picture; the negative
concerns the criteria identified by the latest EU Calls, such as threat to our world from resource depletion, and in general what
the Call calls ‘sustainability’, but we call by the Lovelock term the GAIA hypothesis. The other side of all this World change is
the impact on people, society, well-being and the sustainability of society itself – such concepts as fairness, the common good,
progress (however defined). One of the obvious new waves is the focus on people and the associated new ICT exciting a
global opening up of society(ies) to wholesale ‘people’ involvement. What is less clear is what are the roots of all this change
and is it more of the same? The Thesis of this Paper is that the signs of societal change are not fundamental but BAU and the
only difference is ICT cannot prevent enterprising people making use of it in ways not planned or even anticipated; as
perturbation of the system the evidence is clear; what is emerging is not planned change; what outcomes there will be is
unclear. It all comes into the category of random disruption, we assert a deeper understanding of complex systems can offer
hope for greater control of the directions of change.
The unstoppable movement that started with European revolutions that spread globally, that focussed on individual rights and
responsibilities, has reached a tipping point where power cannot contain and channel it (the BAU model). But we assert it can
be channelled by the new paradigm of People Power. This is the paradigm behind the new ICT processing systems of values,
because where we recognise these in ‘things’ – science, technology, innovation – they are all products of people in society, not
just doing things but thinking about what they want to be doing. We need to process this huge force, the basis of the CAS
called society, present in GPS, Quality, ethics, protest, solidarity, and ordinary life when empowered, engaged, and enabled.
We have identified strong forces concerning the future of society and the world - resource depletion is the key one; similarly
logistics is a mature and effective discipline for moving resources globally; but the most important resource, and it is unlimited,
is people. Together we can save our world, enhance its viability and sustainability, increase its fairness, make it more
worthwhile not just in material terms but the wider context of well-being. Science, technology, engineering fuel this societal
ambition identified in this Paper as Socio-technology, and in the sciences as the most important complexity phenomenon yet to
be recognised. It is not just a complexity phenomenon but concerns in complexity terms abstract ideas/concepts, and hence it
forms the new Information paradigm. Getting this out to the People so everyone can experiment with the meaning and conduct
of 'Life’ is our scientific quest, though we prefer to call it socio-technology at this stage.
The most modern forms of ICT excite and attract followers because they give the illusion of deep involvement, and already that
is being questioned. We want to see this new wave of ICT mature into a new information paradigm of society. The paradigm of
meaning is gathering pace all the time; the Kondratiev wave is simply the way we choose to go:
 ‘Computable Society seeks a symbiosis of ICT and society as profound as any change in how we live since time
began: how do we process the world around us to establish its ‘meaning’ for us as the human species and beyond that
to our world and its continued existence (the GAIA imperative)
o We will argue that ICT thus far has simply followed the traditional route of experts exercising their
authority to tell the populace what meaning is, what to do with it, deliberately offer exciting ways of achieving
a spurious human-computer confluence, and sometimes how to become involved in it; the mechanisms can
be attractive, often are seductive, may well pay rewards - and so on. The new question is what can ICT do
for ‘people’ that is truly life-changing
o The deep question(s) are those of every major societal shift, of each Kondratiev Shift, of the total
dominance of society by ICT, in every way as dangerous as all previous paradigm changes, even as they
each promise untold benefit to mankind. This Paper does not in any way seek to make a popular critique of
ICT but to challenge its very basis as complexity science and society impacts on this last frontier of
Information
o This analysis concludes with the same message as all the six topics: people have the creativity,
insights, will and motivation to change our world; its is all about local action supported by specialists (and not
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White Paper-EU Complexity Research-an integrated approach-THE PEOPLES TOOLKIT draft V11
the other way round). However one single track has pointed the way: the information systems of the world
already define how society has progressed and are a continued living repository of societal change; they will
continue this role only embracing the new dimension of complexcity (sic). The key step will be to base this on
the fundamental dynamic of how we function as sentient people:
o It is not data/information/meaning that changes the world but peoples’ engagement, empowerment, and
enablement to bring their will to bear on what we do with our world, today, tomorrow, everyday, everything,
everywhere, everybody.....
o This emphasis on human will as the driver of computable society has also to keep a focus on reality: it is
also about human wilfulness (it always has been)
o We are discussing a world where ICT does not any more fuel our preferences (or anything else) but our
values and how we implement them (to use the current paradigm terminology)
 The new paradigm will, like all previous, evolve as research accelerates, as conditions dictate or even thwart it; nor
does this Paper suggest we can know in advance how far it will go or even whether it will be overtaken by that other
technological imperative - built in obsolescence. Huge fields of opportunity are open to further research:
o The merging of data processing and the human activity of turning information into meaning, decision,
and action is far more complex and profound than current routine information processing; this is the cycle of
purposes, values and intention, that we have called human will and wilfulness. This is the Frame of
Reference dimension, itself the basis of any system realisation, and the basis of complexity in human affairs
and society
o Unlike the definition of a ‘piece of data’, or an ‘object’, or a java applet, a piece of complexity is a rich
holistic pattern of significance derived from continual and changing interaction with all the worlds it comes into
contact with. It is the living enactment of ‘the sum is greater than the parts’. Meaning derives from the
purposes that fuel it and ultimately derive significance for ’I’ and for ‘society’. Since this is in continual flux,
multiple meanings are the norm (and the stamping of such meanings is the new indexing)
o Information becomes a record of behaviours, based on cognition through to action; research is in its
infancy regarding how this relates to the human senses, the constructions in the mind/brain that embody
feelings, emotions, understandings; closely allied is the most obvious human attribute of forming pictures,
representations, symbols and ultimately language to communicate and share understanding; the old concept
of data becomes subsumed by a completely human/societal new type of meaning called a ‘social enactment’;
this is the unit of complexity – literally a perturbation in a MetaFoR that is part of a complex system
o These are complex events, where ‘event’ does not indicate an instance in an algorithmic chain,
especially not one that comes to an end (in the Turing sense), but some further accretion of meaning in the
sense of an unfolding drama (that is the continual set of perturbations building up and possibly leading to
some emergent change
 The Kondratiev wave of change is the post-hoc label that will be placed on the new handling of complex society if we
get it right; we can discuss it in ICT terminology; ditto complexity; and increasingly in terms of specific societal change
in dealing with the affairs that concern us: EU Research foci; all the Future Internet actions underway; Governance,
Policy, Standards (GPS); etc. We will not talk about the data deluge any more, but the permanent richness of the
Tapestry of Life;
 Early ICT processed calculations, from simulating weapon trajectories, to esoteric computational conundrums, to
processing governmental statistics. The development over the second half of the twentieth-century to what was seen
as ‘’Business Data Processing’ abstracted the human and societal element in the form of processes to be fulfilled to
deliver routine efficiency similar to mass-production in factories:
o The human element was irrelevant or signalled errors to be sorted out outside the system; the ‘people’
interface was managed out as far as possible
o The real-world was excluded to achieve efficiency; this produced the inevitable backlash
o Awareness that complex life and its potential was being thwarted by ICT’s limitations remained a lonely
and futile complaint by the sociologists. We would describe the resulting world as one of missed opportunity;
The necessary correction to the system has been slow in building momentum, but enough interested people
are now around to start to bring about real change and not just workrounds
 We consider we are the pioneers as much as Jo Lyons did in their ‘Lyons Electronic Office’ (the LEO Computer project
in the UK in the fifties); the real pioneers were the General Systems Theory (GST) thinkers; today’s band of
researchers seek to bring social simulation out of the Lab to being a mainstream concern of ‘the People’11. On
Computable Society will be the outcome.
11
Front page of Metaloger Thesis, JSB 2000, quoting Addison, Volume 1 of The Spectator: “It was said of Socrates that he brought philosophy down from the
Gods to dwell amongst Men; I am desirous of having its said of me that I brought it out of the closet to dwell in the coffee house and at the dinner table.”
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1.4 SOCIO‐TECHNOLOGY
1.4.1 Scope
This section sets out the Systems Analysis project that is needed to design, build and deploy a starter ICT solution for
Computable Society. It follows a schema set out for EU Calls, though that is unlikely to be the correct way to deliver the early
prototype CSG/M solution. This is now the Agenda for our dialogue with a range of up-coming EU Calls.
1.4.2 Outline Computable Society Systems Requirements
This submission discusses Computational Socio-Geonomics and Metaloger (CSG/M), called "On Computable Society", a
potential paradigm shift 75 years after "On Computable Numbers", or a century after Wallace and Darwin12. The frontispiece
shows its value proposition: to optimise and arguably prevent waste. It computerises how we intercommunicate as social
higher animals. This is purposeful (wo)mankind, now striving towards a sustainable future.
This Paper defines ‘complexity’ for SMART SOCIETY (Governance/Policy/Standards (GPS) to grass-roots functioning) as how
a necessary level of control is attained in an uncontrollable environment. That paradox is resolved by sufficity13,: the toolkit is a
means to this – considering the pragmatics as actionable, goal oriented means to achieve a desired end-result in a context
ranging from cooperation, through co-petition, to outright hostility. We are all players in this environment, it is a world of Meta-
modelling. The new toolkit is embedded in society to handle its ubiquitous and pervasive complexity. The project combines
New Product Development (NPD) and Action Research into this new communication paradigm and how to apply it. It does not
itself provide specific real-world ‘solutions’. It interfaces with these to process their interconnections with everything else.
The People’s Toolkit extends the current ABM concept to model any instance (theoretically all) of societal complexity viewed as
a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). It is an in-vivo virtual meta-world overlaying the entirety of ‘how we do things here’. It is
realised as a post-Darwinian set of evolutionary ecologies; its radical feature is to model human abstract values – as species
roaming the meta-world and triggering the entirety of what we observe as complexity. Darwinian ‘survival of the fittest’ is
replaced by ‘Fitness for Purpose’. There are as many genus/ family …domains of this concept as there are human solutions to
‘life’. The toolkit models them all whether someone approves or rejects them (ultimately by waging war).
The model is neutral: the world is not; SMART SOCIETY is not. SMART SOCIETY processes complexity and elucidates its
meaning; the project merely constructs the affordance for this. The workshop examines how this toolkit can be realised and
deployed in any domain of SMART SOCIETY.
1.4.3 Dimensioning The Problem ‘space’ ‐ micro level
In any SMART SOCIETY domain, there is a context of sub-objectives enabled by a strategic infrastructure that drives the
enterprise forward. This generates an operational framework that itself will work within other constraining and enabling
frameworks, all comprising the larger complex system that needs to exist as a viable ecology.
There is a general understanding of the idea of an ecology, but not yet a consensus on what it means as a solution to the
complexity of society. Ecologies are the collection of entities forming a complex society: “Complexity is the interaction of
systems of purposeful behaviour thought out in the human mind”. This is proposed as the design paradigm for The Peoples’
Toolkit in its quest to factor complexity into all its domains. Computational Socio-Geonomics/Metaloger (CSG/M) processes the
societal behaviours that uniquely generate the observable complexity in human affairs, and asserts these must be understood
to address complexity. However, bringing complexity, social science, and the ICT world together has always been
problematical.
The Peoples Toolkit bolts together tried and tested ideas chiefly from General Systems Theory, with innovations regarding how
complexity is experienced, how this relates to our cognitive world, and how this in turn forms new perceptions about what that
world is made up of. SMART SOCIETY modelling in a complex world requires a special kind of joined-up approach involving:
Meta-modelling; how people in the field engage with the process; the kind of tools that are necessary to support the process;
and most crucial, how the findings are translated into new decisions and actions. All these are at the heart of what ‘complexity’
means in society, from the individual, through all organisation, enterprise and government structures up to supra-government
levels. The toolkit processes the practicality of a CAS called SMART SOCIETY. The EU has to master change to make sure
any new paradigm is not stifled before birth by reactionary forces.
12
Huxley/Kettlewell “Charles Darwin and his World” (1965), p91, quoted Wallace (contemporary formulator of the Theory of Evolution) who concluded in
1864 that ‘further evolution of the body was unnecessary – specialised tools and machines were more efficient than any bodily organ’. ... as a result, Man
possesses ... a second mechanism of heredity ... he can transmit culture ...changes in ideas, techniques, social organisation and artistic expression .. Man has
embarked on a new psycho‐social phase of evolution ... in which he has responsibility for the whole planet ... for this task he must learn the rules of this ...
the mechanisms by which it operates. [i.e the brain/mind is special!]
13 Simon
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