World Cup Mathematics

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What are the chances of your country winning the 2018 World Cup? FGV's mathematical model predicts that Brazil has the greatest chances of winning. http://fgv.br/emap/copa-2018

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Using diff-in-diff approaches and the propensity-score matching, this study focuses on firm-level Tobin´s q and Market-to-book outcomes for Brazilian firms who in 2008 were required by Law 11.638/07 to adopt the full International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by 2010. Brazil’s tier-system of corporate governance standards for publicly-traded firms, its uniquely wholesale adoption of the IFRS, and the previously considerable gap between its national GAAP and IFRS readily lend the scenario to research, which thus far finds small or inconsistent results when focused on IFRS adoption-related outcomes in Europe and China. However, while these features recommend the transitioned Brazilian equity market to analysis, additional unique features, such as its small population size and its limited historical data -- of varied quality – increase the challenge in selecting a suitable empirical methodology. Using quarterly data from 2006-2011, control firms in the Nivel II and Novo Mercado tiers of Bovespa which already complied with higher quality accounting standards are matched to treatment firms in the Regular and Nivel I tiers with similar averaged values of size and sector. Our results suggest that there is a positive impact on Tobin´s q and Market-to-book for firms who are forced to adopt IFRS in Brazil. We can observe the same results when we consider all variables winsorized at 5% level. We also find a positive relation between the firm value (measured by Tobin´s q and Market-to-book) and net income. Firms with higher net income are more likely to have higher Tobin´s q and Market-tobook. In an opposite way, we find a negative relation among firm value, size, Ebit-to-sales, sales growth and PPE-to-sales. All results are statistically significant at 1% level. ' Date: 2017-03 Authors: Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira Gallucci Netto, Humberto Silva, Vinícius Augusto Brunassi

Mandatory IFRS adoption in Brazil and firm value

FGV Brazil

We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999–2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. We provide evidence for our conjectures. We show that returns on NASDAQ composite index are explained by the flow of high-growth (or highly underpriced) IPOs; the high underpricing can be fully explained by firms’ characteristics and strategic goals. We also show that, contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting, there was no deterioration of issuers’ quality, and top underwriters and analysts became more selective. Date: 2017-03 Authors: Autor Carvalho, Antonio Gledson de Pinheiro, Roberto Benjamin Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira

Dotcom bubble and underpricing: conjectures and evidence

FGV Brazil

Legislation that seems unreasonable to courts is less likely to be followed. Building on this premise, we propose a model and obtain two main results. First, the enactment of legislation prohibiting something raises the probability that courts will allow related things not expressly forbidden. In particular, the imposition of an interest rate ceiling can make it more likely that courts will validate contracts with interest rates below the legislated cap. Second, legal uncertainty is greater with legislation that commands little deference from courts than with legislation that commands none. We discuss examples of effects of legislated prohibitions (and, in particular, usury laws) that are consistent with the model. Date: 2017-03 Authors: Guimarães, Bernardo Salama, Bruno Meyerhof

Contingent judicial deference: theory and application to usury laws

FGV Brazil

We provide a new education quality index for states within a developing country using 2010 Brazilian data. This measure is constructed based on the notion that the financial returns obtained from an additional year of schooling can be seen as being derived from the value that market forces assign to this education. We use migrant data to estimate returns to schooling of individuals who studied in different states but who work in the same labor market. We find very heterogeneous educational qualities across states: the poorest Brazilian region presents education quality levels that are approximately equal to one-third of the average of all other regions, a gap three times larger than the one suggested by standardized test scores. We compare our index with standardized test scores, educational outcome variables, and public expenditure per schooling stage at the state level, producing new evidence related to education in a large developing country. We conduct an education quality-adjusted development accounting exercise for Brazilian states and find that human capital accounts for 26%-31% of output per worker differences. Adjusting for quality increases human capital’s explanatory power by 60%. Date: 2017-02 Authors: Brotherhood, Luiz Mário Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Santos, Cézar Augusto Ramos

Education quality and returns to schooling: evidence from migrants in Brazil

FGV Brazil

On October 31st and November 1st, 2016, the Center for Regulation and Infrastructure from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV CERI) organized a two-day workshop discussion in collaboration with the World Bank and ABRACE. The event gathered regulators, government representatives, academics, operators, financial institutions and investors. The debate focused on the main challenges faced by the current restructuring process of the Brazilian gas industry. This document presents the main points discussed during the debates. Date: 2017-01 Authors: Vazquez, Miguel Amorim, Lívia Dutra, Joísa Campanher

Establishing a Brazilian gas market

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What makes er teams efficient? A multi-level exploration of environmental, te...

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We examine the impact of government equity ownership on the degree of internationalization of emerging market firms. Our analysis of 173 Brazilian publicly traded firms from 2002 to 2011 shows that the higher the equity held by the state through the state investment bank and the pension funds of SOEs and privatized SOEs, the higher the firm’s degree of internationalization. Firms in which the government shared control with families, and with both families and foreigners, had a higher degree of internationalization. Our findings underline the importance of the institutional context in explaining the internationalization of Brazilian firms. Date: 2016 Author: Sheng, Hsia Hua

The impact of government equity investment on internationalization: the case ...

FGV Brazil

The Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is a theoretical approach for the study of controversies associated with scientific discoveries and technological innovations through the networks of actors involved in such actions. This approach has generated studies in Information Systems (IS) since 1990, however few studies have examined the use of this approach in the e-government area. Thus, this paper aims to broaden the theoretical approaches on e-government, by presenting ANT as a theoretical framework for e-government studies via published empirical work. For this reason, the historical background of ANT is described, duly listing its theoretical and methodological premises. In addition to this, one presented ANT-based e-government works, in order to illustrate how ANT can be applied in empirical studies in this knowledge area. Date: 2016 Authors: Fornazin, Marcelo Joia, Luiz Antonio

Techno-government networks: Actor-Network Theory in electronic government res...

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New rural identity as emancipation: Freirian reflections on the agroecologica...

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Impacts of natural disasters in Brazilian supply chain: the case of São Paulo...

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This article reports results from an economic experiment that investigates to what extent voters punish corruption and waste in elections. While both are responsible for a loss of welfare for voters, they are not necessarily perceived as equally immoral. The empirical literature in political agency has not yet dealt with these two dimensions that determine voters’ choices. Our results suggest that morality and norms are indeed crucial for a superior voting equilibrium in systems with heterogeneous politicians: while corruption is always punished, self-interest alone – in the absence of norms – leads to the acceptance and perpetuation of waste and social losses. Date: 2016 Authors: Arvate, Paulo Roberto Souza, Sergio Mittlaender Leme de

Condemning corruption while condoning inefficiency: an experimental investiga...

FGV Brazil

"If the opposite of pro is con, then the opposite of progress must be the Congress”, says a popular joke about the divided government in the US two-party presidential regime. Divided government occurs when different political parties control different branches of government. By this arithmetic definition, however, divided government almost always takes place in multiparty presidential regimes, given that the party of the president rarely obtains solely the majority of seats in Congress. In order to govern and pass legislation, a minority president has to build and sustain post-electoral coalitions in multiparty settings. The received wisdom on multiparty presidential regime is that constitutional and agenda-setting powers and presidential preferences would be the key determinants for a successful minority government. In addition to those aspects, however, this paper claims that the degree of congruence between the preference of the presidential coalition and the preference of the floor of the Congress is the crucial ingredient. That is, regardless of presidential preferences or characteristics, the higher the preference incongruence between the president’s coalition and the floor, the more difficult would be the coalition management and the higher the probability that the Congress would work as the opposite of progress. It is, in fact, the equivalent functional of divided government in multiparty presidential settings. This paper explores conceptually and empirically the effect of the distance of preferences between the coalition and the floor in the multiparty presidential regimes in Latin America. Date: 2016 Authors: Pereira, Carlos Melo, Marcus André B. C. de Bertholini, Frederico

Coalition management under divided/unified government

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We investigate the implications of providing loan officers with a compensation structure that rewards loan volume and penalizes poor performance. Using a unique data set provided by a large international commercial bank, we examine the three main activities that loan officers perform: monitoring, origination, and screening. We find that when loan officers are at risk of losing their bonus, they increase monitoring and origination, but not screening effort. On the other hand, having lost a bonus in the previous period does not entail higher effort. We document unintended consequences of the incentive contract showing the incompleteness of such contracts. Date: 2015 Authors: Behr, Patrick Gottfried Drexler, Alejandro Gropp, Reint Guettler, Andre

Financial incentives and loan officer behavior: multitasking and allocation o...

FGV Brazil

Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions in transportation. However, the agricultural expansion needed to produce biofuels may endanger tropical forests and thus offset the benefits of fossil fuel substitution. Whether this occurs depends on the extent to which increases in biofuels supply arise from gains in yields per acre or expansion in growing areas. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle the roles played by acreage expansion and yield increases in the supply of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. The model is estimated using a panel of 1.8 million fields, which is built using remote sensing (satellite) information of sugarcane activities. My estimates imply that, at the margin, 94% of new ethanol comes from increases in area planted and only 6% from increases in yield. Direct deforestation accounts for 12% of area expansion. Balancing carbon emissions from deforestation and the carbon saved by fossil fuel substitution, I find that it would take about 20 years for the lower emissions from sugarcane ethanol to “pay back” the added emissions from deforestation. As an illustrative policy experiment, I consider the effects of a 5 billion gallon sugarcane ethanol mandate (~ 3% of US gasoline consumption). Such policy would lead to a 1% price increase and deforestation of about 9,000 sq. km. ( ~3/4 the size of Connecticut). Date: 2015 Author: Sant'Anna, Marcelo Castello Branco

How green is sugarcane ethanol?

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Is it possible to reconcile one of the institutional strategies to promote development, known in the literature as “the developmental state”, with contemporary democratic systems of government? If so, what are the challenges, trade-offs and potential gains that such an effort may entail? The vast literature on “the developmental state” claims that it is more likely to succeed under autocratic regimes. While a “democratic developmental state” seems possible in theory, there is very little empirical evidence to show how it would work in practice. This article tries to contribute to this debate by analyzing the case of Brazil, a country that transitioned from a military dictatorship to a democratic regime in the late 1980s, and has been moving towards increasing state interventionism since 2002. While the policies implemented by the “New Developmental State” in Brazil have been explored in the academic literature, their democratic dimensions remain unchartered. Date: 2015 Authors: Prado, Mariana Mota Schapiro, Mario Gomes Coutinho, Diogo R.

The dilemmas of the developmental state: democracy and economic development i...

FGV Brazil

Corporate social responsibility and strategy in the aerospace industry: the case of CSeries at Bombardier Authors: Diego Antonio Marconatto, Luciano Barin Cruz GVcasos - Revista Brasileira de Casos de Ensino em Administração (Brazilian Journal of Teaching Cases on Administration). Abstract: This real-life case addresses the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and competition in the setting of a global company. It focuses on how a corporation may manage its CSR policies in order to gain competitive advantage in a cutthroat market. In order to illustrate this reality, we present the strategic dilemma from the point of view of the CSR manager of Bombardier – a Canadian multinacional company that manufactures aircrafts and trains – regarding the decision of whether to adopt a competitive or a collaborative approach towards the main competitors in the aerospace industry.

Corporate social responsibility and strategy in the aerospace industry: the c...

FGV Brazil

Six sigma benchmarking of process capability analysis and mapping of process parameters. Author: Jagadeesh Rajashekharaiah Journal of Operations and Supply Chain Management Vol 9, No 2 (2016) FGV's Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) Abstract Process capability analysis (PCA) is a vital step in ascertaining the quality of the output from a production process. Particularly in batch and mass production of components with specified quality characteristics, PCA helps to decide about accepting the process and later to continue with it. In this paper, the application of PCA using process capability indices is demonstrated using data from the field and benchmarked against Six Sigma as a motivation to improve to meet the global standards. Further, how the two important process parameters namely mean and the standard deviation can be monitored is illustrated with the help of what if analysis feature of Excel. Finally, the paper enables to determine the improvement efforts using simulation to act as a quick reference for decision makers. The global benchmarking in the form of Six Sigma capability of the process is expected to give valuable insight towards process improvement.

Operations Management: Six sigma benchmarking of process capability analysis...

FGV Brazil

A simulation of contract farming using agent based modeling Authors: Yuanita Handayati, Togar Mangihut Simatupang, Tomy Perdana, Manahan Siallagan Journal of Operations and Supply Chain Management Vol 9, No 2 (2016) FGV's Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) Abstract This study aims to simulate the effects of contract farming and farmer commitment to contract farming on supply chain performance by using agent based modeling as a methodology. Supply chain performance is represented by profits and service levels. The simulation results indicate that farmers should pay attention to customer requirements and plan their agricultural activities in order to fulfill these requirements. Contract farming helps farmers deal with demand and price uncertainties. We also find that farmer commitment is crucial to fulfilling contract requirements. This study contributes to this field from a conceptual as well as a practical point of view. From the conceptual point of view, our simulation results show that different levels of farmer commitment have an impact on farmer performance when implementing contract farming. From a practical point of view, the uncertainty faced by farmers and the market can be managed by implementing cultivation and harvesting scheduling, information sharing, and collective learning as ways of committing to contract farming.

Logistics and Supply Chain: A simulation of contract farming using agent base...

FGV Brazil

An integrated production, inventory, warehouse location and distribution model Author: Lokendra Kumar Devangan Journal of Operations and Supply Chain Management Vol 9, No 2 (2016) FGV's Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) Abstract: This paper proposes an integrated production and distribution planning optimization model for multiple manufacturing locations, producing multiple products with deterministic demand at multiple locations. There are multiple modes of transport from plants to demand locations and warehouses. This study presents a model which allows decision makers to optimize plant production, transport and warehouse location simultaneously to fulfill the demands at customer locations within a multi-plant, multi-product, and multi-route supply chain system when the locations of the plants are already fixed. The proposed model is solved for sample problems and tested using real data from a cement manufacturing company in India. An analysis of the results suggests that this model can be used for various strategic and tactical production and planning decisions.

Logistics and Supply Chain: An integrated production, inventory, warehouse lo...

FGV Brazil

The identification of key success factors in sustainable cold chain management: Insights from the Indian food industry Authors: Shashi ., Rajwinder Singh, Amir Shabani Journal of Operations and Supply Chain Management Vol 9, No 2 (2016) FGV's Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) Abstract Supply chain sustainability has emerged as an indispensable research agenda for the government, industry as well as non-profit orientation bodies. As a developing country, cold supply chain management in India is still in infancy. The demand pattern of food products has been dramatically changing since last few years. Nowadays, the customers are more conscious to use products for better health and highly expecting for food safety, toxic free and eco-friendly delivery of food products. However, sustainable cold supply chain has not yet received good heed throughout the world. Hence, in this paper an attempt has been made to address these important issues. A conceptual model was proposed in the consultation of practitioners and literature support to address the important issues in cold supply chain management for food companies. Therefore, in order to identify the key success factors for sustainable cold chain management, in this study a conceptual model developed. The proposed framework is then validated by an empirical research in the Indian food industry. This research has several alarming findings. Explicitly, in India i) environmental issues and social responsibility are not as important as other ‎economical supplier selection criteria, ii) among 19 food supplier selection criteria, the rank of social responsibility is 18‎, iii) low carbon emission is less important value addition trait as compare to ‎other sustainable cold chain value addition (which means in India the buyers focus more on their individual and prompt received ‎benefits rather than long ‎lasting advantages), iv) the use of life cycle analysis, renewable energy sources and passive cold chain are the least important ‎implemented sustainable cold chain practices (although this might be because of utilization complexities), v) the joint development of product is implemented at the lowest extent judging against other dynamic capacity ‎factors, vii) government usually backed the firms to adopt and implementing sustainability in their operations, but ‎training courses that will guide how to achieve sustainability are less as their requirement, and viii) business sustainability builds the trust among the government, suppliers, firm and all ‎stakeholders that build strong cold chain relationships.‎

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