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Climate change, sustainable agriculture and
               environmental information.

                              Snow Barlow
Climate Change ,sustainable agriculture
    and environmental management


                     a regional perspective




     Professor Snow Barlow ASTE, FAIAST
      Melbourne School of Land and Environment
               University of Melbourne
Climate Change is a „wicked‟ challenge
                       to regional communities

• Regional communities must move to an
  „adaptation„ phase well before the full impact
  is known or knowable
• Adaptation has to occur in an uncertain
  policy and well as biophysical environments
       – Water
       – CPRS
       – Climate change
• Adaptation is intuitively a „bottom up‟ process
  but can only occur effectively in an
  information rich environment
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(% of Water Right until 2006/7, then % of High Reliability Water Shares)        /03
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                                                                                                                               Do we smooth this ?




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                                                                                                                       Goulburn System Seasonal Allocations
The Broken River Catchment


                                                                                                                onga
                                                                                                         Yarraw annel
                                                                                                         Ma in Ch



                                Broken R              Go u
                                                             lbur
                              transmission                       n




                                                                                          Main oulburn
              Broken Ck                                              Rive




                                                                                                   nel
                                                                          r




                                                                                               Chan
                losses            losses




                                                                                               G
                                                                                          East
                                              Waranga Basin


 L Mokoan
                                                Stuart Murray Canal
evaporation
   losses
                                                                              Goulburn Weir




                 Broken R               Delivery to
                operational              irrigators
                  losses
Farms Rivers and Markets
                         Future with    Aim for FRM
               Past   climate change    contribution
                       No adaption     Adaptive future

                                                         Improved
Available
water
               ML         ML                ML           operational




                                                                         Optimisation by combining
                                                         efficiency




                                                                          operations with markets
                                                         Smarter
Farm            $          $                 $           water use
productivity                                             on farm



                                                       Better
                                                       matching of
                                                       available water
River health
                                                       to
                                                       environmental
                                                       needs
Farms Rivers and Markets –Dookie campus
Farms Plan: Structure and Linkages
 Farming                                                                Dookie site characterisation
 systems                         Farming systems that do                   and instrumentation
 analysis                           more with less: Farm
(modelling)                      systems experimentation
                                  (‘Dookie demonstrator’)




   (CAT)




              Evaluation
                                                           Farm and catchment
                                                         networks and innovation
                                                                research



                  Water resources, allocation and accounting
           Groundwater and groundwater-surface water interaction
                        Ecology and ecological impacts

           Common futures for whole-of-system performance improvement
Maintaining Dairy productivity with
                                        reduced water
Preliminary modeling outcomes of dairy productivity and profitability with 100%,50%and
      30% water allocations and changing forage systems and irrigation systems

                                                 MS kg/ha
  3000
                                                 Op Profit $/ha
  2500

  2000

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Bottom up consultation an essential and
                    ongoing part of project

• Project Steering Committee-
  – Farms liaison committee
  – Rivers liaison committee
  – Community liaison committee
• Experimental Farms phase
  – Dairy advisory group
  – Dryland/broadacre advisory group
  – Horticulture/Viticulture advisory group
A final word from Charles Darwin

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives,
       nor the most intelligent that survives.”




 “It is the one that is the most adaptable to
                   change.”
The Environment
    Institute

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Crea il tuo assistente AI con lo Stregatto (open source python framework)
 

Climate change, sustainable agriculture and environmental management: A regional perspective

  • 1. Climate change, sustainable agriculture and environmental information. Snow Barlow
  • 2. Climate Change ,sustainable agriculture and environmental management a regional perspective Professor Snow Barlow ASTE, FAIAST Melbourne School of Land and Environment University of Melbourne
  • 3. Climate Change is a „wicked‟ challenge to regional communities • Regional communities must move to an „adaptation„ phase well before the full impact is known or knowable • Adaptation has to occur in an uncertain policy and well as biophysical environments – Water – CPRS – Climate change • Adaptation is intuitively a „bottom up‟ process but can only occur effectively in an information rich environment
  • 4. 0 50 100 150 200 250 1978 /79 1979 /80 1980 /81 1981 /82 1982 /83 1983 /84 1984 /85 1985 /86 1986 /87 1987 /88 1988 /89 1989 /90 1990 /91 1991 /92 1992 /93 1993 /94 1994 /95 1995 /96 1996 /97 1997 /98 1998 /99 1999 /00 2000 /01 2001 /02 2002 (% of Water Right until 2006/7, then % of High Reliability Water Shares) /03 2003 /04 2004 /05 2005 Do we smooth this ? /06 2006 /07 2007 /08 2008 /09 Goulburn System Seasonal Allocations
  • 5. The Broken River Catchment onga Yarraw annel Ma in Ch Broken R Go u lbur transmission n Main oulburn Broken Ck Rive nel r Chan losses losses G East Waranga Basin L Mokoan Stuart Murray Canal evaporation losses Goulburn Weir Broken R Delivery to operational irrigators losses
  • 6. Farms Rivers and Markets Future with Aim for FRM Past climate change contribution No adaption Adaptive future Improved Available water ML ML ML operational Optimisation by combining efficiency operations with markets Smarter Farm $ $ $ water use productivity on farm Better matching of available water River health to environmental needs
  • 7. Farms Rivers and Markets –Dookie campus
  • 8. Farms Plan: Structure and Linkages Farming Dookie site characterisation systems Farming systems that do and instrumentation analysis more with less: Farm (modelling) systems experimentation (‘Dookie demonstrator’) (CAT) Evaluation Farm and catchment networks and innovation research Water resources, allocation and accounting Groundwater and groundwater-surface water interaction Ecology and ecological impacts Common futures for whole-of-system performance improvement
  • 9. Maintaining Dairy productivity with reduced water Preliminary modeling outcomes of dairy productivity and profitability with 100%,50%and 30% water allocations and changing forage systems and irrigation systems MS kg/ha 3000 Op Profit $/ha 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 ng op 0 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 6 16 14 20 16 17 19 20 22 23 -0 lvi cr 05 s s ca s s s s s s s hi ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow ow 20 5 ay C C 20 C C C C C C C e M ki 60 60 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 s oo 5 ow G G C C C C C C C 20 D D AR AR D D D D D D C s 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 ow 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 G C C W W W W W W G G AR D 30 PR PR 70 30 C 50 50 G D W AR W W 70 G 30 AR W 30 W
  • 10. Bottom up consultation an essential and ongoing part of project • Project Steering Committee- – Farms liaison committee – Rivers liaison committee – Community liaison committee • Experimental Farms phase – Dairy advisory group – Dryland/broadacre advisory group – Horticulture/Viticulture advisory group
  • 11. A final word from Charles Darwin “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.” “It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
  • 12. The Environment Institute