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DEC14TODEC18,2015
USBUSINESSAND
POST-COP21:ALIGNING
CLIMATETheCOP21climatesummitinParisinstilledasenseof
urgencyamongworldleadersandforgednewgoalsfor
bothclimateandenergy.Ahand-pickedgroupofleading
expertsacrosstheclimateandenergyspectrumengagedin
avirtualdialoguetoevaluatetheoutcomesofCOP21,and
determineitsimplicationsforthefutureofglobalclimate
andindustryintheU.S.
23PARTICIPANTS|118POSTS
DEC14TODEC18,2015
USBUSINESSAND
POST-COP21:ALIGNING
CLIMATETheCOP21climatesummitinParisinstilledasenseof
urgencyamongworldleadersandforgednewgoalsfor
bothclimateandenergy.Ahand-pickedgroupofleading
expertsacrosstheclimateandenergyspectrumengagedin
avirtualdialoguetoevaluatetheoutcomesofCOP21,
anddetermineitsimplicationsforthefutureofglobal
climateandindustryintheU.S.
23PARTICIPANTS|118POSTS
PARTICIPANTS
RipudamanMalhotra
Co-author:ACubicMileofOil
IndependentConsultant
Facilitator
BillBaue
CorporateSustainability
Architect
Co-Facilitator
ReneDeConing
GlobalStrategicInsightLead
Oil&GasIndustry
Co-Facilitator
RajThamotheram
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
PreventableSurprises
Co-Facilitator
AlisonWise
CleanTech&Innovation
Executive/Strategist
AndrewWinston
Author,TheBigPivot&
GreentoGold
Adviser/Speaker
AndyHoward
Founder
DidasResearch
BardiUgo
Professor,PhysicalChemistry
UniversityofFlorence
BillyGrayson
DirectorofSustainability
LibertyPropertyTrust
CharlesSecrett
SustainabilityAdvisor,Analyst
&Campaigner
EricCoreyFreed,
VicePresident,GlobalOutreach
InternationalLivingFutureInstitute
GarrattHasenstab
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
TheMountainLifeCompanies
GuillermoPastor
SeniorIndependentConsultant
Oil&GasIndustry
GuyMcPherson
ProfessorEmeritus
UniversityofArizona
HunterLovins
President
NaturalCapitalismSolutions
Thisengagementbroughttogetherthefollowingexperts:
2
PARTICIPANTS
James Bairey
Pro Bono Clean Energy
Independent Consultant
Jason Kliwinski
Founder & CEO
The Green Building Center
Julie Gorte
SVP, Sustainable Investing
Pax World
Lily Donge
Principal, Business
Renewables Center
Rocky Mountain Institute
Mark Trexler
Climate Risk Knowledge Broker
The Climatographers
Michael Dutschke
Chairman
Global Conservation Standard
Robert Bryce
Senior Fellow
Manhattan Institute for
Policy Research
Sam DeLay
Senior Program Manager,
Energy Utilization
Tennessee Valley Authority
Sanford Lewis
Strategic Counsel, Corporate
Accountability
Sanford Lewis, Attorney
Ski Milburn
Managing Member & CEO
VAIREX Air Systems
Tabaré Arroyo Currás
Global Advisor on Energy
Economics
World Wildlife Foundation
International
Thomas O. Murtha
Managing Director
Source Capital Group
This engagement brought together the following experts:
3
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
4
2
3
Responses to the COP21 agreement ranged from glowing
to skeptical, but ultimately highlighted the gap between GHG
reduction needs and pledges made.
There is no silver bullet to achieve the goals, but rather a
“cocktail” of solutions.
The private sector may be best positioned to drive these
solutions and the business case is compelling.
Because accountability is unclear and pledges are voluntary,
however, fulfillment will take courageous acts of leadership
at all levels.
4
1
The Glowing
“COP21 is a magnificent
achievement. It is more than we
had any right to expect that we
could pull off.”
– Hunter Lovins, President, Natural
Capitalism Solutions
“The significance of the signing
of the agreement can't be
understated. The signing by
nearly 200 nations shows that
the debate over climate change
is over.”
- Eric Corey Freed, VP, International
Living Future Institute
The Skeptical
“It's a start, but we're running
out of time for starts”
- Ski Milburn, Managing Member &
CEO at VAIREX air systems
“The Paris Agreement is full of
ambition. It also contains
ambiguities and oratory calls for
action, as opposed to a concrete,
enforceable path forward to
limiting climate change to 2C,
much less 1.5C.”
- Mark Trexler, Climate Risk
Knowledge Broker, The
Climatographers
THE GAP
While the COP21
Agreement set a goal of
limiting global temps to
2°C above the
preindustrialization level
with a stretch goal of
1.5°C, all the pledges
made at the conference
would amount to no
fewer than 2.7°C
warming.
KEY FINDINGS
Responses to the COP21 agreement ranged from glowing to
skeptical, but ultimately highlighted the gap between GHG
reduction needs and pledges made.
5
The target calls for reducing GHG emissions by 1,300 Gt CO2 by 2050 ; Pledged
amounts through 2025 add up to roughly 120 Gt, or less than 10%. Sure, we can
expect more pledges to be made in subsequent years, but this is where we stand.
Renewables
“Renewabledeploymentwillcontinueata
breakneckpaceandoilisn'tgoinganywhere
anytimesoon.”
–BillyGrayson,DirectorofSustainability,Liberty
PropertyTrust
Nuclear
“…theUSneedstoenactpoliciesthatwill
incubatecompaniesthataredesigningsafer
cheaperreactors.”
–RobertBryce,SeniorFellow,ManhattanInstitutefor
PolicyResearch
EnergyStorage
“Energystorageispoisedforabreakthrough.
Severalcompetingtechnologiesarepushing
storagetocapacitiesweneverthoughtpossible.”
–EricCoreyFreed,VP,InternationalLivingFuture
Institute
BiogasandBiofuels
“Biogasandbiofuelsareanuntappedandsmall
marketthatissettoexplode,giventheneedfor
decentralizedfarmingandagriculture,andthe
needtofindwaystodealwiththewaste.”
–EricCoreyFreed,VPGlobalOutreachatInternational
LivingFutureInstitute
Thereisnosilverbullettoachievethegoals,butrathera“cocktail”
ofsolutions.
2
KEYFINDINGS
“…carbongoalscouldbeachievablebutitwillbeduetoacombinationof
shutteringcoalfiredplants,energyefficiency,demandresponse,and
potentiallyleveragedelectrificationwithconsumertechnology.”
-SamDeLay,TennesseeValleyAuthority
“Therequisitescaleforchangeiscubicmileofoilequivalent”
-RipudamanMalhotra,Co-Author:CubicMileofOil
6
Theprivatesectorisbestpositionedtodrivechangetowardsthis
goalandthebusinesscaseiscompelling.
3
KEYFINDINGS
Overall,thefinancialimpactsontheUSeconomy
fromclimatechangeandUSimplementationof
COP21commitmentswillbe:
POSITIVE
6VOTES
VERYPOSITIVE
3VOTES
NEGATIVE
0VOTES
VERYNEGATIVE
0VOTES
NEUTRAL
1VOTE
“Thereisreasontoexpectthat
theroleoftheinvestment
community,atleastintheUS,is
likelytobecomemorerigorous
andimpactfulpostCOP21.”
-SanfordLewis,Environmental
Attorney
“Windmillswillgetbetter,solar
willgetbetter,batterieswillget
better,aswillfuelcells,and
hydro,andgeothermalandeven
nuclear.And[there]willbeplenty
ofmoneytobemadeonthose
improvements.”
-SkiMilburn,ManagingMember&
CEOatVAIREXairsystems
7
ESTABLISHINGA
ROBUSTCARBONTAX7VOTES
INVESTORACTION
(DIVESTMENT-PORFOLIO
DECARBONIZATION-
FORCEFULSTEWARDSHIP)
6VOTES
CREATINGREGULATION
ENCOURAGINGSWIFT
TRANSITIONFROMHIGH
CARBONOPTIONS
4VOTES
CORPORATEINNOVATION
OF2-DEGREEBUSINESS
MODELS4VOTES
ADHERENCETO
EXISTINGINDCS2VOTES
CREATINGENABLING
REGULATIONFORLOW
CARBONSOLUTIONS
2VOTES
OTHER
0VOTES
RATCHETINGUPINDCS
INADVANCEOF5-YEAR
DEADLINE5VOTES
Which3technologies/solutionsholdthegreatestpromiseformitigating/adapting
toclimatechangeanddeliveringonCOP21commitments(andbeyond)?
Becauseresponsibilityisunclearandpledgesarevoluntary,
fulfillmentwilltakecourageousactsofleadershipatalllevels.
KEYFINDINGS
4
8
“Ifweexpectrealchangewithinourtime,the
leadersofournationmust'puttheirmoney
wheretheirmouthis'andstandtogetherto
serveasabeaconofsustainabilityfortheworld
toemulate,andwhynot,thereisendlessprofitto
bemadeinthispursuitofasustainablefuture.”
–GarrattHasenstab,CEO,TheMountainLifeCompanies
“TheannouncementbyBillGatesatthestartof
COP21forincreasedR&Dinvestmentsbyprivate
andgovernmentsectorsissignificant,
particularlyfornascenttechnologiesstruggling
tocrossthe“valleyofdeath”andtransitionto
commercialization.”
–JulieGorte,SVP,SustainableInvestingatPaxWorld
Becauseresponsibilityisunclearandpledgesarevoluntary,
fulfillmentwilltakecourageousactsofleadershipatalllevels.
KEYFINDINGS
4
9
DEC14TODEC18,2015
USBUSINESSAND
POST-COP21:ALIGNING
CLIMATETheCOP21climatesummitinParisinstilledasenseof
urgencyamongworldleadersandforgednewgoalsfor
bothclimateandenergy.Ahand-pickedgroupofleading
expertsacrosstheclimateandenergyspectrumengagedin
avirtualdialoguetoevaluatetheoutcomesofCOP21,and
determineitsimplicationsforthefutureofglobalclimate
andindustryintheU.S.
23PARTICIPANTS|118POSTS
CONCLUSIONAsthisconversationandtheCOP21summitreinforced,the
technologicalcapabilities,businesscase,andperhapseven
politicalwillarealignedtorealizea<2°Cglobal
temperaturerise.
Ultimately,realizationofthesegoalshingeonachangeof
heartinpublicsentiment.This,inturn,mustbematched
byachangeinbehaviorateverylevel.Whatweneedis
nothingshortofasocialrevolution.
“…climatechangeisstillapartisanissue,usedtofueldisruptionand
confusionamongthemasses,resultingindiminishedpublic
acceptanceandslowedmomentumtowardfull-fledgedpositive
policychange.Couldthisalljustcomedowntosocialrevolution?…
Whatwouldbringforththesignificantchangeinwhichenergy
productionandGHGemissionscouldbeseenthroughthelensesof
economicjusticeandsocialbenefitasopposedtothecurrent
paradigm?Howcanwedrivethischange?”
-GarrattHasenstab,CEOatTheMountainLifeCompanies

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