Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global Impact
Social Protection: At the Intersection of Transnational Ideas and Domestic Politics
1. Social protection: at the intersection of
transnational ideas and domestic
politics
Tom Lavers and Sam Hickey
Global Development Institute (GDI), University of Manchester
10th April 2017
2. Case selection
Coverage of main social assistance
programme
Coverage of health
insurance (population)
Ethiopia 8% (popn)
28% (nat. poverty line)
7%
Kenya 3% (popn)
7% (nat. poverty line)
11%
Rwanda 6% (popn)
13% (nat. poverty line)
75%
Uganda 0.3% (popn)
2% (nat. poverty line)
2%
Zambia 5% (popn)
9% (nat. poverty line)
1%
3. Social assistance:
Ethiopia and Rwanda
• Commitment to rapid socioeconomic progress
• Perceived existential crises
– Food / distributional crisis in Ethiopia
– Poverty and inequality in Rwanda
• ‘Social protection’
– Donor ideas and finance
– Integrated into existing strategies
– Strong ‘productivist’ orientation
4. • Stronger donor-driven agenda
• Initial resistance from key political
elites
• Bottom-up pressures for expansion
of pilot projects, incl elections
• Tendency to prioritise visibility
• Standalone programmes
Social assistance:
Kenya, Uganda, Zambia
5. • Strength of potential opponents key barrier
– Private sector, employers, trade unions, medical
associations, MoF
• In tension with past electoral giveaways –
removal of user fees (Uganda)
• Poor fit with expectations of a patronage-
based political system (Kenya)
• Absence of strong donor coalition in favour
Health insurance:
Kenya, Uganda, Zambia
6. • Ideas
– Commitment to rapid development
– Necessity of ‘productivist’ social policy
– Self-reliance – national and individual
• Political settlement dynamics
– Long-term vision
– Opponents are politically weak
– ‘Infrastructural power’ key to high enrolment rates
Health insurance:
Ethiopia and Rwanda
7. • Donors matter, but are not enough
• Elections haven’t (yet) generated
strong commitment to SP
• Political settlement dynamics key
• ‘Ideational fit’ vital determinate of
policy adoption
Conclusions
8. All papers available at: http://www.effective-states.org/publications/
Ethiopia
• Tom Lavers (2016). ‘Social protection in an aspiring ‘developmental state’: The political
drivers of community-based health insurance in Ethiopia‘, ESID Working Paper 71.
• Tom Lavers (2016). ‘Social protection in an aspiring ‘developmental state’: The political
drivers of Ethiopia’s PSNP‘, ESID Working Paper 73.
Kenya
• Fredrick Wanyama and Anna McCord (forthcoming) ‘The politics of scaling up social
protection in Kenya’, ESID Working Paper.
Rwanda
• Tom Lavers (2016). ‘Understanding elite commitment to social protection: Rwanda’s
Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme‘, ESID Working Paper 68.
• Benjamin Chemouni (2016). ‘The political path to universal health coverage: Elite
commitment to community-based health insurance in Rwanda‘, ESID Working Paper 72.
Uganda
• Sam Hickey and Badru Bukenya (2016). ‘The politics of promoting social cash transfers in
Uganda‘, ESID Working Paper 69.
Zambia
• Kate Pruce and Sam Hickey (2017). ‘The politics of promoting social protection in
Zambia‘. ESID Working Paper 75.
Editor's Notes
Rise of SP since late 1990s – culminating in ILO recommendation 202, SDGs, policy priorities by all main donors
But huge variation in the extent to which countries have pursued SP
Question is why?
Two policies that have been widely promoted – cash transfers / PW and health insurance
Both have – to some degree – been promoted by transnational actors
Slightly out of date – Ethiopia SA now 10%, HI around 20%
Very different PS – Ethiopia and Rwanda vs Kenya, Uganda, Zambia
