1. ROADMAP
2050
A
prac/cal
guide
to
a
prosperous,
low-­‐carbon
Europe
Tom
Brookes
NESC
EPA
Ireland,
Dublin,
November
14
2012
PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate Foundation is strictly prohibited

2. Project Set-Up: organisations involved

3. THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS ANALYSED ARE
SUSTAINABLE, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

4. AT LEAST 80% CO2
EMISSION REDUCTION
1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve
2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline
3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)
SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis

5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2050
(EU-27 + Norway & Switzerland)

6. RES DIVERSITY CONTRIBUTES TO CONSISTENT SUPPLY

7. INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS
UK
+
UK
+
Ireland
Ireland

8. AN EU APPROACH REQUIRES A THIRD LESS RESERVE CAPACITY
Maximal reserve requirement1, GW
Region
80%
RES
60%
RES
UK
&
Ireland
France
Iberia
Nordic
Benelux
&
Germany
Central-­‐Europe
Poland
&
Baltic
South
East
Europe
Italy
&
Malta
Total
EU27
281
191
Benefit
of
reserve
sharing
Total
with
reserve
sharing
183
125
between
regions
-­‐35%
-­‐35%
8
8

9. CURTAILMENT IS KEPT LOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UP
CAPACITY
2050, GW
Transmission
&
generation
capacity
requirements
RES
curtail-­‐
Pathways
DR,
%
Transmission
Back-­‐up
and
balancing
ment1,
%
Baseline
0
2
Requirements
on
top
of
the
baseline
80%
RES
0
3
10%
CCS
10%
nuclear
20
2
60%
RES
0
2
20%
CCS
20%
nuclear
20
1
9
9

10. ANNUAL CAPEX DEVELOPMENT

11. COST OF ELECTRICITY

12. Summing Up

13. Commission Work Programme 2013
The European Commission has
announced a comprehensive 2030
framework for energy and climate
policies:
• To meet 80-95% GHG emission
reduction objective in 2050
compared to 1990
• To foster long term
competitiveness, security of
supply and sustainability
• To provide a long-term
perspective for investments until
2030.