By Lew Fulton, International Energy Agency (Paris, France)

1. Lew Fulton International Energy Agency, Paris www.iea.org Better Air Quality Conference 12 November, Bangkok Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?

3. IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Baseline: Liquid Fuels to 2050

4. IEA ETP 2008 Baseline Transport Energy Demand Projection About a tripling world-wide, 2005-2050

5. IEA ETP 2008 - Asia Baseline Transport Energy Use Projection About an 8-fold increase, 2005-2050

6. IEA ETP 2008 - Asia Baseline Transport Energy Demand Projection By Mode

7. ETP vehicle ownership projections Cars per 1000 as a function of GDP/cap Personal income, thousand real USD (using PPPs) per capita *Based on a scenario where ownership/income relationships in non-OECD countries track those in OECD countries; Income growth based on OECD/WB projections

8. Ownership close-up for Asia

9. ETP vehicle ownership projections Total car stocks by region

11. 2. IPCC: we need a global 50% CO2 cut by 2050 IEA ETP 2008: Where CO2 reductions come from

12. ETP Scenarios: Transport CO2 Emissions

16. Resulting LDV (Car, SUV) Fuel Use in Asian Regions

19. IEA ETP 2008: New LDV Fuel Economy

22. LDV Technology Costs ETP: Net cost per tonne CO2 Opt: optimistic, pes; pessimistic; based on $60/bbl oil and undiscounted vehicle and fuel costs

23. ETP: Cumulative Additional Investment and Fuel Savimgs

24. Biofuels Use in BLUE Map 26% of Transport Fuel Use in 2050

25. Biofuels Land Use in Blue Perhaps about 150 million hectares worldwide Based on yields for different feedstocks reported in literature; assumes 100% from agricultural/forest crops; other sources like residues would reduce land requirement.