1. 2012 Regional
Economic Outlook
May 2012

2. Disclaimer
The views expressed here are
the presenter's and not
necessarily those of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or
the Federal Reserve System.
minneapolisfed.org

3. minneapolisfed.org

4. Agenda
 Ninth District Economy
– Outlook
• Surveys
• Models
– Sector Analysis
• Agriculture
• Manufacturing
• Home building

5. District 9
Cleveland

6. Ninth District Economy:
Growth in 2012
• Business leaders remain optimistic
• Employment up, modest unemployment rate reductions
• Small wage and price increases
• Agriculture sector strong & manufacturing upbeat
• Slow home building sector

7. Business leaders remain optimistic
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% Optimism
50%
40% Pessimism
30%
20%
10%
0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011

8. Employment expected to expand
across the district
6.0
5.0
4.0
2011
3.0
2012
2.0
1.0
0.0
MN MT ND SD WI UP
Nonfarm employment forecast
Percent change from a year earlier – 4th quarter

9. Business leaders expect increased
employment at their companies
Retail
Manufacturing
2011
Services Outlook
DISTRICT 2012
Outlook
Construction
Agriculture
0 20 40 60 80 100
Diffusion index*
*Index number above 50 indicates expansion.
Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

10. Unemployment rates will decrease modestly
10
9
8
7
6 2011
5
4
2012
3
2
1
0
MN MT ND SD WI UP
Unemployment rate – 4th quarter

11. Business leaders anticipate
small wage increases
Above 5%
4% to 5% 2011
Outlook
2012
2% to 3% Outlook
0% to 1%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Percent of respondents

12. Business leaders foresee some price increases
Construction
Manufacturing
Services 2011
Outlook
DISTRICT
2012
Outlook
Retail
Agriculture
0 20 40 60 80 100
Diffusion index*
*Index number above 50 indicates expansion.
Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

13. Personal income growth
expected to increase
7
6
5
4
3 2011
2
1 2012
0
-1
-2
-3
MN MT ND* SD WI
Percent change from a year earlier – 4th quarter
*Forecast for North Dakota has a wide 70 percent confidence interval.

15. Manufacturing survey reveals growth in 2011;
faster growth expected in 2012
Production level
2011
Profits Actual
2012
Employment
Outlook
Investment
0 20 40 60 80 100
Diffusion index*
*Index number above 50 indicates expansion.
Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

16. However, manufacturing respondents to
business poll expect more modest growth in
2012
Sales
2011
Outlook
Employment
2012
Outlook
Investment in plant and
equipment
0 20 40 60 80 100
Diffusion index*
*Index number above 50 indicates expansion.
Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

18. Source: Lender Processing Services (LPS)

19. Delinquent Payment: 90+ PD, Foreclosure
Source: Lender Processing Services (LPS)

20. Business leaders expect slower home building
MT
UP of MI
2011
Greater MN Outlook
Western WI
2012
MPLS MSA Outlook
SD
ND
0 20 40 60 80 100
Diffusion index*
*Index number above 50 indicates expansion.
Index number below 50 indicates contraction.

25. Ninth District Economy:
Growth in 2012
• Business leaders remain optimistic
• Employment up, modest unemployment rate reductions
• Small wage and price increases
• Agriculture sector strong & manufacturing upbeat
• Slow home building sector

26. Questions?