SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 27
Current State of the Wireless Industry
Presentation to Alabama Wireless Association
Jennifer Fritzsche, Managing Director – Wells Fargo Securities
(312) 920-3548 / jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
February 2016
All estimates / forecasts are as of 2/19/2016 unless otherwise specified.
Please see page 27 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.
As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
Contents
SECTION I: Who Am I And Why Am I Here?
SECTION II: Wireless Industry At A Quick Glance
SECTION III: 5 Key Themes In Telecom
SECTION IV: An In Depth Look At Strategies Of Big 4 Wireless Players
SECTION V: 3 Trends To Watch For In 2016 & Beyond
2
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
SECTION I:
Who Am I & Why I Am Here?
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
4
Jennifer Fritzsche – Who is She & Why Is She Here!?
• Sell-side Analyst who has followed wireless industry in a senior role since 1997. I have
seen the good, bad and ugly! Somehow survived 4 bank mergers and lived (barely)
through the financial crisis of 2008. All the better for it (but it did not seem like it
during that time!)
• Zero experience at telecom companies. Joined Kemper Securities right out of business
school in 1995 and was lucky enough to be a junior associate analyst for two very smart
telecom analysts. Was lucky to learn from some of the very best.
• Chicago native. The only sell-side telecom analyst who actually lives in Chicago. Also
one of the only female telecom analysts. Live in Northern suburbs with my husband and
three children. Also a hockey mom (although in many ways I don’t fit that stereotype!)!
• Follow 23 companies (wireless carriers, towers, fiber players, data centers, RLECs).
Very strong relationships with my companies (“my children” as I call them). My client
base is portfolio managers focused on the telecom space.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
SECTION II:
Wireless Industry At A Quick Glance
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
6
Snapshot View of Wireless Industry
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
EstimatedSubscribers(inMillions)
Estimated Subscribers
Estimated Subscribers
Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey estimates, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
TotalServiceRevenues(inBillions)
Service Revenues
Service Revenues
Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
NumberofCellSites
Cell Sites
Number of Cell Sites
Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
TotalCapex(inBillions)
Cumulative Capital Investment
Cumulative Capital Investment
Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
7
Voice Is An App – Data is The Here and Now
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
SECTION III:
5 Key Themes in Telecom
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
9
Key Themes in Telecom
THEME 1: Spectrum = Life Blood of Wireless Network
 Spectrum is critical to carriers in building out wireless networks and valuable due to its scarcity and
limited capacity
 The FCC has announced 2 major spectrum auctions, the first notable auctions since 2008
 65 MHz AWS-3 spectrum auction concluded in January 2015 and generated $44.9B in gross bids
 Broadcast (incentive) auction expected in March 2016 (600MHz)
 The 4 primary drivers of spectrum value are: frequency / propagation characteristics, location, channel
size and inclusion in global standards
 Prices of spectrum (in auctions and secondary markets) have continued to increase in past few years
given the scarcity of this asset.
So in short, who has what?
 VZ: In our view, substantial holdings of low 700MHz (C Block) and 850MHz, plus its purchase of
AWS spectrum from a cable consortium . Won 181 licenses for a total of $10.4B in AWS-3 auction.
 T: Good position, in our view, with 700MHz and 850MHz holdings, and has been adding AWS and 2.1
GHz for network capacity. Spent $18.2B in AWS-3 auction (mostly in J block) and committed $9B
(with conditions) in the broadcast auction.
 S: Substantial capacity in metro areas, in our view, with 2.5GHz spectrum (multiple 20x20 channels).
S also has 1900 and 800 MHz spectrum. Did not participate in AWS-3 auction and will also not
participate in broadcast auction.
 TMUS: Benefits from simplicity of contiguous spectrum bands (AWS, PCS, 700MHz), which are less
fragmented than the spectrum holdings of its competitors. Spent $1.8B in AWS-3 auction and we
expect them to be active in broadcast auction, with a goal to have nationwide coverage of low-band.
Bought a bunch of 700MHz A block from VZ and just bought a bunch more.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
10
Key Themes in Telecom
THEME 2: Fiber is Major Focus for Carriers
 Due to the expanding appetite for bandwidth, fiber networks have seen numerous changes in response to
accelerated traffic growth (global IP traffic expected to grow 3x through 2019).
 Ethernet: Migration of enterprise from legacy TDM/SONET to Ethernet, which provides higher speeds and
lower cost per bit
 Fiber-to-the-Tower: The deployment and densification of LTE networks to meet bandwidth demand have
accelerated fiber build-outs for wireless backhaul
 Dark Fiber: With longer contracts, higher margins and lower churn than lit fiber, dark fiber is favored by
many carriers as it provides scalable bandwidth and flexibility for the lessee
 Metro Fiber: Provides high margin on-net revenue for carriers and better control over network performance
 The competitive landscape continues to evolve, with consolidation of fiber assets such as LVLT/TWTC and
Fibertech/Lightower, enhanced competition for fiber-to-the-home between the incumbents and new entrants
like Google, and M&A with tower assets (CCI/Sunesys) and data centers (ZAYO/Latisys)
Fiber Statistics by Carrier
Carrier
Fiber Route
Miles
Metro Route
Miles
On-Net
Buildings
Metro
Markets
LTM Revenue
($MM)
EBITDA
($MM) Margin
AT&T
1
1,014,000 N/A 20,000 N/A 57,549 15,611 27.1%
Verizon
1
800,000 N/A 10,000 N/A 38,028 8,846 23.3%
CenturyLink 250,000 N/A N/A N/A 17,822 6,814 38.2%
Level 3 207,000 64,000 40,000 350 8,204 2,555 31.1%
Time Warner Cable 150,000 N/A 75,000 31 N/A N/A N/A
Comcast 141,000 N/A N/A 26 N/A N/A N/A
Windstream 118,000 N/A N/A N/A 5,706 1,188 20.8%
Zayo Group 85,500 N/A 18,000 320 1,347 783 58.1%
Frontier 78,838 N/A 6,300 N/A 5,210 2,173 41.7%
Charter 65,000 N/A 13,800 N/A 9,439 3,297 34.9%
Cogent 59,000 27200 2,191 190 388 130 33.4%
Lightower 30,000 N/A 15,000 N/A N/AN/A N/A N/A
1
Wireline businesses only
Source: Company reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
11
Key Themes in Telecom
THEME 3: Wireless – The Changing Pricing Landscape
 Industry moving toward Equipment Installment Plans (EIP), which shifts service revenue toward equipment
revenue and benefit margins as equipment subsidies are eliminated
 Recent trend at Sprint and TMUS toward phone leasing in which the Company capitalizes the phones on the
balance sheet and records depreciation over the phone’s life
Overview of Wireless Carriers
 T: Aggressively promoted its EIP (Next) and shared data plans (Mobile Share Value) in 2014 and now has ~46%
of postpaid smartphone base on Next and ~70% on non-subsidy plans.
 VZ: Offered its own EIP in response to TMUS and T and has now eliminated subsidized plans; Usually relies on
network quality to attract and maintain subs, although has become more aggressive with pricing
 S: First carrier to offer leasing plans and continues to be aggressive with pricing and promotions to attract
subscribers
 TMUS: Shook up wireless industry in 2013 with Value plans and EIP program; continues to be active with
promotions, leading the industry in postpaid handset net adds for 7 of the past 8 quarters
Current Single-Line Pricing Plans by Carrier*
JUMP On-
Demand
iPhone
Forever EasyPay Subsidized
Subsidized
(2-yr)
Terms 18-m lease 22-m lease 24-m EIP 2-yr contract 2-yr contract
Upgrade Options 3/year 1/year
After 2-year
contract
Upgrade Cost $0 $0 N/A
Upfront Phone Payment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $200 $0 $0 $200 $0 $0
Monthly Service Fee $70 $70 $80 $70 $70 $70 $75 $115 $140 $80 $100
Monthly Device Fee $20 $27 $27 $22 $27 $0 $27 $27 0 $27 $27
Monthly Data Cap 5GB 5GB Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited 5GB 15GB 15GB 6GB 12GB
Total Monthly Cost $90 $97 $107 $92 $97 $70 $102 $142 $140 $107 $127
Total 24 Month Cost $2,160 $2,330 $2,570 $2,208 $2,330 $1,880 $2,450 $3,410 $3,560 $2,570 $3,050
*Excludes sales tax and certain promotions; Prices as of October 2015
Source: Company websites and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Upgrade after 18
installment payments
24-m EIP
Next (24-months)
$0
Installment Plan
24-m EIP
Upgrade when 50% of
device paid off
$0
Upgrade when 50% of
device paid off
24-m EIP
$10/month $10/month
1/year
T-Mobile AT&T VerizonSprint
Simple Choice - Single
Line
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
12
Key Themes in Telecom
THEME 4: Industry Regulation Remains Major Influence
 FCC has signalled that it favours “organic” wireless growth over consolidation
 Sprint halted its pursuit of a merger with T-Mobile given low likelihood of regulators approving the deal
 FCC has issued proposal that would prevent joint ventures, such as one proposed by T-Mobile and Sprint,
from bidding in the next spectrum auction, which it believes would suppress competition, particularly among
small businesses
 Uncertainty surrounds the timing of the spectrum incentive auction and how much spectrum will be eligible
for reallocation to wireless providers
 The debate over “net neutrality” and the Open Internet has received considerable public scrutiny; Questions
remain surrounding:
 Should content companies be allowed to pay broadband providers for prioritized delivery of their content?
 The FCC’s recent Open Internet Order classifies wireless and wireline broadband under Title II, although
uncertainty will likely continue given the litigation challenging the FCC’s authority
 Can forbearance from rate regulation be struck down by a future administration?
 Other key issues to watch for include an extension of bonus depreciation and reforms to the Universal Service
Fund (USF) and Intercarrier Compensation (ICC) systems
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
13
Key Themes in Telecom
THEME 5: Trend Toward IT Outsourcing Should Benefit Data Centers and Fiber Players
 Global IP traffic is forecasted to grow 23% annually through 2019, which should result in a need for improved IT
infrastructure
 Only 20-25% of global server deployments are outsourced to 3rd
party facilities
 Growth in network bandwidth should drive continued outsourcing to carrier-neutral data centers
 Fiber-based CLECs should see increased demand for connecting these data centers
 Rapid adoption of cloud/managed hosting business models should benefit latency-sensitive colocation and
interconnection-focused data centers, as cloud providers increasingly need a presence in edge facilities
Global IPTraffic Forecast (PB/Month)
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Managed IP Fixed Internet
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia Pacific Middle East/Africa LatAm
Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe North America
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index
Global Data CenterTraffic Forecast (ZB/Year)
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
SECTION IV:
An In Depth Look At Strategies Of Big 4
Wireless Players
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
15
AT&T - (T)
Wireless Strategy
 DirecTV (DTV) acquisition driven by content savings, cross-selling opportunity and FCF accretion
 Mobile Share Value and Next plans have helped lower churn and gain sub share
 In 2015 seemed willing to cede handset share – did not match VZ’s price point of $80 / 10GB of data.
Market is rewarding it for beating on margin and toeing line on price.
 At the cusp of important changes on wireless side – video going to be major component here, especially
with DTV in the mix, in our view.
 Seemed to slow wireless build and focus more on pushing fiber into the ground (GigaPower). In 2015,
the mix of wireline and wireless capx was more equal than in the past (historically wireless was higher).
Believe they are focused on spending on wireline infrastructure in an effort to support the anticipated
wireless data “tsunami” that is on the come with video entering the fold.
 Open questions remain about how mix shift of capex impacts the towers industry.
 AT&T Next is here to stay. Only option for consumers buying T service in indirect retailers and we
believe this will be where it will go in direct strategy. See next page.
 Banking more on spectrum than capx. AT&T spent $18B (the highest bidder) in the AWS-3 auction.
Never met a spectrum deal it did not seem to like (i.e. Aloha Wireless, Atlantic Cellular, LEAP).
 Mexico (through the recent acquisitions of Nextel International’s Mexican assets and Iusacell) is part of
the view to make a 400MM POP North American wireless footprint.
 Would expect to hear more on a video Over the Top (OTT) strategy. T views the critical bundle as
“Wireless, Broadband and Video.” With DTV now closed – it should begin to connect these dots.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
16
Sprint Corp. (S)
Wireless Strategy:
 Spectrum value is very deep, with its significant holdings of 2.5GHz spectrum – has more spectrum
than any of the big 4 carriers. Big empty airplane!
 Big checkbook behind Sprint is Softbank. Softbank CEO (Masa Son) is in the weeds and seems
myopically focused on turning it around.
 CEO Marcelo Claure’s focus on new pricing plans and promotions should help bring gross adds back to
Sprint. Saw real turn in FQ2 and FQ3 2015 where it realized positive handset adds (first time in a
LONG time).
 Network has always been an issue for Sprint….but it is FINALLY getting better. Root Metrics
recognition has improved by 6x in 2H15 vs. 1H15. Small cells are a major part of the forward looking
strategy, though actual network strategy remains a mystery. Most are wondering, is the US like Japan?
 Actual network strategy remains a mystery. Similar to T, what is impact on towers industry?
 Prioritizing expense improvements in areas like roaming expense, procurement, distribution, backhaul
and handset costs.
 Saw record low postpay churn (1.54%) in FQ2 2015 – decrease in both voluntary and involuntary
churn.
 Damaged Brand, in our view – takes a long time to repair.
 Radio Shack stores (~1,400) are now online. Distribution key focus for Sprint.
 Should have multiple carrier aggregation chipsets soon, which would allow Sprint to access multiple 20
MHz channels
 In our view, the challenge for Sprint is real confusion as to what it stands for in the market place.
 Expect leasing to be a major part of the strategy. The ownership of Brightstar (by Softbank) helps with
this strategy, in our view. We believe the formation of Mobile Leasing Solutions, LLC (MLS) is a
differentiator, and unique to Sprint given the partnerships backing it.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
17
T-Mobile US, Inc. - (TMUS)
Wireless Strategy:
 TMUS has had a renaissance since getting the iPhone in April 2013 and successfully embraced social
media platform to build the brand. The TMUS user is frugal – but cool at the same time!
 Hit and identified all the many “pain points” of the US wireless consumer. The Southwest Airlines of
the wireless industry!
 Clear leader in postpay subs. But we still question the quality of the subs they are getting. A look into
the three other national carriers’ churn rates does not make sense.
 Un-carrier program has driven subs growth, with ARPU stabilization has followed.
 Significant strides with network since completion of MetroPCS acquisition (completed May 2013) ,
including nationwide launch of VoLTE, ongoing progress toward MetroPCS spectrum re-farming, and
vast improvements in network performance
 Largest amount of prepay subs of the Big 4 (16MM+)
 Like Sprint, lack coverage in rural America – however they have been adding this with their A block
spectrum and opening retail stores there. This is good for regional players (like US Cellular) and
means they will have to be very active in the upcoming broadcast spectrum auction (600MHz), in our
view. Our channel checks show some network congestion as the average TMUS smartphone customer
is using 2x-3x the data as that of T or VZ.
 If industry is turning to video and content – they lack relationships, in our view.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
18
Verizon - (VZ)
Wireless Strategy
 Strong overall wireless network quality, in our view; focused on densification of LTE in metro footprint.
 Spent less on spectrum than closest peer (AT&T) in recent spectrum auction. Shifting to capx driven
model (with large emphasis on small cells).
 Like T, we believe it’s at the cusp of important changes on wireless side with video being the heart of
the offering. Plans to introduce an OTT (Over the Top) mobile / video bundle in “late summer.” Has
already signed some important OTT deals with content players (including ESPN). We believe this will
be three pillar strategy: 1) premium content, 2) pay per view and 3) advertising.
 AOL acquisition and its full “stack” capabilities should help advertising component of VZ’s OTT model.
 VZ went to the Equipment Installment Plans (EIP) kicking and screaming. However, now seem to be
pushing its EIP plan in a bigger way. EIP (which used to be called EDGE) accounted for 68% of Q4
post-pay subs vs. 58% in Q3. Hard part for VZ is this runway is still long only 16% of have converted
vs. 37% of AT&T’s smartphone base on Next.
 On 8/13 moved to an all EIP plan (for all new gross adds) and simplified price structure in easier to
understand way. We believe this will be well received.
 In 2015, seemedto be “protecting base” mode – leading on $80 for 10 GB. $20 below its closest peer
(AT&T) .
 VZ seems to be more in defensive mode of late. Stock was punished in Q2’15 because of this strategy as
it had to lower revenue outlook by 100 basis points.
 When you are on top it is hard to stay there!
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
SECTION V:
3 Trends to Watch for in 2016 & Beyond
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
20
THREE TRENDS TO WATCH FOR IN 2016 & BEYOND
• 1) Expect to Visit the Cemetery of the “Unlimited” Plans….Days are
Numbered
– Expect TMUS and Sprint to sunset their unlimited plans very soon.
– Unlimited plans = Dumb Pipes, in our view. AT&T and Verizon learned this. Others likely will too –
especially as usage continues to grow at such an exponential rate.
– In our view, carriers need to move to a metered pricing plan so they can participate in this usage
growth.
– This would allow the wireless model to shift from a subscriber driven one to an ARPA (Average
Revenue Per Account) one. This is the shift carriers need to make (given the wireless industry is over
100% penetration) in order to realize further margin expansion, in our opinion.
• 2) Spectrum, Spectrum, Spectrum
– Watch the broadcast auction!
– We believe there will be very little secondary market transactions before the quiet period begins for the
broadcast auction (this quiet period started in January, 2016).
– After completion of the broadcast auction (which we expect to last , 6+ months)– then expect a flutter
of secondary market deals (trades, M&A, spectrum swaps, etc).
• 3) Video, Video, Video
– We expect AT&T and VZ to be pushing video hard through their respective OTT plans.
– AT&T recently said video +60% of traffic running over T's global network, and nearing 70%.
– Question if it is too little too late for Sprint and T-Mobile in this regard.
– Does the carrier who owns wireline assets (like T and VZ) give them an inherent advantage in this
regard?
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
SECTION VI:
OK – I am Here to Talk To Tower
Owners….So - How Does Wall Street
View the Tower Industry?
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
22
Tower Model Snapshot
Source: Wells Fargo Securities Estimates
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
23
What Investors USED TO Say About Tower Industry
• Best business EVER….wish I thought of this!
• The last bill carriers won’t pay is the tower bill.
• Data is growing like a weed more cell sites will always
be needed because of the lack of spectrum.
• Tower companies always will have pricing power
• Small cells are next leg of growth for towers
• International is a good thing for tower companies
because they will follow the US lead.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
24
What Investors NOW Say About Tower Industry
• Towers are business with decelerating growth…good days
are behind it!
• Carriers are pushing back hard & towers have less pricing
power
– Sprint – Re/Code Article and, more alarmingly, AT&T has been on “rant” against the
tower model talking about tilting cell sites & bounty hunters (No…I am not joking!)
• Data is growing like a weed – yes…but there are new ways to
handle it…move the intelligence above the network (SDN)
• Small cells are next leg of growth for wireless spending – but
fiber cos. (not the towers) hold keys to the kingdom.
• International has been a big-time headache for tower
companies due to FX…..those with exposure to Brazil
(American Tower & SBA) feeling most pain.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
25
Bottom Line View on Towers from This (Crazy or Smart?) Analyst….
• Sentiment on sector has definitely shifted more negative.
• BUT we still think towers have much leverage against carriers…..
• Need evidence? Just look at the Cisco Visual Networking Index report (dated: 2/3/16). Many stats stand out
which should allow you all to sleep well at night. Some include:
– Smart mobile devices and connections are projected to represent 72% of total mobile devices and connections by
2020 -- up from 36% in 2015.
– Globally, smart devices represented 36% of the total mobile devices and connections in 2015; they accounted
for 89% of the mobile data traffic
– Average smartphone usage grew 43% in 2015. The average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2015 was 929
MB per month, up from 648 MB per month in 2014.
– In 2015, the number of mobile-connected tablets increased 1.3-fold to 133MM, and each tablet generated 2.8x
more traffic than the average smartphone. In 2015, mobile data traffic per tablet was 2.6GB per month,
compared to 929 MB per month per smartphone.
• All this said - there is indeed a Game of Chicken being seen between carriers & tower cos…no question!
Sprint is serious about pursuing a new architecture. But my guess is bigger worry for all of you – is AT&T.
AT&T knows there is a large pool of tower developers, smaller tower coos etc. Seems to want to try to
leverage its options and they know these companies desperately want AT&T business. We don’t expect AT&T
to run back into tower companies arms quickly. They should but it may take some more time. Near term focus
is on pushing wired / fiber connection in ground.
• But – on good news side….Verizon & T-Mobile should continue to be your friend – not foe!
BOTTOM LINE: Longer term there are MANY catalysts for this sector (more spectrum needs to be
deployed, lots of naked spectrum not yet build, FirstNet, etc). But near term you could still see some
sluggishness in carrier spending as they navigate their capital needs and overall network strategies.
Carriers are under pressure in their own models (pricing, spectrum costs, etc.) so every penny spent on
capital is being examined in a much more serious way!
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
26
Disclosures
To view price charts for all companies rated in this document, please go to https://www.wellsfargo.com/research or write to
7 Saint Paul Street, 1st Floor, R1230-011, Baltimore, MD 21202
ATTN: Research Publications
Additional Information Available Upon Request
I certify that:
1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and
2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the
firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue.
STOCK RATING
1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months.
BUY
2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12
months. HOLD
3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL
SECTOR RATING
O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
VOLATILITY RATING
V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects
significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading.
As of: February 19, 2016
44% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 38% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies.
54% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 30% of its Equity Research Market Perform-rated companies.
2% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underperform.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 16% of its Equity Research Underperform-rated companies.
Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548
jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com
Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797
caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com
Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386
eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com
Important Disclosure for International Clients
EEA – The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in
the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“the Act”), the content of this report has been approved by
WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made
under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be
available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients.
Australia – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is exempt from the requirements to hold an Australian financial services license in respect of the financial services it provides to
wholesale clients in Australia. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is regulated under U.S. laws which differ from Australian laws. Any offer or documentation provided to Australian
recipients by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC in the course of providing the financial services will be prepared in accordance with the laws of the United States and not Australian
laws.
Canada – This report is distributed in Canada by Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a registered investment dealer in Canada and member of the Investment Industry
Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts may participate in company
events such as site visits but are generally prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the subject companies for associated expenses unless pre-authorized by
members of Research Management.
Hong Kong – This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited (“WFSAL”), a Hong Kong incorporated investment firm licensed
and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“the SFC”) to carry on types 1, 4, 6 and 9 regulated activities (as defined in the Securities and Futures
Ordinance (Cap. 571 of The Laws of Hong Kong), “the SFO”). This report is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, any person other than professional investors (as
defined in the SFO). Any securities and related financial instruments described herein are not intended for sale, nor will be sold, to any person other than professional
investors (as defined in the SFO). The author or authors of this report is or are not licensed by the SFC. Professional investors who receive this report should direct any
queries regarding its contents to Mark Jones at WFSAL (email: wfsalresearch@wellsfargo.com ).
Japan – This report is distributed in Japan by Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co., Ltd, registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau to conduct broking and dealing of type
1 and type 2 financial instruments and agency or intermediary service for entry into investment advisory or discretionary investment contracts. This report is intended for
distribution only to professional investors (Tokutei Toushika) and is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, ordinary customers (Ippan Toushika).
The ratings stated on the document are not provided by rating agencies registered with the Financial Services Agency of Japan (JFSA) but by group companies of JFSA-
registered rating agencies. These group companies may include Moody’s Investors Services Inc., Standard & Poor’s Rating Services and/or Fitch Ratings. Any decisions to
invest in securities or transactions should be made after reviewing policies and methodologies used for assigning credit ratings and assumptions, significance and limitations of
the credit ratings stated on the respective rating agencies’ websites.
About Wells Fargo Securities
Wells Fargo Securities is the trade name for the capital markets and investment banking services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries, including but not limited to
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of NYSE, FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells
Fargo Prime Services, LLC, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a member of IIROC and CIPF, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. and Wells
Fargo Securities International Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in this report. Interested
parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that provided this report to them, if they desire further information. The information in this report
has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, to be reliable, but Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not represent that this information is
accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, at this time, and are subject to change without notice. For the purposes of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority's rules, this report constitutes
impartial investment research. Each of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and
Wells Fargo Securities International Limited is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks. Copyright © 2016
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
27
SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Case Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn Red
Case Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn RedCase Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn Red
Case Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn RedCA Technologies
 
Verizon Ppt International Marketing
Verizon Ppt International MarketingVerizon Ppt International Marketing
Verizon Ppt International Marketingkhafajy
 
Verizon Communications Inc, Industry External Analysis
Verizon Communications Inc, Industry External AnalysisVerizon Communications Inc, Industry External Analysis
Verizon Communications Inc, Industry External AnalysisMaximilian Mirra
 
The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...
The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...
The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...LeeSam111
 
Telecom Global Market Report 2018
Telecom Global Market Report 2018Telecom Global Market Report 2018
Telecom Global Market Report 2018SainathMuntha1
 
Analyzing Business Models For Network Sharing Success
Analyzing Business Models For Network Sharing SuccessAnalyzing Business Models For Network Sharing Success
Analyzing Business Models For Network Sharing SuccessDr. Kim (Kyllesbech Larsen)
 
Spectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 sz
Spectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 szSpectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 sz
Spectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 szColeago Consulting
 
Verizon wireless company
Verizon wireless companyVerizon wireless company
Verizon wireless companycchagnon09
 
Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003
Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003
Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003zuikizen
 
Final hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier release
Final   hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier releaseFinal   hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier release
Final hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier releasehmhollingsworth
 
World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)
World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)
World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
 
Infrastructure sharing in bangladesh bottlenecks and way forward
Infrastructure sharing in bangladesh   bottlenecks and way forwardInfrastructure sharing in bangladesh   bottlenecks and way forward
Infrastructure sharing in bangladesh bottlenecks and way forwardAbu Saeed Khan
 
ATT vs. Verizon
ATT vs. VerizonATT vs. Verizon
ATT vs. VerizonBCronin2
 
Comcast Financial Statement Analysis
Comcast Financial Statement AnalysisComcast Financial Statement Analysis
Comcast Financial Statement AnalysisAyan Halder
 
Sutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APA
Sutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APASutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APA
Sutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APASamuel Sutanto
 
Final hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansion
Final   hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansionFinal   hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansion
Final hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansionhmhollingsworth
 
Final hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...
Final   hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...Final   hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...
Final hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...hmhollingsworth
 

Mais procurados (20)

Case Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn Red
Case Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn RedCase Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn Red
Case Study: Verizon Wireless: Chasing the Yellow Before They Turn Red
 
Verizon Ppt International Marketing
Verizon Ppt International MarketingVerizon Ppt International Marketing
Verizon Ppt International Marketing
 
Verizon Communications Inc, Industry External Analysis
Verizon Communications Inc, Industry External AnalysisVerizon Communications Inc, Industry External Analysis
Verizon Communications Inc, Industry External Analysis
 
The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...
The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...
The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Vertical...
 
Telecom Global Market Report 2018
Telecom Global Market Report 2018Telecom Global Market Report 2018
Telecom Global Market Report 2018
 
Technology Cost Optimization Strategies
Technology Cost Optimization StrategiesTechnology Cost Optimization Strategies
Technology Cost Optimization Strategies
 
Analyzing Business Models For Network Sharing Success
Analyzing Business Models For Network Sharing SuccessAnalyzing Business Models For Network Sharing Success
Analyzing Business Models For Network Sharing Success
 
Spectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 sz
Spectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 szSpectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 sz
Spectrum auction failure and how to avoid it v001 030319 sz
 
Verizon wireless company
Verizon wireless companyVerizon wireless company
Verizon wireless company
 
Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003
Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003
Awe Blue Atlantic 10162003
 
NA telecom 02
NA telecom 02NA telecom 02
NA telecom 02
 
Final hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier release
Final   hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier releaseFinal   hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier release
Final hh - 12.2.6 portage county mb additional carrier release
 
World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)
World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)
World Class Benchmarking: China Mobile (941 HK)
 
The Road to NGN (ETE 521 L2)
The Road to NGN (ETE 521 L2)The Road to NGN (ETE 521 L2)
The Road to NGN (ETE 521 L2)
 
Infrastructure sharing in bangladesh bottlenecks and way forward
Infrastructure sharing in bangladesh   bottlenecks and way forwardInfrastructure sharing in bangladesh   bottlenecks and way forward
Infrastructure sharing in bangladesh bottlenecks and way forward
 
ATT vs. Verizon
ATT vs. VerizonATT vs. Verizon
ATT vs. Verizon
 
Comcast Financial Statement Analysis
Comcast Financial Statement AnalysisComcast Financial Statement Analysis
Comcast Financial Statement Analysis
 
Sutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APA
Sutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APASutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APA
Sutanto_QuantitativeAnalysis_APA
 
Final hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansion
Final   hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansionFinal   hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansion
Final hh - 14.6.23 - camden dayton lte market expansion
 
Final hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...
Final   hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...Final   hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...
Final hh - 12.6.13 - southern ohio mb cell site deployment and additional c...
 

Destaque

Atleti madrid europa.ppt
Atleti madrid europa.pptAtleti madrid europa.ppt
Atleti madrid europa.pptgomezrios
 
General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...
General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...
General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...New European Surgical Academy
 
Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2
Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2
Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2Julien PIERRE
 
Minilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgery
Minilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgeryMinilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgery
Minilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgeryNew European Surgical Academy
 
Registro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materias
Registro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materiasRegistro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materias
Registro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materiasOlgam38
 
A Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics Roadmap
A Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics RoadmapA Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics Roadmap
A Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics RoadmapSAPinsider Events
 
Certificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1a
Certificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1aCertificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1a
Certificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1aAstrid Bakker
 
El tabú
El tabúEl tabú
El tabúOlgam38
 
Práctica 7
Práctica 7Práctica 7
Práctica 7Olgam38
 
Control de tareas
Control de tareasControl de tareas
Control de tareasOlgam38
 
Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)
Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)
Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)Mauricio Cubillos Ocampo
 
biocon & ms.shaw
biocon & ms.shawbiocon & ms.shaw
biocon & ms.shawleo
 
Imagenologia de ultima generacion en endodoncia
Imagenologia de ultima generacion en endodonciaImagenologia de ultima generacion en endodoncia
Imagenologia de ultima generacion en endodonciaPatricio Antinao
 
Plantilla horario 1
Plantilla horario 1Plantilla horario 1
Plantilla horario 1Olgam38
 
Prehistoria
PrehistoriaPrehistoria
PrehistoriaOlgam38
 
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheHow to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheLeslie Samuel
 

Destaque (18)

My Resume
My ResumeMy Resume
My Resume
 
Atleti madrid europa.ppt
Atleti madrid europa.pptAtleti madrid europa.ppt
Atleti madrid europa.ppt
 
General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...
General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...
General_Surgery_News_Article_-_The_Birth_of_Natural_Orifice_Transluminal_Endo...
 
Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2
Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2
Histoire et sociologie du numérique, chapitre 2
 
Minilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgery
Minilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgeryMinilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgery
Minilaparoscopy as an alternative to natural orifice surgery
 
Registro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materias
Registro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materiasRegistro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materias
Registro de las diferentes evaluaciones por materias
 
A Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics Roadmap
A Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics RoadmapA Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics Roadmap
A Comprehensive Guide to SAP's Cloud Analytics Roadmap
 
Certificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1a
Certificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1aCertificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1a
Certificaat - OU - Inleiding in de psychologie 1a
 
El tabú
El tabúEl tabú
El tabú
 
Práctica 7
Práctica 7Práctica 7
Práctica 7
 
Control de tareas
Control de tareasControl de tareas
Control de tareas
 
Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)
Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)
Webinar SAP BusinessObjects Cloud (English)
 
biocon & ms.shaw
biocon & ms.shawbiocon & ms.shaw
biocon & ms.shaw
 
Imagenologia de ultima generacion en endodoncia
Imagenologia de ultima generacion en endodonciaImagenologia de ultima generacion en endodoncia
Imagenologia de ultima generacion en endodoncia
 
Leyes y empresa
Leyes y empresaLeyes y empresa
Leyes y empresa
 
Plantilla horario 1
Plantilla horario 1Plantilla horario 1
Plantilla horario 1
 
Prehistoria
PrehistoriaPrehistoria
Prehistoria
 
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheHow to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
 

Semelhante a Jennifer Fritzsche State of the Wireless Industry 021816

WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE: BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...
WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE:  BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE:  BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...
WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE: BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...Kim Boggio
 
Innovation in the telecommunication Industry
Innovation in the telecommunication IndustryInnovation in the telecommunication Industry
Innovation in the telecommunication IndustryLeonard Raphael
 
Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016
Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016
Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016RedChip Companies, Inc.
 
T-Mobile Sprint Merger Assessment
T-Mobile Sprint Merger AssessmentT-Mobile Sprint Merger Assessment
T-Mobile Sprint Merger AssessmentCheenu Seshadri
 
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com v1.0
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com   v1.0Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com   v1.0
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com v1.0Jamshed Nazar
 
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.com
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.comSprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.com
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.comJamshed Nazar
 
GTCR Deck Final
GTCR Deck FinalGTCR Deck Final
GTCR Deck FinalPhilip Rim
 
20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...
20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...
20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...Tariq Ashraf
 
5G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 2027
5G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 20275G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 2027
5G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 2027Market Research Future
 
ATT Inc. Strategy Analysis
ATT Inc. Strategy AnalysisATT Inc. Strategy Analysis
ATT Inc. Strategy AnalysisKyle Hughes
 
Mobile spectrum-032013-digiversion
Mobile spectrum-032013-digiversionMobile spectrum-032013-digiversion
Mobile spectrum-032013-digiversionValue Partners
 
Hammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor Deck
Hammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor DeckHammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor Deck
Hammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor DeckRedChip Companies, Inc.
 
[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service
[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service
[2016 Outlook] Telecom ServiceJeehyun Moon
 
Shahriar Khaled 062473056
Shahriar Khaled 062473056Shahriar Khaled 062473056
Shahriar Khaled 062473056mashiur
 
FTTH versus LTE : Friend or Foe
FTTH versus LTE : Friend or FoeFTTH versus LTE : Friend or Foe
FTTH versus LTE : Friend or FoeDr.Joko Suryana
 
Industrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom Sector
Industrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom SectorIndustrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom Sector
Industrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom SectorIshan Parekh
 
[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828
[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828
[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828ROA Invention LAB Inc. CEO
 

Semelhante a Jennifer Fritzsche State of the Wireless Industry 021816 (20)

WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE: BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...
WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE:  BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE:  BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...
WORKFORCE MANAGEMENT HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE: BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...
 
Innovation in the telecommunication Industry
Innovation in the telecommunication IndustryInnovation in the telecommunication Industry
Innovation in the telecommunication Industry
 
Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016
Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016
Hmmr Presentation Global Online Growth Conference Oct 2016
 
T-Mobile Sprint Merger Assessment
T-Mobile Sprint Merger AssessmentT-Mobile Sprint Merger Assessment
T-Mobile Sprint Merger Assessment
 
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com v1.0
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com   v1.0Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com   v1.0
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetwors.com v1.0
 
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.com
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.comSprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.com
Sprint – Strategy Analysis by JNZnetworks.com
 
GTCR Deck Final
GTCR Deck FinalGTCR Deck Final
GTCR Deck Final
 
20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...
20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...
20190308 - Why the US spectrum war is the driving force behind US telecoms M&...
 
5G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 2027
5G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 20275G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 2027
5G Services Market Size, Share and Forecast 2027
 
ATT Inc. Strategy Analysis
ATT Inc. Strategy AnalysisATT Inc. Strategy Analysis
ATT Inc. Strategy Analysis
 
India Telecom
India TelecomIndia Telecom
India Telecom
 
Mobile spectrum-032013-digiversion
Mobile spectrum-032013-digiversionMobile spectrum-032013-digiversion
Mobile spectrum-032013-digiversion
 
Industry Analysis
Industry AnalysisIndustry Analysis
Industry Analysis
 
Hammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor Deck
Hammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor DeckHammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor Deck
Hammer Fiber Optics Holdings Corp. Investor Deck
 
[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service
[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service
[2016 Outlook] Telecom Service
 
Shahriar Khaled 062473056
Shahriar Khaled 062473056Shahriar Khaled 062473056
Shahriar Khaled 062473056
 
FTTH versus LTE : Friend or Foe
FTTH versus LTE : Friend or FoeFTTH versus LTE : Friend or Foe
FTTH versus LTE : Friend or Foe
 
Celia Desmond
Celia DesmondCelia Desmond
Celia Desmond
 
Industrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom Sector
Industrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom SectorIndustrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom Sector
Industrial Marketing - Telecommunications / Telecom Sector
 
[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828
[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828
[Special report]korean 4th mno is a distant dream lte tdd_20120828
 

Último

Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...Americas Got Grants
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCRashishs7044
 
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith PereraKenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Pereraictsugar
 
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524najka9823
 
PB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal Brand
PB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal BrandPB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal Brand
PB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal BrandSharisaBethune
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCRashishs7044
 
Cyber Security Training in Office Environment
Cyber Security Training in Office EnvironmentCyber Security Training in Office Environment
Cyber Security Training in Office Environmentelijahj01012
 
The-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptx
The-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptxThe-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptx
The-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptxmbikashkanyari
 
Pitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deckPitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deckHajeJanKamps
 
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...Seta Wicaksana
 
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptxFinancial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptxsaniyaimamuddin
 
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdfShaun Heinrichs
 
Organizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful BusinessOrganizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful BusinessSeta Wicaksana
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCRashishs7044
 
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03DallasHaselhorst
 
Chapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal audit
Chapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal auditChapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal audit
Chapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal auditNhtLNguyn9
 

Último (20)

Corporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
Corporate Profile 47Billion Information TechnologyCorporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
Corporate Profile 47Billion Information Technology
 
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
Church Building Grants To Assist With New Construction, Additions, And Restor...
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Dwarka mor Delhi NCR
 
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith PereraKenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
Kenya Coconut Production Presentation by Dr. Lalith Perera
 
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
Call Girls Contact Number Andheri 9920874524
 
Call Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North Goa
Call Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North GoaCall Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North Goa
Call Us ➥9319373153▻Call Girls In North Goa
 
PB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal Brand
PB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal BrandPB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal Brand
PB Project 1: Exploring Your Personal Brand
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in Shivaji Enclave Delhi NCR
 
Cyber Security Training in Office Environment
Cyber Security Training in Office EnvironmentCyber Security Training in Office Environment
Cyber Security Training in Office Environment
 
The-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptx
The-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptxThe-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptx
The-Ethical-issues-ghhhhhhhhjof-Byjus.pptx
 
Pitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deckPitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Geodesic.Life's $500k Pre-seed deck
 
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
Ten Organizational Design Models to align structure and operations to busines...
 
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptxFinancial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
Financial-Statement-Analysis-of-Coca-cola-Company.pptx
 
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
1911 Gold Corporate Presentation Apr 2024.pdf
 
Japan IT Week 2024 Brochure by 47Billion (English)
Japan IT Week 2024 Brochure by 47Billion (English)Japan IT Week 2024 Brochure by 47Billion (English)
Japan IT Week 2024 Brochure by 47Billion (English)
 
Organizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful BusinessOrganizational Structure Running A Successful Business
Organizational Structure Running A Successful Business
 
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR
8447779800, Low rate Call girls in New Ashok Nagar Delhi NCR
 
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
Cybersecurity Awareness Training Presentation v2024.03
 
No-1 Call Girls In Goa 93193 VIP 73153 Escort service In North Goa Panaji, Ca...
No-1 Call Girls In Goa 93193 VIP 73153 Escort service In North Goa Panaji, Ca...No-1 Call Girls In Goa 93193 VIP 73153 Escort service In North Goa Panaji, Ca...
No-1 Call Girls In Goa 93193 VIP 73153 Escort service In North Goa Panaji, Ca...
 
Chapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal audit
Chapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal auditChapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal audit
Chapter 9 PPT 4th edition.pdf internal audit
 

Jennifer Fritzsche State of the Wireless Industry 021816

  • 1. Current State of the Wireless Industry Presentation to Alabama Wireless Association Jennifer Fritzsche, Managing Director – Wells Fargo Securities (312) 920-3548 / jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com February 2016 All estimates / forecasts are as of 2/19/2016 unless otherwise specified. Please see page 27 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
  • 2. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com Contents SECTION I: Who Am I And Why Am I Here? SECTION II: Wireless Industry At A Quick Glance SECTION III: 5 Key Themes In Telecom SECTION IV: An In Depth Look At Strategies Of Big 4 Wireless Players SECTION V: 3 Trends To Watch For In 2016 & Beyond 2
  • 3. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com SECTION I: Who Am I & Why I Am Here?
  • 4. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 4 Jennifer Fritzsche – Who is She & Why Is She Here!? • Sell-side Analyst who has followed wireless industry in a senior role since 1997. I have seen the good, bad and ugly! Somehow survived 4 bank mergers and lived (barely) through the financial crisis of 2008. All the better for it (but it did not seem like it during that time!) • Zero experience at telecom companies. Joined Kemper Securities right out of business school in 1995 and was lucky enough to be a junior associate analyst for two very smart telecom analysts. Was lucky to learn from some of the very best. • Chicago native. The only sell-side telecom analyst who actually lives in Chicago. Also one of the only female telecom analysts. Live in Northern suburbs with my husband and three children. Also a hockey mom (although in many ways I don’t fit that stereotype!)! • Follow 23 companies (wireless carriers, towers, fiber players, data centers, RLECs). Very strong relationships with my companies (“my children” as I call them). My client base is portfolio managers focused on the telecom space.
  • 5. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com SECTION II: Wireless Industry At A Quick Glance
  • 6. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 6 Snapshot View of Wireless Industry 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 EstimatedSubscribers(inMillions) Estimated Subscribers Estimated Subscribers Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey estimates, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 TotalServiceRevenues(inBillions) Service Revenues Service Revenues Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 NumberofCellSites Cell Sites Number of Cell Sites Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 TotalCapex(inBillions) Cumulative Capital Investment Cumulative Capital Investment Source: CTIA Wireless Annual Survey, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 7. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 7 Voice Is An App – Data is The Here and Now
  • 8. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com SECTION III: 5 Key Themes in Telecom
  • 9. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 9 Key Themes in Telecom THEME 1: Spectrum = Life Blood of Wireless Network  Spectrum is critical to carriers in building out wireless networks and valuable due to its scarcity and limited capacity  The FCC has announced 2 major spectrum auctions, the first notable auctions since 2008  65 MHz AWS-3 spectrum auction concluded in January 2015 and generated $44.9B in gross bids  Broadcast (incentive) auction expected in March 2016 (600MHz)  The 4 primary drivers of spectrum value are: frequency / propagation characteristics, location, channel size and inclusion in global standards  Prices of spectrum (in auctions and secondary markets) have continued to increase in past few years given the scarcity of this asset. So in short, who has what?  VZ: In our view, substantial holdings of low 700MHz (C Block) and 850MHz, plus its purchase of AWS spectrum from a cable consortium . Won 181 licenses for a total of $10.4B in AWS-3 auction.  T: Good position, in our view, with 700MHz and 850MHz holdings, and has been adding AWS and 2.1 GHz for network capacity. Spent $18.2B in AWS-3 auction (mostly in J block) and committed $9B (with conditions) in the broadcast auction.  S: Substantial capacity in metro areas, in our view, with 2.5GHz spectrum (multiple 20x20 channels). S also has 1900 and 800 MHz spectrum. Did not participate in AWS-3 auction and will also not participate in broadcast auction.  TMUS: Benefits from simplicity of contiguous spectrum bands (AWS, PCS, 700MHz), which are less fragmented than the spectrum holdings of its competitors. Spent $1.8B in AWS-3 auction and we expect them to be active in broadcast auction, with a goal to have nationwide coverage of low-band. Bought a bunch of 700MHz A block from VZ and just bought a bunch more.
  • 10. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 10 Key Themes in Telecom THEME 2: Fiber is Major Focus for Carriers  Due to the expanding appetite for bandwidth, fiber networks have seen numerous changes in response to accelerated traffic growth (global IP traffic expected to grow 3x through 2019).  Ethernet: Migration of enterprise from legacy TDM/SONET to Ethernet, which provides higher speeds and lower cost per bit  Fiber-to-the-Tower: The deployment and densification of LTE networks to meet bandwidth demand have accelerated fiber build-outs for wireless backhaul  Dark Fiber: With longer contracts, higher margins and lower churn than lit fiber, dark fiber is favored by many carriers as it provides scalable bandwidth and flexibility for the lessee  Metro Fiber: Provides high margin on-net revenue for carriers and better control over network performance  The competitive landscape continues to evolve, with consolidation of fiber assets such as LVLT/TWTC and Fibertech/Lightower, enhanced competition for fiber-to-the-home between the incumbents and new entrants like Google, and M&A with tower assets (CCI/Sunesys) and data centers (ZAYO/Latisys) Fiber Statistics by Carrier Carrier Fiber Route Miles Metro Route Miles On-Net Buildings Metro Markets LTM Revenue ($MM) EBITDA ($MM) Margin AT&T 1 1,014,000 N/A 20,000 N/A 57,549 15,611 27.1% Verizon 1 800,000 N/A 10,000 N/A 38,028 8,846 23.3% CenturyLink 250,000 N/A N/A N/A 17,822 6,814 38.2% Level 3 207,000 64,000 40,000 350 8,204 2,555 31.1% Time Warner Cable 150,000 N/A 75,000 31 N/A N/A N/A Comcast 141,000 N/A N/A 26 N/A N/A N/A Windstream 118,000 N/A N/A N/A 5,706 1,188 20.8% Zayo Group 85,500 N/A 18,000 320 1,347 783 58.1% Frontier 78,838 N/A 6,300 N/A 5,210 2,173 41.7% Charter 65,000 N/A 13,800 N/A 9,439 3,297 34.9% Cogent 59,000 27200 2,191 190 388 130 33.4% Lightower 30,000 N/A 15,000 N/A N/AN/A N/A N/A 1 Wireline businesses only Source: Company reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
  • 11. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 11 Key Themes in Telecom THEME 3: Wireless – The Changing Pricing Landscape  Industry moving toward Equipment Installment Plans (EIP), which shifts service revenue toward equipment revenue and benefit margins as equipment subsidies are eliminated  Recent trend at Sprint and TMUS toward phone leasing in which the Company capitalizes the phones on the balance sheet and records depreciation over the phone’s life Overview of Wireless Carriers  T: Aggressively promoted its EIP (Next) and shared data plans (Mobile Share Value) in 2014 and now has ~46% of postpaid smartphone base on Next and ~70% on non-subsidy plans.  VZ: Offered its own EIP in response to TMUS and T and has now eliminated subsidized plans; Usually relies on network quality to attract and maintain subs, although has become more aggressive with pricing  S: First carrier to offer leasing plans and continues to be aggressive with pricing and promotions to attract subscribers  TMUS: Shook up wireless industry in 2013 with Value plans and EIP program; continues to be active with promotions, leading the industry in postpaid handset net adds for 7 of the past 8 quarters Current Single-Line Pricing Plans by Carrier* JUMP On- Demand iPhone Forever EasyPay Subsidized Subsidized (2-yr) Terms 18-m lease 22-m lease 24-m EIP 2-yr contract 2-yr contract Upgrade Options 3/year 1/year After 2-year contract Upgrade Cost $0 $0 N/A Upfront Phone Payment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $200 $0 $0 $200 $0 $0 Monthly Service Fee $70 $70 $80 $70 $70 $70 $75 $115 $140 $80 $100 Monthly Device Fee $20 $27 $27 $22 $27 $0 $27 $27 0 $27 $27 Monthly Data Cap 5GB 5GB Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited 5GB 15GB 15GB 6GB 12GB Total Monthly Cost $90 $97 $107 $92 $97 $70 $102 $142 $140 $107 $127 Total 24 Month Cost $2,160 $2,330 $2,570 $2,208 $2,330 $1,880 $2,450 $3,410 $3,560 $2,570 $3,050 *Excludes sales tax and certain promotions; Prices as of October 2015 Source: Company websites and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Upgrade after 18 installment payments 24-m EIP Next (24-months) $0 Installment Plan 24-m EIP Upgrade when 50% of device paid off $0 Upgrade when 50% of device paid off 24-m EIP $10/month $10/month 1/year T-Mobile AT&T VerizonSprint Simple Choice - Single Line
  • 12. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 12 Key Themes in Telecom THEME 4: Industry Regulation Remains Major Influence  FCC has signalled that it favours “organic” wireless growth over consolidation  Sprint halted its pursuit of a merger with T-Mobile given low likelihood of regulators approving the deal  FCC has issued proposal that would prevent joint ventures, such as one proposed by T-Mobile and Sprint, from bidding in the next spectrum auction, which it believes would suppress competition, particularly among small businesses  Uncertainty surrounds the timing of the spectrum incentive auction and how much spectrum will be eligible for reallocation to wireless providers  The debate over “net neutrality” and the Open Internet has received considerable public scrutiny; Questions remain surrounding:  Should content companies be allowed to pay broadband providers for prioritized delivery of their content?  The FCC’s recent Open Internet Order classifies wireless and wireline broadband under Title II, although uncertainty will likely continue given the litigation challenging the FCC’s authority  Can forbearance from rate regulation be struck down by a future administration?  Other key issues to watch for include an extension of bonus depreciation and reforms to the Universal Service Fund (USF) and Intercarrier Compensation (ICC) systems
  • 13. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 13 Key Themes in Telecom THEME 5: Trend Toward IT Outsourcing Should Benefit Data Centers and Fiber Players  Global IP traffic is forecasted to grow 23% annually through 2019, which should result in a need for improved IT infrastructure  Only 20-25% of global server deployments are outsourced to 3rd party facilities  Growth in network bandwidth should drive continued outsourcing to carrier-neutral data centers  Fiber-based CLECs should see increased demand for connecting these data centers  Rapid adoption of cloud/managed hosting business models should benefit latency-sensitive colocation and interconnection-focused data centers, as cloud providers increasingly need a presence in edge facilities Global IPTraffic Forecast (PB/Month) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mobile Managed IP Fixed Internet 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Asia Pacific Middle East/Africa LatAm Central/Eastern Europe Western Europe North America Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Data CenterTraffic Forecast (ZB/Year)
  • 14. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com SECTION IV: An In Depth Look At Strategies Of Big 4 Wireless Players
  • 15. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 15 AT&T - (T) Wireless Strategy  DirecTV (DTV) acquisition driven by content savings, cross-selling opportunity and FCF accretion  Mobile Share Value and Next plans have helped lower churn and gain sub share  In 2015 seemed willing to cede handset share – did not match VZ’s price point of $80 / 10GB of data. Market is rewarding it for beating on margin and toeing line on price.  At the cusp of important changes on wireless side – video going to be major component here, especially with DTV in the mix, in our view.  Seemed to slow wireless build and focus more on pushing fiber into the ground (GigaPower). In 2015, the mix of wireline and wireless capx was more equal than in the past (historically wireless was higher). Believe they are focused on spending on wireline infrastructure in an effort to support the anticipated wireless data “tsunami” that is on the come with video entering the fold.  Open questions remain about how mix shift of capex impacts the towers industry.  AT&T Next is here to stay. Only option for consumers buying T service in indirect retailers and we believe this will be where it will go in direct strategy. See next page.  Banking more on spectrum than capx. AT&T spent $18B (the highest bidder) in the AWS-3 auction. Never met a spectrum deal it did not seem to like (i.e. Aloha Wireless, Atlantic Cellular, LEAP).  Mexico (through the recent acquisitions of Nextel International’s Mexican assets and Iusacell) is part of the view to make a 400MM POP North American wireless footprint.  Would expect to hear more on a video Over the Top (OTT) strategy. T views the critical bundle as “Wireless, Broadband and Video.” With DTV now closed – it should begin to connect these dots.
  • 16. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 16 Sprint Corp. (S) Wireless Strategy:  Spectrum value is very deep, with its significant holdings of 2.5GHz spectrum – has more spectrum than any of the big 4 carriers. Big empty airplane!  Big checkbook behind Sprint is Softbank. Softbank CEO (Masa Son) is in the weeds and seems myopically focused on turning it around.  CEO Marcelo Claure’s focus on new pricing plans and promotions should help bring gross adds back to Sprint. Saw real turn in FQ2 and FQ3 2015 where it realized positive handset adds (first time in a LONG time).  Network has always been an issue for Sprint….but it is FINALLY getting better. Root Metrics recognition has improved by 6x in 2H15 vs. 1H15. Small cells are a major part of the forward looking strategy, though actual network strategy remains a mystery. Most are wondering, is the US like Japan?  Actual network strategy remains a mystery. Similar to T, what is impact on towers industry?  Prioritizing expense improvements in areas like roaming expense, procurement, distribution, backhaul and handset costs.  Saw record low postpay churn (1.54%) in FQ2 2015 – decrease in both voluntary and involuntary churn.  Damaged Brand, in our view – takes a long time to repair.  Radio Shack stores (~1,400) are now online. Distribution key focus for Sprint.  Should have multiple carrier aggregation chipsets soon, which would allow Sprint to access multiple 20 MHz channels  In our view, the challenge for Sprint is real confusion as to what it stands for in the market place.  Expect leasing to be a major part of the strategy. The ownership of Brightstar (by Softbank) helps with this strategy, in our view. We believe the formation of Mobile Leasing Solutions, LLC (MLS) is a differentiator, and unique to Sprint given the partnerships backing it.
  • 17. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 17 T-Mobile US, Inc. - (TMUS) Wireless Strategy:  TMUS has had a renaissance since getting the iPhone in April 2013 and successfully embraced social media platform to build the brand. The TMUS user is frugal – but cool at the same time!  Hit and identified all the many “pain points” of the US wireless consumer. The Southwest Airlines of the wireless industry!  Clear leader in postpay subs. But we still question the quality of the subs they are getting. A look into the three other national carriers’ churn rates does not make sense.  Un-carrier program has driven subs growth, with ARPU stabilization has followed.  Significant strides with network since completion of MetroPCS acquisition (completed May 2013) , including nationwide launch of VoLTE, ongoing progress toward MetroPCS spectrum re-farming, and vast improvements in network performance  Largest amount of prepay subs of the Big 4 (16MM+)  Like Sprint, lack coverage in rural America – however they have been adding this with their A block spectrum and opening retail stores there. This is good for regional players (like US Cellular) and means they will have to be very active in the upcoming broadcast spectrum auction (600MHz), in our view. Our channel checks show some network congestion as the average TMUS smartphone customer is using 2x-3x the data as that of T or VZ.  If industry is turning to video and content – they lack relationships, in our view.
  • 18. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 18 Verizon - (VZ) Wireless Strategy  Strong overall wireless network quality, in our view; focused on densification of LTE in metro footprint.  Spent less on spectrum than closest peer (AT&T) in recent spectrum auction. Shifting to capx driven model (with large emphasis on small cells).  Like T, we believe it’s at the cusp of important changes on wireless side with video being the heart of the offering. Plans to introduce an OTT (Over the Top) mobile / video bundle in “late summer.” Has already signed some important OTT deals with content players (including ESPN). We believe this will be three pillar strategy: 1) premium content, 2) pay per view and 3) advertising.  AOL acquisition and its full “stack” capabilities should help advertising component of VZ’s OTT model.  VZ went to the Equipment Installment Plans (EIP) kicking and screaming. However, now seem to be pushing its EIP plan in a bigger way. EIP (which used to be called EDGE) accounted for 68% of Q4 post-pay subs vs. 58% in Q3. Hard part for VZ is this runway is still long only 16% of have converted vs. 37% of AT&T’s smartphone base on Next.  On 8/13 moved to an all EIP plan (for all new gross adds) and simplified price structure in easier to understand way. We believe this will be well received.  In 2015, seemedto be “protecting base” mode – leading on $80 for 10 GB. $20 below its closest peer (AT&T) .  VZ seems to be more in defensive mode of late. Stock was punished in Q2’15 because of this strategy as it had to lower revenue outlook by 100 basis points.  When you are on top it is hard to stay there!
  • 19. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com SECTION V: 3 Trends to Watch for in 2016 & Beyond
  • 20. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 20 THREE TRENDS TO WATCH FOR IN 2016 & BEYOND • 1) Expect to Visit the Cemetery of the “Unlimited” Plans….Days are Numbered – Expect TMUS and Sprint to sunset their unlimited plans very soon. – Unlimited plans = Dumb Pipes, in our view. AT&T and Verizon learned this. Others likely will too – especially as usage continues to grow at such an exponential rate. – In our view, carriers need to move to a metered pricing plan so they can participate in this usage growth. – This would allow the wireless model to shift from a subscriber driven one to an ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) one. This is the shift carriers need to make (given the wireless industry is over 100% penetration) in order to realize further margin expansion, in our opinion. • 2) Spectrum, Spectrum, Spectrum – Watch the broadcast auction! – We believe there will be very little secondary market transactions before the quiet period begins for the broadcast auction (this quiet period started in January, 2016). – After completion of the broadcast auction (which we expect to last , 6+ months)– then expect a flutter of secondary market deals (trades, M&A, spectrum swaps, etc). • 3) Video, Video, Video – We expect AT&T and VZ to be pushing video hard through their respective OTT plans. – AT&T recently said video +60% of traffic running over T's global network, and nearing 70%. – Question if it is too little too late for Sprint and T-Mobile in this regard. – Does the carrier who owns wireline assets (like T and VZ) give them an inherent advantage in this regard?
  • 21. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com SECTION VI: OK – I am Here to Talk To Tower Owners….So - How Does Wall Street View the Tower Industry?
  • 22. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 22 Tower Model Snapshot Source: Wells Fargo Securities Estimates
  • 23. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 23 What Investors USED TO Say About Tower Industry • Best business EVER….wish I thought of this! • The last bill carriers won’t pay is the tower bill. • Data is growing like a weed more cell sites will always be needed because of the lack of spectrum. • Tower companies always will have pricing power • Small cells are next leg of growth for towers • International is a good thing for tower companies because they will follow the US lead.
  • 24. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 24 What Investors NOW Say About Tower Industry • Towers are business with decelerating growth…good days are behind it! • Carriers are pushing back hard & towers have less pricing power – Sprint – Re/Code Article and, more alarmingly, AT&T has been on “rant” against the tower model talking about tilting cell sites & bounty hunters (No…I am not joking!) • Data is growing like a weed – yes…but there are new ways to handle it…move the intelligence above the network (SDN) • Small cells are next leg of growth for wireless spending – but fiber cos. (not the towers) hold keys to the kingdom. • International has been a big-time headache for tower companies due to FX…..those with exposure to Brazil (American Tower & SBA) feeling most pain.
  • 25. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 25 Bottom Line View on Towers from This (Crazy or Smart?) Analyst…. • Sentiment on sector has definitely shifted more negative. • BUT we still think towers have much leverage against carriers….. • Need evidence? Just look at the Cisco Visual Networking Index report (dated: 2/3/16). Many stats stand out which should allow you all to sleep well at night. Some include: – Smart mobile devices and connections are projected to represent 72% of total mobile devices and connections by 2020 -- up from 36% in 2015. – Globally, smart devices represented 36% of the total mobile devices and connections in 2015; they accounted for 89% of the mobile data traffic – Average smartphone usage grew 43% in 2015. The average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2015 was 929 MB per month, up from 648 MB per month in 2014. – In 2015, the number of mobile-connected tablets increased 1.3-fold to 133MM, and each tablet generated 2.8x more traffic than the average smartphone. In 2015, mobile data traffic per tablet was 2.6GB per month, compared to 929 MB per month per smartphone. • All this said - there is indeed a Game of Chicken being seen between carriers & tower cos…no question! Sprint is serious about pursuing a new architecture. But my guess is bigger worry for all of you – is AT&T. AT&T knows there is a large pool of tower developers, smaller tower coos etc. Seems to want to try to leverage its options and they know these companies desperately want AT&T business. We don’t expect AT&T to run back into tower companies arms quickly. They should but it may take some more time. Near term focus is on pushing wired / fiber connection in ground. • But – on good news side….Verizon & T-Mobile should continue to be your friend – not foe! BOTTOM LINE: Longer term there are MANY catalysts for this sector (more spectrum needs to be deployed, lots of naked spectrum not yet build, FirstNet, etc). But near term you could still see some sluggishness in carrier spending as they navigate their capital needs and overall network strategies. Carriers are under pressure in their own models (pricing, spectrum costs, etc.) so every penny spent on capital is being examined in a much more serious way!
  • 26. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com 26 Disclosures To view price charts for all companies rated in this document, please go to https://www.wellsfargo.com/research or write to 7 Saint Paul Street, 1st Floor, R1230-011, Baltimore, MD 21202 ATTN: Research Publications Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. VOLATILITY RATING V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading. As of: February 19, 2016 44% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 38% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies. 54% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 30% of its Equity Research Market Perform-rated companies. 2% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underperform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 16% of its Equity Research Underperform-rated companies.
  • 27. Jennifer Fritzsche (312) 920-3548 jennifer.fritzsche@wellsfargo.com Caleb Stein (312) 845-9797 caleb.stein@wellsfargo.com Eric Luebchow (312) 630-2386 eric.luebchow@wellsfargo.com Important Disclosure for International Clients EEA – The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“the Act”), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. Australia – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is exempt from the requirements to hold an Australian financial services license in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is regulated under U.S. laws which differ from Australian laws. Any offer or documentation provided to Australian recipients by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC in the course of providing the financial services will be prepared in accordance with the laws of the United States and not Australian laws. Canada – This report is distributed in Canada by Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a registered investment dealer in Canada and member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts may participate in company events such as site visits but are generally prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the subject companies for associated expenses unless pre-authorized by members of Research Management. Hong Kong – This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited (“WFSAL”), a Hong Kong incorporated investment firm licensed and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“the SFC”) to carry on types 1, 4, 6 and 9 regulated activities (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of The Laws of Hong Kong), “the SFO”). This report is not intended for, and should not be relied on by, any person other than professional investors (as defined in the SFO). Any securities and related financial instruments described herein are not intended for sale, nor will be sold, to any person other than professional investors (as defined in the SFO). The author or authors of this report is or are not licensed by the SFC. Professional investors who receive this report should direct any queries regarding its contents to Mark Jones at WFSAL (email: wfsalresearch@wellsfargo.com ). Japan – This report is distributed in Japan by Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co., Ltd, registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau to conduct broking and dealing of type 1 and type 2 financial instruments and agency or intermediary service for entry into investment advisory or discretionary investment contracts. This report is intended for distribution only to professional investors (Tokutei Toushika) and is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, ordinary customers (Ippan Toushika). The ratings stated on the document are not provided by rating agencies registered with the Financial Services Agency of Japan (JFSA) but by group companies of JFSA- registered rating agencies. These group companies may include Moody’s Investors Services Inc., Standard & Poor’s Rating Services and/or Fitch Ratings. Any decisions to invest in securities or transactions should be made after reviewing policies and methodologies used for assigning credit ratings and assumptions, significance and limitations of the credit ratings stated on the respective rating agencies’ websites. About Wells Fargo Securities Wells Fargo Securities is the trade name for the capital markets and investment banking services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries, including but not limited to Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of NYSE, FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Prime Services, LLC, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a member of IIROC and CIPF, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in this report. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that provided this report to them, if they desire further information. The information in this report has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, to be reliable, but Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not represent that this information is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, at this time, and are subject to change without notice. For the purposes of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority's rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. Each of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks. Copyright © 2016 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. 27 SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE