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January 2011




Winning with your
Supply Chain
Strategies for creating value,
and preparing for the rebound




The past years have been volatile for many supply              The signs are there that the much expected rebound
chains. Whereas before the steep and unprecedented             will challenge and confront supply chains with
decline in demand, the creation of shareholder value           higher demand, and this at unprecedented speed,
was significantly driven by a continuous quest for             in smaller quantities, and in environments with
growth, business leaders in a ‘no growth’ environment          less inventory and slack capacity. It is clear that
must focus on the remaining levers for value creation.         uncertainty and volatility are here to stay and that
The mantra in many businesses has changed on very              supply chain leaders will have to define and implement
short notice from a quest for growth into a quest              strategies to manage the associated risks. But the
for cash, operating margin and asset efficiency, in an         current and future volatile business environment
environment that is exposed to significantly higher            also constitutes an opportunity to win for those
levels of risk and uncertainty than ever before.               businesses that develop supply chain tactics to reduce
                                                               risk, or offset the risk levels in their supply chains,
Shareholder value drivers…in uncertain times
                                                               by incorporating additional agility and flexibility.
                                                               In this paper, we develop a point of view on what
                         Revenue
                                          Not/Less available   supply chain and business leaders in manufacturing
                         Growth
                                                               and consumer industries should do to create
    Shareholder          Operating                             value and to prepare for the much expected
       Value              Margin                               upturn in times of increased uncertainty.
                                                 Focus
                           Asset
        20               Efficiency 22
                         15                 35
                  30

                                                      34
        80               72          77
                  65                        68
                                                      36
everything that is structural in the supply chain: the

How does supply chain
                                                                               distribution network, the manufacturing footprint,
                                                                               asset allocation policies for products and customers,

management contribute to value
                                                                               decision making about outsourcing, and aligning the
                                                                               trading relations between the various entities in the

creation in the business?
                                                                               supply chain to optimize additional variables such as for
                                                                               instance tax in the equation. Overall, it’s all about doing
                                                                               the right things, focusing on supply chain efficiency and
           Supply chain management basically contributes to                    effectiveness.
           value creation in the business through optimization
           and alignment of structures, policies and processes:                Processes contribute to optimal cost, cash, efficiency
                                                                               and maximum profit by doing things right, conceptually
           •	by	providing	cost	and	cash	optimal	network	structures	            and content-wise, by focusing on the flow of value to
             at the level of the inbound supply chain, and in                  the customer and by delivering the aspired business
             manufacturing and distribution (FOOTPRINT)                        results with as little waste as possible.
           •	by	aligning	processes	in	planning,	sourcing,	making	
             and delivering (PROCESSES)                                        Aligning and optimizing the supply chain footprint and
           •	by	aligning	planning	and	inventory	deployment	                    processes, is very often an ideal starting point towards
             policies that balance service, cost, inventory and                supply chain excellence. It will deliver cost, cash and
             capacity assets (BALANCE), and                                    profit benefits to the business in aggregate, meaning for
           •	by	providing	TRANSPARENCY	at	a	granular	level	of	                 all customers and for all products at the same time.
             customers and products, for portfolio management
             and profitability improvement in the business.


           Managing the supply chain for value creation in the business


                     Footprint                          Balance                           Transparency                     Processes

                                                  Operations strategy &
                     Strategy                     inventory deployment                    Cost-to-serve                      PLAN
                                                         tactics

                                                                                     Portfolio complexity &
                Footprint & Network              Balancing service mix,                                                 SOURCE/PROCURE
                                                                                   profitability management
                                                     assets and cost
                                                                                    Spend visibility & TCO
               Strategic Outsourcing                                                                                        MAKE
                                               Improving the balance by                transparency
                                               aligning influence factors:
                                                service offering policies,          Strategic sourcing and
                   Tax aligned
                                               enhancing responsiveness              supplier relationship                 DELIVER
                   supply chain
                                                  & reducing variability                management


                                                                                                                            RETURN
                                                                 The financial supply chain:
                                                        granular business performance improvement


                                       The foundation of the supply chain: aggregate business performance improvement


                                                                     Cost, profit & cash



           The foundations
           The supply chain footprint and the supply chain                     The next level
           processes basically constitute the foundation or                    Finding the right balance and providing transparency
           architecture of the supply chain. When they are                     for profitability management are competences that are
           optimized and aligned, they ought to be robust for                  situated at a more granular level in the supply chain, and
           the medium term, say the next 3-5 years. Footprint is               are indicators for a more advanced type of supply chain
                                                                               management in which cost and cash performance is

2
further improved by optimizing profitability at the level   all of this complexity was added in a profitable way,
of individual customers, products and product groups.       and it is not uncommon to find out as a result of
                                                            a cost-to-serve initiative, that a significant portion
The balancing act                                           of the profit potential - ranging from 30%-50% - is
Finding a balance is about making decisions where to        eroded by unprofitable products and offerings. For
deploy inventory or slack capacity as a shock absorber      companies with average supply chain maturity,
for the demand and supply side variability in the supply    integrated Cost-to-Serve initiatives often show
chain. It is also about deciding how much buffer in         potential to improve absolute EBIT% margin with a
terms of inventory or capacity is needed to balance         range of an additional 0,5% - 2,0%.
service requirements with cost and cash. Finding an
optimal and profitable balance between these very often     Businesses that invest in supply chain competences to
conflicting requirements is probably one of the most        ‘Balance the Dynamics’ or to ‘Provide Cost-to-Serve
important supply chain competences in businesses that       Transparency’ are leaders in an evolution towards a
are exposed to volatility.                                  more advanced type of supply chain management in
For companies with average supply chain maturity,           which business performance is improved by fine tuning
it is not uncommon to reduce total inventory                the supply chain at a granular level. It is a clear example
levels by 5-20% with a service improvement or a             of what is commonly referred to as ‘the Financial
cost reduction on top, by optimizing the planning           Supply Chain’, and constitutes a transformation to
and inventory deployment tactics at the level of            a more mature type of supply chain function in the
individual products, product groups, distribution           business, reaching out to, and facilitating the business
channels and customers.                                     performance improvement dialogue with the Finance
                                                            and with the Sales & Marketing functions. Research
Creating transparency                                       conducted by Insead and Stanford University on the
Creating Transparency is about supply chain                 link between Financial and Supply Chain Performance,
professionals delivering cost-to-serve transparency         indicated that companies with higher levels of supply
to the business in order to facilitate profitability and    chain maturity also outperform their competitors
portfolio complexity decisions at the granular level of     financially.
products and customers. Cost-to-Serve in this respect
is a collective term for methodologies that reveal the
true cost of processes and activities in manufacturing
(Cost-to-Make), Logistics (Cost-to-Fulfill), and selling    Supply Chain Leaders show
(Cost-to-Sell), by using pragmatic activity based costing
principles in a supply chain and commercial context.        significantly higher Market
At the inbound side of the supply chain, this cost
transparency could be called Cost-to-Own (or more           Capitalization Growth Rates
commonly known as Total Cost of Ownership), which is
an important lever to enhance spend and cost efficiency.    (Insead/Standford University , The link between Supply Chain
Granular Cost-to-Serve transparency is generally used       and Financial Performance)
to define priorities for cost reduction and process
improvement initiatives, to make decisions about            A regional consumer business company was able to
product and customer portfolio’s and to develop and         realize significant profitability improvements by applying
implement service offering policies and trade terms that    the above mentioned principles. Through alignment
drive customer behavior in a way favorable to overall       of planning policies and parameters in line with
business profitability.                                     volatility in supply and demand, significant inventory
                                                            reductions were achieved in several countries with
In the current uncertain business environment,              stockholding responsibility. An alignment initiative of
methodologies that align the supply chain at the            lot sizes in the factories at the various levels within the
granular level (individual products and customers),         product hierarchy (recipies, semi-finished products,
probably comprise the biggest opportunity for profit and    finished products) revealed potential for longer runs,
cash improvement. The rationale is that in the past         especially for those products that triggered a major
years with relatively high growth rates, companies          portion of costs in changeover and product waste.
have added significant amounts of complexity in             Several unprofitable SKU’s were rationalized following
terms of products and service offering policies. Not        a Cost-to-Make and Cost-to-Serve initiative. Overall this

                                                                                                                           3
company was able to significantly reduce unprofitable           demand volatility, supply uncertainty, currency exchange
SKU’s, changeovers, and waste, resulting in a reduction         risk etc.). In a perfectly predictable world without supply
of manufacturing cost by 10%, in inventory by 40%,              chain risk, there is no need for flexibility and hence the
and in an absolute EBIT% margin increase by 1,5%.               value of flexibility and agility enhancing investments is
                                                                limited.

                                                                Risk and Flexibility: communicating vessels



Impact of the current
volatile and uncertain                                                                         Supply Chain
                                                                                                 Flexibility
                                                                                               Enhancement

environment on
supply chain value                                                                  Supply Chain
                                                                                   Risk Reduction

creation:
understanding risk,
and the value of                                                Flexibility however comes with a cost, as it very
                                                                often means adding slack and redundancy in a

flexibility.                                                    focused and useful way. More and more companies
                                                                however, look at it as an option that creates
                                                                value to the business, and that creates more
                                                                value the more volatile and uncertain the business
The most relevant learning of the current downturn              environment becomes.
is about understanding how risk impacts supply chain            Making decisions under uncertainty and understanding
performance and more in particular how this impact              the value of flexibility has its roots in real-options
can be reversed by balancing or offsetting risks with           theory. This theory makes explicit that flexibility is more
supply chain flexibility and agility. Risk and flexibility in   important when uncertainly and volatility are high. And
this respect have to be seen as communicating vessels           more specifically it provides a framework to estimate
or forces that have to be balanced. The requirement to          the value of flexibility. In footprint optimization or
enhance and invest in supply chain flexibility and agility,     asset rationalization programs for instance, lacking
and the business value that derives from it, is directly        the capability of being able to appraise the value of
correlated to the level of residual uncertainty and related     flexibility, leads to suboptimal decision making. Scenarios
risks a supply chain is exposed to (e.g. in terms of            with additional flexibility in terms of volume, product


4
mix or network flexibility would only be burdened with         often boils down to an increased level of integration
           the additional cost of the flexibility without being able      or regionalization of the supply chain. In mature
           to account for the value that derives from it. Especially in   business environments, integrating or regionalizing the
           environments with a lot of uncertainty, this will give rise    supply chain provides opportunities to take advantage
           to suboptimal decision making at the level of preferred        of consolidated services and synergies, to drive out
           footprint scenarios.                                           redundancy and increase efficiency. In addition, more
           With uncertainty and volatility expected to stay,              integrated supply chain structures are more capable to
           what are the options for supply chain leaders? Using           leverage network flexibility potential.
           the analogy of the communicating vessels, there are
           two potential strategies:                                      Network flexibility
           •	Managing	and	reducing	supply	chain	risk:	e.g.                At the level of the supply chain network, it is often
           	 •	starting	a	formal	supplier	risk	management		 	             about making the hidden flexibility transparent by
               program                                                    integrating information from around the network
           	 •	increasing	demand	planning	accuracy	                       based on a holistic view of the supply chain. Hidden
           •	Managing	and	enhancing	supply	chain	flexibility:	e.g.        flexibility in practice can take different forms: alternative
           	 •	investing	in	additional	tooling	and	assets	to	             sources of supply, alternative locations to manufacture
             enhance	mix	flexibility	on	a	production	line,	               and to deliver. In complex and interdependent
           	 •	finetuning	deployment	tactics	at	a	more	granular	          supply chains (complex routings, multiple steps with
             level, and doing it more frequently                          interdependencies, limited slack capacity and excess
                                                                          inventories), the transparency and the flexibility
           The section below will provide more examples on                leveraged by a central supply chain entrepreneur brings
           how supply chain risk can be reduced or supply chain           added value by supporting better decision making in
           flexibility can be enhanced.                                   short and medium term sourcing, product and customer
                                                                          allocation, and inventory deployment tactics throughout
                                                                          the network. In general the experience is that supply

How to reduce risk and enhance                                            chain integration promotes more (cost and cash)
                                                                          optimal and faster decision making by leveraging hidden

flexibility in the supply chain?                                          network flexibility. This effect is particularly strong in
                                                                          intensely volatile environments with many degrees of
                                                                          freedom to manage.

                                                                          Very often, leveraging this hidden network flexibility and
           Enhancing flexibility and reducing risk can be achieved        creating a centralized supply chain function requires a
           in different ways. It can be done within the supply chain      redesign of the business model. Therefore it is complex,
           network, within the 4 walls of the operational units, and      but it is often less expensive than building additional
           within supply chain management processes.                      flexibility within the walls of individual operational
                                                                          facilities in response to market demand, supplier risk,
           In the current uncertain times, managing the supply            currency exchange and commodity price volatility.
           chain is all about managing for cash with a strong focus
           on inventories, and cost reduction in the business.            On the Inbound side of the Supply Chain, the
           And most businesses across a variety of industries             contemporary Supply Management environment is
           have started with the obvious things, by streamlining          characterized by a newly discovered recognition that
           their G&A, by aggressively tackling external spend, by         some of the major risks an organization faces may
           streamlining their organizations etc.                          come from the supplier base. Proactive management
                                                                          of these risks can demonstrate the strategic perspective
           There are companies however, that have realized that           and value, as well as the professional competence
           there is an opportunity to go beyond the obvious by            of the Supply Management function. The increasing
           taking a multi-tiered approach to the downturn. These          dependence on suppliers makes the traditional ‘laissez
           companies take advantage of the current restructuring          faire’ approach dangerous, and has caused leading
           friendly environment (suppliers, unions, regulators,           enterprises to start investing in Supplier Relationship
           employees, etc.) to take an extended enterprise view           Management (SRM),a discipline that ensures the
           and redesign their business model. In the more mature          enterprise actively manages its relationships with
           and low growth business environments, this very                strategic suppliers.

                                                                                                                                      5
Reducing lead times
    Within the 4 walls of operational or manufacturing facilities, flexibility can be enhanced by investing in additional
    tooling or assets to enhance product mix flexibility on existing manufacturing assets, by negotiating more flexible
    labor or supplier agreements, or by investing in lead time reduction efforts. Reducing supply chain lead times
    through enterprise lean six sigma efforts for instance, very often allows moving the decoupling point or the push-pull
    boundary in the supply chain, physically to more upstream levels. This typically results in a situation where relatively
    a larger part of the supply chain can be planned against firm orders instead of uncertain forecasts. At the same time,
    decisions in the supply chain that need to be taken based on uncertain forecasts can be delayed to a later point in
    time when the quality of the forecasts is typically higher. Lead time reduction is a powerful lever to reduce risk and
    rigidity in supply chains and to make them more flexible and responsive.

    Lead Time Reduction


                                                                Information flow


         Raw material supplier            Manufacturers / Assemblers                   Retailer                             End - User



                                                                 Material flow


      Push                       Pull                                                                               Buy to order


                      Push                      Pull                                                                Make to order


                                        Push                    Pull                                                Assemble to order


                                                       Push                     Pull                                Make to stock


                                                                       Push                       Pull              Ship to stock


                                                                                                         Decoupling point

     Demand upstream                                                                    Demand downstream
     from decoupling point                                                              from decoupling point
     = uncertain forecast                                                               = firm orders (mainly)


    Frequently rebalancing supply chain tactics
    Another good practice in a volatile environment is to rebalance the supply chain tactics more frequently at the level
    of planning and portfolio policies. For instance, a lot of supply chains currently have more slack capacity that can be
    used as a buffer for (demand or supply) uncertainty rather than using inventory for this purpose. This requires taking
    a more frequent view at planning and service offering policies and to rebalance them more regularly in order to trade
    excess inventory for slack capacity and release cash out of the supply chain. In a volatile supply chain environment,
    regular alignment of planning and service offering policies reduces the risk of experiencing service problems and of
    carrying excess inventory.

    Process flexibility
    Supply chain management processes also have a high potential of contributing to either reducing risk or enhancing
    flexibility in the business. When cash is king, the importance of an effective S&OP process is paramount. But while
    the process seems widely adopted nowadays, recent studies showed that the value delivered often remains limited.
    In times of greater uncertainty, the following practices typically improve the value of the S&OP process: increasing
    the frequency, doing mid-cycle sensitivity checks, accelerating the S&OP process, developing multiple demand/supply
    scenarios, more pro-activeness and collaboration with customers and suppliers, and the incorporation of risk factors.

6
A global manufacturing company used the S&OP                 Risk and Flexibility: communicating vessels
process initially to increase transparency and trust
between Sales & Marketing and Production, making                                                           Supply Chain Volatility

everybody work with the same set of planning numbers.
Typically, the Sales department would prepare monthly
sales forecast figures supported by a strong Sales plan




                                                                                n
                                                                             tio
including promotional actions and the Manufacturing




                                                                                                                                                        Ma
                                                                          Ac




                                                                                                                                                           rk
department would take this set of figures to review


                                                                      tive




                                                                                                                                                             et
                                                                                    E.G.

                                                                     eti




                                                                                                                                                              De
the Master Production Plan and highlight any capacity                               • Lead Time Reduction
                                                                  mp




                                                                                                                                                                 m
                                                                                    • Re-balancing tactics




                                                                                                                                                                  an
issues. But as the market volatility increased in the
                                                                Co
                                                                                                                         Supply




                                                                                                                                                                   d
                                                                                    • Managing supplier risk
past months, the quality of the forecast deteriorated.                                                                    Chain
                                                                                    • Aligning processes,               Flexibility
The increased uncertainty called for a new way of                                     event management                Enhancement
working in the monthly S&OP process. One set of                                     • Enhanced intra & inter
                                                                                      firm collaboration
forecast figures, as best as they could be, was no                                                                              E.G.
longer enough to prepare the company to serve its                                                                               • Volume Flexibility
                                                                                                         Supply Chain           • Mix Flexibility
clients with the required service level at an acceptable                                                 risk reduction         • Supply Chain Integration
cost. The solution consisted in developing multiple                                                                               – Business Model
                                                               Cu




demand plans, with associated probabilities. These                                                                                Redesign
                                                                  rre




                                                                                                                                                                  ce
                                                                                                                                • Multi-scenario planning




                                                                                                                                                                Pri
different demand scenarios were then studied by the
                                                                   cy n




                                                                                                                                                             ity
                                                                     Exc




Supply side of the company, leading to multiple supply




                                                                                                                                                             od
                                                                          ha




                                                                                                                                                         mm
plans. One scenario was chosen as the most probable
                                                                          ng




                                                                                                                                                       Co
                                                                           e




one and followed by the company. Would the market
circumstances change, the company was prepared to
switch to an alternative plan more in line with the new
reality.                                                                                                       Supplier Risk




Winning with your supply chain
in uncertain times

The above mentioned practices are examples of what           Summarizing the top initiatives that will enable you
companies are doing today to mitigate the impact of          to win with your supply chain in these uncertain
increased risk and to enhance flexibility in their supply    times, brings us to the following items:
chains. It can be done at the level of the network, the
operational facilities and at the level of supply chain      •	balancing	planning	and	service	offering	policies	at	the	
policies and processes. The bottom line is that these          granular level of products and customers
practices mitigate business risk, enhance flexibility and    •	providing	Cost-to-Serve	transparency
therefore increase the value of the firm.                    •	applying	strategies	to	reduce	risk	at	the	level	of	the	
                                                               network, the policies and processes in the supply
By embracing the concept of the granular and financial         chain
supply chain and by managing risk and enhancing
supply chain flexibility, there is a clear opportunity for   With state of the art Supply Chain, Pricing, Finance and
businesses to win in the current uncertain environment,      Tax capabilities, Deloitte has gained extensive experience
and sustain their supply chains as a critical asset and      covering a full range of services across the whole value
differentiating factor for success towards the future.       chain to manage supply chain risk and complexity, and
                                                             enhance profitability at a granular level in the business.

                                                                                                                                                                       7
Contacts
For more information, please contact:

Stefan Van Thienen                    Kobe Naesens                           Paul Delesalle
Partner                               Manager                                Director
Supply Chain Strategy &               Supply Chain Strategy &                Supply Chain Strategy &
Operations                            Operations                             Operations
+ 32 476 22 01 03                     + 32 475 30 07 44                      + 32 476 49 50 08
svanthienen@deloitte.com              knaesens@deloitte.com                  pdelesalle@deloitte.com

For further information, visit our website at www.deloitte.be




Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member
firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/ about for a detailed description of the legal
structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.

Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally
connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help
clients succeed wherever they operate. Deloitte’s approximately 170,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence.

© January 2011 Deloitte Consulting
Designed and produced by the Creative Studio at Deloitte, Belgium.

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Winning With Your Supply Chain

  • 1. January 2011 Winning with your Supply Chain Strategies for creating value, and preparing for the rebound The past years have been volatile for many supply The signs are there that the much expected rebound chains. Whereas before the steep and unprecedented will challenge and confront supply chains with decline in demand, the creation of shareholder value higher demand, and this at unprecedented speed, was significantly driven by a continuous quest for in smaller quantities, and in environments with growth, business leaders in a ‘no growth’ environment less inventory and slack capacity. It is clear that must focus on the remaining levers for value creation. uncertainty and volatility are here to stay and that The mantra in many businesses has changed on very supply chain leaders will have to define and implement short notice from a quest for growth into a quest strategies to manage the associated risks. But the for cash, operating margin and asset efficiency, in an current and future volatile business environment environment that is exposed to significantly higher also constitutes an opportunity to win for those levels of risk and uncertainty than ever before. businesses that develop supply chain tactics to reduce risk, or offset the risk levels in their supply chains, Shareholder value drivers…in uncertain times by incorporating additional agility and flexibility. In this paper, we develop a point of view on what Revenue Not/Less available supply chain and business leaders in manufacturing Growth and consumer industries should do to create Shareholder Operating value and to prepare for the much expected Value Margin upturn in times of increased uncertainty. Focus Asset 20 Efficiency 22 15 35 30 34 80 72 77 65 68 36
  • 2. everything that is structural in the supply chain: the How does supply chain distribution network, the manufacturing footprint, asset allocation policies for products and customers, management contribute to value decision making about outsourcing, and aligning the trading relations between the various entities in the creation in the business? supply chain to optimize additional variables such as for instance tax in the equation. Overall, it’s all about doing the right things, focusing on supply chain efficiency and Supply chain management basically contributes to effectiveness. value creation in the business through optimization and alignment of structures, policies and processes: Processes contribute to optimal cost, cash, efficiency and maximum profit by doing things right, conceptually • by providing cost and cash optimal network structures and content-wise, by focusing on the flow of value to at the level of the inbound supply chain, and in the customer and by delivering the aspired business manufacturing and distribution (FOOTPRINT) results with as little waste as possible. • by aligning processes in planning, sourcing, making and delivering (PROCESSES) Aligning and optimizing the supply chain footprint and • by aligning planning and inventory deployment processes, is very often an ideal starting point towards policies that balance service, cost, inventory and supply chain excellence. It will deliver cost, cash and capacity assets (BALANCE), and profit benefits to the business in aggregate, meaning for • by providing TRANSPARENCY at a granular level of all customers and for all products at the same time. customers and products, for portfolio management and profitability improvement in the business. Managing the supply chain for value creation in the business Footprint Balance Transparency Processes Operations strategy & Strategy inventory deployment Cost-to-serve PLAN tactics Portfolio complexity & Footprint & Network Balancing service mix, SOURCE/PROCURE profitability management assets and cost Spend visibility & TCO Strategic Outsourcing MAKE Improving the balance by transparency aligning influence factors: service offering policies, Strategic sourcing and Tax aligned enhancing responsiveness supplier relationship DELIVER supply chain & reducing variability management RETURN The financial supply chain: granular business performance improvement The foundation of the supply chain: aggregate business performance improvement Cost, profit & cash The foundations The supply chain footprint and the supply chain The next level processes basically constitute the foundation or Finding the right balance and providing transparency architecture of the supply chain. When they are for profitability management are competences that are optimized and aligned, they ought to be robust for situated at a more granular level in the supply chain, and the medium term, say the next 3-5 years. Footprint is are indicators for a more advanced type of supply chain management in which cost and cash performance is 2
  • 3. further improved by optimizing profitability at the level all of this complexity was added in a profitable way, of individual customers, products and product groups. and it is not uncommon to find out as a result of a cost-to-serve initiative, that a significant portion The balancing act of the profit potential - ranging from 30%-50% - is Finding a balance is about making decisions where to eroded by unprofitable products and offerings. For deploy inventory or slack capacity as a shock absorber companies with average supply chain maturity, for the demand and supply side variability in the supply integrated Cost-to-Serve initiatives often show chain. It is also about deciding how much buffer in potential to improve absolute EBIT% margin with a terms of inventory or capacity is needed to balance range of an additional 0,5% - 2,0%. service requirements with cost and cash. Finding an optimal and profitable balance between these very often Businesses that invest in supply chain competences to conflicting requirements is probably one of the most ‘Balance the Dynamics’ or to ‘Provide Cost-to-Serve important supply chain competences in businesses that Transparency’ are leaders in an evolution towards a are exposed to volatility. more advanced type of supply chain management in For companies with average supply chain maturity, which business performance is improved by fine tuning it is not uncommon to reduce total inventory the supply chain at a granular level. It is a clear example levels by 5-20% with a service improvement or a of what is commonly referred to as ‘the Financial cost reduction on top, by optimizing the planning Supply Chain’, and constitutes a transformation to and inventory deployment tactics at the level of a more mature type of supply chain function in the individual products, product groups, distribution business, reaching out to, and facilitating the business channels and customers. performance improvement dialogue with the Finance and with the Sales & Marketing functions. Research Creating transparency conducted by Insead and Stanford University on the Creating Transparency is about supply chain link between Financial and Supply Chain Performance, professionals delivering cost-to-serve transparency indicated that companies with higher levels of supply to the business in order to facilitate profitability and chain maturity also outperform their competitors portfolio complexity decisions at the granular level of financially. products and customers. Cost-to-Serve in this respect is a collective term for methodologies that reveal the true cost of processes and activities in manufacturing (Cost-to-Make), Logistics (Cost-to-Fulfill), and selling Supply Chain Leaders show (Cost-to-Sell), by using pragmatic activity based costing principles in a supply chain and commercial context. significantly higher Market At the inbound side of the supply chain, this cost transparency could be called Cost-to-Own (or more Capitalization Growth Rates commonly known as Total Cost of Ownership), which is an important lever to enhance spend and cost efficiency. (Insead/Standford University , The link between Supply Chain Granular Cost-to-Serve transparency is generally used and Financial Performance) to define priorities for cost reduction and process improvement initiatives, to make decisions about A regional consumer business company was able to product and customer portfolio’s and to develop and realize significant profitability improvements by applying implement service offering policies and trade terms that the above mentioned principles. Through alignment drive customer behavior in a way favorable to overall of planning policies and parameters in line with business profitability. volatility in supply and demand, significant inventory reductions were achieved in several countries with In the current uncertain business environment, stockholding responsibility. An alignment initiative of methodologies that align the supply chain at the lot sizes in the factories at the various levels within the granular level (individual products and customers), product hierarchy (recipies, semi-finished products, probably comprise the biggest opportunity for profit and finished products) revealed potential for longer runs, cash improvement. The rationale is that in the past especially for those products that triggered a major years with relatively high growth rates, companies portion of costs in changeover and product waste. have added significant amounts of complexity in Several unprofitable SKU’s were rationalized following terms of products and service offering policies. Not a Cost-to-Make and Cost-to-Serve initiative. Overall this 3
  • 4. company was able to significantly reduce unprofitable demand volatility, supply uncertainty, currency exchange SKU’s, changeovers, and waste, resulting in a reduction risk etc.). In a perfectly predictable world without supply of manufacturing cost by 10%, in inventory by 40%, chain risk, there is no need for flexibility and hence the and in an absolute EBIT% margin increase by 1,5%. value of flexibility and agility enhancing investments is limited. Risk and Flexibility: communicating vessels Impact of the current volatile and uncertain Supply Chain Flexibility Enhancement environment on supply chain value Supply Chain Risk Reduction creation: understanding risk, and the value of Flexibility however comes with a cost, as it very often means adding slack and redundancy in a flexibility. focused and useful way. More and more companies however, look at it as an option that creates value to the business, and that creates more value the more volatile and uncertain the business The most relevant learning of the current downturn environment becomes. is about understanding how risk impacts supply chain Making decisions under uncertainty and understanding performance and more in particular how this impact the value of flexibility has its roots in real-options can be reversed by balancing or offsetting risks with theory. This theory makes explicit that flexibility is more supply chain flexibility and agility. Risk and flexibility in important when uncertainly and volatility are high. And this respect have to be seen as communicating vessels more specifically it provides a framework to estimate or forces that have to be balanced. The requirement to the value of flexibility. In footprint optimization or enhance and invest in supply chain flexibility and agility, asset rationalization programs for instance, lacking and the business value that derives from it, is directly the capability of being able to appraise the value of correlated to the level of residual uncertainty and related flexibility, leads to suboptimal decision making. Scenarios risks a supply chain is exposed to (e.g. in terms of with additional flexibility in terms of volume, product 4
  • 5. mix or network flexibility would only be burdened with often boils down to an increased level of integration the additional cost of the flexibility without being able or regionalization of the supply chain. In mature to account for the value that derives from it. Especially in business environments, integrating or regionalizing the environments with a lot of uncertainty, this will give rise supply chain provides opportunities to take advantage to suboptimal decision making at the level of preferred of consolidated services and synergies, to drive out footprint scenarios. redundancy and increase efficiency. In addition, more With uncertainty and volatility expected to stay, integrated supply chain structures are more capable to what are the options for supply chain leaders? Using leverage network flexibility potential. the analogy of the communicating vessels, there are two potential strategies: Network flexibility • Managing and reducing supply chain risk: e.g. At the level of the supply chain network, it is often • starting a formal supplier risk management about making the hidden flexibility transparent by program integrating information from around the network • increasing demand planning accuracy based on a holistic view of the supply chain. Hidden • Managing and enhancing supply chain flexibility: e.g. flexibility in practice can take different forms: alternative • investing in additional tooling and assets to sources of supply, alternative locations to manufacture enhance mix flexibility on a production line, and to deliver. In complex and interdependent • finetuning deployment tactics at a more granular supply chains (complex routings, multiple steps with level, and doing it more frequently interdependencies, limited slack capacity and excess inventories), the transparency and the flexibility The section below will provide more examples on leveraged by a central supply chain entrepreneur brings how supply chain risk can be reduced or supply chain added value by supporting better decision making in flexibility can be enhanced. short and medium term sourcing, product and customer allocation, and inventory deployment tactics throughout the network. In general the experience is that supply How to reduce risk and enhance chain integration promotes more (cost and cash) optimal and faster decision making by leveraging hidden flexibility in the supply chain? network flexibility. This effect is particularly strong in intensely volatile environments with many degrees of freedom to manage. Very often, leveraging this hidden network flexibility and Enhancing flexibility and reducing risk can be achieved creating a centralized supply chain function requires a in different ways. It can be done within the supply chain redesign of the business model. Therefore it is complex, network, within the 4 walls of the operational units, and but it is often less expensive than building additional within supply chain management processes. flexibility within the walls of individual operational facilities in response to market demand, supplier risk, In the current uncertain times, managing the supply currency exchange and commodity price volatility. chain is all about managing for cash with a strong focus on inventories, and cost reduction in the business. On the Inbound side of the Supply Chain, the And most businesses across a variety of industries contemporary Supply Management environment is have started with the obvious things, by streamlining characterized by a newly discovered recognition that their G&A, by aggressively tackling external spend, by some of the major risks an organization faces may streamlining their organizations etc. come from the supplier base. Proactive management of these risks can demonstrate the strategic perspective There are companies however, that have realized that and value, as well as the professional competence there is an opportunity to go beyond the obvious by of the Supply Management function. The increasing taking a multi-tiered approach to the downturn. These dependence on suppliers makes the traditional ‘laissez companies take advantage of the current restructuring faire’ approach dangerous, and has caused leading friendly environment (suppliers, unions, regulators, enterprises to start investing in Supplier Relationship employees, etc.) to take an extended enterprise view Management (SRM),a discipline that ensures the and redesign their business model. In the more mature enterprise actively manages its relationships with and low growth business environments, this very strategic suppliers. 5
  • 6. Reducing lead times Within the 4 walls of operational or manufacturing facilities, flexibility can be enhanced by investing in additional tooling or assets to enhance product mix flexibility on existing manufacturing assets, by negotiating more flexible labor or supplier agreements, or by investing in lead time reduction efforts. Reducing supply chain lead times through enterprise lean six sigma efforts for instance, very often allows moving the decoupling point or the push-pull boundary in the supply chain, physically to more upstream levels. This typically results in a situation where relatively a larger part of the supply chain can be planned against firm orders instead of uncertain forecasts. At the same time, decisions in the supply chain that need to be taken based on uncertain forecasts can be delayed to a later point in time when the quality of the forecasts is typically higher. Lead time reduction is a powerful lever to reduce risk and rigidity in supply chains and to make them more flexible and responsive. Lead Time Reduction Information flow Raw material supplier Manufacturers / Assemblers Retailer End - User Material flow Push Pull Buy to order Push Pull Make to order Push Pull Assemble to order Push Pull Make to stock Push Pull Ship to stock Decoupling point Demand upstream Demand downstream from decoupling point from decoupling point = uncertain forecast = firm orders (mainly) Frequently rebalancing supply chain tactics Another good practice in a volatile environment is to rebalance the supply chain tactics more frequently at the level of planning and portfolio policies. For instance, a lot of supply chains currently have more slack capacity that can be used as a buffer for (demand or supply) uncertainty rather than using inventory for this purpose. This requires taking a more frequent view at planning and service offering policies and to rebalance them more regularly in order to trade excess inventory for slack capacity and release cash out of the supply chain. In a volatile supply chain environment, regular alignment of planning and service offering policies reduces the risk of experiencing service problems and of carrying excess inventory. Process flexibility Supply chain management processes also have a high potential of contributing to either reducing risk or enhancing flexibility in the business. When cash is king, the importance of an effective S&OP process is paramount. But while the process seems widely adopted nowadays, recent studies showed that the value delivered often remains limited. In times of greater uncertainty, the following practices typically improve the value of the S&OP process: increasing the frequency, doing mid-cycle sensitivity checks, accelerating the S&OP process, developing multiple demand/supply scenarios, more pro-activeness and collaboration with customers and suppliers, and the incorporation of risk factors. 6
  • 7. A global manufacturing company used the S&OP Risk and Flexibility: communicating vessels process initially to increase transparency and trust between Sales & Marketing and Production, making Supply Chain Volatility everybody work with the same set of planning numbers. Typically, the Sales department would prepare monthly sales forecast figures supported by a strong Sales plan n tio including promotional actions and the Manufacturing Ma Ac rk department would take this set of figures to review tive et E.G. eti De the Master Production Plan and highlight any capacity • Lead Time Reduction mp m • Re-balancing tactics an issues. But as the market volatility increased in the Co Supply d • Managing supplier risk past months, the quality of the forecast deteriorated. Chain • Aligning processes, Flexibility The increased uncertainty called for a new way of event management Enhancement working in the monthly S&OP process. One set of • Enhanced intra & inter firm collaboration forecast figures, as best as they could be, was no E.G. longer enough to prepare the company to serve its • Volume Flexibility Supply Chain • Mix Flexibility clients with the required service level at an acceptable risk reduction • Supply Chain Integration cost. The solution consisted in developing multiple – Business Model Cu demand plans, with associated probabilities. These Redesign rre ce • Multi-scenario planning Pri different demand scenarios were then studied by the cy n ity Exc Supply side of the company, leading to multiple supply od ha mm plans. One scenario was chosen as the most probable ng Co e one and followed by the company. Would the market circumstances change, the company was prepared to switch to an alternative plan more in line with the new reality. Supplier Risk Winning with your supply chain in uncertain times The above mentioned practices are examples of what Summarizing the top initiatives that will enable you companies are doing today to mitigate the impact of to win with your supply chain in these uncertain increased risk and to enhance flexibility in their supply times, brings us to the following items: chains. It can be done at the level of the network, the operational facilities and at the level of supply chain • balancing planning and service offering policies at the policies and processes. The bottom line is that these granular level of products and customers practices mitigate business risk, enhance flexibility and • providing Cost-to-Serve transparency therefore increase the value of the firm. • applying strategies to reduce risk at the level of the network, the policies and processes in the supply By embracing the concept of the granular and financial chain supply chain and by managing risk and enhancing supply chain flexibility, there is a clear opportunity for With state of the art Supply Chain, Pricing, Finance and businesses to win in the current uncertain environment, Tax capabilities, Deloitte has gained extensive experience and sustain their supply chains as a critical asset and covering a full range of services across the whole value differentiating factor for success towards the future. chain to manage supply chain risk and complexity, and enhance profitability at a granular level in the business. 7
  • 8. Contacts For more information, please contact: Stefan Van Thienen Kobe Naesens Paul Delesalle Partner Manager Director Supply Chain Strategy & Supply Chain Strategy & Supply Chain Strategy & Operations Operations Operations + 32 476 22 01 03 + 32 475 30 07 44 + 32 476 49 50 08 svanthienen@deloitte.com knaesens@deloitte.com pdelesalle@deloitte.com For further information, visit our website at www.deloitte.be Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/ about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help clients succeed wherever they operate. Deloitte’s approximately 170,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence. © January 2011 Deloitte Consulting Designed and produced by the Creative Studio at Deloitte, Belgium.