Presentation by Kevin Parks (Alberta Energy Regulator | Alberta Geological Survey) at the iMOD International User Day, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2017. Tuesday, 31 October 2017, Delft.

1. Assessing Consequences of
Forecasted Groundwater
Demand for Shale Gas,
Dr. Kevin Parks, Chief Geologist

2. Acknowledgements
This work represents the effort of over 15 staff
at Alberta Geological Survey (AGS), Alberta
Energy Regulator (AER): Reserves Group, and
Deltares BGS.
This work is a prototype. Work continues on
application in regulation.
Thank you to AER, Deltares, and TKI-NL for
funding and support.
2

3. My Talk
Outline
Alberta’s Shale-Gas Endowment
Water Demand Forecasting
Groundwater-Supply Response:
Consequences, Choices, Management
with iMOD - Delft-FEWS
3

4. Alberta’s Shale Gas:
Resource Endowment
4

5. Alberta Sedimentary Basin
5
The Alberta Basin is the main
part of the composite Western
Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

6. Duvernay Formation: Shale
Deposited ~380 MY
6

7. Duvernay Formation
7

8. 8
Gas: 353-540 Tcf in place
NGL: 8-16 Bbbl in place
Oil: 44-83 Bbbl in place

9. Water Demand Forecasting
9

10. Drilling Activity
10

11. 11
Drilling goes down, but
water use goes up

12. 12
Water Intensity Grow in
Shale Areas With Time

13. 13
Shale-Gas Revolution!

14. 14
Reserves Evaluation
Look at water demand to date
needed to create existing
reserves.
101
1
273
Reserves (MMboe)
Developed
Developed Non-
Producing
Undeveloped

15. Historical water demand
15

16. 16
Geological Prospectivity
Size of prize = Water demand.

17. 17
Expected Fluid Regions
Type of Fluid = where
demand will occur.

18. Future Demand = Size of Prize
18
1676
864
Resource (MMboe)
Contingent
Prospective

19. Appraising Local Stress-
Scenarios: Local Demand
Outlooks
19
Price-driven 5 year drilling outlook

20. 20
5-Year Water Demand

21. Groundwater-Supply Response:
Consequences, Choices,
Management with iMOD
21

22. 22
Regional Hydrostratigraphy
3D Geomodel

23. Stress Scenarios in iMOD
23
Groundwater simulations

24. Aquifer-yield Continuum Concept
Aquifer-yield continuum as a guide and typology for science-based groundwater
management by Pierce et al., 2013, Hydrogeology Journal 21(2): p 331-340.
Permissive
Sustained
Yield (PSY)
Maximum
Sustained
Yield (MSY)
Safe
Yield
(SY)
Permissive
Mining
Yield (PMY)
Maximum
Mining
Yield (MMY)
GroundwaterYield
100% of recharge
100% of aquifer volume
Management Framework

25. Consequence Sets
Permissive
Sustained Yield
Maximum
Sustained
Yield
Safe Yield
Permissive Mining Yield
Maximum Mining Yield

26. Appraising Supply Capacity
in iMOD - Delft-FEWS
26

27. Next Steps: Policy Assurance
27
High-
Quality
Non-Saline
Water
Alternative Non-
Saline Water
Saline Groundwater and
Produced Water
Non-Water Technologies
Least
Preferred
Most
Preferred

28. 28
Regulating Resource Development
Level,L
Time, t
Upper
Limit
Lower
Limit
Preferred
Range

29. Thank You