A presentation from Professor Jillian Anable on behalf of the CREDS Transport theme at the DecarboN8 Workshop, 'Decarbonising Transport: Connecting Carbon Targets to Action' held at the Institute for Transport Studies on 07/01/20

1. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
The Carbon Briefing
Jillian Anable on behalf of CREDSTransportTheme
PRESENTATIONAT DECARBON8 MEETING, 7TH JAN 2020

2. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Private transport & C02: an
uneven story
Across:
• journey purposes
• settlement type and region
• income groups
• age groups and cohorts
• Who and where changes the most over time

3. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Current emissions from the transport sector
Source: BEIS (2019) 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures
=34% total UK
MtCO2e (2017)

4. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
UK domestic and international
emissions by mode (1990 – 2016)
3% decrease in
car emissions
(official (not real-
world) figures)
International
emissions have
more than
doubled
65% increase in
van emissions
(official (not real-
world) figures)

5. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Proportion of miles undertaken by each journey purpose*
Leisure travel = 40% miles
(or 50+% if incl. shopping)
NTS (England) 2018
*surface modes only

6. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Distribution of trips and miles by journey length
-65%
-31%
-1%
-1%
-0.79%
-0.04%
18%
46%
7%
12%
14%
2%
-75% -60% -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75%
up to 5
5 - 35
35 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 300
300 to 1000
Trips % Miles %
~ 3% trips do ~30% of total mileage
(2017, England)
Long DistanceTrips (LDT) = >50 miles
Annual per capita mobility in
England
Overall LDT % LDT
Miles 6,600 1,900 ~30%
Trips 780 19 ~3%
Source: NTS 2015 - 2017, pooled weighted N=46,603

7. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Below 2
miles
2 to 4 4 to 8 8 to 16 16 to 35 35 to 50 50 to 100 100 to
150
150 to
250
250 to
400
Above
400
other
leisure
commuting
business
Nearly 2/3
of LDT miles
are for
leisure
purposes
Miles undertaken by different purposes and trip lengths
Source: NTS 2015 - 2017, pooled weighted N=46,603

8. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Recent uptick in trips…

9. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
25%
17%
35%
6%
6%
4%
3% 3%
1% 0%
International air trips
by UK residents
Approx 90% of
trips are for
leisure
Source: CAA Consumer
Surveys, ONS
International
Passenger Survey
22%
26%
32%
5%
5%
3%
3%
2% 1% 1%
Spain
Five closest European countries (Ireland,
France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands)
Other Europe
North America
Asia
Africa (including Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia)
South America (including Caribbean)
Middle East
Australasia
Other (including 'stay on board' cruises)
Source: ONS International
Passenger Survey data on
overseas trips by air by UK
residents, 2017, all purposes)

10. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Hypothesis: Everyone is flying more
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 &
over
VisitsbyUKresidents
2007 2017
Data from International Passenger Survey
for trips made by air. Data for overseas
trips by UK residents for all modes, and
CAA DPS amalgamated airports data for
UK residents shows the same trend.
The majority of growth is
coming from those aged
16-34 and 65+.
Trips by 0-15 year olds
are stable/declining – so
the growth is not family
holidays.

11. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Age groups also differ by journey purpose
The growth in travel by 65+ group is almost all holidays. There has been growth
in visits to friends and relatives for all age groups, particularly those aged 16-54.
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Business Holiday Miscellaneous Study VFR
ChangeinvisitsbyUK
residentsbyair2007-2017
(millions)
0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & over

12. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Urban vs rural
Source: Road Traffic Estimates GB (2018)
In 2015/16 people living in
rural villages, hamlets and
isolated dwellings travelled
10,200 miles on average
compared with 5,200 in urban
conurbation and 6,600 in
England as a whole.
Source: DfT National Travel Survey Table NTS9904

13. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Geographical variations
CO2 emissions from private cars (2011)
Average
mileage per
private car per
annum (2011)

14. www.creds.ac.ukTRANSPORT & MOBILITY
Mobility by income
NTS (UK) 2008
*surface modes only