February 2018 Economic Update Q4 GDP: 2.6% Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (unchanged) Nonfarm Payroll: +200,000 jobs Nonfarm Payroll Revisions: November was revised down from +252,000 to +216,000 December was revised up from +148,000 to +160,000 Combined revisions were 24,000 less than previously reported After revisions, job gains have averaged 192,000 over the last 3 months.

1. 2/5/2018 © 2018 CareerBuilder
Economic Update
February 2018
Mark Landwer
Executive Vice President

2. 4th Qtr. GDP: +2.6% (Advance Estimate)
SUMMARY & GDP
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The Numbers: January Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal)
WAGES: 2.9%
The average hourly paycheck for private-sector workers grew 2.9% in January from a year earlier. That marked the best annual
gain for a month since June 2009, the month the recession ended. The strong increase suggests employers are paying more to
attract workers at a time when unemployment is historically low. Still, the latest gain is slightly below prerecession rates. The year
before the recession began in late 2007, wages rose at better than 3%. One caveat: The average workweek decreased last month,
so weekly paychecks are growing at a slower rate than hourly wages. For the month, hourly wages grew 9 cents, or 0.34%, in
January from a month earlier.
MONTHLY JOB GROWTH: 200,000
U.S. employers added 200,000 jobs in January, starting 2018 on a better pace than the prior year. Employers added an average of
181,000 a month in 2017. Construction, manufacturing and restaurants had strong job growth. Government payrolls grew by
4,000 last month. Overall, the pace of hiring has gradually slowed each year since 2014, consistent with a tighter labor market in
the later stages of an economic expansion.
ANNUAL REVISION: 2.173 million
Friday’s report showed the economy created 118,000 more jobs in 2017 than initially estimated. The Labor Department report
included annual revisions and other routine adjustments to data in the January release. After those revisions, it showed
employment growth for all of last year of 2.173 million compared with an estimate of 2.055 million reported last month. The
report also showed 145.969 million total jobs on payrolls as of March 2017, the month in which the data is benchmarked to tax
records. That’s a relatively tiny upward adjustment of 146,000.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.1%
The jobless rate remained at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month, matching the lowest level since late 2000. The
unemployment rate hasn’t fallen below 4% since December 2000, when it was 3.9%. January’s rate was below what the Federal
Reserve projects will be the economy’s long-run average, suggesting a tight labor market. In January 2017, the unemployment rate
was 4.8%.
BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT: 7.7%
The unemployment rate for black Americans rose by 0.9 percentage point in January to 7.7%. It was the highest rate since April.
The rate in December, which was touted by the White House, was the lowest on records back to the 1970s. Unemployment rates
for racial groups can be volatile from month to month due to small sample sizes. The unemployment rate for Hispanic or Latino
Americans was 5%, just above a record low. More broadly, the data suggest the economic recovery is paying dividends for two
groups that disproportionately suffered in the wake of the Great Recession. Still, the unemployment rates for those groups
remained well above the rate for whites, 3.5% last month.
2016 2017
Components
of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Consumer
Spending
(Personal
Consumption
Expenditures)
1.23% 2.57% 1.92% 1.99% 1.32% 2.24% 1.49% 2.58%
Business
(Gross Private
Domestic
Investment)
-0.68% -0.45% 0.40% 1.34% -0.20% 0.64% 1.19% 0.60%
Net Exports
(Exports-
Imports)
-0.28% 0.28% 0.36% -1.61% 0.22% 0.21% 0.36% -1.13%
Government 0.32% -0.16% 0.09% 0.03% -0.11% -0.03% 0.12% 0.50%
Total GDP 0.59% 2.24% 2.77% 1.75% 1.23% 3.06% 3.16% 2.55%
*Inventories -0.64% -0.67% 0.16% 1.06% -1.46% 0.12% 0.79% -0.67%

3. © 2015 CareerBuilder3
Unemployment Rate: 4.1% unchanged
Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by
total non farm payroll employment
Temp Employment
Temporary help services Added 1,800 jobs.
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?
“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm
Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by
three months when the economy is emerging from a recession
and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.”
American Staffing Association
US Employment Situation
Temp Penetration Rate: 2.03% unchanged Job Loss/Gain: 200,000 Jobs
I
Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association
Nonfarm Payroll –
Job Growth Details
Jobs Added/Lost
Private Sector 196,000
Government Sector 4,000
Total 200,000
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Job Gains Change from
Previous Month
Construction 36,000
Leisure and Hospitality 35,000
Professional & Business Services 23,000
Retail Trade 15,400
Manufacturing 15,000
Financial Activities 9,000
Government 4,000
Education & Health Services 38,000
- Healthcare 20,600
- Education 11,700
- Social Assistance 5,200

4. © 2018 CareerBuilder
4
GDP Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Getting Paid
Wages, Change from a year earlier
Projections, Trends & Wages
Source: Wall Street Journal
Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report,
Unemployment Rate Projections
Survey of Economist (Wall Street Journal)
Out of Work (Alternative Measures of Unemployment)
Alternate measures of the unemployment and under employment rate