2015 Tierra Verde Market Analysis

IN Exclusive PARTNERSHIP
With
2015 Tierra Verde
Real Estate Market Analysis
Dan Reichard, Realtor®
www.gulfandbayfl.com
dan@gulfandbayfl.com
727-771-3834
Prepared and presented by
February 1, 2016

2016 © Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS Page 2 of 26
Introduction
Broad data analyses of real estate markets
are readily available from numerous
sources. But in-depth data indicators
of market movement on a local/
neighborhood level is hard to come
by unless you develop your own. This
targetted analysis digs into the data for
2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012,
2013, 2014 and 2015 specifically for Tierra
Verde to draw a clearer picture of where
we were, where we are, and perhaps where
we’re headed. To do so, it is important
to include data from as far back as 2007
and 2008 to measure progress from the
days prior to the historic real estate market
collapse.
This summary attempts to make the data
relevant to individual owners on Tierra
Verde by looking at sales activity divided
into six core real estate market segments
on our island:
• off-water flats (condos),
• on-water flats (condos),
• off-water townhomes,
• on-water townhomes,
• off-water single family homes, and
• on-water single family homes.
Sales of vacant land are not included.
Although there are legal distinctions
between “townhouse” and
“condominium,” for the purpose of this
analysis a townhouse is considered to
be a multi-level residence located in a
community that offers common elements
for the exclusive enjoyment of residents
in that community. “Flats” are single-

Overview
level condos in a community that offers
common elements for the exclusive
enjoyment of residents in that community.
I’ve made this distinction because it is my
experience that buyers pay more attention
to layout and functionality of residential
space than they do to legal definitions of
the property style. Appraisers also will give
more consideration to the physical layout
of units than their legal organizational
structure.
Likewise, for the purposes of this analysis a
condominium or townhouse is considered
to be “on water” only if a broad view
of the water can be seen from inside
the residence. So, if a condominium
or townhouse is located in a waterfront
community but the water can not be seen
from within the residence, it is categorized
as “off water.”
In 2015, 139 open market residential
real estate sales occurred on Tierra
Verde – a 8% decrease from 2014 with a
$30,589,500
$31,470,325
$35,788,612
$43,378,850
$60,117,305
$65,762,162
$61,087,880
$73,911,190
$71,402,492
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Transaction Dollar Volume
+38%
+21%

Overview
corresponding 3% decrease in total dollar
volume to $71,402,492. (“Open market”
residential real estate refers to properties
that were offered for sale to the general
public and not those that occurred in
“closed” transactions between family
members, friends, etc.).
Of all market segements, only on-
water and off-water single family homes
managed to post increases in the number
of units sold in 2015, although median
price per unit fell in both segments.
Conversely, on-water flats and on-water
townhomes posted declines in the number
of units sold and increases to median sales
price for units in the segments. So, as
48
55
86 87
114
138
131
151
139
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde: Number of Transactions
+30%
+2%
Sales volume in dollars was 8%
lower in 2015 than in 2014
but still more than 14% higher
than in 2013

Overview
you review the data in this report, all data
points for a given market segment must be
taken into account in assessing its overall
performance in 2015.
This analysis should not be used to
estimate market value of any specific
property. Real estate is unique and
differences in market values reflect
that fact. Flats, townhomes and single
family homes are very different products
from one another, each with its own
benefits and drawbacks. Likewise, two
different properties within a market will
differ in their square footage, quality of
upgrades, acreage, and other amenities
like boat slips, garages, etc. In our unique
community, water views (and quality of
water view) and water frontage also are
important elements in determining market
value. However, it is not practical to parse
the data in this analysis beyond the six
categories described.
If you would like a detailed market value
analysis for a specific property, please feel
free to contact me at dan@gulfandbayfl.
com or 727-771-3834.
As you review this report all
data points for a given market
segment must be taken into
account in assessing its overall
performance in 2015.

Methods
All data in this analysis was culled from the
My Florida Regional MLS. Each transaction
was evaluated to confirm accuracy in
regard to location of the property and
character of residential style (e.g. on-water,
off-water, etc.). Corrections to the data
were made as needed.
In the following data analysis the “median”
is used as the metric to identify trends
rather than “average” for greater reliability
in what the numbers tell us. Our island
contains such a diverse spectrum of
residential properties — everything from
multi-million dollar waterfront estates on
Oceanview Drive to 1-bedroom off-water
condominiums elsewhere on the island
— the median sales price, for example, is
much more meaningful than the average
sales price.
The median tells us the precise mid-point
of a range of numbers, i.e. there is an equal
number of records that are higher than the
median and an equal number of records
that are lower than the median. That
means if one or more multi-million dollar
estates (single family homes) is sold in a
given year, the median sales price does not
skew upward in the same way the average
sales price does. So, it is important to use
median instead of average so we are not
misled by what the data is telling us.
And finally, this report does not use data
based on square footage because, some
properties are conveyed with physical
assets that others do not — e.g. boat slips,
garages vs. carports, etc. — that are not
captured by square footage data.

Off-water Flats(one-level condos)
Tyically the number of off-water
condominiums that sells in a given year
is too small to identify trends, although
2014 was an exception. Off-water
condominiums as a whole represent
perhaps the smallest segment of residential
properties on the island, and 2015 saw
a return to what may be normal levels of
activity in this segment.
For the few properties that sold in this
market segment, we saw a tightening of
the list price to sales price diffential and
a slight uptick in the medial sales price.
However the median days on market for
these few properties increased substantially
to 149 days.
2014 © by Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS January 22, 2014
3 3
7
4
2
3
5
13
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Number of Transactions

$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Median List vs. Sale Price
Median List Price Median Sale Price
88.89%
95.05%
93.81%
84.42%
86.86%
94.47%
93.01%
95.07%
94.40%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
92.00%
94.00%
96.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Percent of Sale Price vs. List Price

$603,900
$530,000
$1,138,000
$542,200
$330,000
$402,000
$778,000
$2,065,333
$865,400
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Transaction Dollar Volume
156
140
115
142.5 144.5
197
70
85
149
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Median Days on Market

On-water Flats(one-level condos)
On-water condominiums have the most
diverse spectrum of characteristics of any
real estate market segment in this report.
For example, sold properties in this analysis
ranged in square footage from 790 sq.
ft. (1-bedroom, 1.5-bath) to 2,609 sq.
ft. (3-bedroom, 3-bath). These factors
weigh heavily when determining a specific
property’s market value.
There were 31 sales of on-water condos in
2015 representing a 14% decrease from
2014. However, the total dollar volume
and median price per unit both increased
in 2015 (less than 1% and 12.5% increases
respectively). The median number of days
the properties were on the market also fell
by 17% to 79 days.
Taken together these data indicate strong
performance for on-water flats despite the
decrease in the number of units sold in
2015.
15
17
24
18
28
33
25
36
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Number of Transactions

2015 © by Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS February 1, 2016
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Median List vs. Sale Price
92.32%
87.97%
92.37%
77.22%
96.95%
100.03%
92.64% 94.54% 93.86%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Percent of Sale Price vs. List Price

$9,198,000
$8,583,900
$7,299,597
$7,380,400
$11,754,800
$12,655,763
$8,914,200
$13,845,507
$13,939,250
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Transaction Dollar Volume
192
110
149
182
121.5 119
54
95
79
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Median Days on Market

Off-water Townhomes
The year before last was a very strong
year for off-water townhomes, so it may
not be a huge surprise that 2015 yielded
somewhat of a rebalancing of the market
for this segment. The number of units
sold, total dollar volume and median sales
price all declined year over year, and the
median days on market increased 59% to
115 days. However, the decline in median
sales price was fairly modest at just under
4%. This level of performance for off-water
townhomes may be explained in part by a
slight increase in the number of distressed
sales (5 forclosures and 1 short sale) in
2015.
Still, in terms of median price per unit and
aside from 2014, sales performance for this
segement in 2015 was substantially better
than any other years since 2007. So, in
short, it is fair to view 2015 as evidence of
a stable market for off-water townhomes.
7
8
18
11
18
26
29
26
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Number of Transactions

Off-water Townhomes
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Median List vs. Sale Price
105%
92%
90% 90%
97%
96% 97% 96%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: List vs. Sale Price Percentage

Off-water Townhomes
$2,199,900
$1,868,000
$3,550,100
$2,347,300
$3,520,105
$5,358,999
$5,918,800
$6,850,050
$5,545,317
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
$8,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Transaction Dollar Volume
32
58.5
64.5
140
114
64.5
69
72.5
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Median Days on Market

On-water Townhomes
Total on-water townhomes sold in 2015
remained fairly constant with just two
fewer sold than the year before. Total
dollar volume for the segment decreased
by a little more than 6%, but the median
sales price increased by about 5%.
Also, the list price/sold price differential
tightened up to a difference of about
5.1%, and the median days on market
plunged by 43% to just 62.5 days. This
is the fifth year in a row that the on-water
townhome market segment has shown
steady improvement in median sold price
and posted its best year since 2008.
As I stated last year, “steady” is a desireable
characteristic of any real estate market.
6
9
7
9
7
27
21
28
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Number of Transactions

On-water Townhomes
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Median List vs. Sale Price
91.53% 91.31%
92.49%
95.24% 95.38%
98.75%
96.00%
94.19%
94.90%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
92.00%
94.00%
96.00%
98.00%
100.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: List vs. Sale Price Differential

On-water Townhomes
$3,179,750
$3,692,500
$1,768,405
$3,446,000
$2,300,000
$8,599,900
$9,048,530
$11,296,150
$10,591,325
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Transaction Dollar Volume
136
87
139
105
100
89
129
110.5
62.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Median Days on Market

Off-water Single Family
There is no way to sugar-coat it: a
“steady” market for off-water single
family homes in 2013 was replaced with
robust increases in 2014. But in 2015 this
segment saw lackluster performance with
a 66% increase in the number of days on
market, and a 7% decline in the median
sales price.
Part of this shift may be related to an
increase in the number of foreclosed
properties sold in this market segment.
One bright spot in the future for off-water
single family homes may be three new
building projects that broke ground in
2015 on 3,000+ sq. ft. homes, although by
the end of the calendar year none of them
had been completed. Those sales prices
are expected to be in the upper $700s to
low $800,000 which could begin a shift for
back in the other direction.
10
9
17
24
29
25
28
26
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Number of Transactions

$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Median List vs. Sale Price
95.10%
95.37%
90.45%
95.50%
89.25%
92.94%
94.61%
95.33%
94.96%
86.00%
87.00%
88.00%
89.00%
90.00%
91.00%
92.00%
93.00%
94.00%
95.00%
96.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes:
List vs. Sale Price Differential

$5,620,000
$4,607,100
$6,091,400
$9,158,700
$10,497,400
$10,353,100
$12,838,600 $12,865,650
$13,887,800
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Transaction Dollar Volume
167
60
104
70.5
132
102 103
63
105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Median Days on Market

On-water Single Family
Despite a decline in the number of
transactions for on-water single family
homes of just over 4% (the equivalent of
one transaction), the median sales price
increased by just over 3% and total dollar
volume increased by more than 14%. This
is due in part to sellers receiving 92.43% of
their list price, up from 90.62% in 2013.
The historical median days on market is
quite variable for on-water homes which
you might expect for properties typically
in the upper price points. And 2014 was
no different with median days on market
again increasing to 158 days. Since 2007,
overall market performance in this segment
reached its peak in 2011 and 2012, but
2014 performance is a welcome turn-
around from 2013. Where this market
segment is headed in 2015 likely will be
determined by factors outside of Tierra
Verde, e.g. stock market performance, etc.
7 7
13
21
27
28
23
22
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Numbers of Transactions

$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Median List vs. Sale Price
85.06%
85.90%
83.40%
90.50%
97.37%
92.26%
90.62%
92.43% 92.45%
75.00%
80.00%
85.00%
90.00%
95.00%
100.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes:
List vs. Sales Price Differential

$9,787,950
$11,485,825
$15,941,110
$20,504,250
$30,738,000
$30,286,400
$23,589,750
$26,988,500
$26,573,400
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Transaction Dollar Volume
120
102
178
119
174
105
144
158
146
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Median Days on Market

Conclusions
It is worth repeating that this analysis
should not be used to estimate market
value for any specific property. Properties
within market segments will differ from
one another in ways
that greatly impact
market value. All real
estate is unique. A
comparative market
analysis should be
prepared by a Realtor®
to estimate market value
for a specific property.
While real estate values always are subject
to unforeseen forces in the economy,
government policy, etc., this look at
the 2015 real estate market in Tierra
Verde makes clear when unimpeded by
governmental uncertaintly (e.g. federal
government shutdown and flood insurance
policy), our local real estate market
continues to improve.
It is evident that among
our six residential real
estate market segments
in 2015, in terms of
volume of transactions
all segments performed
far better than during
the market crash. The
continued steady
improvement of performance across
market segments is perhaps the most
important conclusion to be drawn from
this report — a rising tide lifts all boats.
Buyers continue to enjoy very low interest
rates and, as I wrote in last year’s report,
Buyers continue to
enjoy very low interest
rates and inventory of
residential properties for
sale is low.

1100 4th Street North
Suite 200
St. Petersburg, FL 33701
Robert P. Glaser, Broker
Conclusions
it may be only the best qualified buyers
who have access to available low interest
rates. Buyers are well advised to obtain
pre-qualification for a mortgage before
entering the market place.
Sellers are encouraged to require pre-
qualification documentation before
reviewing a purchase offer. And even
though the 2013 uncertainty about flood
insurance policy has largely been resolved,
it is recommended that Tierra Verde
sellers obtain a flood elevation certificate
to document the elevation of their living
space relative to the base flood elevation
(BFE). As a seller, having an elevation
certificate will help avoid surpises to a
potential buyer that can derail a closing.
Thank you for reviewing this analysis of
2015 real estate market in Tierra Verde. If
you have any questions or need further
assistance preparing to sell or buy a home,
please contact:
Dan Reichard, Realtor®
727-771-3834
dan@gulfandbayfl.com
www.gulfandbayfl.com

2015 Tierra Verde Market Analysis

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