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Recent Thoughts on Digital Media Jordan Rohan Clearmeadow Partners Presentation to the DPA Conference October 28, 2008
What Have I Been Up To?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009 Agenda
U.S. Market Averages Down ~40% in last 12 months….down 33% since June DPAC June 6, 2009 A rally of 66% required to get back to even! June 25th DPAC
Since the last DPAC in June……. Public Markets Have Re-Valued Internet June 6, 2009 The “High-Growth” Internet has not been spared
June 6, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Review of Macro Trends: Economic Recession…..
June 6, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Review of Macro Trends: There are some positives…..
Positives: Strong dollar, falling energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009 OIL  US$/Euro June 25th DPAC
Positives: Food and energy prices lower ,[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009 June 25th DPAC
June 6, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Review of Macro Trends: The Bad News…..
Negatives: Real Estate Revaluation  It may take a few more years ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009 ->  SLOW &  STEADY  IMPACT ON  AD SPEND Source: Case-Schiller Index
Negatives: Real Estate Revaluation  …New York City is not immune either…. ,[object Object],June 6, 2009 National Average NYC Source: Case-Schiller Index
Negatives: Corporate Debt Spreads Remain Massively Wide June 6, 2009
Negatives: Consumer tightening ,[object Object],June 6, 2009 Walmart
Negatives: Cutting back on casual dining ,[object Object],June 6, 2009 McDonald’s
The Rules of an Uncertain Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
Will Digital Continue to Outperform? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
On the (Slow) Decline of Portals… … and the implications for the Internet ecosystem
Social Media Continues to Grow ….while portals decline… June 6, 2009
Social Media is fantastic consumer application  …but only marginally profitable… June 6, 2009 Source: Clearmeadow, RBC, Comscore All else equal, if a consumer spends an hour daily on Facebook instead of AOL, the Internet ecosystem would miss out on over $600 of annual revenue
Publishers: Bringing Content to Social Media ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009 Unfortunately, all of these approaches require publisher to cede  control of monetization, context, and inventory availability
So what to do about Content Fragmentation? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
Yahoo:  Decline Accelerating ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
Who else could “save” Yahoo? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
Predictions for 2009
June 6, 2009 Google continues to gain share…
Consolidation Will Return ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
Ad networks… enough already ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
… Marketers & Agencies are Increasingly Selective Towards Ad Networks…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009 Source: Collective Media 2008 Survey
Impact of Ad Networks: Over-Supply ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],June 6, 2009
Jordan Rohan  (917) 699-4220  [email_address]

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Jordan Rohan

  • 1. Recent Thoughts on Digital Media Jordan Rohan Clearmeadow Partners Presentation to the DPA Conference October 28, 2008
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. U.S. Market Averages Down ~40% in last 12 months….down 33% since June DPAC June 6, 2009 A rally of 66% required to get back to even! June 25th DPAC
  • 5. Since the last DPAC in June……. Public Markets Have Re-Valued Internet June 6, 2009 The “High-Growth” Internet has not been spared
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Negatives: Corporate Debt Spreads Remain Massively Wide June 6, 2009
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. On the (Slow) Decline of Portals… … and the implications for the Internet ecosystem
  • 19. Social Media Continues to Grow ….while portals decline… June 6, 2009
  • 20. Social Media is fantastic consumer application …but only marginally profitable… June 6, 2009 Source: Clearmeadow, RBC, Comscore All else equal, if a consumer spends an hour daily on Facebook instead of AOL, the Internet ecosystem would miss out on over $600 of annual revenue
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  • 26. June 6, 2009 Google continues to gain share…
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  • 31. Jordan Rohan (917) 699-4220 [email_address]