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DIGITAL TRENDS
Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
PREDICTIONS...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg
„Predic(on	
  is	
  very	
  difficult,	
  e...
PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„The	
  horse	
  is	
  here	
  to	
  stay	...
PREDICTIONS...
http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T
„There	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  slightest	
 ...
PREDICTIONS...
http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg
„I...
PREDICTIONS...
https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg
„A	
  computer	
  in	
  every	...
PREDICTIONS...
http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg
„There	
  is	
  n...
PREDICTIONS...
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg
„There's	
  no	
  chance	
  that	...
PREDICTIONS...
PREDICTIONS...
http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
„Visionaries	
  see	
  a	
  future	
 ...
REALLY?!
REASONS
Companies	
  are	
  planning	
  for	
  con(nuous/linear	
  development	
  –	
  	
  
while	
  the	
  world	
  is	
 ...
REASONS
“How	
  did	
  you	
  go	
  bankrupt?”	
  
“Two	
  ways.	
  Gradually,	
  then	
  suddenly.”	
  
―	
  Ernest	
  He...
REASONS
1. Innovator‘s Dilemma
REASONS
2. Technology-adoption
REASONS
3. Illusion of linearity
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐man...
REASONS
„We	
  are	
  fine!“	
  
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐mana...
REASONS
„We	
  are	
  fucked!“	
  
hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐m...
ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997
http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-nationa...
PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005)
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3
•  1.8	
  teraflops	
  
•  Cost:	
  $399	
  
DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc10...
DNA-SEQUENCING
http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901
http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/nation...
LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=200...
LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif
•  30	
  years:	
  1985	...
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg
•  How	
  many	
  folds	
 ...
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif
http://www.codersrevolution.com/b...
REPLACING JOBS
„The	
  role	
  of	
  humans	
  as	
  the	
  most	
  important	
  factor	
  of	
  produc(on	
  is	
  bound	...
REPLACING JOBS
In	
  the	
  next	
  two	
  decades,	
  47	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  employment	
  is	
  ‘in	
  the	
  high-­...
REPLACING JOBS
MOBILITY
Cars:	
  $9	
  trillion	
  market	
  
http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html
h...
MOBILITY
1.2	
  million	
  deaths	
  related	
  to	
  car	
  accidents/year	
  
(40%	
  alcohol/93%	
  distracted)	
  
	
 ...
MOBILITY
Driven	
  just	
  4%	
  of	
  the	
  (me	
  
Cost	
  of	
  $9.000/year	
  
	
  
http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-a...
MOBILITY
Self-­‐driving	
  cars:	
  99%	
  fewer	
  cars	
  required	
  
Parking	
  lots	
  no	
  longer	
  required	
  (1...
ENERGY
$6 trillion market (10% GDP)
$6	
  trillion	
  market	
  (10%	
  GDP)	
  	
  
ENERGY
http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg
ENERGY
http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/
ENERGY
http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg
ENERGY
http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg
HEALTH
$7.5	
  trillion	
  market	
  
From	
  one-­‐for-­‐all	
  to	
  personalized	
  medicine	
  
From	
  treatment	
  t...
HEALTH
$258	
  bn.	
  +	
  130,000	
  deaths	
  due	
  to	
  non-­‐prescribed	
  medica(on	
  just	
  in	
  US	
  
No	
  d...
INSURANCE
Sensors	
  everywhere	
  
http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg
http://www.crea...
TELCOS
$33	
  bn.	
  lost	
  SMS	
  revenues	
  
http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx
http://ben-evans.com/bene...
TELCOS
Dumb	
  pipe?	
  
EDUCATION
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/
BANKING
„Banking	
  is	
  necessary,	
  banks	
  are	
  not.“	
  Bill	
  Gates	
  
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobon...
BANKING
2020:	
  35%	
  of	
  revenues	
  lost	
  to	
  non-­‐banks	
  and	
  online	
  pure-­‐plays	
  
http://cointelegr...
BANKING
Banking	
  license	
  
BANKING
ASacks	
  on	
  all	
  fronts	
  
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/
MONEY
$500	
  bn.	
  transfer/payment	
  fees/year	
  
http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/
http://www.c...
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
=	
  largest	
  „taxi“	
  provider;	
  no	
  vehicles	
  
=	
  most	
  popular	
  me...
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
User	
  experience	
  =	
  the	
  central	
  part:	
  	
  
own	
  the	
  customer	
 ...
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
Service	
   Aggrega(on	
   Need	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  Convenience	
  
passive	
   resp...
THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam...
THANK YOU!
Alexander	
  Braun	
  
alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de	
  
@almarrone	
  
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Digital trends: Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns

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Within a very limited timeframe of only 20 years, the internet has upended entire industries from the ground up. Each and every industry will increasingly turn into a tech-industry with the dynamics of Moore's law at play. These exponential developments will only accelerate the pace of change. The questions posed to the economy and the very foundation of our society will be nothing short of earth-shattering.

Publicada em: Tecnologia
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Digital trends: Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns

  1. 1. DIGITAL TRENDS Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns
  2. 2. PREDICTIONS... http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg „Predic(on  is  very  difficult,  especially  about  the  future.  “     Niels  Bohr  (1885  -­‐  1962)  
  3. 3. PREDICTIONS... http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T „The  horse  is  here  to  stay  but  the  automobile  is  only  a  novelty —a  fad.“  President  Michigan  Savings  Bank  advising  not  to   invest  in  Ford  Motor  Co.  (1903)  
  4. 4. PREDICTIONS... http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T „There  is  not  the  slightest  indica(on  that  nuclear  energy  will   ever  be  obtainable.  It  would  mean  that  the  atom  would  have   to  be  shaSered  at  will.“  Albert  Einstein  (1932)  
  5. 5. PREDICTIONS... http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg „I  think  there  is  a  world  market  for  maybe  five  computers.“   Thomas  Watson  (1943)  
  6. 6. PREDICTIONS... https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg „A  computer  in  every  home.“  Bill  Gates  (1977)  
  7. 7. PREDICTIONS... http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg „There  is  no  reason  for  any  individual  to  have  a  computer  in   his  home.“  Ken  Olsen  (1977)  
  8. 8. PREDICTIONS... http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg „There's  no  chance  that  the  iPhone  is  going  to  get  any   significant  market  share.“  Steve  Ballmer  (2007)  
  9. 9. PREDICTIONS...
  10. 10. PREDICTIONS... http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306 „Visionaries  see  a  future  of  telecommu(ng  workers,  interac(ve   libraries  and  mul(media  classrooms.  They  speak  of  electronic   town  mee(ngs  and  virtual  communi(es.  Commerce  and  business   will  shi_  from  offices  and  malls  to  networks  and  modems.  And  the   freedom  of  digital  networks  will  make  government  more   democra(c.   Baloney.  Do  our  computer  pundits  lack  all  common  sense?  The   truth  in  no  online  database  will  replace  your  daily  newspaper,  no   CD-­‐ROM  can  take  the  place  of  a  competent  teacher  and  no   computer  network  will  change  the  way  government  works.“      
  11. 11. REALLY?!
  12. 12. REASONS Companies  are  planning  for  con(nuous/linear  development  –     while  the  world  is  increasingly  discon(nuous/exponen(al   „If  the  rate  of  change  on  the  outside  exceeds  the  rate  of   change  on  the  inside,  the  end  is  near.“  Jack  Welch   http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1
  13. 13. REASONS “How  did  you  go  bankrupt?”   “Two  ways.  Gradually,  then  suddenly.”   ―  Ernest  Hemingway,  The  Sun  Also  Rises  
  14. 14. REASONS 1. Innovator‘s Dilemma
  15. 15. REASONS 2. Technology-adoption
  16. 16. REASONS 3. Illusion of linearity hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html  
  17. 17. REASONS „We  are  fine!“   hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html  
  18. 18. REASONS „We  are  fucked!“   hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html  
  19. 19. ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997 http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-national-laboratory/asci%20red5_800x600.jpg •  1.8  teraflops   •  10.000  Intel  Pen(um  Pro   •  Size:  Tennis-­‐Court   •  Energy  consump(on:  800  houses   •  Cost:  $55  million  
  20. 20. PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005) http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3 •  1.8  teraflops   •  Cost:  $399  
  21. 21. DNA-SEQUENCING http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg •  Cost  2007:  $10  million  
  22. 22. DNA-SEQUENCING http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901 http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg •  Cost  2015:  $1.000  
  23. 23. LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20080110081542 •  30  years:  1955  -­‐>  1985  
  24. 24. LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif •  30  years:  1985  -­‐>  2015  
  25. 25. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg •  How  many  folds  to  the  moon?  
  26. 26. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif http://www.codersrevolution.com/blog/will-a-piece-of-paper-folded-42-times-reach-the-moon
  27. 27. REPLACING JOBS „The  role  of  humans  as  the  most  important  factor  of  produc(on  is  bound   to  diminish  in  the  same  way  that  the  role  of  horses  in  agricultural   produc(on  was  first  diminished  and  then  eliminated  by  the  introduc(on  of   tractors.“  Wassily  Leon(ef  (1983)   http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg
  28. 28. REPLACING JOBS In  the  next  two  decades,  47  per  cent  of  employment  is  ‘in  the  high-­‐risk   category’,  meaning  it  is  ‘poten(ally  automatable’.   http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m
  29. 29. REPLACING JOBS
  30. 30. MOBILITY Cars:  $9  trillion  market   http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html http://i.cbc.ca/1.1508368.1381554204!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-manufacturing852-cp01542.jpg
  31. 31. MOBILITY 1.2  million  deaths  related  to  car  accidents/year   (40%  alcohol/93%  distracted)     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg
  32. 32. MOBILITY Driven  just  4%  of  the  (me   Cost  of  $9.000/year     http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/ http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/ http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg
  33. 33. MOBILITY Self-­‐driving  cars:  99%  fewer  cars  required   Parking  lots  no  longer  required  (10%  city  space)     http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
  34. 34. ENERGY $6 trillion market (10% GDP) $6  trillion  market  (10%  GDP)    
  35. 35. ENERGY http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg
  36. 36. ENERGY http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/
  37. 37. ENERGY http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg
  38. 38. ENERGY http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg
  39. 39. HEALTH $7.5  trillion  market   From  one-­‐for-­‐all  to  personalized  medicine   From  treatment  to  preven(on    
  40. 40. HEALTH $258  bn.  +  130,000  deaths  due  to  non-­‐prescribed  medica(on  just  in  US   No  doctors  required  within  20  years?     http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo
  41. 41. INSURANCE Sensors  everywhere   http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/
  42. 42. TELCOS $33  bn.  lost  SMS  revenues   http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/whatsapp-sails-past-sms-but-where-does-messaging-go-next http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-21/whatsapp-shows-how-phone-carriers-lost-out-on-33-billion
  43. 43. TELCOS Dumb  pipe?  
  44. 44. EDUCATION http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/
  45. 45. BANKING „Banking  is  necessary,  banks  are  not.“  Bill  Gates   http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg
  46. 46. BANKING 2020:  35%  of  revenues  lost  to  non-­‐banks  and  online  pure-­‐plays   http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/
  47. 47. BANKING Banking  license  
  48. 48. BANKING ASacks  on  all  fronts   https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/
  49. 49. MONEY $500  bn.  transfer/payment  fees/year   http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/ http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing- http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/features/bitcoin-reid-hoffman
  50. 50. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER? =  largest  „taxi“  provider;  no  vehicles   =  most  popular  media  owner;  no  content  created   =  most  valuable  retailer;  no  inventory   =  largest  accomoda(on  provider;  no  real  estate     =  largest  food  delivery;  no  restaurants,  no  fleet  
  51. 51. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER? User  experience  =  the  central  part:     own  the  customer  (and  the  profits)  by  solving  her   problem  in  the  most  seamless,  enjoyable  way.   „The  customer's  percep(on  is  your  reality.“   Kate  Zabriskie   „Design  is  not  just  what  it  looks  like  and  feels   like.  Design  is  how  it  works.“  Steve  Jobs   http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg
  52. 52. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER? Service   Aggrega(on   Need          Convenience   passive   responsive   proac(ve   http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg
  53. 53. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
  54. 54. DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf
  55. 55. THANK YOU! Alexander  Braun   alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de   @almarrone  

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