ISEE symposium presentation, Basel 2014 (International Society for Environmental Epidemiology) .. first-ever symposium on this topic at an international public health conference.
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Limits to Growth and Public Health
1. CRICOS #00212K
ISEE/ISES/ISIAQ, Basel, Switzerland, August 21, 2013
Professor Colin Butler
(Australian Research Council Future Fellow)
Limits to growth and environmental
epidemiology: a conceptual framework
2. CRICOS #00212K
Prof Jouni Jaakkola: Sustainable housing, Limits to Growth
and climate change
Dr Atanu Sarkar: Agricultural practices, food production,
food security and governance in South Asia
Prof Tee L. Guidotti: Health and sustainability: a taxonomy of
relationships
Dr Mary Jo Flavel: Ecosystems, biodiversity, and Limits to
Growth
Prof Colin Soskolne: Scientific factors that obscure and
obstruct our understanding of the Limits to Growth 2
3. CRICOS #00212K
A/Prof Colin D Butler (colin.butler@anu.edu.au)
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health Australian National
University, Australia
Three wise epidemiologists
Nikko Toshogu Shinto Shrine, Tokyo.
Photo: Rangaku 1976, 2008
Limits to growth and public health: where
is environmental epidemiology?
APOLOGIES:
future generations
23rd
ISEE meeting,
Barcelona,
September, 2011
3
4. CRICOS #00212K
King (1990) Health is a sustainable state. Lancet
Butler (2008) Sustainable health for all by the year 2100? Int J Pub Hlth
Hanlon & Carlisle (2008) Do we face a third revolution in human history? If so,
how will public health respond? J Pub Hlth
McMichael & Butler (2011) Promoting global population health while
constraining the environmental footprint. Ann Rev Publ Hlth
Brijnath, McMichael & Butler (2012) Rio+20: Donโt forget health in sustainability
talks. Nature
Butler and Weinstein (2013) The future of global health. Reasons for alarm and
a call for action. World Med J
4
โPeak healthโ
President Royal Society 2005-2010
9. CRICOS #00212K
โYield plateaus are evident: wheat, maize in China perhaps irrigated
maize in the USA., Korea and China for riceโ (Ken Cassman)
9
Limits to growth
11. CRICOS #00212K
From forecasting and models (1970s) to abundant data and
evidence .. not sufficiently acted on by policy makers, under-
appreciated within academia
1.Persistently high energy price
2.Stagnant economic โgrowthโ
3.Flattened genuine progress
4.Return of famines
5.Increasing civil wars
6.Numerous interactions: systemic nature
7.โHealth for allโ a dream
8.Retreat of civilization and strengthening โfortress worldโ
11
Looking Back on the Limits of Growth
Forty years after the release of the groundbreaking study, were the concerns about overpopulation and the environment correct?
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By Mark Strauss
Smithsonian magazine, April 2012, Subscribe
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Chart Sources: Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J. and Behrens III, W.W. (1972) (Linda Eckstein)
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More from Smithsonian.com
Thinking About Futurism
Is it Too Late for Sustainable Development?
Recent research supports the conclusions of a controversial environmental study released 40 years ago: The world is on track for disaster. So says Australian physicist Graham Turner, who revisited perhaps the most groundbreaking academic work of the 1970s,The Limits to Growth.
Written by MIT researchers for an international think tank, the Club of Rome, the study used computers to model several possible future scenarios. The business-as-usual scenario estimated that if human beings continued to consume more than nature was capable of providing, global economic collapse and precipitous population decline could occur by 2030.
However, the study also noted that unlimited economic growth was possible, if governments forged policies and invested in technologies to regulate the expansion of humanityโs ecological footprint. Prominent economists disagreed with the reportโs methodology and conclusions. Yaleโs Henry Wallich opposed active intervention, declaring that limiting economic growth too soon would be โconsigning billions to permanent poverty.โ
Turner compared real-world data from 1970 to 2000 with the business-as-usual scenario. He found the predictions nearly matched the facts. โThere is a very clear warning bell being rung here,โ he says. โWe are not on a sustainable trajectory.โ
Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#ixzz2aopH5KZr Follow us: @SmithsonianMag on Twitter
Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza, C. Franco, P. Lawn, J. Talberth, T. Jackson and C. Aylmer (2013). "Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress." Ecological Economics 93(0): 57-68.
Here is another indicator, of a precious earthly fluid, called oil. Essentially, we are bleeding our home planet of stored fossil fuel. This chart was published last month in Nature. One of the authors is Sir David King, the former chief scientist of the UK. It also shows the abysmal failure of brown economics. The red line show the price of oil in US$ since 1998, and here it is smoothed out.
The blue-green line shows oil production. As we saw with the tuna, as the price rises, the production will be stimulated, and for a while, until about 2005, it was. Since then there has been a plateau, even though the price has continued to rise.
Fatah Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency agrees with Sir David King.
Murray, J. and D. King (2012). "Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed." Nature 481: 433-435.
International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook. 2008
Butler, C. D. (2010). "The climate crisis, global health, and the medical response " World Medical Journal 56(2): 56-58.