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Expert Briefing - State of Bitcoin

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On 2nd March 2015, we held our first Expert Briefing, inviting a limited number of London's leading finance and technology journalists to learn more about the world of digital money over a few drinks.

These slides are from Garrick Hileman's State of Bitcoin presentation.

The event was sponsored by Elliptic, Circle and General Bytes.

Publicada em: Economia e finanças
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Expert Briefing - State of Bitcoin

  1. State of Bitcoin 2015 2 2 March 2015
  2. About CoinDesk • World leader in digital currency news, prices and information • The Bitcoin Price Index serves as an industry reference point • International team headquartered in London • Editors based in London, New York, San Francisco and Tokyo 4State of Bitcoin 2015
  3. 5State of Bitcoin 2015 The State of Bitcoin?
  4. A ‘Tale of Two Bitcoins’? 6 “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way” -Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities State of Bitcoin 2015
  5. Contents • Price • Media • VC Investment • Commerce • Technology • Regulation and Macro • Conclusion 7State of Bitcoin 2015
  6. 8State of Bitcoin 2015 Price
  7. $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 From Biggest Annual Price Appreciation in History… 56X in 2013 2011-13 CAGR of 84,066% Bitcoin price up Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index daily closing price (taken at 00:00 GMT) 9 01/01/2013 01/02/2013 01/03/2013 01/04/2013 1/05/2013 1/06/2013 1/07/2013 1/08/2013 1/09/2013 1/10/2013 1/11/2013 1/12/2013 State of Bitcoin 2015
  8. …to 2014’s Worst Performing Currency 10 Source: CoinDesk http://www.coindesk.com/price/ State of Bitcoin 2015 -67.4%
  9. CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index – 2014 & 2015 YTD by the Numbers 11State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily data collected at 00:00 UTC www.coindesk.com/price 31st Dec Close $319.70 2nd Mar $258.88 YTD Δ -19.0% 2nd Mar Market Cap $3.6bn 2015 YTD Price Summary High (6th Jan) $951.39 Low (30th Dec) $309.87 2014 Δ -67.4% Average $526.92 Median $501.63 2014 Price Summary
  10. The Bitcoin Startup Ecosystem: Seven Different Bitcoin Company Categories 12State of Bitcoin 2015 Payment Processing Wallets Mining Financial Services Exchanges Infrastructure Universal Source: CoinDesk
  11. Mining and Exchange Sectors Shrink 13State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinDesk Exchange companies go bankrupt Mining companies go bankrupt Aquifer LLC
  12. 14State of Bitcoin 2015 Media
  13. Bitcoin: Never a Shortage of Bad News 15State of Bitcoin 2015
  14. Q1 Negative News 16State of Bitcoin 2015 Bitstamp claims $5 million lost in hot wallet hack Bitcoin mining firm CoinTerra files for chapter 7 bankruptcy Hong Kong's MyCoin disappears with up to $387 million
  15. Drop in Bitcoin News Coverage in Q1 17State of Bitcoin 2015 News Published Mentioning Bitcoin Note: Numbers of stories obtained by searching ‘bitcoin’ on respective publishers’ websites, Q1 2015 number of news coverage calculated by run rate Sources: respective publishers’ websites 92 67 136 194 41 76 156 235 0 100 200 300 400 500 FT NYT WSJ Sina Q1 2015 Q4 2014
  16. Q1 Positive News 18State of Bitcoin 2015 Coinbase's record $75 million funding round, opening of US regulation compliant exchange Bitcoin Core 0.10 gives developers simplified network consensus access Blockchain number of wallets passes 3 million
  17. 19State of Bitcoin 2015 VC Investment
  18. Total VC Investment in Bitcoin Startups to Date 20 $551m Source: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/) State of Bitcoin 2015
  19. Eventually mainstream products, companies and industries emerge to commercialize it; its effects become profound; and later, many people wonder why its powerful promise wasn’t more obvious from the start. What technology am I talking about? Personal computers in 1975, the Internet in 1993, and – I believe – Bitcoin in 2014. - Marc Andreessen, Andreessen Horowitz As Big as the PC and Internet? “ ” 21State of Bitcoin 2015
  20. 2014 Bitcoin VC Investment Surpassed Early-Stage Internet Investment 22State of Bitcoin 2015 *Includes first sequence venture deals but excludes late-stage 1995 Internet investments ($257.6m). For additional disclosure on methodology see www.coindesk.com/following-money-trends-bitcoin-venture-capital-investment/ $95.8 $334.8 $250.1 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 2013 Bitcoin 2014 Bitcoin 1995 Internet* Bitcoin vs Early Internet VC Investment ($m) Sources: CoinDesk, PricewaterhouseCoopers
  21. Record Setting VC Deals Continue after the Price Collapse 23State of Bitcoin 2015 $75m $30.5m (Series A) October 2014(Series C) Jan 2015 Source: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/)
  22. Universals Raised the Most Funding in Q1, Followed by Mining and Infrastructure 24State of Bitcoin 2015 Q1 VC Investment by Ecosystem Category (millions) Sources: CoinDesk (www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/), CrunchBase $1.1 $1.7 $2.0 $5.0 $6.1 $15.0 $75.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Payment Processor Exchange Wallet Financial Services Infrastructure Mining Universal
  23. Number of Universal Bitcoin Companies Doubled in 2014 25State of Bitcoin 2015 • Universals operate across more than one aspect of the bitcoin value chain (e.g. Coinplug provides payment processing, wallet and ATMs) • More and more bitcoin startups continue to pursue the universal model • Universal bitcoin companies leverage two key elements of financial services: efficiency and trust The Universals 2013 2014
  24. 26State of Bitcoin 2015 Commerce
  25. What Do People Buy with Bitcoins? Home Goods & Consumer Electronics 27State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: most popular items purchased through Purse.io by November 2014 Trashbags Coffee Grinder Infant Formula Home Goods Bluetooth SpeakerDigital CameraPlaystation Consumer Electronics
  26. Companies Representing >$180 Billion in Annual Revenue Now Accept Bitcoin 28State of Bitcoin 2015 Top 10 Largest Bitcoin-Accepting Retailers *Monprix is a private company; most recent revenue data is from 2005. TigerDirect estimate provided by parent company investor relations. Other divisions that are part of a larger parent organization, but do not break out individual divisional revenues, are excluded. Rank Company Annual Revenue ($bn) 1 Microsoft 86.8 2 Dell 56.9 3 Dish Network 13.9 4 Expedia 5.0 5 Intuit 4.5 6 Monprix* 4.3 7 Time Inc.** 3.4 8 NewEgg 2.8 9 Overstock 1.3 10 TigerDirect* 1.0 Total $179.9 **The revenue is Time Inc. FY 2013 revenue Sources: CoinDesk, Coinbase, BitPay, companies’ annual reports
  27. >82,000 Merchants Now Accept Bitcoin, Up From 75,000 in Q3 (+9%) 29State of Bitcoin 2015 44K 38K Sources: Coinbase and BitPay
  28. Growth in Bitcoin-Accepting Businesses Slowed Throughout 2014 30State of Bitcoin 2015 Sources: CoinDesk, Bitcoinity 13,903 16,800 12,936 10,360 6,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Number of New Bitcoin-Accepting Businesses Added Each Quarter
  29. Total merchants Forecasted merchants 140,000 Bitcoin-Accepting Merchants Forecast by End of 2015 31State of Bitcoin 2015 Sources and notes: total current merchants based on data from Coinbase and BitPay. Historical Coinbase data provided by BitcoinPulse. BitPay historical data between new merchant press release announcements of 10,000 (16th Sep 2013), 20,000 (13th Jan 2014) and 30,000 (28th May 2014), respectively, calculated using linear interpolation. R² = 0.962 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
  30. Well-Funded Bitcoin Startups are Able to Secure Banking Relationships 32State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/) $27.5m funding $10.0m funding $9.0m funding $5.0m funding Reasons banks hesitate on bitcoin: • bigger risks • higher costs • more work • Low ROI • regulatory pressure • prohibited by regulators
  31. Blockchain Wallet Growth Rate Has Been Flat for Last 12 Months 33State of Bitcoin 2015 Source and note : Blockchain.info, 2015 quarter one wallet number is calculated by run rate 120 515 481 343 481 451 465 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014 Jun-2014 Sep-2014 Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Thousands No. of New Wallets No. of New Wallets
  32. Total Wallets Forecasted Wallets Approximately 12 Million Bitcoin Wallets Forecast by End of 2015 34State of Bitcoin 2015 R2 = 0.971 Sources and notes: total wallets based on data from Blockchain.info, MultiBit, Coinbase, Andreas Schildbach (Android Bitcoin Wallet developer). Historical Coinbase data provided by BitcoinPulse. 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16
  33. Bitcoin Remains the Coin of Choice in the Post-Silk Road Online Black Market 35State of Bitcoin 2015 • The view that bitcoin would be quickly supplanted by DarkCoin or another theoretically more anonymous altcoin for black market use appears to be unfounded Source: Wired http://www.wired.com/2014/09/agora-bigger-than-silk-road/ Agora, which is larger than Silk Road 2.0, only accepts bitcoins
  34. 36State of Bitcoin 2015 Technology
  35. 520 Altcoins, Bitcoin’s Market Cap is 8X Larger Than the Next Biggest 37State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinMarketCap data as of 27th Feb 2015 Rank Name MarketCap 1 Bitcoin $ 3,500,578,678 2 Ripple $ 417,883,964 3 Litecoin $ 67,896,496 4 BitShares $ 27,093,299 5 Darkcoin $ 16,441,742 6 MaidSafeCoin $ 14,798,328 7 Dogecoin $ 14,131,219 8 Nxt $ 13,100,862 9 Paycoin $ 12,638,054 10 Stellar $ 11,167,006
  36. Crypto 2.0 Projects to Keep an Eye on in 2015 38State of Bitcoin 2015 BitAssets – allowing traders to hedge against bitcoin's fluctuations Alternative blockchain to bitcoin’s Decentralised social messenger Bringing smart contracts to market Source: CoinDesk
  37. CoinBase’s API Gaining Traction With 44 Bitcoin Apps Built on it 39State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinBase
  38. 40State of Bitcoin 2015 Regulation and Macro
  39. NY BitLicenses 2.0: Bitcoin Still Being Held to Higher Standard 41State of Bitcoin 2015 • New York’s BitLicense regulatory proposal widely regarded as a possible framework for other jurisdictions. • Ben Lawsky announced the latest revisions to the draft BitLicense in mid-December. • Clarified and narrowed which players in the digital currency industry would be required to obtain a BitLicense. • Fewer disclosure and record-keeping requirements for transactions. • The proposed record-keeping requirement for licensees reduced from 10 to seven years. • Broader range of financial assets (that includes virtual currency) that can be counted towards licensees' capital requirements. Ben Lawsky Source: CoinDesk
  40. Bitcoin Startups are Pulling Out of NY 42State of Bitcoin 2015 NY’s Ben Lawsky UK’s George Osborne New York vs London • UK Chancellor George Osborne has announced he is looking to make the UK attractive to bitcoin startups and capital • Startups like Epiphyte have already relocated from NY to seemingly friendlier London
  41. Light Touch UK Bitcoin Regulation 43State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-regulation-uk/) Consumer Protection HMRC (HM Revenue & Customs) and FCA Taxation Prevention of money laundering Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) No regulation on digital currencies and no intention of doing so. No formal obligation from HMRC. But Registering as an MSB brings a firm under the UK's anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. HMRC VAT on bitcoin purchase withdrawn. HMRC considering how best to tax bitcoin.
  42. UK-London Based Bitcoin Companies 44State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: CoinDesk (News & Analytics) (Wallet) (Wallet) (Exchange) (Payment Processor) (Exchange) (Exchange)(Networking)
  43. Illegal Restricted Legal 45State of Bitcoin 2015 Source: Wikipedia Bitcoin Regulation Could Be Much Heavier
  44. Will Bitcoin First Gain Traction in Advanced Economies… 46State of Bitcoin 2015
  45. … or in the Under-banked Developing World? Due to lack of credit cards, approximately 65% and 35% of all e-commerce in China and India respectively is conducted with cash … bitcoin may help it leapfrog credit cards 47State of Bitcoin 2015
  46. Bitcoin Market Potential Index (BMPI) 48 • Remittances • Inflation • Technology penetration • Financial repression • Bitcoin penetration • Financial crisis – historical • Black market ‘Positive’ Index Drivers ‘Negative’ Index Drivers State of Bitcoin 2015
  47. Sub-Saharan Africa is the Most Fertile Region for Bitcoin, Followed by Latin America & Post-Soviet 49 BMPI Regional Distribution - Top 30 BMPI Regional Distribution - Top 10 Asia 0% Europe 10% Middle East & North Africa 10% Latin America 20% US & Canada 10% Sub- Saharan Africa 40% Post- Soviet/Com munist 10% Asia 7% Europe 3% Middle East & North Africa 13% Latin America 17% US & Canada 3% Sub- Saharan Africa 40% Post- Soviet/Com munist 17% State of Bitcoin 2015
  48. The BMPI Top 10 50 Rank Country 1 Argentina 2 Venezuela 3 Zimbabwe 4 Malawi 5 United States 6 Belarus 7 Nigeria 8 Congo (DR) 9 Iceland 10 Iran Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s Argentina is #1 State of Bitcoin 2015
  49. BMPI Interactive Heat Map located at: 51 BitcoinIQ.info State of Bitcoin 2015
  50. 52State of Bitcoin 2015 Conclusion
  51. A ‘Tale of Two Bitcoins’ 53State of Bitcoin 2015
  52. Type Historical Contemporary DigitalPhysical Intrinsic value Token Closed Centralized Open Decentralized N/A Source: Hileman (2013) ‘History and Prospects for Alternative Currencies’, London School of Economics working paper Bitcoin is Unlike Any Previous Alternative Currency 54State of Bitcoin 2015
  53. Investments in FinTech Dwarf Bitcoin 55State of Bitcoin 2015 BitcoinFinTech Sources: CoinDesk, Medium (https://medium.com/@UnitedVentures/fintech-key-trends-2014-5124b6088677) FinTech $3b invested in 2014 $0.3b invested in 2014 100 Deals Biggest Deal $31m 216 Deals Biggest Deal $150M
  54. FinTech Investment Continues Growing 56State of Bitcoin 2015 Sources: CoinDesk, Medium (https://medium.com/@UnitedVentures/fintech-key-trends-2014-5124b6088677)
  55. Thank you @GarrickHileman State of Bitcoin 2015

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