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‘Colliding Worlds Workshop’ with
Anton Musgrave
#SMEleaders16
Anton Musgrave
Senior Partner
FutureWorld International
www.FutureWorld.org
Dublin
2 December 2016
Colliding Worlds
Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)
H o w t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e c h a n g i n g w o r l d
Collisions
How we live
How we interact with each other
With our environment
And how we do business…
With massive implications
digital business!
Many collisions ahead!
• Linear vs. exponential
• Predictability vs. chaos
• Physical vs. virtual
• Legacy vs. speed
• People vs. machines
• Ownership vs. access
• Capitalism vs. shared
wealth
• Shareholders vs. ecosystems
• Jobs vs. creative entrepreneurship
• Rules vs. flexibility
• Constraints vs. abundance
• Fossil fuels vs. renewables
• Reality vs. dreams
• West vs. East
• Tanks and guns vs. Code
• Reality vs. AI and VR
…and MANY more
And…another collision!
“I wish things were like they used to be…”
Entire industries wither and die…
The	world's	last	VCR	factory	closed	
its	doors	– only	last	month.
Digital	advertising	is	set	to	overtake	
the	$200-billion	TV	market…
And	Google	and	Facebook	already	
control	72%...the	new	monopolies?
India sets world record
by launching 20 satellites
in a single mission
Tesla may manufacture
its electric cars in India
Just think…But new industries blossom…
Strategic Choices
Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)
It’s about FOCUS!Looking in the wrong direction…
Asking the wrong questions…
Understand Your Future Context
Your
current
future
Today
Market
Forces Evolutionar
y innovation
Courageous
innovation
Analog, Linear,
Dumb
Business of
Today
Digital,
Exponential,
Cognitive
Business of
Tomorrow
Decline
without fast,
radical
innovation
“What is YOUR
future readiness?”
“What is your
digital IQ/EQ?”
Our World
New World
Friction = ‘Legacy’
…systems,
people and
thinking!
“We	didn’t	do	
anything	wrong,	
but	somehow,	
we	lost”	
Stephen	Elop,	CEO,	Nokia	
when	Nokia	was	acquired	by	
Microsoft
Yes, they did do something
wrong…
‘THEY MISS THE FUTURE!’
‘…what is that future really going to be?’
‘…AND HOW DO WE CREATE IT?’
What	is	this?
"In	the	2030s,	we	are	going	to	send	nano-robots	into	the	
brain	that	will	provide	full	immersion	virtual	reality	from	
within	the	nervous	system	and	will	connect	our	neo-cortex	to	
the	cloud.”	
Ray	Kurzweil October,	2015
Thoroughly unbelievable futures…
What is YOUR
deepest
‘thinking
groove’?
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)
Organisation
Leadership
Partnerships
The
Environment
Business today
Our
Markets
The
Environment
Our
Markets
Strategic Thinking & Strategic ActionTM
Business Tomorrow
Today Future
Strategic
Inputs
Strategic
Actions
Political
Social
Economic
Technology
A process for
learning from
the future
The
10%
Rule
Give us 10% of your time to
create a process for choosing
your future.
Needs
Unique value
Winners/Losers
Waypoints today
• Future technology
• Future humans
• Future business
• Future work
• Lessons and rules….
Waypoints
• Future technology
• Future humans
• Future business
• Future work
• Lessons and rules….
Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)
The Computer Revolution
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
Welcome to the
4th Industrial Revolution
A fusion of technologies
that is blurring the lines
between the
physical, digital
and biological
worlds
the new new
economics of digital business
• Bio- and Nanotechnology
• Cognitive Neuroscience
• Synthetic Biology & Biomimicry
• Artificial Intelligence
• Big Data & Advanced Analytics
• Virtual, Augmented & Mixed Reality
• Neural and Quantum Computing
Driving costs down
Opening new global markets
Creating new industries
Challenging incumbents
New sciences and technologies…
Imagine a world where
EVERYONE …and EVERYTHING
is connected…
Ubiquitous connectivity
Over to Facebook…
Connected, virtual, intelligent everything!
From www… to
Web of the whole, wide
world…wwww!
Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)
It's just insane!
The 'LUDICROUS' button has just
been launched!
When your self-driving car has a bank
account
$$$$
• Cars today: parked 96% of the time
• 1/3 of urban land for parking
• In dense cities (e.g. Los Angeles) up to 60%
• EIGHT parking spaces per car in use
• 13% of the avg home for parking vehicles
JUST THINK OF THE
POSSIBILITIES!
We have reached peak cars as we know them!
BUT…what does this mean?
Energy internet – managed by the
blockchain
Energy tipping point
Renewable energy overtakes
coal…now the world's largest
installed power source
500,000 solar panels installed
every day
Key technologies are hydro, solar
and wind
Source: International Energy Agency 2016 World Energy Outlook
Exponential Thinking
Facebook: creates no content
Uber: owns no cars
Airbnb: owns no rooms
Alibaba: keeps no stock
Whatsapp: owns no servers
Apple: owns no factories
Netflix: owns no cinemas
Game changers: Fast new models
Legacy Thinking
Large and clunky
Massive overhead
Thousands of people
Trained in out-dated methods!
AI / Machine Learning / Big Data
Machines vs Humans
"There is no single
human skill that
cannot be done by
robots or Artificial
Intelligence…"
Whew! Thankfully, we're not factory workers
A universal wage for all?
As AI and robotics
develop, so jobs are
disappearing. How will
humans live without
work?
VR = New human experiences?
Combinatorial innovation explodes
Ubiquitous
connectivity
Internet of
everything
Big, deep & dark
data
Artificial Intelligence, VR &
IoT
Smart robotics
Self learning systems
Fractal free energy
Smart
Life
Man vs. Machine
Waypoints
• Future technology
• Future humans
• Future business
• Future work
• Lessons and rules….
The human revolution
• Genomics, neural prosthetics,
augmentation
• Longer life
• New human relevance
Big issues to come…but do you
remember ‘Test tube babies’?
• Privacy and the right to be forgotten
• Digital ethics
• Terrorism, torture and crime
• Government intervention looms
THREE BILLION new minds will
join the global economy in next
10 years
Tens of $trillions in emerging
buying power
And a new internet-empowered
entrepreneurial class
Game changers: Scale
Can we deal with them?
They ARE different!
What about YOUR kids?
Future Auditors?
Its 2026….What do they really
want….how do they operate...how do
they buy? Lessons for us?
Waypoints
• Future technology
• Future humans
• Future business
• Future work
• Lessons and rules….
The new world is Exponentially different
Not negotiable!
Are you
ready to
operate in
this
world?
Naked Leadership
Life in a
Fishbowl:
The Challenge of
an Open and
Transparent
Marketplace
Living in Exponential times
2035
2016
1995
1795
You are here --
------>
Many vs. the Experts
Toxic assumptions in Cokes business?
Discuss some core toxic assumptions
in your 2016 thinking?
Discuss the KEY strategic enablers of
exponential change in Irish
businesses.
Your feet are on fire!
The 21st Century Corporation?
• Open, frictionless world
• Ideas flow freely…so does capital!
• New competitors and markets
• New relationships & ecosystems!
Waypoints
• Future technology
• Future humans
• Future business
• Future work
• Lessons and rules….
“Purpose	must	be	part	of	our	operating	model.	Every	brand	must	
become	a	cause,	a	social	movement	– women’s	esteem	with	Dove,	
hygiene	with	Lifebouy…”	
- Paul	Polman,	CEO	Unilever
Devise	a	Strong	Purpose
Be careful of yesterday’s experts…
Dream #workrevolution!
Is it insightful?
Is it exponential?
Is it disruptive?
Is it aspirational?
What Characteristics Create Value?
Rational
Analysis
Reductionist
Linear
Intuitive
Synthesis
Holistic
Nonlinear
Source: Based on the thinking of Fritjof Capra “The Web of Life” 1996
Mechanistic World
Thinking
Strategy
Conservation
Cooperation
Quality
Partnership
Expansion
Competition
Quantity
Domination
Systemic/Fractal World
How does your ‘net worth’ stack up?
As an individual? As a business?
How do you evolve these new attitudes?
ENGAGE
ENABLE
INSPIREREWARD
Four steps to build The Leader of the Future
Relevance of Future leaders
• Key leadership attributes to ensure 2026
relevance?
• Skills
• Attitudes
• Diversity
• Future readiness
• Future fit
• Core Behaviours
• ????
Action ScenariosTM
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
ELEPHANT AND CROUCHING TIGER
INDIA
In the 21st Century
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
Low – Economic Growth – High
Higher – Government Intervention – Lower
Low – Economic Incentives – High
Low – Environmental Focus – High
Higher – Ethnic Conflicts – Lower
Key Strategic Drivers/Dilemmas
Copyright 2016 All Rights Reserved
Scenario Matrix
Paradise Found
Government actively drives growth,
infrastructure and regional
integration. Urban and rural
populations absorbed into booming
economy. World leader in services,
biotech and health care. Active and
positive role in world politics.
Unfulfilled Dream
Government thrusts into
economic liberation thwarted by a
dull world economy and reduced
consumer demand. Political
turmoil follows poor economic
performance.
Mega-Slums
Government's increasingly
socialist policies kill economic
growth. Poverty expands and
major businesses leave their
research facilities and
unemployment leads to unrest.
Business Departs
India becomes increasingly
isolated from a growing world
economy. Government controls
increase and infrastructure
crumbles. Mobile Indian diaspora
establish businesses elsewhere.
Flat–WorldEconomy–Booming
Conflict – Government/Business – Synergy
?
?
The Future
of India
?
?
Action ScenariosTM
Discuss and agree the 6 key
drivers/forces shaping the 2026
future of Irish business…
Understanding our strategic choices
Characteristic 2
.
Characteristic 4Characteristic 3
Characteristic 1Characteristic 1
Low–Driver1–High
Low – Driver 2 – High
?
?
The Future
of …….
?
?
Likely Future
Ideal Future
Contin-
gency
Contin-
gency
Contin-
gency
Key Insights for YOUR business?
Waypoints
• Future technology
• Future humans
• Future business
• Future work
• Lessons and rules….
Strategy – in 3 Pics!
The Digital IQ and EQ of your
business?
Colliding Worlds Workshop Slides (Anton Musgrave)
• WHY would I talk about you?
• When and how would I talk about you?
• Do I care enough about you?
• Is your business visible?
• Is your business incredibly useful?
• What stories would I tell?
Is YOUR business contagious?
“Contagious”: Jonah Berger
Telling the story…a passionate purpose
Enable Humanness
Awareness
Mystery
Emotion
Serendipity
Stories
Relationships
Creativity
Design
Humour
Fun
Business of
Today
SWOT
Competitor Analysis
Constraints
Rules
Business of
Tomorrow
Understand the
future context
Define a new game
Opportunities
Creativity
Linear Business
Top-down, bureaucratic and
hierarchical
Driven by financial outcomes
Innovation from within
Risk intolerant
Processes are fixed and
inflexible
Strategy by extrapolating
from the past
Exponential Business
Networked, fast, agile and open
Driven by a Massively
Transformative Purpose
Collaboration and partnership
High risk appetite, fail fast
Processes outsourced and
market-responsive
Big vision and short-term course
correction
Which do you want to be?
“I have a spread-
sheet!”
“I have a budget!”
“I have a strategy!”
Martin Luther King…
Your future is
journey and it is a
matter of choice
…NOT chance!
The Future is Ours!
anton@futureworld.org
#antonmus
www.mindbullets.net
www.futureworld.org
Thank you!
SME Leaders’ Online Connected Community
Enterprise Ireland will conduct pilots during 2017.
Please indicate your interest in getting involved by contacting:
Liam.Ryan@enterprise-Ireland.com
01 727 2830

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