The document discusses how to use social media to predict future trends by becoming a trendspotter. It emphasizes identifying influencers by finding those who early adopters in niche communities talk to. While any individual may become an influencer, true influencers tend to talk to each other. The document also stresses the importance of understanding audiences in depth by considering demographics, psychographics like hobbies and interests, and social media behaviors. Both identifying small groups of early influencers and tracking acceleration of topics, not just overall volumes, are highlighted as important to predicting emerging trends.

1. Predict the Future Through Social Media
Get ahead of the curve by becoming
a trendspotter
Heidi Sullivan, SVP, Digital Content, @hksully
Tom Ritchie, SVP, Product Management, @Tom_Cision
#cision

2. Trends – Why track them?
 Insights into community
and consumer behavior
 Inspiration/Innovation
 Expand knowledge base to
become a more electric
personality
 Speak the language of your
community
 Create timely story ideas
#cision

3. What are we looking for?
What can we find with trendspotting?
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4. You can’t have an audience without
people.
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5. And you can’t have
effective
marketing if you
can’t reach those
people.
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6. 66
There is no more silver bullet.
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7. Is your content reaching
your intended audience?
Google increased
the importance of
original content
when they
determine Search
Engine Results Page#cision

8. “If the news is
that important, it
will find me.”
- A college student in an article by Brian Stelter in the New York
Times, March 2008
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9. Why Influencers?
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10. 1010
The tip of the iceberg
1% of any population will be active content creators
9% will be participants
90% will simply "consume" that content online
- Rohit Bhargava, Influential Marketing Blog
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11. The Hush Puppy Concept
No, not these: These:
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12. The Hush Puppy Concept
 1994 – Hush Puppies struggling
as a brand
 A few NYC hipsters started
wearing them
 Spread to NYC fashion, then the
rest of the country
 Sales exploded by 5000% in 2
years
 Q: Do influencers start trends?
#cision

13. Duncan Watts’ Online Music
Download Study
• 14,000 participants rank 48 songs
• When not provided with others’ ranks, results
were completely random
• When provided with group ranks, users followed
the herd and word of mouth took over
#cision

14. Do influencers truly influence the masses?
Malcolm Gladwell: Law of the Few
“The success of any kind of social epidemic is heavily
dependent on the involvement of people with a
particular and rare set of social gifts.”
VS
Duncan Watts: Trends are Unpredictable
“A rare bunch of cool people just don’t have that power.
And when you test the way marketers say the world
works, it falls apart.”
#cision

15. 1515
Who is right:
Watts or Gladwell?
 Both. Trends still begin
with a small few and are
spread by those with
connections.
 Influencers can change
over time – and anyone
can become an influencer.
 However, a general rule of
thumb is that influencers
tend to talk to each other. #cision

16. 1616
To identify our
influencers, we
need to identify our tribe.
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17. 1717
Know your niche – the devil is in the details
About one quarter of bloggers tracked in Cision’s media database
cover one of 26 “first tier” general topics. The rest cover more
specific topics.
General
23%
Specific
77%
Source: Cision Media Research
#cision

18. 1818
Influencers Talk to Each Other
 Once you find one or two influencers in your space, see who
they are talking to and who they reference
#cision

19. 1919
Yesterday’sAudience– The BucketMethod
Age
Income
Geography
Gender
Race
Marital Status
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20. 2020
Male
35-44 years old
Income $50K+
Married
Some College
Chicago
Volleyball Player
Starbucks Coffee
Drinker
Liberal
Sox/Bears Fan
Avid Fisherman
YouTube Viewer
Food Blogger
Tweets 3x/day on
average
100+ Brand/Movie
Likes on Facebook
DEMOGRAPHICS PSYCHOGRAPHICS SOCIALGRAPHICS
Deeper understanding of end-users
#cision

21. 2121
Blogger
Tweets
3x/day
100+
Facebook
Brand Likes
Volleyball
Player
Starbucks
Coffee
Drinker
Liberal
Sox/Bears
Fan
Avid
Fisherman
Male
35-44 years
old
Household
Income
$50K+
Married
Some
College
Chicago
35-44 years
Today’s
Consumer in
Real-time
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22. Look-Alike & Response Models
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23. VOLUME VS. ACCELERATION =
VELOCITY
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24. Share of voice vs. share of trend
Nike vs. New Balance overall blog mentions
% increase Nike vs. New Balance on “barefoot running”
Nike
New
Balance
Nike
New
Balance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011
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25. Mining internal troves of unstructured data
A new breed of language
processing tools is deriving deep
insights from customer
conversations

26. Advanced text analytics have arrived
• Going beyond mere sentiment detection, modern tools
also provide context and help to mine for attributes (e.g.
the author’s intent)
• A bird’s eye view of unstructured text will show you what
your customers are trying to ask you for
Source: OpenAmplify

27. Intent analysis
“I have to ask my sister about which
tablet PC to get. She knows all about
those.”
“So many tablets out there! Which one?”
“I’m finally ready to get a tablet.
Recommendations?”

28. We have access to conversations that
we’ve never had before.
• IDENTIFY communities and influencers.
• LISTEN to conversations and blog posts to identify
trends and gain insights.
• PARTICIPATE and build relationships, becoming a
member of the community (and not just a PR person.)
• RESEARCH trends, companies, technologies and more.
• CREATE real stories about your brand that connect
with trends and news of the day in your industry.
#cision

29. Trends aren’t just about PR
- From trendwatching.com’s “15 Trend Tips”
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30. Predict the Future Through Social Media
QUESTIONS?
Heidi Sullivan, SVP, Digital Content, @hksully
Tom Ritchie, SVP, Product Management, @Tom_Cision
#cision