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Unitisation and a Global Market in Gas Spark & Flame Conference - Rotterdam Chris Cook  3 December 2009
Gas needs literally trillions of dollars in investment....
....but where will this come from?
There are two conventional types of investment:  Equity  and  Debt 02/12/09
Equity  – shares with par value (eg £1) in a Joint Stock Limited Liability Company 02/12/09
....a 19 th  Century legal dinosaur   02/12/09
Debt  – interest-bearing loans –typically from banks - secured by legal claims 02/12/09
These result in conflicting claims over the same productive asset 02/12/09
But there are new furry animals out there....   02/12/09
Partnership entities – such as the UK Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) 02/12/09
An LLP is a corporate body with limited liability.... 02/12/09
...and...errrr...that’s it!... 02/12/09
As far as the Tax Man is concerned it  is  a Partnership 02/12/09
It’s an  Open  Corporate enabling partnership working 02/12/09
... even without a written agreement 02/12/09
A Partnership framework enables direct -  Peer to Peer  - Investment 02/12/09
Unitisation   of gas within a Capital Partnership enables direct P2P investment 02/12/09
Capital Partnership   – direct Peer to Peer investment in productive assets 02/12/09
2002 - Hilton Capital Partnership (  > £1bn) Capital Partnership LLP 10 UK Hotels Gross  Revenues  Hilton Group Capital User Consortium LLP  Capital Provider Bank Property Developer Hotel Specialist %  %  % % %
Productive assets are held by a “Custodian”.. Assets Custodian Ownership
… Investors put in Financial Capital in money, or  money’s worth … Assets Investors Ownership Financial Capital Custodian
… Managers provide Human Capital of time, expertise and experience.... Assets Investors Ownership Human Capital Financial Capital Managers Custodian
..Users pay for the use of Capital Assets Investors Payment % % Use Managers Users Custodian
Generic Capital Partnership Framework Assets Investors Payment % % Use Managers Users Custodian
Capital Partnership reinvents Equity
Equity Shares   - % age shares in revenues or production... 02/12/09
… ..which  may  be transferred, but never redeemed, since there must always be 100%
Units   – redeemable in payment for production eg natural gas, Kilo Watt Hours
Units have a value in exchange
Anyone who understands Air Miles...
… .or proprietary currencies
… .will understand  Units
Units - the Value Proposition 02/12/09
Producers  - sell Units to investors and consumers 02/12/09
…  at a discount to the physical market price 02/12/09
…  obtaining an interest-free loan 02/12/09
…  locking in a sale price 02/12/09
…  but no longer participating in price increases ….or decreases 02/12/09
Investors  – hold a direct investment in energy with no return 02/12/09
....similar to an investment in gold... 02/12/09
...except that while gold may be pretty... 02/12/09
....it’s not as useful as gas or other energy 02/12/09
Consumers  - lock in the price of future consumption 02/12/09
Units are a simple but radical new  hybrid 02/12/09
Units lock in price like a futures contract… 02/12/09
… but there is no right to delivery; no expiry date, and no gearing 02/12/09
Units are similar to an Exchange Traded Fund within a partnership framework…. 02/12/09
… .with the added attraction that they are  redeemable  in payment for energy 02/12/09
Issue –  Liquidity : Investor sellers of Units may not find Investor buyers 02/12/09
No Problem!  Consumers will buy if the Unit price falls below physical gas market price 02/12/09
...because they would profit by buying Units and redeeming them against consumption 02/12/09
Issue –  Security : will a Unit be honoured when presented in payment? 02/12/09
No Problem!  Sellers and Buyers are members of a Gas  Clearing Union 02/12/09
Conventionally, sellers may give buyers interest-free credit –or  time to pay Buyer 02/12/09 Credit Value Seller
Banks act as credit intermediaries, to provide trust through implicit guarantee 02/12/09 Bank Seller Buyer
Or sellers enter into forward purchase bilaterally or  over the counter Buyer 02/12/09 Forward Sale Seller
Clearing Houses act as risk intermediaries, to provide trust through implicit guarantee 02/12/09 Clearing House Seller Buyer
A  Clearing Union  guarantees credit from member sellers to member buyers… Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Guarantee Guarantee Seller
...with a  common bond  as market participants Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Guarantee Guarantee Seller
Both seller and buyer pay into a Pool for the use of a mutual Guarantee  Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Guarantee Guarantee Fee Fee Seller
Buyer settles credit in money, or  money’s worth   of Value acceptable to seller Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Guarantee Guarantee Fee Fee Value Seller
If a buyer defaults, Pool pays seller, and collects from buyer Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Collects Pays Seller
A service provider sets guarantee limits, handles defaults & manages the system Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Service Provider Services  Fee  Fee  Guarantee  Guarantee Fee  Seller
The Clearing Union Buyer 02/12/09 Pool Service Provider Services  Fee  Fee  Guarantee  Guarantee Fee  Value  Credit  Seller
Risk intermediaries are  service providers   not  middlemen 02/12/09
… managing risk without committing their own capital 02/12/09
Financing  – a project to capture flared gas
A  Custodian  holds the asset Assets Custodian Ownership
Contractors provide  money’s worth Assets Contractors Ownership Capital Equipment Custodian
Suppliers  -   may  invest equipment & materials
... but   must  invest agreed profit margin, thereby giving a stake in the outcome
Investors  - provide risk capital for costs suppliers cannot or will not invest  Assets Investors Ownership Risk Capital Custodian
Managers  provide Human Capital of time, expertise and experience Assets Investors Ownership Human Capital Financial Capital Managers Custodian
...and the project is completed
Outcome –  micro  Gas Pool Gas Pool Unit  Investors Consumers Equity Shares Managers, Producers gas $  or Units Redeemed $  Units  Units  Units
Re-financing  of debt-funded LNG train
$2 billion in conventional debt may be refinanced by Qatar
… ..by selling 400 million Units redeemable in payment for 1 MMbtu @ $5.00 each to Japan
Outcome –  macro  Gas Pool Gas Pool Unit  Investors Japan Equity Shares Managers, Qatar gas $  or Units Redeemed $  Units  Units  Units
Gas Pools are merged within a global  Master Partnership  framework agreement Master Partnership Financial Capital (Money, IP etc) Clearing Union Custodians % % $ 02/12/09 Human Capital ( Developers, Operators)
Master Partnership transcends borders through consensual agreement 02/12/09
… without adversarial relationships and problematic jurisdictions 02/12/09
...and without costly, complex and hierarchical global institutions
The Gas Pool is not an  Organisation ... 02/12/09
...it does not  own  anything,  do  anything,  employ   anyone, or  contract  with anyone... 02/12/09
… .it is simply a framework for cross border investment in gas infrastructure
The Gas Pool may lead the way to a new approach to the Kyoto carbon markets....
...as invented by Enron...
...where the Emperor has no clothes
Overheard at a traders’ conference.....
“ If you want to keep a cow healthy, you don’t regulate what comes out of it……”
“…… you regulate what goes in….”
A Gas Pool enables a Carbon currency based upon the  intrinsic  value of energy…
..rather than a market in  value-less  Units of CO2 emissions, imposed by governments
Gas is homogeneous and gas Units would be  globally  acceptable in exchange 02/12/09
Electricity Units – redeemable in Kilo Watt Hours – would be  regionally  acceptable
Other Units – redeemable in payment for carbon fuels - may be  nationally  acceptable
All may be priced against a Unit of measure – an  Energy Standard ....
...a fixed Unit of energy
Producer and consumer nations would massively increase energy prices
...and compensate populations with Energy Units
Consumers may choose to waste energy and redeem Units in payment
...or conserve energy and exchange Units for accommodation, food or other value
An Alternative Agenda for COP15 Copenhagen?
How? A Global Energy  Clearing Union
Energy  Unitisation  – a new mechanism to finance the transition to renewables
Dollars priced in energy: not energy priced in dollars
Who?  Producers  - GECF/Gas OPEC - led by Iran, Qatar, Russia
Who?  Consumers  - led by China, Japan, EU
Who?  Trusted Developer  – Norway
Thank You 02/12/09

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Gas Market Presentation 03 12 2009