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Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
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Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Anúncio
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST
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Changes in Trends of Consumer Behavior & Asset Allocation post Demonetization and GST

  1. Summer Internship Project A study on “Changes in Trend of Asset Allocation post demonetization & GST among HNI clients” Prepared by P Chandra Priyan (PGP Reg Number: PGP/0018/03) Post Graduate Diploma in Management Batch 2017-19 Under the guidance of Name: Anirban Mallick Name: Dr. Vinita Sahay Designation: Vice President Designation: Director IIM Bodh Gaya Priority Business Manager East, Central & UPR Organisation: Kotak Mahindra Bank ACADEMIC YEAR 2017-18 Submitted To Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Bodh Gaya Bodh Gaya, Bihar
  2. 2 | P a g e 1. STUDENT’S DECLARATION I undersigned P Chandra Priyan, a student of PGDM, Indian Institute of Management Bodh Gaya, Batch 2017-19, declare that summer internship project titled “A study on Changes in trend of asset allocation Post Demonetization and GST among HNI clients” is a result of my own work and my indebtedness to other work publications, references, if any, have been duly acknowledged. If I’m found guilty of copying any other report or published information and showing as my original work, I understand that I shall be liable and punishable by Institute, which may include ‘Fail’ or ‘Repeat study & re-submission of the report’ or any other punishment that Institute may decide. Name of Student: P Chandra Priyan PGP Reg Number: PGP/0018/03 Signature:
  3. 3 | P a g e 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am highly indebted to Mr. Anirban Mallick, Vice President & Priority Business Manager – East, Central & UPR, Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League, for his guidance and constant supervision, and his willingness to interact with me regarding my project details and always motivating me to strive for more. I also thank him for helping me understand the nuances of priority banking and motivating me to broaden my horizons and venture out to the markets and not to be just limited to my project work. It has helped me immensely to understand the nature of work and the importance of fieldwork, collecting and tabulating primary data. I would like to take this opportunity to express my deepest gratitude and special thanks to Mr. Pratim Kumar Basu, Associate Vice President & Area Manager, who was my corporate mentor in Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League, who took out his time to listen, suggest and always help me to think about alternatives regarding my project. This provided me the guiding light for navigating through my project with an esteemed organization like Kotak Privy. I express my sincere gratitude to my mentors over the duration of my project - to Ms. Patrali Bhattacharya, Chief Manager – Privy League, Golpark, Mr. Suman Roy, Mr. Somnath Dey, AVP Priority Banking and Mr. Jai Kedia from Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League for continuously guiding me, giving me a gist of the current trends in economy providing me any necessary help, answering my queries and keeping me involved in the projects. I am highly indebted to Dr. Vinita Sahay, Director, Indian Institute of Management Bodh Gaya, for her guidance and giving me an opportunity to do my summer internship at Kotak Mahindra Bank. I hope that I can build upon the knowledge gained here and represent the fraternity of IIM Bodh Gaya wherever I go and make a meaningful contribution towards my institute and the society in the years to come. I would like to express my sincere gratitude towards the members of Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League for their kind co-operation, encouragement and willingness to help. I would also take this opportunity to express my special gratitude and thanks to all those who took part in the survey and helped me complete my project by giving me their attention and time. My special thanks and appreciations also go to my fellow interns in developing the project. Finally, I express my deepest gratitude the Placement Committee, IIM Bodh Gaya for providing me this opportunity to intern at Kotak Mahindra Bank.
  4. 4 | P a g e 3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The objectives of the report are to study the changes in trends of asset allocation post demonetization & GST among HNI clients: ❖ Analysing Changes in trends of HNI Clients Post Demonetization & GST: ❖ Classifying HNI Clients into subgroups ❖ Increasing Digital Transactions amongst HNIs ❖ Extent of Digital Payment for Discretionary Expenditure ❖ Trends Pre-Demonetization ❖ Impact of Demonetization on HNIs: Going Cashless, Influx of capital into Banks, Paytm etc ❖ Impact of GST on HNIs: Tax Compliance ❖ Their Rising discretionary expenditure patterns ❖ HNI Consumers’ Tastes & Preferences ❖ Preferences of Asset Classes ❖ Asset Allocations ❖ Banking Requirements ❖ A Comprehensive Study of Changes in trends (Post Demonetization & GST) of the broad Asset Classes relevant for HNIs, along with study of digitalisation post demonetization: ❖ Increased Digital Modes of Payments ❖ Equity ❖ Debt ❖ Real Estate ❖ Alternative Investments ❖ Bridging the two components of the report to reach a conclusion based on observations and results of analysis. In the 2 Months of my internship period, the three prime assignments done as per mentors’ instructions, keeping in mind the objectives of the project assigned to me: ❖ I was given an assignment on ‘Analysis of Asset Preferences and Asset Allocation’ of the Corporate Doctors and Hospitals who are in KOLKATA. As part of this
  5. 5 | P a g e assignment, I created a detailed database of corporate doctors in Kolkata who were associated with the targeted hospitals – AMRI, Ruby Hospital & Desun Hospital. ❖ I visited these hospitals, talked to the 3 medical administrators from each hospital regarding their banking requirements for analysis and the ramifications of GST & demonetization on the hospitals & doctors, while also discussed possible modes of communication, fixed appointments with them and doctors and contrived follow up and a conversion plan. ❖ Interacting with corporate doctors associated with these hospitals through in- depth interviews and questionnaires regarding their asset class preferences, views and perceived ramifications on their personal asset allocations of demonetization and GST, their discretionary expenditure patterns, nuanced behaviours, banking preferences and requirements. As part of this, I also generated leads by obtaining mode of communicating with them regarding their banking requirements, which I duly submitted to my mentor assigned in Kotak Privy. ❖ The second main assignment given to me was to do a thorough ‘Financial, Data Collection Based & Banking Requirements Analysis’ of Trusts in Kolkata. I interacted with the higher authorities of the trusts. I hence generated leads and set appointments with them along with noting some handy observations about their financial health and requirements which were submitted to my mentor, and discussed with them regarding their operations, banking requirements, contriving a follow up plan suitably. ❖ The third part of my project was to do “A comprehensive study on changing trends of asset preferences (equity, debt, real estate and alternative investments and allocations)” along with observed preferences of HNIs which were noted down to be put in report. Apart from the assignments submitted, I had also partaken in the following: ❖ Observations & interviews from and with existing HNI clients of Kotak Privy regarding asset preferences, investment strategies adopted, trends regarding portfolios and personal ramifications post GST & Demonetization. ❖ Did a thorough study on the products and services offered by Kotak Mahindra Privy League.
  6. 6 | P a g e ❖ Attended Induction sessions, training sessions and a Conference on “GTA, TFX and Working Capital” – regarding products and services offered to HNIs. ❖ A Porter’s Five Model and SWAT Analysis for the Banking Industry & Kotak Mahindra Bank Respectively.
  7. 7 | P a g e TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents Page 1. Student’s Declaration…………………………………………………………………… 2 2. Acknowledgement…………………………………………………………….…........... 3 3. Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………4 4. List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………….10 5. List of Charts……………………………………………………………………………. 11 6. Industry Overview……………………………………………………………………….13 a) Basic overview of industry b) Porter’s Five Model c) Major players 7. Company Overview………………………………………………………………………21 History Mission, Vision Management Products Overview of Different Departments SWOT Analysis of Kotak Mahindra Bank 8. Review of Literature…………………………………………………………………….30 9. Introduction to Topic……………………………………………………………………31 A general Discussion Impact of Digitalisation of Transactions: Emergence of Digital Banking, Digital transactions A brief about HNIs A brief about Demonetization & GST 10. Research Methodology………………………………………………………………...37
  8. 8 | P a g e (A) Introduction (A.1) PHASE I (A.2) PHASE II (A.3) PHASE III (B) Rationale for study (C) Statement of Problem (D) Significance of Problem (E) Research Objectives (F) Scope of Study (G) Research Hypothesis (H) Research Design (I)Data Sources & Collection (J) Sampling Design (I) Sample Size ii) Sampling Method (K) Sampling Unit 11. Limitations of the Project……………………………………………………………44 12. Data Analysis & Interpretation……………………………………………………. 45 A) Findings from Phase I (from Professionals like Corporate Doctors, Charter Accountants etc.) B) Some Responses from Professionals C) Some Interesting Responses/Leads from Trusts D) Data Analysis Based on Total Data Responses Received E) Results from Secondary Data Sources F)) Findings from Phase III (from study of the broad-based asset classes) Equity Hypothesis Testing: Linking Practical Markets to CAPM Model Debt Changes in Trends in Debt Real Estate Key Trends Observed in Real Estate Alternative Investments
  9. 9 | P a g e 13. Key Findings & Suggestions Based on Primary Data………………………………77 Findings & Observations: Suggestions 14. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….79 15. Annexure ……………………………………………………………………………......80 16. Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………….83 17. Glossary of Terms………………………………………………………………………84
  10. 10 | P a g e 4. LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Products offered by Kotak Mahindra Bank Table 2: Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League Personal Banking plans eligibility criteria Table 3: Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League Business Banking plans eligibility criteria Table 4: Comparison of features across Privy League Prima and Optima plans Table 5: Analysis of Digitalization – Banking, Transactions Post Demonetization & GST Table 6: Responses Received from Medical administrator Table 7: Responses from Professionals Table 8: Individual Response Analysis Table 9. Asset Allocation of HNI Clients over the years. Table 10: Preferences of Asset Classes Across Profession Classes amongst HNIs Table 11: Returns, Correlations & Volatility Analysis of Some Indices pre-note-ban & GST Table 12: Returns, Correlations & Volatility Analysis of Some Indices post note-ban & GST Table 13: Beta, Capital Returns & Other info of Some Key Sectoral Sector Pre-& Post-Note Ban & GST Table 14: Hypothesis Testing Data Table 15: Prices, Sales & New Launches of Realty Projects across various cities in 2017 Table 16. Changes in Price, Sales & New Launches compared to previous years
  11. 11 | P a g e 5. LIST OF CHARTS Figure 1: Porter’s Five Model Diagram Figure 2. % Of Trust Funds Catering to Type of Owner Class - Those who've I contact Figure 3 Percentage of Respondents who felt Demonetization & GST Benefitted them Figure 4: Respondents Facing Issues Post Demonetization & GST Figure 5: Risk Appetite of Respondents Figure 6. Influence/Authority over Financial Decisions Taken by Individuals Figure 7. Income Allocation Preferences of Respondents Figure 8. Most Desired Luxury Vehicle Figure 9. Most Preferred Banking Partner Figure 10 Most Preferred Asset Classes over the period of 2015-2018, with comparisons Figure 11 Most Preferred Asset Classes over the period of 2015-2018, with comparison Figure 12 Asset Allocations Proportions From 2014-2018 Figure 13. Most Preferred Asset Across HNI Professions Figure 14 Percentage of Clients who wish change their asset class preferences post disruptions Figure 15 Comparing the Stability in Preference of Asset Classes across 2016 & 2017 Figure 16. Preference of Asset Classes: Comparing Results from Primary & Secondary Data Figure 17 Trend of Nifty Index since 2015 Figure 18. Average Annual P: E Ratio of BSE Sensitive Index Figure 19. Annual Growth Rate of Some Equity & Diversified Funds (Over 2013-2018 Ist Qt.) Figure 20 Capital Return vs. Risk(Beta) Plot Post Note-Ban & GST Figure 21. Trend of Risk Free Asset: 10 Year Bond Yield
  12. 12 | P a g e Figure 22 Looking at the % Change in Bond Yield Pre-Demonetization & GST & Post it along with increased Volatility Figure 23. Annual Growth Rate of Long Term Debt Funds: Decreasing Returns Figure 24. Increasing Investment into Alternative Investments over the years.
  13. 13 | P a g e 6. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Banking Sector In the contemporary paradigm, the banking sector is synonymous to the barometer of any economy. Such is the pivotal role it plays in sustaining any economy financially. We call a barometer as it directly reflects the macroeconomic scenarios prevalent, and hence reflects the economic muscle or the depravity of the same of a nation. The banking sector, along with the RBI forms the backbone of our financial sector, with the SEBI acting as the watchdog of the securities. Any iota of change in commodity prices, capital markets, global macroeconomic conditions, political etc. has decisive implications at a macro as well as a miniscule level. These changes in trends alter the banking sector, its policies, interest rates, and hence the investment and spending patterns of households and organizations, hence also influencing individualistic characteristics and consumption, saving and investment behaviors. The banking sector is the section of the economy devoted to the holding of financial assets for others, investing those financial assets as leverage to create more wealth and the regulation of those activities by government agencies.. Regulation of Banking Activities In order to avert banks from engaging in dangerous and excessively risky activities which can threaten an economy, Governments, with the help of the central banks generally bind the banks by enacting laws to limit their activities. Being the underpinning of economies, these laws help preventing bank panics and crises and also help in building a stringent financial framework. Oftentimes, these laws and restrictions are implemented as a result of crises and bank failures/panics in the past. The entire banking sector's and system hinges on the core factor of trust. Without it, not many would deposit money, and hence banks would not be able to use that money to give loans, invest and fuel economic growth. Hence, regulations are imperative to create that trust.
  14. 14 | P a g e Banking Industry: General Overview Via Porter’s Five Model Figure 1: Porter’s Five Model Diagram Competitive Rivalry Within Industry The banking industry is considered highly competitive, hence being the strongest in the Porter’s Five Model. This industry is an old one, and almost everyone who is need of banking products and services, is already a part of it. Hence, with this customer base, the paramount task is to attempt to lure clients away from competitor banks. In order to do so, bank do tend to differentiate themselves, although core business is same, in comparison to their competitors in the following respects: • Financing • Interest rates • Investment services • Nuanced Products • Scale • Scope • Relationship Banking Competitve Rivalry Within Industry HIGH Threats of New Entry MEDIUM Bargaining Power of Customers LOW/HIGH (Depends on Type of Customer) Threat of Substitutes HIGH Bargaining Power of Suppliers Depends on type of customer
  15. 15 | P a g e • Targeted Customers • Work Culture • Mission & Vision • Staff & Personal • Staff Training (Eg. Approach towards the customers) • Dividend Policies • Branding & Positioning This industry is highly customer centric, and hence banks business starts and ends with customers, hence customers are given considerable impetus, as this is what drives the revenues. Oftentimes, this cutthroat competition is to determine which bank can offer the best and fastest services. This could cause banks to experience a lower ROA (Return on Assets), leading to falling profitability and this acts as a pivotal litmus test for banks to prove their mettle in market. Given the nature of the industry it is more likely to see further consolidation in the banking industry. Major banks tend to prefer to acquire or merge with other banks than to spend money marketing and advertising. Due to government liberalization and globalization policy, banking sector became open for everybody. In India, the factors that have contributed to increase in rivalry are: • Number of players: Various banks and non-financial institutions are fighting for the same pie, hence intensifying the competition. • Market growth rate: India has one of the biggest markets, and growth rate in Indian banking industry is also very high. This has ignited the competition. • Supportive Demography: India has a vast population, and is ought to overtake China in near future, and has a young, literate population, who understand the importance of banking. • Digitalisation: The digitalisation of transactions and banking are aimed at bring in financial inclusion, to increase the number of banking customers, which will gain call for more competition to pursue those new customers.
  16. 16 | P a g e • Low switching cost: One of the industry elements that intensifies the importance of competition is the relatively low switching costs that consumers face, especially in the retail and commercial banking areas. • Mildly differentiated Products & Services: Almost every bank provides similar services, since the core functions of banks are the same. Also, there is a certain level of diffusion of ideas and knowledge spill-overs due to interbank migration of customers and staff, which leads to a certain level of similarity in terms of services and technology, hence increasing the level of competition. Yet, the banks do fundamentally differ in various aspects as discussed earlier. • Supportive Government Policies: There are low regulations to start a new business post the liberalisation policies post 1991, and also the removal of various barriers to entry. Also, the push for financial inclusion put forward the Government has also given an opportunity for the banking industry to widen its customer base across different regional areas. Threats of New Entry There is a moderate threat of new entry for banks in India, despite the regulatory and capital requirements of starting a new bank, as new banks do come up once in a while. The threat arises due to fact that the new banks, specialising in a certain region and may cater to the needs of a certain segment, and causing a certain level of disruption by imbibing a certain portion of another bank’s customers and staff. Internationally, with a large number of banks entering the market every consequent year, the threat of new entrants should be extremely high. However, due to mergers and bank failures the average number of total banks decreases by roughly 253 a year. A core reason for this is, what is arguably, the biggest barrier of entry for the banking industry, trust. Role of ‘Trust’ as an Entry Barrier in the Banking System: ❖ As the Banking Industry deals with other people's money and financial information, new banks struggle to operate initially. Due to the nature of the industry, people often prefer the household renown names, as safety and trust are of paramount value and is irreplaceable. ❖ Today, the banking industry has become multidimensional and dynamic, having undergone considerable consolidation. The leading banks seek to serve all of a customer’s financial needs. This furthers the role of trust as a barrier to entry for new banks entering the system,
  17. 17 | P a g e and looking to compete with major banks, as consumers find it convenient to hold the majority of accounts in one bank itself, and don’t wish to get into unnecessary hassle. ❖ Although it is very difficult for new banks to enter the industry offering the established trust of pre-existing banks, or build a brand image, and offer a plethora of services as a major bank, it is fairly easy for one to open up a smaller bank operating on the regional level. In this industry, as mentioned earlier, product differentiation is low and exit is difficult. We see intense competition and mergers and acquisitions, as banks attempt to stay ahead of their competitors. Government policies are supportive to start a new bank. There are less statutory requirements needed to start a new venture. Also, banks attempt to achieve economies of scale through usage of technology and selecting training manpower. The threat of new entrants as a significant force within the industry is relatively small. The primary obstacles for potential new entrants wishing to offer financial services on a large scale are the massive amount of capital required, the length of time required to establish brand identity, and the numerous and cumbersome government regulations that apply to the operation of banks. Threats of Substitutes The threat of substitute products has become increasing by the day and is very high. There is an influx of various non-banking financial institutions, which provide various specialised services which are oftentimes directed at a certain segment of the market. These specialized financial services were earlier only available from banks. Examples of such disruptive substitute products like payment processing and transfer services, credit unions etc. such as Paytm, Tez, NASA Federal Credit Union etc., or the disruption created by Bajaj Finserv. Payment processing and transfer services in India have disrupted various industries such as e- commerce, banking etc. The quantum of digital payments saw a spike post demonetization, and its convenience in usage has made it popular in the country. Also, since the idea of digital India has been pushed by the Government, this aligns the objectives of these companies with that of the Government. The intrusion of these substitute services tends to cause a loss of revenue for pre-existing banks.
  18. 18 | P a g e There are other substitutes for banks like mutual funds, stocks (shares), government securities, debentures, gold, real estate etc. So, there is a high threat from substitutes, and although the banks also provide these services, firms are emerging which specialise in each of these asset allocations. Eg: Manappuram for Gold, Motilal Oswal for Equity, which are also flamboyantly advertised regarding their expertise. Bargaining Power of Suppliers The two main suppliers for a bank are: • Depositors who supply the primary resource of capital • Employees who supply the resource of labour (physical & mental) In regard to depositors, the situation is essentially the same as that delineated under the bargaining power of consumers. There are two kinds of depositors and customers of a bank- a) Retail customers b) HNI customers Individual retail depositors have relatively little bargaining power, which to an extent depends on the volume of deposits made. But taken as a whole, their bargaining power is considerable. As far as HNI clients or corporates are concerned, they are generally given certain privileges as a part of priority banking, and they tend to have better bargaining power, due to the volume of deposits made, and the capital they provide the banks. A good approach in dealing with this market force would be to work diligently and meticulously to attract new clients and to increase the extent to which existing depositors hold funds and access services, and to retain creditworthy customers and get rid of defaulters. In regard to the bargaining power of suppliers of labour, individual suppliers and employees have little bargaining power, since substitutes are available in plenty, other than top level executive employees. Banks can address its overall bargaining power by offering lucrative salaries and benefits to keep attrition rates low.
  19. 19 | P a g e Bargaining Power of Existing Customers The overall bargaining power of existing customers is an important factor influencing the industry. Again, here, the bargaining power of different segments of customer-base differs: a) Retail: Individual consumers, especially in the retail banking marketplace, have relatively little bargaining power since the loss of any one account has a minimal impact on a bank’s bottom line. However, if we look at the aggregate, bargaining power of consumers is higher since banks cannot afford to suffer mass desertion of customers, especially to rival banks. b) HNI: Corporates and high net worth individual (HNI) clients have relatively higher bargaining power, simply because of their volume of deposits and investments. These clients generally come under the priority banking segment, which caters to their individual needs and requirements. Hence, losing a high net worth individual would mean the loss of sizable books and hence a source of revenue, which can very well affect the bank's profitability. Banks generally solve the issue of customer bargaining power by: • Extending attractive offers to potential new clients • Making incessant efforts to persuade existing customers to open additional accounts and sign up for additional services. This strategy can be very useful for high net worth individuals, who generally tend to have more than one account in their family. These tactics to curb ‘free exit’ are aimed at increasing the switching cost for consumers by making it cumbersome and in a way creating “barriers to exit and relocate”. It is this technique of free entry but not free exit which could help them retain a certain section of their client-base. Major Players in Banking Sector The banking sector has been emerging decently over the years. With NPAs increasing for public sector banks, private sector banks are performing comparatively better. Some of the major players of this industry are listed below. • HDFC Bank: Housing Development Financial Cooperation Bank Limited, commonly called as HDFC Bank is the largest bank of India in terms of market capitalisation.
  20. 20 | P a g e Headquartered in Mumbai, it was incorporated in August 1994. As of 27 May 2018, HDFC Bank has a market capitalisation of ₹ 521654.50 crore. • Kotak Mahindra Bank: Kotak Mahindra Bank is an Indian private sector bank headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, being the second largest bank in terms of market capitalisation. It started as a non-banking company named as Kotak Mahindra Finance Limited (KMFL) in 1985. In February 2003, it became the first nonbanking finance company to get banking license from the RBI. • SBI: State Bank of India has a market capitalisation of ₹ 238241.86 crore, the third largest in Indian banking sector. It is the oldest existing bank in India, originally founded in 1806 under the name of Bank of Calcutta. Presently, this government-owned corporation has its headquarter in Mumbai. • ICICI Bank: ICICI (Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India) was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Mumbai with its registered office in Vadodara. As of 2018, it is the fourth largest bank of India in terms of market capitalisation and second largest in terms of assets managed. • Axis Bank: Founded in 1993 as UTI Bank, Axis Bank is currently the third largest private sector bank in India. It has the fifth largest market capitalisation among the banks. It has its headquarter in Mumbai. As of May 2018, assets managed by ICICI is around ₹ 601467.66 crore and has a market capitalisation of ₹138266.96 crore. The above-mentioned banks are the top five in terms of market capitalisation. Other major banks include IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank, Bandhan Bank, RBL Bank, Federal Bank, Indian Bank, Allahabad Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank & Canara Bank.
  21. 21 | P a g e 7. COMPANY OVERVIEW History Kotak Mahindra Bank is an Indian private sector bank headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra. It is the 4th largest private sector bank in India and 2nd largest bank by market capitalisation. As of March 31, 2018, it has around 1388 branches across India and also has offices in London, New York, California, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Mauritius. It has an International Business Unit in GIFT city, Gujarat. The total consolidated Assets Under Management/Advice has a worth of ₹ 337720 crores with a PAT of ₹ 1789 crore for Q4F18. It started as a non-banking company named as Kotak Mahindra Finance Limited (KMFL) in 1985. In February 2003, it became the first nonbanking finance company to get banking license from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The following is a brief timeline showing some of its biggest milestones: ❖ In 1985, Kotak Mahindra Finance Limited starts bill discounting business ❖ In 1987, the company entered the lease and hire purchase business ❖ In 1990, auto finance was started ❖ In 1991, the IB division was established ❖ In 1992, Kotak Offers IPO, went public ❖ In 1995, KCC, a joint venture with Goldman Sachs Group ❖ In 1998, Kotak Entered the MFs markets with KMAMC ❖ In 2000, it started life insurance services ❖ In 2001, Stock broking services were provided ❖ In 2003, it was given license by RBI to operate as bank ❖ In 2004, it entered into ARC (Asset relocation) business ❖ In 2005, it Launched real estate fund ❖ In 2008, it opened international office in Dubai and Entered into alternative assets and wealth management segment ❖ In 2009, it launched pension fund ❖ In 2014, Kotak acquired Pinebridge MF ❖ In 2015, strategic merger with ING Vysya Bank Ltd., hence creating a ₹ 2 trillion institution (consolidated)
  22. 22 | P a g e ❖ In 2016, it acquired equity shares of Institutional Investor Advisory Services India Ltd. and Airtel M Commerce Services Ltd Co. (AMSL) ❖ In 2017, RBI approved setup of Kotak Infrastructure Debt Fund Limited and acquired BSS Microfinance Pvt. Ltd. Visions and Values Kotak Mahindra Bank has worked over these years based on five core values: ❖ Modesty and approachable ❖ Mutual respect and transparency ❖ Passion & Drive to achieve ❖ Entrepreneurial approach ❖ Ethics with a good corporate governance mindset These five core values have helped Kotak to achieve their goals and their visions. Its four visions are: ❖ The global Indian financial services brand ❖ The most preferred employer in financial services ❖ Trust Creation ❖ Value Creation Management The Executive Board of Kotak Mahindra Group comprises of some of the prominent people of financial world. Top Executives Designation Uday Kotak Executive Vice Chairman and Managing Director Dipak Gupta Joint Managing Director Shanti Ekambaram President – Consumer Banking Arvind Kathpalia President and Group Chief Risk Officer D Kannan Group Head – Commercial Banking
  23. 23 | P a g e Gaurang Shah President – Asset Management, Insurance and International Business Jaideep Hansraj CEO – Wealth Management and Priority Banking Jaimin Bhatt President & Group CFO KVS Manian President- Corporate, Institutional & Investment Banking Mohan Shenoi President & COO Narayan SA President – Commercial Banking & Retail Broking Venkattu Srinivasan Group Head – Asset Reconstruction and Structured Credit Products Kotak Mahindra Bank provides various products targeted to various customer segment. Table 1: Products offered by Kotak Mahindra Bank PERSONAL Accounts: savings account, current account, corporate salary accounts, Kotak 3-in-1 account, safe deposit locker Deposit: regular fixed deposit, recurring deposit, tax saving fixed deposit, senior citizen fixed deposit, sweep- in facility Cards: credit cards, debit cards, forex/prepaid cards Loans and insurances Investments: mutual funds, portfolio management services, sovereign gold bond scheme, demat account, Kotak ASBA facility, National Pension System BUSINESS Accounts: current accounts
  24. 24 | P a g e Loans and working capital requirement Trade services: domestic trade, international (import/export) CORPORATE Business financing: long term finance, working capital finance, structured finance, debt capital markets Trade financing: trade and supply chain finance, services for exporters & importers Automated payment and collection through CMS Transaction management: Account maintenance, Escrow services, digital banking, nodal accounts Forex services WEALTH Investment management: risk analysis, asset allocation, investment products, investment process, research & execution Wealth structure: trust & estate planning, family office Banking solutions: personal banking, business banking, digital banking Source: https://www.kotak.com/en.html In addition to the above-mentioned services, Kotak also provide Priority Banking through its ‘Privy League’ division. Here in Kolkata, Privy League operates from Park Street Apeejay House and Golpark Branch. In Privy League, priority clients get a wider range of benefits and services, apart from normal vanilla products and service. Various services provided by Privy League are NRI-specific privileges, priority servicing, foreign exchange, convenience banking and transaction solutions, preferential pricing, trade solutions. Privy League provides both personal and business banking solutions.
  25. 25 | P a g e Privy League Personal Banking There are four plans: Prima, Optima, Insignia and Maxima. Out of these four plans, Privy League Maxima Plan is available only in selected locations. These plans target specific customer segment based on the following eligibility criteria: Table 2: Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League Personal Banking plans eligibility criteria PRIMA Average Monthly Balance (AMB) of over ₹ 2 Lakhs in Savings Accounts OR Average Monthly Balance of over ₹5 Lakhs in Current Accounts OR Relationship Value (RV) of ₹10 Lakhs while maintaining an AMB of over ₹50,000 in Savings Accounts or Currents Accounts OPTIMA Average Monthly Balance of over ₹ 10 Lakhs in Savings Accounts OR Average Monthly Balance of over ₹ 15 Lakhs in Current Accounts OR Relationship Value of ₹ 30 Lakhs while maintaining an AMB of over ₹1 Lakhs in Savings Accounts or Currents Accounts INSIGNIA Relationship Value of ₹ 1 Cr while maintaining an AMB of over ₹2 Lakhs in Savings Accounts MAXIMA Relationship Value of ₹2 Lakhs while maintaining an AMB of over ₹ 50,000 in Savings Accounts Source: https://www.kotak.com/en/personal-banking/privy-league.html
  26. 26 | P a g e Privy League Business Banking To become a part of Kotak Mahindra Privy League, any one of the following conditions can be satisfied: Table 3: Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League Business Banking plans eligibility criteria Parameter Privy League Prima Privy League Optima 1 Current Account Value AMB above ₹ 5 Lakhs AMB above ₹ 15 Lakhs 2 Combined Current, Savings and Term Deposit Value Above ₹10 Lakhs; with min CA AMB of ₹1 Lakh -- 3 Quarterly Forex throughput USD 1.5 Lakhs; with min CA AMB of ₹1 Lakh USD 3 Lakhs; with min CA AMB of ₹2.5 Lakhs 4 Relationship Value -- Above ₹30 Lakhs; with min CA AMB of ₹2.5 Lakhs Source: Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League Business Banking booklet Comparison of features across Privy League Prima and Optima plans The following is the comparison chart of Prima and Optima plans: Table 4: Comparison of features across Privy League Prima and Optima plans Sl. No. Features & Benefits Privy League Prima Privy League Optima 1 Dedicated service delivery associate No Yes 2 Discount on locker rentals 25% 50%
  27. 27 | P a g e 3 Complimentary Privy League VISA Signature Debit Card No Yes 4 Preferential rates on mutual funds 1.25% through investment a/c; 1.5 % through AMC application form 0.9% through investment a/c; 1.1 % through AMC application form 5 Discount on Kotak World Travel Card issuance charges 25% Free 6 Issuance of Best Compliments Card Free Free 7 DEMAT account maintenance charges 100% waiver 100% waiver 8 DEMAT sell transaction charges 0.03% 0.02% 9 Trinity account opening charges 50% waiver 100% waiver 10 Brokerage levied by Kotak Securities Intraday:0.049% Delivery:0.49% Intraday:0.029% Delivery:0.29% 11 Priority Pass issuance charges 50% waiver Free 12 Preferential tariff on Forex Yes Yes 13 Preferential rates on trade Yes Yes 14 Invitation to exclusive lifestyle events No Yes
  28. 28 | P a g e 15 Privy League Select – Quarterly Lifestyle Magazine e-version Physical/e-version 16 Special alliances and exclusive discount offers from alliance partners Yes Yes 17 Investment planning Risk profiler Financial planning through Kotak Private Banking system Source: Kotak Mahindra Bank Privy League Business Banking booklet SWOT ANALYSIS FOR KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK STRENGTHS ❖ Professional Banking ❖ Very neat and clean books – very good corporate management. ❖ Merger with ING Vysa Bank widened presence in South India: Hence, could penetrate the South market after the merger ❖ Kotak’s investment advisory is top notch: Instead of just vanilla products, offers for specific specialised and individual based portfolios. ❖ Apt Work Culture WEAKNESS ❖ Compared to Yes Bank who hosts tournaments etc., Kotak spends very less on advertisement and has scope there. ❖ Marketing Done very deep by ICICI Bank, maybe scope for Kotak Mahindra Bank. ❖ The digital platform on Apple devices could be better ❖ Lower market share in TFX domain where Axis Bank is predominant OPPURTUNITIES ❖ Strategic acquisitions of microfinance companies can help them cater to a higher proportion of rural, semi-rural population
  29. 29 | P a g e ❖ Can deepen customer base even more, with bank branches near strategic areas. ❖ Strategic acquisition of other Private Banks THREATS ❖ Emerging Banks like Bandhan Bank which also provides similar interest rate for savings accounts is emerging in Eastern India and can lead to migrate of both clients and staff. Hence, it can be considered a threat ❖ Immense competition amongst the private banks, especially HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank ❖ Potential financial innovation from other banks can give them a first mover advantage ❖ Credit Risk: Quality of customers taking loans; persistent problem which may lead to an issue of NPA. ❖ Macro News: Such as crude oil instability, Fed rate cut/hike may lead to RBI’s changes in monetary policy, eg. May alter the interest rates, leading to people preferring to keep cash rather than putting it in banks. All have these kinds of annotations. ❖ Growth of Microfinance companies and other NBFCs which offer very close, but slightly differentiated products, can cause issues ❖ Increasing Attrition Rate in Banking Sector – inter-banking switches.
  30. 30 | P a g e 8. REVIEW OF LITERATURE The Review of Literature presented below recognises the work done so far in the field of present study – HNIs, asset allocations etc. My project has imbibed some of the key details from these studies and researches keeping in mind the Indian markets. • Abhinav Joshi, Vidhi Dheri, prepared a report by CBRE for CREDAI NATCON’17 analysing the changing trends in the real estate markets and how various trends are emerging along with emergence of technology in this segment. Light was also shed on the key implications due to RERA Act, Private Equity Investment in this segment and the initial wrath of demonetization. • Lokesh Chhabra, Sachin Ghai, Amar Johri and Saurabh Rawat in their case study compared the Priority Banking services of Kotak Mahindra Bank against six of its competitor banks of India. • Karvy Private Wealth in their Annual Wealth Reports – 2016 and 2017. It enumerated the changing trends of all assets and also changing trends of HNI clients and how their asset preferences had varied along with their asset allocations. It was a rich source of secondary data. • Kotak Wealth Management’s annual wealth reports 15,16 and 17. This was a rich source of valuable information regarding HNI tastes and preferences, their income allocations, their requirements, their need-based products, their increasing exposure to equity, their lifestyles. It also shed some light on demonetization trends and how it affected the economy and the banks. • Rowland T. Moriarty, Ralph C. Kimball and John H. Gay looked into how commercial banks are placing increasing emphasis on establishing and maintaining banking relationship with important corporate customers. In this article, the focus of the study was to describe the concept of Relationship Banking and the benefit it holds for both the customers and bank itself. Then they examined the organisation and relationship management function including the role of the relationship manager and common problems connected with the implementation of relationship strategy.
  31. 31 | P a g e 9. INTRODUCTION TO TOPIC A GENERAL DISCUSSION – DEMONETIZATION & GST IN DIGITALIZING INDIA Albert Einstein famously stated: “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world”. It is this compounding which was attempted to be forced into the system post demonetization & GST. The conversion of the cash in hand into the banking system, i.e. unaccounted money and other sources of money into the banking system with the help of technology and digitalised payments was the prime change which was observed in the Indian context. This extra money kept in banks, say in savings accounts is what brought people to invest more in asset classes such as equity, mutual funds etc. to beat the bane of inflation. This choice of the asset classes was purely based on an individual’s personal goals and aspirations, his/her risk appetite etc. Investing is a very broad and a fundamental concept. But, given the current times and the perennial bane of inflation, rising crude oil prices, expected RBI interest rate hike, market volatility, one just cannot be one-dimensional while investing and needs to create an ‘economic moat’ around his castle of aspirations and personal goals. This is where asset allocation steps in – and unlike the very concept of investment, is largely subjective and may vary across various broad features such as gender, age, wealth, employment, geographical location, family background etc. Eventually, all these lead to the culmination of one allocating his/her assets based on their understanding of the assets. This risk vs. return conundrum lies at the heart of the idea of asset allocation. Asset allocation is an investment strategy that aims to balance risk and return by apportioning a portfolio's assets according to an individual's goals, risk appetite and investment horizon. The asset classes I’d be studying here, considering the Indian context are – a) Equity b) Debt c) Real Estate d) Alternative Investments Each of these asset classes have their own characteristic nature, that determines their risk and return, which will be discussed in the later sections, keeping in mind the timeframe given. Here, in the Indian context, over the past three years, there have been disruptive events which have altered the paradigm under which our economy operates. Some of these are:
  32. 32 | P a g e a) Demonetization (8th November, 2016) b) Implementation of GST (1st July 2017) c) RERA Act (1st May, 2016) IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION OF TRANSACTIONS: EMERGENCE OF DIGITAL BANKING, DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS Table 5: Analysis of Digitalization – Banking, Transactions Post Demonetization & GST Pre-Demonetization a) Considerable amount of assets of HNIs was in CASH. b) There was unaccounted money from various sources (e.g say for doctors, fees from private consultation was unaccounted). c) Real Estate and other physical assets were stocked/hoarded due to their cash-based transaction nature, and high-volume transactions took place in gold and real estate. d) Digital Banking, Digital Transactions were limited to certain sections of society, generally the youth and the salaried individuals. e) Considerable amount of lumpsum transactions would occur f) E-Wallets etc. were just emerging as a source of buying from online stores like PayTM Mall, Myntra etc. Post Demonetization a) This phase saw the inflow of capital into banks, increasing capital for banks to work with. b) Liquidity decreased and no. of card transactions decreased c) HNI customers were forced to align their considerable stock of cash and unaccounted money into the banking system d) They earnt an interest rate in banks, hence creating a surplus value e) This surplus value was to be allocated into asset classes – which was generally into equity & mutual funds, due to higher returns
  33. 33 | P a g e f) There was an immense push towards Digital Transactions, be it via banks or via portals like PayTM etc. g) Increased Digital Transactions via banks made it easier for various pre-existing customers h) The earlier hoarding of real estate ceased, due to excessive cash-based transactions which were happening, and shift towards a formal sector restricted the cash-based transactions using unaccounted money. The similar case goes for other physical assets like Gold. i) The value of transactions for mobile banking grew 30% j) The biggest winner/benefactor of demonetization were the Banks with apt digital tools and other E-Portals like Paytm, Tez, Reliance Jio etc. k) Amongst asset classes, equity, mutual funds and alternative investments benefitted from the implementation of demonetization and saw broad based investing l) MAJOR incentives for doing transactions digitally, hence everyone does it now -e.g. BHIM app, UPI etc Post GST a) GST majorly affected the traders, enforcing tax compliance and bringing in a uniform tax system b) Post GST, there has been incentives to digital transactions c) Recently, proposal has been put forward to bring up to Rs.100 discount on digital payments plans d) HNIs started looking for tax havens – hence widely diversified their portfolios from digital money to PPFs to equity to minimise their tax incidence. e) Hence, for digital money in wallets, since there isn’t any chargeable tax, people preferred to put it in those wallets so that they can use it to buy goods like phones, etc. This served as a source of e-money.
  34. 34 | P a g e Also, there exists the continual bane of inflation, recent hike in crude prices, and the weakening rupee have significantly contributing in shaping the market sentiments in India. Hence, digital transactions were modified in a way to stay ahead of inflation, and hence the increased spending through online portals, and through digital cash. Then, there are the coming general elections, monsoon season etc which can alter the market sentiments in India, hence also altering the climate under which investors can allocate their assets. All of these factors have spill-over effects on each asset and hence shaping investor behaviour patterns according to their risk appetite and expertise. For example, a weakening rupee and trade restrictions can have detrimental effect on an importer in India who imports from US, especially since India imports around 80% of its crude oil demands, hence pushing up crude prices, putting inflationary pressure on goods. This may aggravative interest rates, hence altering the consumption and investing behaviours of individuals. Hence, here I attempt to study the assets, their allocations, and how HNIs have altered their allocations and shifted their investment preferences, risk appetite investment horizons etc. as mentioned above. A BRIEF ABOUT HIGH NET WORTH INDIVIDUALS The banking system starts and ends with the customer. This is primarily because they both supply and demand capital for the banks. In the case of HNI clients, this fact is even more pronounced. The volume of cash inflow and outflow, i.e the transactions value and the overall book value of HNI clients is unprecedented and unparalleled. So, who really are these HNI clients? HNIs are those individuals who possess surplus investable capital, oftentimes assumed to be at least around ₹2 crores in the Indian context. They face a situation of being indecisive regarding the surplus capital they possess and decisions to whether park it in an asset class or a set of asset classes – may choose to diversify his/her portfolio, and how much to allocate these. Sure, it is a tedious job. Hence, this is where advisories like Kotak Privy create a symbiotic relationship with them. Hence, they choose to allocate their capital via asset allocations into various channel based on their personal goals, individualistic factors, family backgrounds, risk appetite, investment horizons, urge to earn returns etc. According to estimates, the increase in number of HNIs was at 10% in FY17, minutely higher than FY16’s 7% with an accumulated net worth of ₹153 trillion. This yields to the suggestion
  35. 35 | P a g e that HNIs are creating wealth and the extra 3% increase must be contributed to the general niche economic climate prevalent now, with more or less a secular growth in sector, albeit recent trends in 2018. A BRIEF ABOUT DEMONETIZATION & THE GOODS & SERVICE TAX The Indian economy is a predominantly domestic-driven one, with the domestic sentiments have larger implications for Indian markets and domestic consumer behaviours than the global trends, which is in stark contrast to most other countries. It is the alteration of these market sentiments and consumer behaviours which shift and shape the asset allocations of individuals and corporations. Hence, keeping that in mind, it’d be safe to say that the major economic ramifications in India would be domestic in nature. The implementation of demonetization on 8th November, 2016 & the Goods & Service Tax (GST) on 1st July, 2017 were such key disruptors or structural reforms, which have created significant ramifications, hence shifting the economy’s paradigm. The rudimentary motives of each of these key disruptors were growth oriented and wished to bring stability and compliance oriented and can be briefly put up as ‘cleaning up the economy’. The demonetization or the note ban restricted liquidity, some of the main agendas being – ❖ Digital India ❖ Financial inclusion ❖ Curbing Unaccounted Money ❖ A shift from Informal Sector to Formal Sector
  36. 36 | P a g e Demonetisation More Capital in Bank Accounts Extra Surplus Capital in Banks via Interest Increase in Digital Transactions Spurt of Paying Through E-Wallets Emergence of E-Wallet, Spending Services Decrease in Cash Extra Money in Bank Invested in Equity, Mutual Funds etc. Real Estate Turning Formal - Lesser Cash Transactions Push For Financial Inclusion Goods & Service Tax Increased Compliance Search For Tax Havens E-Wallets & Cashless Transactions get incentives Increased investment in Equity, Mutual Funds
  37. 37 | P a g e Hence, any individual/HNI/Corporation associated with any of these agendas would be affected and there would be a change in trend, in a new paradigm. But how did it affect HNIs and their asset allocations and the asset classes? This is what would be studied in the forthcoming sections in detail. Similarly, GST was implemented to curb issues related to cascading of taxes, improve tax compliance, move towards a digital transactions climate, which reduces stress on cash, fostering a common market across the country, unifying the states, improving transparency. Since the implementation of GST had distinct implications for each sector, and for each asset class, it’d also bring about a change in trend for individuals and others associated who are involved or have invested in each of these parameters. These effects will be magnified for HNIs due to their superlative net-worth and diverse investment in various asset classes. Ex Ante, Ex Post Concepts Also, another important observation to be made is that demonetization is generally thought to have ex post implications since its announcement was not premeditated and hence the shifts would be brought about after it’s implementation, as observed in our country. In contrast, GST would have both ex ante and ex post implications since its implementation was premeditated and was announced after thoughtful consideration by the Government. Hence, in current global scenario, with trade embargos, increasing crude prices, inflation etc, in India it is the domestic disruptions like Demonetization, GST and the RERA Act which will have greater influence over the HNIs and their asset allocations. My project would aim to make meaningful observations and analyse the same to get a meaningful conclusion and suggest recommendations to Kotak Mahindra Bank. 10. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (A) INTRODUCTION I shall divide my research work into 4 phases which is according/as per to the timeline of my internship of 2 months at Kotak Privy:
  38. 38 | P a g e a) PHASE I: A Comprehensive Study of Corporate Doctors in Kolkata & Other Professionals: Trends of Asset Preferences & Allocations After Demonetization & GST b) PHASE II: A study on the Banking Requirements, preferences & working of Trusts in Kolkata c) PHASE III: A comprehensive study of trends of the broad asset classes: ❖ Equity ❖ Debt ❖ Real Estate ❖ Alternative Investments d) PHASE IV: Compiling, analyzing and comparing the results of the data from primary sources (questionnaires, in-depth interviews, observations) and secondary sources (Data from NSE website, SEBI website, RBI Website, articles, Wealth Reports etc.) and framing a report on my findings and inferences. **I shall hereby refer to these separate sub-projects as phase I, II, III, IV respectively from here on. (A.1) PHASE I My research work encompassed interacting and questioning potential HNI clients, since Kotak Privy (Priority Banking Department) deals with them and I was assigned there. Initially, I was assigned the target customer base of Professional Corporate Doctors in Kolkata, who earn considerable salaries and are potential target clients – AMRI, Ruby Hospital & Desun Hospital. My first phase research work encompassed: 1 Hereafter, all the terms of ‘pre-demonetization, demonetization to GST, and Post GST’ would pertain to the respective timeframes mentioned in the table Targeted Segment HNI Clients Analysing Factor Changes in Trend of their Asset Allocation & Preferences Timeframe to be studied1 a) Pre-Demonetization (24/11/15 to 8/11/16) b) Demonetization to GST (9/11/16 to 31/06/17) c) Post GST (1/07/17 to 22/05/2018)
  39. 39 | P a g e ❖ Studying impact of Digitalization post demonetization & GST: How it affected Asset Owners and asset classes ❖ Creating and maintaining a thorough database of these doctors from both primary & secondary sources ❖ Fieldwork – Collection of Data from Doctors from Hospitals after visits ❖ Field Visits & Calling up the doctors ❖ Profiling these potential clients ❖ Gather details about their perceptions and apprehensions about Demonetization & GST ❖ Their preferred asset classes ❖ How much do they spend from Online stores? ❖ Analyzing their Banking habits ❖ Discretionary & Non-Discretionary expense patterns ❖ Noting their Banking Requirements & Digital Exposures ❖ Segregating and mining out the potential clients from the large database created, after interaction for lead generation ❖ Reporting back to RM assigned and the Associate VP and submitting report for contriving a follow up plan These interactions were done via physical questionnaire sheets, personal in-depth interviews after getting appointments and visiting hospitals in person. Also, I was encouraged by my mentors to collect my project related information for other professionals (potential HNIs) as well – Charter Accountants, Professionals Lawyers, Top Executives of Firms etc. (A.2) PHASE II This phase encompassed my interactions with Trusts in Kolkata. Generally, these charitable trusts were owned by Large Corporations, professionals, religious organisations or certain clubs, some details and observations I shall disclose in the report further. Trusts were potential clients since they had large funds and it is of no surprise that Philanthropy was an emerging way of allocating their income, and also a potential safe haven from taxes. With around 73%2 of HNIs allocating income for philanthropy, it is safe to say trust funds can gain access to HNIs. My research work here encompassed: ❖ Profiling the Trusts based on various parameters 2 As read from Kotak Top of The Pyramid Report 2017
  40. 40 | P a g e ❖ Studying the Datapoints and segregating them based on reliability of information ❖ Interacting with people at various levels working with Trusts ❖ Learning about their current banking partners ❖ Lead Generation, fixing appointments and follow up plan ❖ Reporting back to RM and submitting the potential leads (A.3) PHASE III At this juncture, the objective was to segregate the data and do some data mining based on responses, comments and observations. Also, since the project was based on changing trends of asset allocations, it was imperative to observe and understand the asset classes. The following was done here: ❖ Choosing the appropriate broad-based asset classes – i) Equity ii) Debt iii) Real Estate iv) Alternative investments ❖ Making sub-classifications amongst HNI clients – o Professionals o Business/Self Employed o Retired o Salaried Employees based on observation ❖ Analysing the driving factors for asset allocations: Risk & Return ❖ Obtaining Data regarding trends in Equity, Debt, Real Estate markets ❖ Calculating the Returns, Risk of Nifty Indices and selective stocks under the 3 giving timeframes – Pre-Demonetization, Demonetization to GST & Post GST ❖ These trends were observed from data obtained from years 2015 to 2018 ❖ Exploring the Asset Allocations made by HNIs in these asset classes ❖ Analysing the Ramifications of Demonetization & GST on these asset classes ❖ Observing and Noting the changing preferences and asset allocation of HNI clients ❖ Analysing macroeconomic factors -inflation, yield rates of bonds etc. ❖ Comparing the data obtained from primary sources (Questionnaires, interviews etc) with secondary source data (Wealth Reports, RBI, SEBI, NSE, Moneycontrol websites) ❖ Finding correlation between various factors; For example, increasing returns in equity with increasing equity positions (B) RATIONALE FOR STUDY
  41. 41 | P a g e As discussed earlier, the prime rationale for this study is to understand the buoyancy of demonetization & GST, its effects such as: ❖ Increased digital platforms ❖ Digital payments like PayTM’s emergence ❖ Increased Capital Inflows to Banks ❖ Surplus Capital in Bank’s allocation towards various broad-based asset classes The attempt is to quantify the inflows into the assets after the disruptions in 2016 & 2017. These two events have vital ramifications for the economy, us having observed a shifting paradigm. Since Kotak Privy is premium banking services for priority customers who have a sizeable financial muscle, hence observing these trends for HNI clients and providing quantifiable observations can be a meaningful contribution to the organisation. Also, since the HNIs are heavy taxpayers, they contribute significantly to the engine of growth of our country, hence becoming important to analyse their risk appetite, investment horizons and return limits. With the increasing and overvalued equity markets in India, increased digital transactions, increasing crude prices, the perennial bane of inflation and trade embargo issues globally, it become imperative to study this crucial juncture of post demonetization and GST, which will have severe implications for the road ahead. It could indeed help at making the picture of current scenario better and possibly predict the performances of these asset classes in India. (C) STATEMENT OF PROBLEM In the current economic climate, there is cutthroat competition among private sector banks in India. With the incessant NPA issues engulfing public sector banks, with now almost similar digital service too being provided by banks, it provides a myriad of opportunities for private banks like Kotak Mahindra Bank to deepen its customer base, and with the push for financial inclusion, digital banking. The aim is to capture more market share, and with Kotak Bank having the second largest market cap for banks, there are plenty opportunities which can be harnessed. The statement: “Given the tumultuous times coming ahead – overvalued stocks, weakening rupee, RBI policies, increased digital transactions and with general elections around the corner in 2019, how exactly will the markets perform and how will the HNIs react to it and re-align their asset allocations in accordance to these?”
  42. 42 | P a g e Thus, it becomes important to study the changes in trends of asset performances and to correlate them with HNI customers’ changing preferences and trends, which can aid in understanding them better and can help bringing quality customers under the umbrella. (D) SIGNIFICANCE OF PROBLEM The problem is quite significant. Understanding the changing trends in asset behaviours, traction to high risk assets and equity post these events, and HNIs’ increasing preference for certain assets like equity and decreasing interest in debt or increasing investments in private equity or other alternative investments and increased philanthropic activities all can have a considerable impact on navigating the way forward and creating economic moats in the process. (E) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The research objectives are the following: • To see extent of integration of digital transactions into Banking system for HNI Clients • To comprehensively study of trends of the broad asset classes: in terms of value, risk, return and investment volume and opportunities • Make meaningful inferences from the results obtained from primary and secondary sources • To comprehensively analyze the HNIs asset allocations, investment patterns, financial decision taking, income allocations for discretionary and non-discretionary expenses, changing perceptions about asset classes, changing portfolio components • Using the results of the study to come up with meaningful inferences, making striking observations and make meaningful recommendations to Kotak Privy (F) SCOPE OF STUDY The study was conducted by visiting the following hospitals – AMRI, Ruby, Desun, interacting with Trust Funds in Kolkata – hence studying professionals and corporate heads (in case of certain trust funds). The study was conducted via questionnaires, in-depth interview and active observations. In the third phase, the study was done in Golpark & Park Street Office of Kotak Privy with due assistance from employees and mentors. Also, observations were made from client meetings held with RMs in office and also interviewing few clients. For the study of
  43. 43 | P a g e assets, although there are various asset classes such as insurance, FDs etc which are ever increasing due to financial innovations, my study was focussed on the broad-based asset classes which HNIs invest in majorly. (G) RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS The research hypothesis taken here is that the implementation of demonetization, GST, RERA etc. have caused a change in asset allocation amongst HNI Clients. (H) RESEARCH DESIGN In this study, I have used both descriptive research design – as the research is based on survey as well as correlational research design to meet the required objectives of the study and understand causal relations between the GST & note ban and the changing asset allocations, say for example increasing exposure to high return equity investments. (I) DATA SOURCES & COLLECTION In my study, I have used both primary as well as secondary data to navigate through my study. The primary sources of data were obtained via questionnaires, in-depth interviews and observations made during field visits to AMRI Hospital, Ruby Hospital & Desun Hospital and from Trusts Funds in Kolkata and during client meets in office. Also, certain data and information was obtained from employees of Kotak and RMs who have supported me thoroughly in aiding me to carry out surveys. The questionnaires used can be accessed in the annexures. As far as secondary data goes, the data sources were primarily used for trends in asset classes from 2015 to 2018, regarding prices of stocks, NAV of mutual funds, real estate prices and other basic info. They aided me in finding out annual growth rates, correlations, average yearly volatility, changing returns of assets, risks, beta value etc. Also, I used certain data from Wealth Reports published by Capgemini, Kotak and from other articles published for understand trends of HNIs. (J) SAMPLING DESIGN i) Sample Size
  44. 44 | P a g e Regarding my Phase I and Phase II assignments given, I covered around 68 Trust Funds (Some were Owners of Corporations) and 112 Doctors and other professionals, and 3 medical administrators of hospitals out of which I got 68 responses. II) SAMPLING METHOD The data was collected from professionals - corporate doctors, chartered accounts, analysts in consulting firms, service personnel, trust funds and through the trust funds also some entrepreneurs and owners. Convenience Sampling was used since the study had to be conducted in the vicinity of Kolkata – hence, AMRI, Ruby & Desun hospitals which could be covered. Also, since I had created a database of doctors, I could also cover some doctors and professionals over the telephone, attempting to fix appointments with them, so that my assigned mentors in Kotak Mahindra Privy League could pitch their proposition and discuss their banking requirements. (K) SAMPLING UNIT The project analysis was done on Microsoft Excel, and the tools used for the primary research i.e from questionnaires and observations were put in tables, arranged accordingly to give a coherent and consistent results. I used Excel to get the bar charts, histograms, pie-charts for comparisons. The hypothesis testing was done using Microsoft Excel, using the index function and ‘LINEST’ functions to find out the observed alpha, standard errors & t-statistic. Also, in Phase III, in order to compare performance of debt funds, equity indices, specific stocks, real estate market, I used the Excel Data Analysis Tool to get correlation coefficients, calculation of beta, and changes in percentages. 11. LIMITATIONS OF THE PROJECT The research methodology had the following limitations: • Geographical Limitation: The study was restricted to the location of Kolkata. Hence, the observed trends would reflect the patterns in the city and the preferences of the customers of Kolkata. This may or may not differ from the general trend in the country. • Response Bias: Since asset allocations and asset preferences are personalised topics, the respondent may have chosen to give erroneous responses.
  45. 45 | P a g e • Acquiescence Bias: The respondents may have chosen to agree to all the questions in a measure due to lack of seriousness or want to get over with it as soon as possible. • Barriers to Entry: Since my study encompassed the study of professionals like corporate doctors and owners of trust funds, it was at times quite difficult to make appointments with them and interact with them due to the nature of their jobs. Above this, there were various other barriers in hospitals which were faced. • Broad-Based Assets Studied: The assets classes studied by me were: Equity, Debt, Mutual Funds, Real Estate & Alternative Investments. These were broad-based assets, while there exist other asset classes such as insurance, pension funds, international assets etc. 12. DATA ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION Total No. of Doctors’ Details (Number, Address etc.) Collected 112 Total Database of Professionals Created 159 Total Number of Responses (Throughout Project) 65 Total Number of Datapoints for Trust Funds Contacted 68 Reliable Number of Contacts Retrieved 21 Interested in Kotak’s Product Trust Funds/Firms - Leads 4 I shall now share the results & findings from the responses received: A) FINDINGS FROM PHASE I (FROM PROFESSIONALS LIKE CORPORATE DOCTORS, CHARTER ACCOUNTANTS ETC.) LOCATIONS: AMRI Hospital, Dhakuria, Kolkata Ruby Hospital, Kolkata Desun Hospital, Kolkata
  46. 46 | P a g e PURPOSE OF VISIT: Kotak Privy League caters to HNI clients. Doctors being top professionals earn both corporate salary as well as domestic salary from appointments in clinics etc. Hence, these individuals were potential targets for Privy league to imbibe them as their customers and I was assigned to contact them via telephone or visit, create a database and to profile them for potential leads in future. Also, I was to assess their post demonetization and GST asset allocation trends, to observe the quantum of digitalization and to see how they have chosen to use the cash deposited in banks, how much have they familiarized with digitalization and what asset classes do they prefer the most and why do they do so. METHODS ADOPTED I initially directly went to the administration of the Hospital to talk to the medical administrator regarding. I spoke to the medical administrators regarding setting up an appointment with the RMs of Kotak Privy regarding products & services and also asked for permission to talk to the doctors formally or informally, since they are generally busy. I also circulated an online questionnaire regarding the same on LinkedIn to get responses from others. ISSUES FACED ❖ The first issue was to get an entry to talk to the medical administrators or doctors, since they were busy or reluctant to talk. ❖ Doctors, when responded, tended to be casual while responding, and I suspected a bias may have been caused from their original behaviour. Responses from online sources were comparatively more accurate by my estimates ❖ Getting appointment to meet doctors was difficult, since they were busy with their patients. Hence, I had to wait for them to get a break, and hence get responses from them. RESULTS FROM MY VISITS/INTERACTIONS VIA PHONE ❖ Got two prospective positive responses, leads from medical administrators at Desun Hospital and Ruby Hospital from the medical administrators there. ❖ Got reliable contact details, email address, home address of around 112 doctors, the database of which I have submitted to RM at Kotak Privy. ❖ Interactions with Doctors helped me understand their consumer preferences, views on demonetization & GST, preference for digital banking post these changes, asset classes where they prefer to park their excess funds, increased exposure to banking system, banking preferences etc.
  47. 47 | P a g e ❖ Got better & positive responses when I said I’m representing Kotak, and not focussing on the fact that I’m doing an internship here. As I had contacted them as an intern, and was told I shall share some interesting responses of medical administrators and some professionals: Table 6: Responses Received from Medical administrator Hospital Visited Name of Medical Administrator(s) Their Response Ruby Hospital i. Ambuj Ghosh, Sr. Manager Front Office ii. Dr. Durgadoss Roy, Deputy Medical Superintendent We are tied up with various banks like SBI, United Bank of India, Vijaya Bank. Mostly Health Insurance Regarding any product propositions, kindly drop us a formal mail from official Kotak at ruby@rubyhospital.com and we will surely respond and set up an appointment Desun Hospital Sujoy Das, Medical Administrator Told me to wait for senior medical administrator. First asked me about the products and services offered. After talking for while regarding hospital, I enquired regarding setting up of meeting with our RM regarding products and service
  48. 48 | P a g e Response was positive but told that they were busy with winding up for previous quarter, with new financial quarter and told to drop an official mail to desun@desunhospital.com and they’d certainly respond. AMRI Hospital Mr. Tapas, Medical Administrator Officially cannot hold meeting with doctors; no provisions for it. You can talk to doctors informally if you want to. B) SOME RESPONSES FROM PROFESSIONALS: From the responses received from questionnaires, interviews, phone calls, observations and other secondary data sources, the data was analysed and the tabulations and charts were prepared based on these: Table 7: Responses from Professionals Person Contacted Profession Responses/Comments Aditya Vikram CA -I am satisfied with Kotak Mahindra Bank’s service -Wishes to buy a second house in Kolkata, as he currently resides in Howrah with family -Leans towards investment in Mutual Funds and FDs, due to returns and also due to peer advice.
  49. 49 | P a g e Makes frequent digital transactions using various apps and didn’t have too many issues during demonetization since he already had almost all his money in bank account Anupam Das Doctor -Younger Doctor working in AMRI. -Was not interested in services provided by Kotak Privy -Wished to buy a House, apart from the family house owned for his family -Invests in stock markets after advice from friend S Hasan Doctor -Spoke against demonetization and how it caused him problems regarding cash in hand -Wanted to Buy Real Estate in partly outskirts of Kolkata since he felt prices will fall and needed home apart from family home -Enjoys Going for Foreign Tours, especially in US Against demonetization, and said that the country is “messed up”
  50. 50 | P a g e Aparajita Ghosh Doctor -Kind of follows the stock markets to keep in touch with investments made, but majorly overseen by husband as well. -Has positive hopes for her mutual fund investments. Sanat Kumar Dey CA -Wishes to invest more in Mutual Funds, and also FD deposits for daughter’s future education C) SOME INTERESTING RESPONSES/LEADS FROM TRUST FUNDS CONTACTED Table 8: Response from Trust Funds Name of Company/Trust Person Contacted Information gained via talk/secondary source Response/Comments & POTENTIAL LEADS Dhunseri Tea Reception, Office of Chandra Kumar Dhanuka -Has Sizeable Market share in Rajasthan -Has Made strategic acquisitions in Africa -We cannot disclose banking details If you want to discuss about possibilities and product proposition, visit our office. We shall talk to your RM and fix appointment if needed. POTENTIAL LEAD
  51. 51 | P a g e Chitrabani Society -Reception, then got forwarded to Mr. PJ Joseph, SJ Director of Society -Receives at least international donations Worth 4-5 lakhs per year from Taiwan -Associated with St. Xavier’s College -HasFCRA Account We are travelling to Bangladesh and will be busy with our schedules till 15th – 16th May. After that, send us a mail or contact us to get appointment. POTENTIAL LEAD Bijni Dooars Tea Company Reception -Real estate activities with own or leased property. -Tea Business with paid up capital of ₹60 Lakh, with secured loan of ₹93 Lakh. We have accounts in SBI and City Union Bank and are satisfied with the products and services offered. We don't wish to switch currently Ganodaya Finlease Limited Mr. Arun Kumar Agarwalla -Registered with RBI as a NBFC, is presently engaged in business of investment in securities & mutual funds, inter corporate loans, and such allied fund-based activities -3 personal accounts only now, Issues with Dalhousie branch of Kotak, -Owner has 3 public and 4 private company -Account transferred to HDFC, ready to meet after 31st May -Good chance that he may return back to Kotak POTENTIAL LEAD – GOOD CHANCE
  52. 52 | P a g e Nimisha Agarwal Benefit Trust Mr. Ajay Agarwal It was a trust created on name of his daughter Nimisha Agarwal is my daughter. She is only a minor. No financial transactions occur through the trust, it is inactive. Results from Interaction with Trust Funds’: Figure 2. % Of Trust Funds Catering to Type of Owner Class - Those who've I contact ❖ There was a total of 4 positive interactions and leads generated, which were duly submitted to my mentors ❖ Trust fund owners or organisations have substantial surplus money with them - and they come from a diverse variety of occupations or purposes, with religious trusts getting donations from abroad and may have FCRA Accounts too. ❖ Majority of these trusts were owned by Birla Group, of which various ceased to exist. ❖ Majority of trust funds in Kolkata were associated with Birla Group ❖ Most of these trust funds were owned by Corporates -e.g. Dalmia Cement, Birla Corp etc. ❖ The four main classification of these trust funds owned could be summarized as: a) Family b) Religious Groups c) Clubs d) Corporate 49.2% 20.0% 10.8% 12.3% 7.7% Percentage of Trust Funds Owned By Following Kinds of Organisations/Individuals Corporates Family Social Groups Religious Organisations Professionals
  53. 53 | P a g e e) Professional ❖ Around 60% of the Trust Funds given in datapoints had ceased to exist ❖ Most of these trust funds interacted with were present in 9/1 R N Mukherjee Road, Birla Building ❖ Almost all Trusts affiliated to Religious groups had FCRA accounts D) DATA ANALYSIS BASED ON TOTAL RESPONSES RECEIVED a) Consumer Behaviour: Consumer Expenditure, Behavioural & Preference Patterns observed from questionnaire and observations Figure 3. Percentage of Respondents who felt Demonetization & GST Benefitted them Figure 4: Respondents Facing Issues Post Demonetization & GST 71% 19% 10% % of Respondents who felt demonetization & GST are beneficial Agree Disagree Neutral 75.6% 15.4% 9.0% % of respondents who faced issues after Demonetization & GST Faced Issues Didn't Face Issues Neutral
  54. 54 | P a g e Figure 5: Risk Appetite of Respondents Figure 6. Influence/Authority over Financial Decisions Taken by Individuals Here, we can see that for financial planning advices, around 51% people trust their personal judgements about assets quality, etc. and financial planning according to their investment horizon or future goals. 31 29 4 Risk Apetite of Respondents: Higher Return Minimised Risk Risk Neutrality 50.8% 31.1% 18.0% 50.8% 31.1% 18.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Self Family Members Advisories Influence/Authority over Financial Planning/Decisions
  55. 55 | P a g e Figure 7. Income Allocation Preferences of Respondents Figure 8. Most Desired Luxury Vehicle This table shows people’s desired luxury vehicle post demonetization. This was a very subjective thing to observe since each had their own taste and preferences. But, most of the respondents preferred BMW, Audi and Jaguar because of the Brand Image and purchasing 50.00%, 50% 43.94%, 44% 4.55%, 5%1.52%, 1% Prefered Discretionary & Non-Discretionary Expense Preferences Investment International Trip I Phone X Armani Suit 24.6% 23.1% 21.5% 4.6% 3.1% 6.2% 1.5% 4.6% 7.7% 3.1% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Prefered Luxury Vehicle
  56. 56 | P a g e power. What I also learnt was that these increased expenditure of luxury goods was due to it being an alternative for holding cash, especially the cash which was unaccounted earlier. Figure 9. Most Preferred Banking Partner About 35% of respondents preferred HDFC Bank over other banks. Some reasons regarding it, as said by questioned people remains easy accessibility, perceived reputation and peer influence. Asset Allocations Figure 10 Most Preferred Asset Classes over the period of 2015-2018, with comparisons Figure 11 Most Preferred Asset Classes over the period of 2015-2018, with comparison 6.3% 34.9% 22.2% 17.5% 4.8% 14.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Axis Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank None of the above SBI Most Preferred Bank Savings Account & FD Mutual Funds Bonds Real Estate Direct Equity Investing Gold/Jeweller y Pre-Demonetisation 37.1% 23.8% 11.4% 14.3% 9.5% 3.8% Post Demonetisation 39.0% 30.9% 2.9% 7.4% 16.9% 2.9% 37.1% 23.8% 11.4% 14.3% 9.5% 3.8% 39.0% 30.9% 2.9% 7.4% 16.9% 2.9% Pre-Demonetisation Post Demonetisation
  57. 57 | P a g e Table 8: Individual Response Analysis Per Person Response for Assets No of assets preferred Pre-Demonetization & GST (2014-15) 1.62 Post Demonetization & GST (2017-2018) 2.09 Increased Desire to diversify portfolio mix in (%) 29.52% Observations & Commentary: 1) There is inclination towards technology-based products amongst the professional classes of professionals, businessmen and self-employed. This is based on the shift in digitalization needs and the coming up of apps like Paytm, Airtel money which are swift and easier to use. 2) Post demonetization, various respondents parked their cash in hand into bank accounts, hence decreasing liquidity at their end. From the interest earnt from bank accounts, and inability to move their funds, they allocated their assets accordingly into equity, MFs etc. 3) Also, discretionary expenditure saw a preference, with various people buying luxurious cars, and going for international trips. Respondents used these modes to invest in consumer durables with the surplus money generated at banks, with various transactions happening online itself. 4) Table 8 shows that post demonetization & GST, people have harnessed the new opportunities provided by the assets. Looking at the above table, about 30% of the same Equity Debt Real Estate Alternate Investments 2015 (Pre Demonetisation & GST) 24.39% 29.27% 36.59% 9.76% 2017-18 (Under Current Scenario (Post Demonetisation & GST)) 51.22% 9.76% 24.39% 14.63% 24.39% 29.27% 36.59% 9.76% 51.22% 9.76% 24.39% 14.63% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% Most Prefered Broad Based Asset Classes Pre & Post Demonetization 2015 (Pre Demonetisation & GST) 2017-18 (Under Current Scenario (Post Demonetisation & GST))
  58. 58 | P a g e respondents have wanted to diversify their asset allocations, especially into equity (an increase by 27% when compared to 2015 – before demonetization and GST. 5) Also, mutual funds saw a preferential treatment, majorly because the current market scenario underlines sentiments where one wants and understands that there are greater returns in direct equity & derivatives investing but doesn’t won’t to compromise on minimization of risk – they wish to be risk neutral. 6) Hence, mutual funds and alternative investments served as the middle and secular path to their asset allocations providing decent returns – be it equity funds or debt funds, which will be discussed in the next section, although debt funds in nearer future haven’t performed up to the mark. The reasons for the same will be discussed in detail in the study of assets classes part. 7) Hence, from the results of questionnaires, what was observed that Bonds became less preferable by around 8%, and debt’s overall preference too decreased by around 20%, primarily because of better returns via equity, and a push towards opportunity-based investing, which slants towards the direction of high risk, high returns asset class – which is equity. 8) Equity has seen substantial broad-based investing, hence the preference for it is primarily because of the higher returns generated from it. Although demonetization had corrected the markets initially, but the broad-based investing and heavy influx of capital into this segment propelled this asset class. 9) Real Estate’s preference has decreased by around 9%, primarily due to it being a cash- based asset. Most of the transactions which earlier occurred by cash, probably unaccounted money got directed into real estate. But, now this wasn’t possible. The attempted move to move from an informal sector to a formal sector has hit the informal players and created a climate where the new regulations via RERA have confused people, and people are unsure about investing for now. Yet, they had decided to hold their positions in real estate. I shall further elaborate while I study the asset class of real estate in the forthcoming sections.
  59. 59 | P a g e Results from Secondary Data Sources These results are from raw data available from websites of SEBI, RBI and Wealth reports which I tabulated and charted. This helps getting an apt picture of the conditions prevailing. Some of the key results from secondary data study were: Figure 12 Asset Allocations Proportions From 2014-2018 Table 9. Asset Allocation of HNI Clients over the years. Equity Debt Real Estate Alternative Investments 2014 38% 24% 29% 9% 2015 45% 20% 26% 9% 2016 39% 22% 28% 11% 2017 40% 17% 32% 11% 2018 44% 16% 26% 14% Source: Kotak Top of The Pyramid Wealth Reports 2014-18 The key observation in trend of asset allocation which can be observed here is the obvious increase in equity positions. Looking at it from 2015, there has been a - 6% increase in equity investment allocation - 8% decrease in debt investment allocation - 3% decrease in real estate allocation - 5% increase in alternative investments’ allocation Now, there could’ve been two reasons for this change in allocation: 2014 2014 2014 2014 39% 22% 28% 11% 2018, 44% 2018, 16% 2018, 26% 2018, 14% Asset Allocation of HNIs over the years Equity Debt Real Estate Alternate Investments
  60. 60 | P a g e a) Reallocation of Already Present Assets (e.g selling off real estate to purchase equity) b) Influx of more capital into an asset class (e.g influx of capital into equity would increase equity’s percentage and reduce the others’) Since the number of HNIs have been increasing, it is the size of the pie and the post demonetization & GST scenarios which have altered these asset allocations. Figure 13. Most Preferred Asset Across HNI Professions Source: Karvy Wealth Report, 2016 Figure 14 Percentage of Clients who wish change their asset class preferences post disruptions Source: Kotak Top of the Pyramid Report, 2017 Here, we can observe that about 46% and 45% of HNIs intend to increase their equity and alternative investment positions, even at the expense of decreasing their allocation towards debt and real estate. Also, 42% & 41% of HNIs respectively don’t wish to alter their positions in equity and alternative investment, which shows their trust and belief in these asset classes, 69% 46% 66% 69% 62.50% 19% 42% 23% 19% 25.75% 10% 11% 10% 10% 10.25% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1.50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Professional Retired Salaried Person Business/Self Employed Total/Average Most Prefered Asset Class Amongst HNIs Pre Demonetization & GST Alternate Investments Real Estate Debt Equity Equity Debt Real Estate Alternate Investment Increase 46% 31% 29% 45% Decrease 12% 34% 36% 14% No Change 42% 35% 35% 41% 46% 31% 29% 45% 12% 34% 36% 14% 42% 35% 35% 41% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % of HNI Clients who desire to increase, decrease or keep their asset allocations constant Increase Decrease No Change
  61. 61 | P a g e which yields to the suggestion that they wish to hold long positions in these asset classes. The cleaning of the economy, high growth-high volatility scenario present doesn’t seem to deter their asset allocations in these two classes. Figure 15 Comparing the Stability in Preference of Asset Classes across 2016 & 2017 Table 10: Preferences of Asset Classes Across Profession Classes amongst HNIs Source: Karvy Wealth Report 2016,17 Here, professionals, salaried people, businessmen and self-employed people have more or less stable or at least correlated preferences regarding the asset classes. ❖ The conspicuous observation here is regarding the retired HNIs, who initially, before GST’s and demonetization’s implementation had the highest interest in debt instruments and debt mutual funds. But, a stark contrast has been observed when it came to 2017 data wherein there was a 36% decrease in preference for debt and 38% increased interest to equity. Equity Debt Real Estate Alternate Investments 2016 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.01 2017 0.09 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 Differences in Asset Allocating Opinions among different HNIs' profession classes (Using Standard Deviation) - helps to look at general sentiment of each asset class 2016 2017 Equity Debt Real Estate AI 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Professional 69% 69% 19% 6% 10% 19% 2% 6% Retired 46% 84% 42% 6% 11% 4% 1% 6% Salaried Person 66% 85% 23% 5% 10% 13% 1% 1% Business/SE 69% 68% 19% 9% 10% 17% 2% 6% S. D 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.03
  62. 62 | P a g e Probable Cause for Shift in Retired personnel Sudden Asset Allocation Shift Retired people are old, and generally don’t plan too ahead for the future. They mainly may have short term goals and wish to provide for their subsequent heirs – be it daughters or sons. Their income sources can be returns from equity market, mutual funds, FD deposits’ interest and rent from real estate. They are generally not a part of Digital climate, and still rely on normal banking practices. Since they are usually settled in life and already have more than one property, there isn’t a dire need to purchase more. Hence, equity being a significant wealth creator in recent times, has seen assets being parked there. Post demonetization, any other cash in hand too may have been parked there, more so than in case of other professions who might’ve allocated their assets in Digital Wallets as well, for day to day spending, without much hassle. Creating passive incomes via FDs or savings banks account gets complicated because of inflation, and also a unique kind of ‘lifestyle inflation’ which is due to changing lifestyles. With low interests on savings accounts etc., PPFs and with inflation, the total value created is diminutive. From calculations, if one is 15 years away from retirement and want ₹50,000 each month for expenditure, he/she would require ₹1,37,952 to maintain current levels of expenditure then3 . Other Key Observations ❖ Here we observe that in 2016, that is before demonetization and GST was implemented, for equity almost all profession classes had almost equal preference to venture into equity markets, via direct method or through mutual funds etc. ❖ Formalisation of Businesses – i.e a shift from Informal to Formal Sector ❖ Also, in 2016, before demonetization, higher positions were maintained by all profession classes in debt. ❖ The asset classes where investment interest is relatively same over the timeframe happens to be real estate, which is a physical asset. Hence, real estate has a dedicated interested consumer base, primarily because of its’ varied uses – for living, as an asset, resale values, and for rent. ❖ Strong FII inflows were observed in the real estate segment as private equity etc. which will be discussed further in the forthcoming sections. 3 As read from Outlook Money, mentioned in bibliography
  63. 63 | P a g e Comparison Between Primary Data (trend observed from Survey in Kolkata) and Secondary Data (General Trend in India) Figure 16. Preference of Asset Classes: Comparing Results from Primary & Secondary Data Observations: Here I seek to observe the departure of my findings from the secondary data available for the same. This data was obtained from secondary sources, 2017 and 2016 which I have tabulated for comparison. Their study was conducted amongst HNIs from all the top cities in coalition with a top consulting firm. Comparing with results from my questionnaires etc, there has been a variability in asset allocation obtained from survey compared to the general trend observed in India. Although debt and real estate have lesser variability from data obtained from my survey, there has been: ❖ 30-40% variability in Equity investments ❖ 15% variability in Alternative Investments ❖ Around 20-25% variability in real estate. This may or may not show the exact picture of asset allocations in Kolkata compared to other states but reflects the preferences of my targeted sample size. Results are: ❖ Higher Preference to Real Estate while comparing other cities ❖ Lower preference to Equity while comparing secondary data results, although equity investment has been increasing ❖ Similar preference & even trend of Debt investment compared to secondary data, with debt being preferred lesser uniformly throughout India. 63% 77% 24% 51% 26% 7% 29% 10% 10% 13% 37% 24% 1% 3.75% 10% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2016 2017 Pre Demonetisation & GST Now (2018) Secondary Data Primary Data (Findings) Preference of Asset Classes: Comparing Primary & Secondary Data Sources Others (Alternate Investments, Gold etc) Real Estate Debt Equity
  64. 64 | P a g e E) Findings from Phase III (from study of the broad-based asset classes) Equity Here, there are certain assumptions made for this phase of study: ❖ Nifty is assumed to be the proxy for equity market’s performance ❖ Nifty is the benchmarked index for calculating volatility, correlations etc. ❖ Selective Stocks studied on an average represent performance of their index, and are from diverse sectors ❖ The period of study, as mentioned earlier is fixed (from 24/11/15 to 22/05/18) Figure 17 Trend of Nifty Index since 2015 Data Source: Investing.in Figure 18. Average Annual P: E Ratio of BSE Sensitive Index Data Source: RBI The trend of Nifty and the P: E Ratio of BSE Sensitive Index respectively show that the equity markets have been growing steadily, and the index is overvalued compared to its intrinsic 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 May21,2018 Apr18,2018 Mar15,2018 Feb09,2018 Jan09,2018 Dec07,2017 Nov07,2017 Oct05,2017 Sep04,2017 Aug01,2017 Jun30,2017 May30,2017 Apr27,2017 Mar24,2017 Feb20,2017 Jan18,2017 Dec19,2016 Nov17,2016 Oct17,2016 Sep12,2016 Aug09,2016 Jul08,2016 Jun07,2016 May06,2016 Apr01,2016 Feb26,2016 Jan27,2016 Dec24,2015 Nov23,2015 Oct20,2015 Sep15,2015 Aug14,2015 Jul15,2015 Jun15,2015 May14,2015 Trend of Nifty Index (which will be used as benchmark) 20.73 22.65 15.67 20.08 21.6 18.56 17.09 17.38 18.73 20.18 20.62 23.76 23.43 0 5 10 15 20 25 Average Annual Price/Earning Ratio of BSE Sensitive Index
  65. 65 | P a g e value. There has been a negative sentiment in the recent months along with considerable volatility at high valuations. Many of the stocks are overvalued and inflated in comparison to their intrinsic value. This can be credited to various macroeconomic factors like rising inflation, crude oil prices, weakening rupee, trade war, widening fiscal deficit etc. The current P: E Ratio of BSE Sensitive Index of 23.76 is similar to 2007-08 levels when market succumbed to the financial crisis. Figure 19. Annual Growth Rate of Some Equity & Diversified Funds (Over 2013-2018 Ist Qt.) Pre-Demonetization & GST (2015-16) Table 11: Returns, Correlations & Volatility Analysis of Some Indices pre-note-ban & GST -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 2018 Qt.1 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Performance of Equity & Diversified Funds (Annual Growth Rate) HDFC Equity Fund (G) Reliance SmallCap Bank Kotak Select Focus Fund - Direct Plan Invesco India Dynamic Equity Fund SBI Magnum Multicap Fund - Regular Plan (G) Average Nifty Realty Nifty Bank Sensex Nifty IT Nifty Media Nifty FM CG Nifty Auto Nifty Metal Correlation w/ Benchmark 0.66 0.87 0.99 0.49 0.66 0.65 0.82 0.70 Beta 1.51 1.18 0.99 0.72 1.06 0.79 1.17 1.38 Return 17.87 % 14.29 % 6.92% -9.73% 19.47 % 8.34 % 20.0 0% 54.63% 1.86% 1.22% 0.91% 1.02% 1.42% 1.05 % 1.26 % 1.78%
  66. 66 | P a g e Post Demonetization & GST (9th Nov, 2016 – now) Table 12: Returns, Correlations & Volatility Analysis of Some Indices post note-ban & GST Nifty Realty Nifty Bank Sens ex Nifty IT Nifty Media Nifty FMCG Nifty Auto Nifty Metal Correlation w/ Benchmark 0.59 0.85 0.99 0.36 0.62 0.62 0.78 0.70 Variance 3E-04 8E-05 4E- 05 1E- 04 1E-04 1E-04 1E-04 2E-04 Beta 1.63 1.16 1.00 0.57 1.10 0.95 1.22 1.61 Return 54.99% 28.51% 23.6 4% 35.17 % 10.49% 26.72% 9.53% 27.09% Annual Volatility 28.33% 13.99% 10.3 2% 15.91 % 18.00% 15.66% 15.89 % 23.36% Risk vs. Return Comparison of Key Sectoral Stocks I have calculated the following from the prices obtained from investing.in for analysis these stocks in the given timeframe. Table 13: Beta, Capital Returns & Other info of Some Key Sectoral Sector Pre-& Post-Note Ban & GST Daily Volatility Annual Volt. 29.41 % 19.39 % 14.43% 16.10% 22.52 % 16.6 2% 19.9 6% 28.14% Post Demonetization & GST HDFC Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Maruti Suzuki DLF TCS JSW Steel ITC HU L Correlation w/ Nifty 0.57 0.48 0.59 0.5 2 0.1 8 0.56 0.4 2 0.4 3
  67. 67 | P a g e Pre- Demonetization & GST HDFC Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Maruti Suzuki DLF TCS JSW Steel ITC Ltd HUL Correlation w/ Nifty 0.74 0.64 0.60 0.69 0.48 0.38 0.53 0.41 Variance 0.0000 9 0.00017 0.00029 0.00 086 0.00 018 0.000 32 0.00 026 0.00 018 Beta 0.77 0.90 1.11 2.22 0.71 0.74 0.94 0.59 Sharpe Ratio 0.64 0.56 0.51 0.52 -0.52 2.37 0.27 -0.16 Return 17.13 % 18.94% 21.11% 31.4 5% - 3.61 % 74.69 % 14.2 8% 3.98 % Annual Volatility 15.18 % 20.59% 26.77% 46.5 6% 21.2 4% 28.34 % 25.7 8% 21.0 2% Treynor's Ratio 0.126 0.128 0.124 0.10 8 - 0.15 6 0.905 0.07 3 - 0.05 8 Beta 0.73 0.84 0.96 1.9 6 0.3 6 1.50 0.9 2 0.6 9 Sharpe Ratio 3.01 2.12 2.17 1.1 3 2.1 1 2.02 0.1 3 3.4 9 Return 49.2% 47.8% 45.6% 53. 8% 53. 8% 66.0% 10. 1% 68. 5% Annual Volatility 14.0% 19.2% 17.7% 41. 2% 22. 2% 29.1% 23. 7% 17. 6% Treynor's Ratio 0.573 0.482 0.402 0.2 39 1.2 85 0.393 0.0 32 0.8 86
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