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Qcl 15-v4 [challenge-no-3]_[scmld]_[ketan,parag,simranjit]

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Qcl 15-v4 [challenge-no-3]_[scmld]_[ketan,parag,simranjit]

  1. 1. 1 Delay & Feedback In complex systems, cause and effect are distant in time and space
  2. 2. 2 Behavior Over Time Graph A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on patterns of change over time rather than on isolated events, leading to rich discussions on how and why something is changing
  3. 3. 3 Time Variables BOTG (examples)
  4. 4. 4 Hours Temperature BOTG (examples)
  5. 5. 5 Years Savings BOTG (examples)
  6. 6. 6 Hours Anger Low Medium High Plot your anger in Cookie Story
  7. 7. 7 Why use BOTG  Helps focus on patterns of change over time rather than on single events.  Helps one think about underlining causes of those changes.  Helps to take proactive actions.
  8. 8. 8 What is the difference between Cause and Effect Relationship & Causal Relationship
  9. 9. 9 Cause Effect Cause & Effect
  10. 10. 10 Hunger Consumption of food Cause & Effect
  11. 11. 11 A B C D Cause & Effect
  12. 12. 12 Crop HarvestingPlanting Seeds in Development Cause & Effect
  13. 13. 13 A B C D Causal Relationship
  14. 14. 14 Crop HarvestingPlanting Seeds in Development Causal Relationship
  15. 15. 15 Good Teacher Academic Success Good Parenting Good Classroom Environment Intelligence Multiple Causes & Effect.
  16. 16. 16 Good Teacher Academic Success Good Parenting Good Classroom Environment Intelligence Causal Relationship
  17. 17. 17 Good Teacher Academic Success Good Parenting Good Classroom Environment Intelligence Causal Relationship
  18. 18. 18 System & Causality  A system always behaves based on causal relationships and not on cause and effect  There are 3 fundamental building blocks to a causal relationship  Reinforcing Loop  Balancing Loop  Delay
  19. 19. 19 Reinforcing Processes It means information that compounds change in one direction with even more change in the same direction. Saving Balance Interest Payment S S
  20. 20. 20 High motivation Success Can you think of any other example of reinforcing loop? S S Reinforcing Loop
  21. 21. 21 Unemployment Poverty Can you think of any other example of reinforcing loop? Illiteracy S S S Reinforcing Loop
  22. 22. 22 Time Variable Can you draw a BOTG graph of Reinforcing Loop ?
  23. 23. 23 Reading Time Balance a paper tube on your finger G
  24. 24. 24 Balancing Processes It means information which produces change in the opposite direction negating the previous effect. Corrective Action Gap S S Actual Grades Goal (Good Grades) S O
  25. 25. 25 Balancing Processes It means information which produces change in the opposite direction negating the previous effect. Use of Relaxation Exercise Gap S S Stress Level Acceptable Stress Level S O
  26. 26. 26 Hunger Consumption of food Can you think of any other example of Balancing loop? S O Balancing Loop
  27. 27. 27 Time Variable Can you draw a BOTG graph of Balancing loop ?
  28. 28. 28  Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted upon   Vary up or down over time (not an event)   Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)  Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the direction  of influence between variables  S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another   S stands for "same direction”   O stands for "opposite direction”  or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium  or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change COMPONENTS OF A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM
  29. 29. 29 These building blocks are: 1. Variables 2. Links 3. Mental Models/Thought Bubbles 4. Direction of Links/S's and O's 5. Delays 6. Type of Feedback Loops Building Blocks Of Causal Loops
  30. 30. 30 Variables Variables are typically neutral nouns or noun phrases. They represent an element in a situation where the pattern of behaviour changes over time. Examples: 1. Customers (rather than Lost Customers) 2. Sales (rather than Lost Sales) 3. Pledges & Promises 4. Service Quality (rather than Poor Service)
  31. 31. 31 Definition and Characteristics of a Variable  Is an element in a situation that may act or be acted upon.  Its value can vary up or down over time.  Is not an event.  Is something you can discuss as "the level of . . . "  Key test - it's a variable if you can plot its value over time.
  32. 32. 32 Links Links represent a causal relationship between two variables. A change in one variable causes a change in another.
  33. 33. 33 Mental Models/Thought Bubbles Thought bubbles represent the thinking behind the action/choice that the link expresses.
  34. 34. 34 Direction of Links / S's and O's  Indicates the direction in which the first variable impacts the second. Direction can either be the same (S) or opposite (O).
  35. 35. 35 Delay A delay is indicated by a pair of parallel lines (//) on a link. This symbol marks those links with the most significant delays.
  36. 36. 36 Type of Feedback: Reinforcing or Balancing There are only two types of feedback: reinforcing and balancing. Each has a characteristic pattern of performance. We note reinforcing feedback loops with an R in the centre; balancing feedback loops are marked with a B.
  37. 37. 37
  38. 38. 38 Employee Performance Supervisor’s Supportive Behavior Unsupportive Behavior Structure S S REINFORCING LOOP Perf. Level Time Behavior Over Time Supportive Behavior Employee Performance Supervisor’s Supportive Behavior
  39. 39. 39 Discrepancy Inventory Adjustment Structure Actual Inventory Desired Inventory Desired Inventory Time Behavior Over Time 100 100 - - 100 ++ Actual Inventory S S S O BALANCING LOOP
  40. 40. 40 Variables In choosing variables, we are moving down the iceberg from the level of events to the levels of patterns and structure. The first variables to identify are our "performance" measures. Examples of typical measures include costs, percent of projects completed on schedule, employee retention, and success rate in securing new contracts. Keep in mind that when we use Systems Thinking tools for problem solving, we are most likely to encounter situations with "multiple symptoms of dysfunction" because of the complexity of the underlying structure.
  41. 41. 41 Therefore, it is often appropriate to have more than one condition or performance measure that we are interested in understanding and changing. The next variables of interest are the causes and consequences of the performance or condition or symptom. When identifying variables, we also want to look for variables that represent our "policies" or decisions and the actions of others that are a result of both problems and success. In terms of creative tension, identifying variables is a way to describe current reality as key patterns of behaviour over time.
  42. 42. 42 Therefore, it is often appropriate to have more than one condition or performance measure that we are interested in understanding and changing. The next variables of interest are the causes and consequences of the performance or condition or symptom. When identifying variables, we also want to look for variables that represent our "policies" or decisions and the actions of others that are a result of both problems and success. In terms of creative tension, identifying variables is a way to describe current reality as key patterns of behaviour over time.
  43. 43. 43 Definition and Characteristics of a Variable  Is an element in a situation that may act or be acted upon.  Its value can vary up or down over time.  Is not an event.  Is something you can discuss as "the level of . . . "  Key test - it's a variable if you can plot its value over time.
  44. 44. 44 Exercises / Practicing Loops  Money in Bank / Interest payments  Thirst / Drinking  Angry feelings / Angry thoughts  Baby Rabbits / Adult Rabbits  Effort / Learning  Room Temperature / A/C running

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