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Stock-Flow Approach to Sub-national RELs:
                Example from Central Xingu
                       Bronson Griscom & Rane Cortez




Photo by Peter Ellis
                         Edenise Garcia
                         Science Coordinator – Amazon Conservation Program
                         March 8, 2012
What is a Stock-Flow Approach?
A mechanism that provides incentive payments to conserve
  forests in both historically high- and low-deforestation
regions while maintaining a level of environmental integrity
          through an actual impact on mitigation



 A portion of payments for emissions reductions would be
   put into a “stabilization fund” that would re-allocate
         payments based on forest carbon stocks


       Incentive for maintaining forest carbon stocks
Here’s an example of how this could be applied
in Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, where
TNC is working…
Central Xingu Program Area, Southern Para
Potential Emissions Reductions by Zones in Central Xingu
                    (based on simple historic REL)




Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
Carbon Stocks by Zones in Central Xingu




Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
Basic Principles

Reference Emissions Level (REL)
• Historic emissions baseline
• “Business as usual” projection


                   Accounting vs. Crediting
    a direct reflection of                                involves additional issues
      carbon emissions                                      of equity and political
                                                                 negotiations


   Qualifier: This is just an example for technical discussion – many questions
   remain to be resolved by Brazilian stakeholders before a municipality scale
   REL approach is resolved.
Basic Principles

• The design of RELs will affect:
   – cost of obtaining the reductions (efficiency)
   – distribution of REDD+ revenue across countries and regions (equity), and
   – the ability of the REDD+ mechanism to produce credible emissions
     reductions (environmental integrity),


• Trade-off between efficiency and equity (and integrity).

A stock-flow approach uses two instruments to minimize the
trade-offs:
    Accounting REL determined as simple historic average emissions.
    A “stock fund”
We propose that the REL is simply the
           historic mean emissions.
     Why?


Because:
1)    Transparency
2)    Broaden applicability
3)    More complex ≠ more accurate
Simple historic REL vs. RELs based
    on linear trend analysis
Only three States with statistically significant historic linear
trends…
Comparison of:
•Actual Deforestation (solid line)
•Modeled linear projection (dotted line)
•Simple Historic mean projection (dashed line)
Simple historic REL vs. RELs based
    on linear trend analysis




                        Simple historic mean Error




                          DO NOT DISTRIBUTE - INTERNAL TNC DOCUMENT
OK, but then how do we include areas with low historic
emissions but high stocks, such as Indigenous Lands?
Answer: A “Stock Fund” to re-distribute a portion of incentives
from emissions reductions to areas with high stocks.

                                              historic average REL
                                                              allocation to
                                                              Stock Fund
     Emissions
                 (GtCO2/yr)




                                                            crediting




                              -10 y   START            +10y             +20y
Scenario 1: Simple Historic Mean REL, No Stock Re-Allocation
                   Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area
                   Stocks:    >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39%


                                                                                Scenario:
                                                                                •25% ERs

                                                                                •10 “incentive
                                                                                 nuggets” per
                                                                                   ton CO2



                                                                                Indigenous Lands
                                                                                would receive less
                                                                                than 20% of
                                                                                incentives, while
                                                                                holding over 60%
                                                                                of stocks



Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
Scenario 2: Simple Historic Mean REL, 15% Stock Re-Allocation
               Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area
        Stocks:   >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39%


                                                Scenario:
                                                •25% ERs

                                                •10 “incentive
                                                 nuggets” per
                                                   ton CO2
                                                •15% set aside for
                                                Stabilization Fund.
Scenario 3: Simple Historic Mean REL, 30% Stock Re-Allocation
               Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area
        Stocks:   >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39%



                                                Scenario:
                                                •25% ERs

                                                •10 “incentive
                                                 nuggets” per
                                                   ton CO2
                                                •30% set aside for
                                                Stabilization Fund.
Rules for Eligibility to Stock Funding

                     Private Lands:
                  High past deforestation
                                                     REL Zone X
 Emissions Rate
                                                     Municipality Mean

                           eligible for SF



                  Start                            20 yrs


                          PA’s & IL’s:
                  Low past deforestation


 Emissions Rate


                                       develop.       ½ Municipality mean
                                 eligible for SF
                                                      REL Zone Y
                  Start                            20 yrs
Advantages of Stock-Flow Approach
 •Environmental Integrity.

 •Focus stakeholder negotiations on decision
 about trade-off between Equity and Efficiency.
 •Relieves pressure to attempt to project
 changes from historic rates.
 •Can be adjusted to address leakage
 issue.
thanks!
Edenise Garcia (egarcia@tnc.org)

Rane Cortez (rcortez@tnc.org)

Bronson Griscom (bgriscom@tnc.org)
historic average Reference Emissions Level (REL)
                                                                        country’s self-financed actions
                                                                               and/or public $
Emissions
            (GtCO2/yr)




                                                      crediting




                         -10 y   START            +10y           +20y               +30y           +40y

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Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu

  • 1. Stock-Flow Approach to Sub-national RELs: Example from Central Xingu Bronson Griscom & Rane Cortez Photo by Peter Ellis Edenise Garcia Science Coordinator – Amazon Conservation Program March 8, 2012
  • 2. What is a Stock-Flow Approach? A mechanism that provides incentive payments to conserve forests in both historically high- and low-deforestation regions while maintaining a level of environmental integrity through an actual impact on mitigation A portion of payments for emissions reductions would be put into a “stabilization fund” that would re-allocate payments based on forest carbon stocks Incentive for maintaining forest carbon stocks
  • 3. Here’s an example of how this could be applied in Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, where TNC is working…
  • 4. Central Xingu Program Area, Southern Para
  • 5. Potential Emissions Reductions by Zones in Central Xingu (based on simple historic REL) Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
  • 6. Carbon Stocks by Zones in Central Xingu Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
  • 7. Basic Principles Reference Emissions Level (REL) • Historic emissions baseline • “Business as usual” projection Accounting vs. Crediting a direct reflection of involves additional issues carbon emissions of equity and political negotiations Qualifier: This is just an example for technical discussion – many questions remain to be resolved by Brazilian stakeholders before a municipality scale REL approach is resolved.
  • 8. Basic Principles • The design of RELs will affect: – cost of obtaining the reductions (efficiency) – distribution of REDD+ revenue across countries and regions (equity), and – the ability of the REDD+ mechanism to produce credible emissions reductions (environmental integrity), • Trade-off between efficiency and equity (and integrity). A stock-flow approach uses two instruments to minimize the trade-offs: Accounting REL determined as simple historic average emissions. A “stock fund”
  • 9. We propose that the REL is simply the historic mean emissions. Why? Because: 1) Transparency 2) Broaden applicability 3) More complex ≠ more accurate
  • 10. Simple historic REL vs. RELs based on linear trend analysis
  • 11. Only three States with statistically significant historic linear trends…
  • 12. Comparison of: •Actual Deforestation (solid line) •Modeled linear projection (dotted line) •Simple Historic mean projection (dashed line)
  • 13. Simple historic REL vs. RELs based on linear trend analysis Simple historic mean Error DO NOT DISTRIBUTE - INTERNAL TNC DOCUMENT
  • 14. OK, but then how do we include areas with low historic emissions but high stocks, such as Indigenous Lands? Answer: A “Stock Fund” to re-distribute a portion of incentives from emissions reductions to areas with high stocks. historic average REL allocation to Stock Fund Emissions (GtCO2/yr) crediting -10 y START +10y +20y
  • 15. Scenario 1: Simple Historic Mean REL, No Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 Indigenous Lands would receive less than 20% of incentives, while holding over 60% of stocks Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
  • 16. Scenario 2: Simple Historic Mean REL, 15% Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 •15% set aside for Stabilization Fund.
  • 17. Scenario 3: Simple Historic Mean REL, 30% Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 •30% set aside for Stabilization Fund.
  • 18. Rules for Eligibility to Stock Funding Private Lands: High past deforestation REL Zone X Emissions Rate Municipality Mean eligible for SF Start 20 yrs PA’s & IL’s: Low past deforestation Emissions Rate develop. ½ Municipality mean eligible for SF REL Zone Y Start 20 yrs
  • 19. Advantages of Stock-Flow Approach •Environmental Integrity. •Focus stakeholder negotiations on decision about trade-off between Equity and Efficiency. •Relieves pressure to attempt to project changes from historic rates. •Can be adjusted to address leakage issue.
  • 20. thanks! Edenise Garcia (egarcia@tnc.org) Rane Cortez (rcortez@tnc.org) Bronson Griscom (bgriscom@tnc.org)
  • 21. historic average Reference Emissions Level (REL) country’s self-financed actions and/or public $ Emissions (GtCO2/yr) crediting -10 y START +10y +20y +30y +40y