Credible baseline setting and accurate and transparent Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of results are key conditions for successful REDD+ projects. In this presentation, Edenise Garcia from The Nature Conservancy introduces the ‘stock-flow approach’ as a means for establishing efficient, equitable, and environmentally sound reference emissions levels for REDD+. She gives an example as to how this approach might work in the Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, Brazil.
Edenise Garcia gave this presentation on 8 March 2012 at a workshop organised by CIFOR, ‘Measurement, Reporting and Verification in Latin American REDD+ Projects’, held in Petropolis, Brazil. The workshop aimed to explore important advances, challenges, pitfalls, and innovations in REDD+ methods — thereby moving towards overcoming barriers to meeting MRV requirements at REDD+ project sites in two of the Amazon’s most important REDD+ candidate countries, Peru and Brazil. For further information about the workshop, please contact Shijo Joseph via s.joseph (at) cgiar.org
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Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu
1. Stock-Flow Approach to Sub-national RELs:
Example from Central Xingu
Bronson Griscom & Rane Cortez
Photo by Peter Ellis
Edenise Garcia
Science Coordinator – Amazon Conservation Program
March 8, 2012
2. What is a Stock-Flow Approach?
A mechanism that provides incentive payments to conserve
forests in both historically high- and low-deforestation
regions while maintaining a level of environmental integrity
through an actual impact on mitigation
A portion of payments for emissions reductions would be
put into a “stabilization fund” that would re-allocate
payments based on forest carbon stocks
Incentive for maintaining forest carbon stocks
3. Here’s an example of how this could be applied
in Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, where
TNC is working…
5. Potential Emissions Reductions by Zones in Central Xingu
(based on simple historic REL)
Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
6. Carbon Stocks by Zones in Central Xingu
Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
7. Basic Principles
Reference Emissions Level (REL)
• Historic emissions baseline
• “Business as usual” projection
Accounting vs. Crediting
a direct reflection of involves additional issues
carbon emissions of equity and political
negotiations
Qualifier: This is just an example for technical discussion – many questions
remain to be resolved by Brazilian stakeholders before a municipality scale
REL approach is resolved.
8. Basic Principles
• The design of RELs will affect:
– cost of obtaining the reductions (efficiency)
– distribution of REDD+ revenue across countries and regions (equity), and
– the ability of the REDD+ mechanism to produce credible emissions
reductions (environmental integrity),
• Trade-off between efficiency and equity (and integrity).
A stock-flow approach uses two instruments to minimize the
trade-offs:
Accounting REL determined as simple historic average emissions.
A “stock fund”
9. We propose that the REL is simply the
historic mean emissions.
Why?
Because:
1) Transparency
2) Broaden applicability
3) More complex ≠ more accurate
13. Simple historic REL vs. RELs based
on linear trend analysis
Simple historic mean Error
DO NOT DISTRIBUTE - INTERNAL TNC DOCUMENT
14. OK, but then how do we include areas with low historic
emissions but high stocks, such as Indigenous Lands?
Answer: A “Stock Fund” to re-distribute a portion of incentives
from emissions reductions to areas with high stocks.
historic average REL
allocation to
Stock Fund
Emissions
(GtCO2/yr)
crediting
-10 y START +10y +20y
15. Scenario 1: Simple Historic Mean REL, No Stock Re-Allocation
Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area
Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39%
Scenario:
•25% ERs
•10 “incentive
nuggets” per
ton CO2
Indigenous Lands
would receive less
than 20% of
incentives, while
holding over 60%
of stocks
Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
16. Scenario 2: Simple Historic Mean REL, 15% Stock Re-Allocation
Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area
Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39%
Scenario:
•25% ERs
•10 “incentive
nuggets” per
ton CO2
•15% set aside for
Stabilization Fund.
17. Scenario 3: Simple Historic Mean REL, 30% Stock Re-Allocation
Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area
Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39%
Scenario:
•25% ERs
•10 “incentive
nuggets” per
ton CO2
•30% set aside for
Stabilization Fund.
18. Rules for Eligibility to Stock Funding
Private Lands:
High past deforestation
REL Zone X
Emissions Rate
Municipality Mean
eligible for SF
Start 20 yrs
PA’s & IL’s:
Low past deforestation
Emissions Rate
develop. ½ Municipality mean
eligible for SF
REL Zone Y
Start 20 yrs
19. Advantages of Stock-Flow Approach
•Environmental Integrity.
•Focus stakeholder negotiations on decision
about trade-off between Equity and Efficiency.
•Relieves pressure to attempt to project
changes from historic rates.
•Can be adjusted to address leakage
issue.