Pillar 2: Choosing goals By Lauri Hetemaki European Forest Institute

1. Dynamics of the bio-economy market
with focus on wood
Lauri Hetemäki
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Assistant Director
European Forest Institute
CIFOR-ICRAF Workshop “Delivering a forest-based circular bio-economy”, 10 December 2020

2. Presentation is based on:
8.12.2020 | WWW.EFI.INT
https://doi.org/10.36333/k2a01
Hetemäki, L., Palahi, M. & Nasi, R. 2020.
Seeing the wood in the forests.
Knowledge to Action no.1, European Forest Institute.
Freely downloadable here:

3. Forest-Based Circular bioeconomy is a tool to help
to achieve Paris Agreement and SDGs
▪ Difficult to see how the above grand policy targets could be reached
without forest-based circular bioeconomy being part of the solution
▪ But: Is there enough wood to support forest-based circular bioeconomy?
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0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Total Roundwood
Wood Fuel
Industrial Roundwood
Period of stagnation
1991-2009
World total roundwood production, composed of
industrial roundwood and wood fuel 1961-2018.
Data source: FAOSTAT
In 2018, world
produced 14%
more roundwood
than in 2000
During this period
the world economy
grew by 2.7-times,
world population
increased by 1.5
billion and world
middle-income
population grew from
about 1.5 billion to
3.8 billion

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If tomorrow was just another yesterday…...
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
4,400
4,800
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
4,400
4,800
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Million cubic meters
Trend Forecast
(trend 2000-2018)
Roundwood production would
increase from 3.9 billion cubic
metres in 2018 to 4.5 Bmin
2050, i.e., by 16% or 614
million cubic meters
How big is this increase from
a global forest perspective,
and would there be enough
forest resources to satisfy
this increase sustainably?

6. But, tomorrow will most likely not be another yesterday…..
▪ Some forest products demand decline (communication papers),
new forest bioproducts introduced (textiles, biochemiclas,
bioplastics, new wooden products for buildings,…etc.)
▪ They will not all use roundwood as such, but instead forest
residues, bark, sawchips, pulping side streams (e.g. lignin), etc.
▪ Big question mark is what happens to fuel wood that accounts
about half of the world roundwood production?
▪ Also, to what extent wood supply will increase (e.g., intensive
plantation forests, Russia)?
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Some illustrative hypothetical “what-if” scenarios
1: If world communication paper demand declines
as in this century, its production would need 84 m.
m3 less roundwood in 2050
2. Assume Africa, Brazil, China, India and Indonesia
were able to cut their fuel wood consumption by
30% by 2050, because improvement in technological
efficiency (better stoves) and moving to alternative
energy forms (solar, wind, natural gas, etc.)
> 400 million m3 less roundwood would be needed
> 614 – 84 – 400 = 130
3. Russian harvest intensity is about 30%, in the
EU it is about 65%. In FAO Russian Outlook study
(2012) innovation scenario, Russian wood
production will increase from current level of
218 m. m3 to 300 m. m3 by 2030 > 82 m. m3
4. World intensive plantation forest area is 55
m. ha (FAO 2020). According to projections
(Indufor 2012), this could grow to around 90 m.
ha. by 2050. In line, roundwood production
could grow also by over 150 m. m3
World roundwood net demand increase
would be by 2050 = 130 m. m3
World roundwood supply would increase from
only these 2 sources by 2050 = 230 m. m3

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Thus, world roundwood resources are not necessarily a bottleneck for
circular bioeconomy development, but…
▪ Need new innovative and more resource efficient use of
roundwood to produce bioproducts, which help to
reduce the use of fossil raw materials
▪ Impose and monitor environmental sustainability of
harvests > should not compromise biodiversity and
forest carbon sink targets > build synergies
▪ Most immediate means for a sustainable future is
reducing consumption, whenever possible

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“We need to understand nature, our
natural capital, as the basis for a new
prosperity. A prosperity that needs to be
based on renewable materials and
energy, but also on a new and
synergistic relationship between
economy and ecology, bioeconomy and
biodiversity, rural and urban areas.”
Hetemäki, L., Palahi, M. & Nasi, R. 2020.
Seeing the wood in the forests.
Knowledge to Action no.1, European Forest Institute.

10. Thank you!
Lauri Hetemäki
lauri.hetemaki@efi.int
FORBIO project on Twitter
@FORBIOproject
Erkki Oksanen, Luke
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