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CCAFS: An Overview,[object Object]
Message 1:,[object Object],In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.,[object Object]
The concentration of GHGsisrising,[object Object],Long-termimplications,[object Object],for the climate and ,[object Object],forcropsuitability,[object Object]
 Climate baselines and variability are rising,[object Object],Annual temperature trends, 1901 a 2005.  In °C per century,[object Object]
Cropsuitabilityischanging,[object Object],Averageprojectedchange in suitabilityfor 50 crops, to 2050,[object Object]
Food demands will rise,[object Object],In order to meet global demands, we will need,[object Object],60-70% ,[object Object],more food ,[object Object],by 2050.,[object Object]
“Unchecked climate change will result in a ,[object Object],20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.,[object Object],-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS,[object Object]
Message 2:,[object Object],With new challenges also come ,[object Object],new opportunities.,[object Object]
Ecosystem valuation,[object Object],Average price in voluntary ,[object Object],carbon markets ($/tCO2e),[object Object],2006,[object Object],2007,[object Object],2008,[object Object],Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system,[object Object]
Genetic improvement,[object Object],We can determine the most effective genetic improvement strategyfor each region, and then develop seeds with the appropriate cold, heat, drought, or waterlogging resistance,[object Object],Map showing strategies for adapting beans.,[object Object]
Message 3:,[object Object],CCAFS aims to tap into those opportunities.,[object Object]
CCAFS: the partnership,[object Object],The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) andtheEarth System Science Partnership (ESSP). ,[object Object]
The CCAFS Team:,[object Object],Who’s leading the research?,[object Object],T1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis, CIAT; and Andy Challinor, Univ. of Leeds,[object Object],Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji,[object Object],T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],Theme Leader: Jim Hansen,[object Object],Science Officer: Kevin Coffey,[object Object],T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation,[object Object],Theme Leader: LiniWollenberg,[object Object],Science Officer: Michael Misiko,[object Object],T4: Integration for ,[object Object],Decision Making,[object Object],Theme Leader: Phil Thornton,[object Object],Science Officer: Wiebke Chaudhury,[object Object]
The CCAFS Team:,[object Object],Who’s coordinating the effort?,[object Object],CCAFS Director and Heads,[object Object],Director: Bruce Campbell,[object Object],Head of Research: Sonja Vermeulen,[object Object],Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann,[object Object],Program & Comm. Support,[object Object],Program Manager: MishaWolsgaard-Iversen,[object Object],Events & Program Support Consultant: RatihSeptivita,[object Object],Communications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu,[object Object]
CCAFS ,[object Object],Objectives,[object Object],Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.,[object Object],Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.,[object Object]
The CGIAR Research Centers,[object Object],Where is the research being done? ,[object Object],       >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices,[object Object]
The Three Focus Regions,[object Object],Indo-Gangetic Plains:,[object Object],Parts of India,  Bangladesh, Nepal,[object Object],Regional director:,[object Object],Pramod Aggarwal,[object Object],West Africa:,[object Object],Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana,  and Niger,[object Object],Regional director:,[object Object],Robert Zougmoré,[object Object],East Africa:,[object Object],Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia,[object Object],Regional director:,[object Object],James Kinyangi,[object Object]
REGION: West Africa,[object Object],Population,[object Object],High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.,[object Object],Current Climate,[object Object],The climate is characterized by a strong latitudinal rainfall gradient and dramatic fluctuations in precipitation over multi-decadal time scales. The region also suffers from widespread land degradation, particularly in the semi-arid Sudano-Sahelian zone. Water use and population growth are resulting in increasing stresses on existing water sources.,[object Object],Future Climate,[object Object],Due to the extreme variability in the rainfall regime, predictions for rainfall vary for the region. Nevertheless, most models agree that the Sahel will experience shorter growing periods. ,[object Object]
REGION: East Africa,[object Object],Population,[object Object],High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.,[object Object],Current Climate,[object Object],The region exhibits strong heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-ecosystems, livelihoods, and environmental challenges. Rainfall is reasonably predictable, and temperature gradients are associated with elevation. ,[object Object],Future Climate,[object Object],Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress. ,[object Object]
REGION: Indo-Gangetic Plains,[object Object],Population,[object Object],“The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region” (IPCC 2007). Because of its intensified, irrigated agricultural production systems, it is the “bread basket” of South Asia. ,[object Object],Current Climate,[object Object],Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the timing and strength of northeast and southwest monsoons, which supply ~80% of the region’s total annual rainfall. The area is prone to droughts (west) and flooding (east).,[object Object],Future Climate,[object Object],There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise. Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation, but the general consensus that the intensity and probability of extreme events will increase. The timing of monsoons may become more variable.,[object Object]
The CCAFS Framework:,[object Object],Research Themes, Outputs, and Impacts,[object Object],Adapting Agriculture to,[object Object],Climate Variability and Change,[object Object],Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:,[object Object],Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation,[object Object],Improved Environmental Health,[object Object],Improved Rural Livelihoods,[object Object],Improved Food Security,[object Object],Trade-offs and Synergies,[object Object],4. Integration for Decision Making,[object Object],[object Object]
Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
Refining Frameworks for Policy AnalysisEnhanced adaptive capacity,[object Object], in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems,[object Object]
THE VISION,[object Object],To adapt farming systems, we need to:,[object Object],[object Object]
  Increase the bar:  develop new ways to increase agricultural potential
  Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national levelProgressive,[object Object],    Adaptation,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],Objective One: ,[object Object],Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates,[object Object],1one,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],Objective One: ,[object Object],Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies,[object Object],1one,[object Object],Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites),[object Object],Agricultural knowledge transfer from NARS, universities and other CRPs,[object Object],Analysis of policies and institutional mechanisms that enable adaptation,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates,[object Object],1one,[object Object],Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies,[object Object],Regional fora to discuss and set priorities ,[object Object],Policies of access for benefit sharing,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity,[object Object],1one,[object Object],Knowledge for enhanced use of germplasm for adaptation,[object Object],On-farm use of diversity to adapt,[object Object],Policies of access for benefit sharing,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform,[object Object],What is it?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge. ,[object Object],It brings together farmers’ realities on the ground and links them with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight the current challenges that need to be tackled to improve climate change resilience and smallholders’ livelihoods.,[object Object],1one,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform,[object Object],1one,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: The Climate  Analogue Tool,[object Object],What is it?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],The climate analogue tool measures of climatic dissimilarity between a projection of future climate at a user-specified location and current climate globally. The tool is designed to identify areas whose climate today appears as a likely analogue to future projected climate for another user-specified location. ,[object Object],The tool will facilitate on-the-ground evaluations of whether adaptation options that appear successful in certain places can be transferred to other areas that may face similar climate conditions in the future. In this way, it promotes knowledge transfer and communal learning.,[object Object],1one,[object Object]
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool,[object Object],1one,[object Object]
THE VISION,[object Object],[object Object]
Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
Improving current climate risk management will reduce  obstacles to making future structural adaptations.Risk			 ,[object Object],Management,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],Objective One:,[object Object],Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) ,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ,[object Object],(Food system level) ,[object Object],2two,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Enhanced climate information and services,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],Objective One:,[object Object],Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) ,[object Object],2two,[object Object],Designed diversification,[object Object],Index-based risk transfer,[object Object],Anticipatory management, aided by forecasts and communication (O3),[object Object],Participatory action research,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ,[object Object],(Food system level) ,[object Object],2two,[object Object],Manage price volatility through trade and storage,[object Object],Post-crisis recovery,[object Object],Food security safety nets,[object Object],Improved early warning systems (O3),[object Object],Platform for coordination,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Enhanced climate information and services,[object Object],services,[object Object],information,[object Object],2two,[object Object],Historic data reconstruction,[object Object],Institutional arrangements,[object Object],Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions,[object Object],Communication processes,[object Object],Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests and diseases,[object Object],Capacity  building for providers,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: Participatory action research,[object Object],What is it?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],A network of participatory pilot demonstrations will engage rural communities and local stakeholders at benchmark sites to identify, develop and evaluate suites of promising risk management interventions focusing on: (a) designed diversification, (b) index-based financial risk transfer, and (c) adaptive management. ,[object Object],Research and informed outside intervention can improve livelihoods where external change: (a) is too rapid for trial-and-error strategies to respond to; (b) have undermined traditional livelihood strategies; or (c) has created new opportunities that require technical support or market development. ,[object Object],2two,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance,[object Object],What CCAFS outputs?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],[object Object]
 Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis riskBasing payouts on an objectively-measured index overcomes problems with moral hazard, adverse selection and the high cost of verifying losses. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks, while rural financial services are protected from widespread default.,[object Object],2two,[object Object],In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses. ,[object Object]
Managing Climate Risk,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: Improved crop forecasts,[object Object],What CCAFS outputs?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],[object Object]
  Analysis of impact of food security early response rules on logistical and livelihood costs
  Analysis of impact of trade informed by early warning on price volatilityRural communities avoid the need to divest productive assets before assistance arrives. Stabilized supplies and prices reduce the need for counterproductive coping strategies by net consumers,[object Object],2two,[object Object]
CHALLENGES,[object Object],Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes,[object Object],Long-term: Conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation,[object Object],Mitigation,[object Object]
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation ,[object Object],Objective One: ,[object Object],Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Develop incentives and institutional arrangements,[object Object],3three,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications,[object Object]
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation ,[object Object],Objective One:,[object Object],Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways,[object Object],3three,[object Object], Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: ,[object Object],food production and adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation,[object Object],Assess impacts of current policies,[object Object],Develop coherent visions to guide agricultural development,[object Object]
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation ,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Develop incentives and institutional arrangements,[object Object],3three,[object Object],Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on where mitigation success is most likely (SE Asia, Latin America) ,[object Object],Assess potential non-market incentives and institutional arrangements for poor,[object Object],Assess impacts ,[object Object],on marginalized groups and women,[object Object]
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation ,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications,[object Object],3three,[object Object],Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms for multiple sectors.,[object Object],Develop cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. Towards that end, establish and improve data and meteorological standards. ,[object Object], Assess impacts of all GHG, through their  lifecycles.,[object Object]
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation ,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: Determining mitigation potential,[object Object],What CCAFS outputs?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],Using  modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies  consistent with maintaining food supply.,[object Object],Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.,[object Object],3three,[object Object]
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation ,[object Object],What CCAFS outputs?,[object Object],Why is it useful?,[object Object],>> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural mitigation,[object Object],Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts.,[object Object],Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.,[object Object],3three,[object Object]
VISION,[object Object],[object Object]
 Synthesize lessons learned
Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
Build partners’ capacityIntegration,[object Object]
T2: Risk ,[object Object],Management,[object Object],T3: Pro-poor,[object Object],   Mitigation,[object Object],Integration for Decision Making,[object Object],4four,[object Object],Rural Livelihoods,[object Object],Environment,[object Object],Food Security,[object Object]
Integration for Decision Making,[object Object],Objective One: ,[object Object],Linking knowledge with action,[object Object],Objective Two: ,[object Object],Data and tools for analysis and planning,[object Object],4four,[object Object],Objective Three: ,[object Object],Refining frameworks for policy analysis,[object Object]
Integration for Decision Making,[object Object],Objective One:,[object Object],Linking knowledge with action,[object Object],4four,[object Object],Regional scenarios,[object Object],Vulnerability assessments,[object Object],Approaches to decision making informed by good science,[object Object],Approaches to benefit women and other vulnerable, socially disadvantaged groups,[object Object]

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Mais de CIAT (20)

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Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS CIAT

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase agricultural potential
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. Analysis of impact of food security early response rules on logistical and livelihood costs
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 57. Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
  • 58. Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66. National meteorological services
  • 67.
  • 68. Civil society, NGOs, and development organizations
  • 69. Private sector
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75. 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 82. Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy
  • 83.

Notas do Editor

  1. Cambiosobservados de la tendencia
  2. Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  3. Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?