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Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
International Food Policy Research Institute
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
 Challenges
• Population Growth
• Income growth
and changing diets
•...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Global Population (millions) Global GDP (billion USD)
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Source: IMPACT 3.2 November 2015
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Climate change is both a present and future challenge
• Agriculture...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Challenges and Opportunities
• Agriculture sector not only effected by
climate change but ...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Average temperature increase may be gradual, but will still require...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Climate smart technologies have significant potential to mitigate
e...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Changing mean annual precipitation, as well as the variance in
prec...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Challenges and Opportunities
Current areas of water scarcity
Precipitation change in 2050 ...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Challenges and Opportunities
• Higher temperaturesandchanging precipitationpatterns
maylea...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Less water + more demand = need for increased irrigation efficiency...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Extreme events like droughts, floods, and hurricanes already occur
...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Natural environmental patterns like El Niño could be altered
• Lead...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Source: Iizumi et al 2014
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• World is a complicated and interconnected place
• Small changes acr...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Climate change may change the distribution of human diseases
(malar...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Food security is made up of 4 components:
– Food supply
– Access to...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
• Challenges posed by climate change are significant
• Technologies e...
Agriculture and Climate Change:
Potential Challenges
Thank you
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
d.mason-dcroz@cigar.org
Mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges
Mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges
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Mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges

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Presentation for the International Grains Forum (www.igc.int/en/about/aboutus-pressrelease.aspx, www.igcargentina.com/eng/index.html)
https://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2015/12/20/to-latin-america-for-global-connections

Publicada em: Governo e ONGs
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Mason d'croz (dec 2015) igf - agriculture and climate change, potential challenges

  1. 1. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Daniel Mason-D’Croz International Food Policy Research Institute
  2. 2. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges  Challenges • Population Growth • Income growth and changing diets • Greater competition for resources • Climate change  Growing threats to: • Land • Water • Environmental preservation • Biodiversity Higher food prices
  3. 3. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Global Population (millions) Global GDP (billion USD)
  4. 4. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Source: IMPACT 3.2 November 2015
  5. 5. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Climate change is both a present and future challenge • Agriculture sector will be impacted by climate change in many ways – Increasing temperatures – Altered weather patterns – Decreasing snow-pack will challenge water management – Changing frequency and magnitude of extreme events – Glacier melt leading to raising sea levels – Acidification of oceans will threaten many aquatic species
  6. 6. Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities • Agriculture sector not only effected by climate change but also contributes to it • Increasing number of animals and demand for crop area may increase GHG emission contributions from agriculture Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer. 2015. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
  7. 7. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Average temperature increase may be gradual, but will still require adaptation – Changing planting calendars – Some crops are already threatened by heat stress, will be stressed even more – Adapting the cropping mix (maize moving northwards) – New heat tolerant varieties could be beneficial, but require time to develop and implement – Warmer temperatures will have major consequences for pest management
  8. 8. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges
  9. 9. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Climate smart technologies have significant potential to mitigate effects of climate change • Drought and heat tolerant varieties could help mitigate negative effects of climate change • Integrated pest management could help manage changing impacts from pests and diseases
  10. 10. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.
  11. 11. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Changing mean annual precipitation, as well as the variance in precipitation will increase concerns of water scarcity – Many places are already suffering water shortages today – Increased prevalence of droughts could exacerbate this – High rainfall events can be just as challenging from a water management perspective leading to floods and landslides
  12. 12. Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities Current areas of water scarcity Precipitation change in 2050 (GFDL RCP 8.5) Precipitation change in 2050 (HGEM RCP 8.5) Source: IWMI 2006 Source: Robinson et al 2015
  13. 13. Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities • Higher temperaturesandchanging precipitationpatterns mayleadto diminishing snowpack • Increased variationofrainfallcomplicateswater managementcould leadtoincreasing waterscarcity • Irrigationforagricultureis the largestsingle wateruse, • 70%of globalwaterwithdrawal,and90%global water consumption • Irrigatedareasaccountforless than20%of global cropland,butcontribute~40% ofcereal productionSource: Mote and Sharp, 2015
  14. 14. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Less water + more demand = need for increased irrigation efficiency (Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation) 28% less water applied  22% more water productivity Improved Irrigation Technologies  Increased water savings  Increased water productivity Source: Rosegrant et al 2014.
  15. 15. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Extreme events like droughts, floods, and hurricanes already occur • Climate change is likely to change the frequency of these events, and potentially their magnitudes • Can have very big impacts on infrastructure, and temporal access to markets, leading to price spikes – Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Food prices increased by 5%, and poverty rates increased by >1% (NEDA 2014) Source: Bender et al 2010
  16. 16. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Natural environmental patterns like El Niño could be altered • Leading to significant yield impacts for cereals key sources for global calorie supply Source: Liberto 2014
  17. 17. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Source: Iizumi et al 2014
  18. 18. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • World is a complicated and interconnected place • Small changes across multiple dimensions can be force multiplying, leading to unexpected non-linear effects. • Droughts can lead to plagues – Coffee rust after droughts • Lloyd’s Risk Report already considering potential effect of multiple extreme events happening simultaneously
  19. 19. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Climate change may change the distribution of human diseases (malaria, dengue, etc.) – Human pandemics can destabilize regions including agriculture • Increasing challenges to cope may lead to more conflict over resources, which in turn could lead to larger human migrations • Transportation system and agricultural markets are vulnerable – Rising sea level may lead to more damage to ports – Higher temperatures lead to deterioration of roads and rail – Greater evaporation and less precipitation can make river and lake transportation more costly
  20. 20. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Food security is made up of 4 components: – Food supply – Access to food – Stability of food system – Quality of food (safety, and nutrition) • Climate change threatens global food security across all 4 components
  21. 21. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges • Challenges posed by climate change are significant • Technologies exist today to help mitigate and adapt • Not all regions will be impacted equally by climate change. Some will benefit while others will be harmed • Trade will be critical in smoothing out these asymmetric effects • Disruptions to agricultural markets can threaten trade and access of food, increasing food insecurity globally
  22. 22. Agriculture and Climate Change: Potential Challenges Thank you Daniel Mason-D’Croz d.mason-dcroz@cigar.org

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