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Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)

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http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/

Publicada em: Economia e finanças
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Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)

  1. 1. Climate Shocks and Adjustment for Selected Crops The IMPACT 3 Model Team: Sherman Robinson, Daniel Mason D’Croz, Shahnila Islam, Mark Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe London, February, 2015
  2. 2. • Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production • Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables • Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed • Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods • Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils • Half of growth in grain demand will be for Livestock feed • Increased pressure on land and water Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security 2
  3. 3. • Supply drivers – Climate change – Water and land scarcity – Investment in infrastructure – Investment in agricultural research – Policy Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security 3
  4. 4. The IMPACT Global Simulation Model • International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade • Global partial equilibrium model –Multimarket model –Water models –Crop models –Livestock model –Malnutrition model 4
  5. 5. What is new in IMPACT 3? • Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year) – 58 agricultural commodities • Prices and markets – Three markets: farm gate, national, international – Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities • Land Allocation to crops • Activity-commodity value chain framework • New Water Models: hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crops • Modularity of the IMPACT model “system” 5
  6. 6. 6 IMPACT 3 Geography 159 • Countries 154 • Water Basins 320 • Food Production Units
  7. 7. IMPACT 3 Model System 7
  8. 8. IMPACT – A Suite of Linked Models • Modularity: “a la carte” – Use only the modules you need – Modules can be run in “standalone” mode as separate models (e.g., water models) • Linking Modules – Model system is driven by core multimarket economic model (IMPACT 3) – Standardize data transfer between modules • Information flows: dynamic interaction with core model 8
  9. 9. Marketing Margin 9 Markets and Prices Farm: Producer Price • Price at Farm/Factory Gate and market • 𝑃𝑃 × 1 + 𝑀𝑀 = 1 + 𝑃𝑆𝐸 × 𝑃𝐶 Market: Consumer Price • Commodity prices consumers face • 𝑃𝑀 = 𝑃𝑊 × 1 + 𝑡𝑚 × 1 + 𝑀𝑀 • 𝑃𝐶 = 𝑃𝑀 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠 Port: World Price Marketing Margin Trade Regime
  10. 10. • Commodities can be globally traded or non- traded • This option can be set exogenously – E.g. sugar beets • Or endogenously through the following inequality 10 Tradability in IMPACT 3 PC Export Price Import Price 𝑃𝐸 = 𝑃𝑊 × 1 − 𝑡𝑒 × (1 − 𝑀𝑀𝑒) 𝑃𝑀 = 𝑃𝑊 × 1 + 𝑡𝑚 × (1 + 𝑀𝑀 𝑚) < <PE PM
  11. 11. Water Models in IMPACT • Global hydrological model (GHM) assesses water availability • IMPACT Water Simulation Model (IWSM) optimizes water supply according to demands – Monthly time step – Domestic, industrial (linked to GDP/population) – Livestock – Environment – Irrigation • Water stress model – Delivers crop yields to the IMPACT food module 11
  12. 12. Land Allocation to Crops • Land types: irrigated and rainfed land • Demand for land by crop is a function of commodity price and shadow price of land • Total supplies of irrigated and rainfed land are fixed in each region (FPU) • Shadow price of land varies to equate supply and demand for land by type and region – Solution determines allocation of land to crops and equilibrium shadow price 12
  13. 13. Value Chains: Activity-Commodity • Commodities are: – Produced (activities) – Traded (commodities) – Consumed – Can be endogenous or exogenous • Maize has endogenous production and demand • Oilseeds have endogenous production and both endogenous and exogenous demand (biofuels) • Fertilizers is an exogenous commodity with fixed price 13
  14. 14. Example: Oilseed Activity-Commodity Value Chain 14 Activity • Soybean Farm (jsoyb) • Demands land, fertilizer, labor Activity Output • Soybean Commodity (csoyb) Activity • Soybean Processing (jsbol) • Demands soybeans (csoyb) at market price Processed Commodities • Soybean Oil (csbol) • Soybean Meal (csbml)
  15. 15. Baseline Model Results • Core drivers: population, GDP, land • Changes in technology • Climate change: – Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change – Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways 15
  16. 16. 16 Drivers – Population, GDP, and Land
  17. 17. Sources of Technology Change • Underlying Intrinsic Productivity Rates (IPRs) – Exogenous trends in yields • Climate Change: – Water: Hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crop yields – Temperature: Crop Models (DSSAT) • Market Effects – Changes in prices affect farmer behavior and yields (e.g. fertilizer use) 17
  18. 18. Inflation-adjusted prices for corn, wheat and soybean (1912-2011) 18
  19. 19. Climate Change - Base Suite • NoCC – Historical climate • Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs), IPCC - AR5, with one Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – IPSL: – HADLEY: – MIROC: – GFDL: 19
  20. 20. 20 What about climate change? Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014 Global annual average surface temperature
  21. 21. World Prices over time (NoCC, indexed to 2010) Source: IMPACT 3 (2014) 21
  22. 22. 2050 World Prices under Climate Change (% difference from NoCC) 22 Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
  23. 23. Global Yields over time (NoCC, indexed to 2010) 23 Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
  24. 24. 24 Historical climate change impacts on yields 1960-2013 Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014
  25. 25. 2050 Global yield under Climate Change (% diff from NoCC) 25 Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
  26. 26. 2050 Wheat Yields: Climate Change Effects for Top 10 Wheat Producers 26Source: IMPACT 3 (2014)
  27. 27. Thank you S.Robinson@cgiar.org 27
  28. 28. 28 Production Shock Scenario Specification Scenario Crop Region Shock Multi-Crop Shock Wheat North America (NAM) Europe, Russia, Western Asia 20% 20% Maize North America Europe, Russia, Western Asia Brazil, Argentina 25% 20% 20% Soybeans North America Brazil, Argentina 12% 10% Maize Shock Maize USA China 30% 40% Rice Shock Rice China South Asia 25% 10% Wheat Shock Wheat Eastern Africa Western Asia Central Asia North America 40% 50% 60% 50%
  29. 29. World Prices (2005=1) 63% increase from ref 20% decrease from ref 34% increase from ref 8% decrease from ref 42% increase from ref 12% decrease from ref 33% increase from ref 6% decrease from ref 6% increase from ref 2% decrease from ref 3% increase from ref 1% decrease from ref
  30. 30. Changes in Production by Scenario 30 Regions Shocked
  31. 31. Changes in Production by Scenario 31
  32. 32. Changes in Production by Scenario 32
  33. 33. Changes in Production by Scenario 33
  34. 34. Changes in Trade by Scenario 34 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 EAP EUR LAC MEN NAM SAS EAP EUR LAC MEN NAM SAS EAP EUR LAC MEN NAM SAS Maize Wheat Soybean Multi-Crop Scenario Net Trade by Region (million mt) Reference MultiCrop1 MultiCrop2
  35. 35. Changes in Trade by Scenario 35
  36. 36. Changes in Trade by Scenario 36
  37. 37. Changes in Trade by Scenario 37

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