1.
CRFB.org

2.
CRFB.org
Vice President Biden Has a Large and Detailed Agenda
JoeBiden.com features 48 plans with more than 800
policy proposals. The Biden Plan would:
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▪ Expand access and affordability to child care, pre-school, K-12
education, and higher education
▪ Increase spending on health care and eldercare
▪ Invest in infrastructure, research, and green technologies
▪ Increase Social Security and SSI benefits
▪ Increase taxes, especially on corporations, investors, and high-
income households
▪ Reduce prescription drug costs
▪ End engagements in Afghanistan and the Middle East

3.
CRFB.org
President Trump Has Ideas As Well
DonaldJTrump.com includes a 54-bullet point agenda for
his second term well as a ‘Platinum Plan’ for Black
Americans. The Trump plan would:
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▪ Cut Taxes for Individuals
▪ Create tax incentives for domestic investment and manufacturing
▪ Invest in infrastructure
▪ Expand space travel
▪ Spend more on the military and veterans
▪ Reduce prescription drug costs
▪ End engagements in Afghanistan and the Middle East

4.
CRFB.org
Debt Is Headed To a Record High in the Next Term
109%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Percent of GDP

5.
CRFB.org
Both Candidates Will Grow the Debt More
Note: Dots represent deficit impact excluding one-time policies
$0.70
$4.95
$6.85
-$0.15
$5.60
$8.30
-$3
-$2
-$1
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Low-Cost Central High-Cost
Trump Biden
Trillions

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CRFB.org
Here’s How they Compare in our Central Estimate
Trump Biden
Child Care and Education -$0.15 trillion -$2.70 trillion
Health Care and Long-Term Care $0.15 trillion -$2.05 trillion
Social Security, SSI, and Retirement n/a -$1.15 trillion
Infrastructure & Other Domestic Spending -$2.70 trillion -$4.45 trillion
National Security & Immigration -$0.30 trillion $0.75 trillion
Tax Policy -$1.70 trillion $4.30 trillion
Interest -$0.25 trillion -$0.30 trillion
Net Deficit Effect -$4.95 trillion -$5.60 trillion
Memo: Low-to High Estimates -$0.70 to -$6.85 trillion $0.15 to -$8.30 trillion
Memo: Permanent Policies Only -$2.45 trillion -$2.35 trillion
Trillions

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CRFB.org
Results May Differ Based on Assumptions
Trump Biden
Low High Low High
Child Care & Education -$0.05 trillion -$0.20 trillion -$2.40 trillion -$3.05 trillion
Health Care & Long-Term Care $1.00 trillion $0.15 trillion -$1.00 trillion -$2.40 trillion
Social Security, SSI, Retirement n/a n/a -$0.95 trillion -$1.30 trillion
Infrastructure & Domestic Spending -$0.75 trillion -$2.95 trillion -$3.00 trillion -$5.50 trillion
National Security & Immigration $0.55 trillion -$0.55 trillion $0.95 trillion $0.70 trillion
Tax Policy -$1.40 trillion -$2.95 trillion $6.60 trillion $3.65 trillion
Interest -$0.05 trillion -$0.35 trillion -$0.05 trillion -$0.40 trillion
Net Deficit Effect -$0.70 trillion -$6.85 trillion $0.15 trillion -$8.30 trillion
Memo: Permanent Policies Only -$0.20 trillion -$4.10 trillion $2.40 trillion -$4.05 trillion
Trillions

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CRFB.org
The Trump Plan Calls for More Spending and Tax Cuts
Low Central High
Child Care and Education
Provide Universal School Choice -$50 -$50 -$50
Increase Child Care Credits and Access to Preschool $0 -$100 -$150
Subtotal -$50 -$150 -$200
Health Care
Cut Prescription Drug Prices and End Surprise Billing $150 $150 $150
Reform Health Care System $850 $0 $0
Subtotal $1,000 $150 $150
Other Domestic Spending
Increase Infrastructure Spending -$300 -$2,000 -$2,000
Expand U.S. Presence in Outer Space -$400 -$650 -$900
Support Black-Owned Businesses and Job Training -$50 -$50 -$50
Subtotal -$750 -$2,700 -$2,950
National Security and Immigration
Support a Strong National Defense -$200 -$500 -$650
Stop Endless Wars and Bring Troops Home $750 $550 $500
Increase Spending on Veterans -$100 -$400 -$400
Address Illegal Immigration $100 $50 $0
Subtotal $550 -$300 -$550
Billions

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CRFB.org
The Trump Plan Calls for More Spending and Tax Cuts
Low Central High
Tax Policy
Reduce Individual Taxes -$1,250 -$1,250 -$2,450
Enact “Made in America” and Insourcing Tax Breaks $0 -$50 -$100
Expand Opportunity Zones -$50 -$50 -$50
Allow 100% Expensing for Essential Industries -$100 -$350 -$350
Subtotal -$1,400 -$1,700 -$2,950
Net Interest -$50 -$250 -$350
Total Deficit Impact -$700 -$4,950 -$6,850
Gross Cost of Initiatives -$2,500 -$5,450 -$7,150
Gross Savings from Agenda $1,850 $750 $650
Deficit Impact, Excluding One-Time Policies -$200 -$2,450 -$4,100
Billions

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CRFB.org
The Biden Plan Calls for More Spending and More Taxes
Low Central High
Child Care and Education
Support Child Care and Universal Pre-K -$300 -$500 -$750
Increase K-12 Education Funding -$600 -$600 -$600
Increase Higher Education Spending -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700
Subtotal -$2,400 -$2,700 -$3,050
Health Care and Long-Term Care
Expand Health Insurance Coverage -$1,700 -$1,900 -$2,100
Support Elder Care and Long-Term Care -$600 -$600 -$650
Fund Rural Health, Mental Health, and Opioid Crisis -$300 -$300 -$300
Reduce Health Costs $1,300 $450 $350
Revenue Feedback from Health Plan $300 $300 $300
Subtotal -$1,000 -$2,050 -$2,400
Social Security, SSI, and Retirement
Expand Social Security -$400 -$400 -$400
Expand Supplemental Security Income -$550 -$700 -$800
Expand Tax Breaks for Older Americans $0 -$50 -$100
Subtotal -$950 -$1,150 -$1,300
Infrastructure, Environment, Other Domestic Spending
Invest in Green Infrastructure and American Innovation -$2,000 -$3,000 -$4,000
Expand Affordable Housing -$350 -$750 -$750
Provide Universal Paid Leave -$550 -$550 -$550
Other Domestic Spending -$100 -$150 -$200
Subtotal -$3,000 -$4,450 -$5,500
Billions

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CRFB.org
The Biden Plan Calls for More Spending and More Taxes
Low Central High
National Security and Immigration
End Wars in Afghanistan and Middle East $750 $550 $500
Pass Immigration Reform $200 $200 $200
Subtotal $950 $750 $700
Tax Policy
Increase Corporate Taxes $1,950 $1,800 $1,500
Increase Individual and Pass-Through Taxes $2,300 $1,400 $1,200
Increase Social Security Payroll Tax Maximum $1,000 $900 $800
Establish a Financial Risk Fee on Large Banks $350 $100 $100
Improve Tax Compliance $1,000 $100 $50
Subtotal $6,600 $4,300 $3,650
Net Interest -$50 -$300 -$400
Total Deficit Impact $150 -$5,600 -$8,300
Gross Cost of Initiatives -$8,950 -$11,100 -$12,900
Gross Savings from Agenda $9,150 $5,800 $5,000
Deficit Impact, Excluding One-Time Policies $2,400 -$2,350 -$4,050
Billions

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CRFB.org
Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode
109%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Percent of GDP

13.
CRFB.org
Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode
109%
125%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Law
Trump Central
Percent of GDP

14.
CRFB.org
Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode
109%
128%
125%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Law
Biden Central
Trump Central
Percent of GDP

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CRFB.org
Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode
109%
128%
125%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Biden Range
Trump Range
Current Law
Biden Central
Trump Central
Percent of GDP

16.
CRFB.org
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▪ Both candidates would worsen an already dismal fiscal situation
▪ CBO projects deficits will total $13 trillion over the next ten years, and debt will
reach 109% of GDP by the end of 2030. Under our central estimates:
▪ President Trump would add $4.95 trillion and increase debt to 125% of GDP
▪ Vice President Biden would add $5.6 trillion and increase debt to 128% of GDP
▪ Biden’s plan is vast, with over 800 proposals. He would massively increase spending
and offset half the cost through tax increases on corporations and high-earners
▪ Trump’s plan is bullet-pointed and very sparse. He would increase spending
significantly while also cutting taxes
▪ Both candidates support large infrastructure packages, lower drug prices, expanded
tax breaks for child care, and ending the wars in Afghanistan and the middle-east.
▪ The candidates are polar opposites on issues like taxes (Biden’s plan would increase
by $4.3 trillion, Trump’s would reduce by $1.7 trillion) and immigration.
Summary Findings

17.
CRFB.org
You Can Learn More by Reading the Paper
http://www.crfb.org/us-budget-watch-2020